Odds & Ends: Cubs, Strasburg, O’s
Some more links on a slow night in Rumorville:
- A reader points us to a report out of Korea that says two amateurs have been signed out of Korea. CF Kyung-min Na was signed by the Cubs for 725k and is called "the fastest player in Korean high school baseball," while IF Chan-jong Moon was signed by the Astros for 350k.
- According to MASN Sports' Steve Melewski, Orioles head of scouting Joe Jordan sees recent 22nd-round signee Cameron Coffey as "top two rounds" talent and expects him to pitch next season despite recent surgery.
- Count in Ryan Zimmerman as a fan of Stephen Strasburg. He hopes the Nationals sign the fireballer, says Bill Ladson at MLB.com.
- Roch Kubatko at MASN Sports says that Orioles president Andy MacPhail doesn't have much interest in the recently DFA'd Bill Hall.
- Kubatko also reports that the Orioles are set to determine the player to be named from the Rays in the Gregg Zaun deal this coming Monday.
High-Priced Closers
There was a user here that stated roughly "If the closer is the highest-paid player on your team, you're not destined for great things." With that in mind, let's take a look at the highest-priced relievers in the game who were signed to specifically be closers.
Earlier in the decade, a free-agent closer earning $10MM per year looked fairly implausible, but it seems the dominance of players like Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne made teams salivate at the thought of an unhittable late-game fireman. Since then, closers have become increasingly expensive and the results have been mixed. Let's look at what the top contracts have produced for teams, whether they're the highest contracts on the team or not:
- B.J. Ryan – Signed a five-year, $47MM contract in 2005. One brilliant season (2006), one good one (2008), one completely missed season (2007) and now out of a job with another year to go on his contract. The Blue Jays didn't make the playoffs.
- Joe Nathan – Signed a four-year, $47MM contract in 2008. He's been fantastic, putting up sub-2 ERAs and saving 68 games while blowing nine. But the Twins are five games back and look like they'll miss the playoffs this year, as they did last.
- Mariano Rivera – Signed a four-year, $40MM deal in 2001, a two-year, $21MM deal with vesting option in 2005 and a three-year, $45MM contract in 2008. Rivera has been exceptionally brilliant since he was given his big deal in '01, putting up five seasons of sub-2 ERA and 30-save seasons in all but one. Perhaps it's semi-notable that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since they first broke the bank on Rivera.
- Billy Wagner – Signed a four-year, $43MM deal in late 2005. Pitched magnificently for two and a half seasons until he was forced to have elbow surgery last season. Mets made NLCS in 2006.
- Francisco Rodriguez – Signed a three-year, $37MM deal w/$17.5MM option in 2008. Has been good but not great for the Mets this year, putting up a 3.35 ERA and 53/30 K/BB ratio in 51 IP. Mets aren't going to make the playoffs this year, but it can't really be traced to his performance.
- Francisco Cordero – Signed a four-year, $46MM deal in 2007. Cordero was good in 2008 and has been pretty great this season, posting a 1.79 ERA and 37/19 K/BB ratio. He's saved 59 games and blown only seven since last year, but the Reds continue to scuffle.
- Brian Fuentes – Signed a two-year, $17.5MM deal in 2008 with a vesting option for 2011. He's had a bumpy ride this season, but he's saved 32 games in 36 chances. Angels could be set for the playoffs.
- Brad Lidge – Signed a three-year, $37.5MM deal in 2008 w/Phillies. Has been erratic this year, posting a 7.29 ERA and 44/25 K/BB ratio and saving 21 of 28 games after a nearly flawless campaign last season. Phillies look committed to forge on with him, but will it cost them late in the season? We'll see.
- Kerry Wood – Signed a two-year, $20.5MM deal with vesting option for 2011 w/ Indians. Wood has been a frustrating sign, posting a 4.72 ERA and 45/19 K/BB ratio while saving 15 games and blowing five saves. Pretty big disappointment for the Indians, who were looking to contend this year and have now blown up their team.
So what can we learn from these? One prevailing trend is that the small-market teams (Blue Jays, Reds, Indians, Twins) have paid astronomical contracts to closers with few good results. While a closer may put up solid numbers here or there, the middling teams haven't seen their overall performance improve significantly, if at all, by the season's end. When a larger-market team invests, the player has usually rounded out an already robust squad–one with enough depth and cash to recover.
This conclusion has probably been made a few times, but there seems to be a correlation that shouldn't be ignored: Signing a high-priced closer long-term is likely to be an unwise move for a small-market team, as the risk of injury or sudden ineffectiveness is high. A closer isn't likely to be the piece to make a middling team a great one, and money would be well-spent on other resources.
Special thanks to Cot's Contracts.
Odds & Ends: Rays, Royals, Free Agents
Did somebody order these links? No? Oh, well here, you can have them anyway:
- ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider link) gives a rundown of the coming offseason's most attractive starting pitching options and the caveats that come with them.
- The owners of the Rays have purchased a franchise, the Florida Tuskers, in the United Football League, says Joe Smith at the St. Petersburg Times. They'll play in Tropicana Field.
- Sam Mellinger at the Kansas City Star says that fourth-rounder Chris Dwyer and third-rounder Wil Myers have yet to sign with the Royals, despite reports and bonus figures that indicated they had. Regardless, talks are "close."
- Marc Topkin at the St. Petersburg Times says that the Rays are close to signing their third-, fourth-, fifth- and ninth-round picks. No word on the terms just yet.
- According to Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times, Mariners assistant GM Jim Na is resigning.
The Tigers And Magglio Ordonez
Here's what a couple of analysts are saying: R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs says the idea of paying Magglio $18MM next year is extremely unattractive from the Tigers' perspective. Rob Neyer of ESPN.com expects the option to vest, so he says the Tigers have to win the division this year and get reasonably good production from Ordonez next year or someone needs to be fired.
Orioles Sign 22nd Rounder For $1MM
After two months of modest signings, teams have begun awarding some historically big bonuses this week. The agent for Orioles 22rd round selection Cameron Bryan Coffey says his client agreed to sign a deal worth $990k, according to Mark Berman of My FOX in Houston. That's more than what first rounders such as Brett Jackson and Tim Wheeler received.
Odds And Ends: Macha, Harang, Smoltz
This round of links is on me…
- Brewers manager Ken Macha told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy that he manages the same whether others think he has complete job security or not.
- Erik Manning of FanGraphs says it's hard to tell whether Aaron Harang has enough value to offset his contract going forward, but he suggests it's possible.
- Via Twitter, Rob Neyer of ESPN.com has some fun and asks if Yuniesky Betancourt is the worst player in baseball history.
- Over at MLBTR's Facebook page, we have a discussion about John Smoltz on the go.
Royals To Sign Fourth Rounder For $1.5MM
The Royals agreed to sign lefty Chris Dwyer to the biggest bonus ever awarded to a fourth rounder, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. The Royals will sign Dwyer for $1.5MM, which tops the previous mark, set when the Yankees signed Brad Suttle for $1.3MM two years ago. The Royals have shown a willingness to spend recently, going over-slot by $1.25MM for Dwyer and reportedly offering Aaron Crow $3MM.
Callis says Dwyer throws his fastball between 90 and 94 mph and also goes after hitters with a hammer curve.
Doug Davis Claimed By Brewers; Deal Unlikely
1:35pm: Doug Melvin tells Haudricourt that there are no talks between the Brewers and D'Backs right now, though they did speak yesterday.
11:59am: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Brewers aren't confident they can trade for Davis. Rosenthal hears that they have until 12pm CST tomorrow to strike a deal.
THURSDAY, 8:27am: Davis likes the idea of returning to Milwaukee, according to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy. However, after talking with Brewers GM Doug Melvin, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel finds a reunion unlikely. Davis' projected Type B status is apparently driving Arizona's asking price.
At 63.4 points as of August 9th, Davis is in good shape for Type B classification. But is that potential supplemental draft pick worth more than $2.5MM in salary relief? And would the D'Backs really offer Davis arbitration, risking paying him more than $9MM in 2010? They do have the payroll room, and face question marks in the rotation next year after Dan Haren and Max Scherzer.
WEDNESDAY, 9:57pm: Nick Piecoro at the Arizona Republic also gets confirmation that the Brewers claimed Davis, and says that a deal is not likely but cannot be ruled out. He hears the claim was made because the Brewers hold real interest in Davis, not as a tactic to block other teams.
9:25pm: Heyman's sources confirm that it was the Brewers who claimed Davis. The Diamondbacks now can choose to either talk a trade, allow the Brewers to claim Davis or pull him back.
8:50pm: According to SI.com's Jon Heyman (via Twitter), Diamondbacks lefty Doug Davis has been claimed by an unknown team.
Davis has been named quite often in the recent past as a candidate to be moved. Heyman speculates that the claiming team could be the Brewers, as they've been having a "pro-active day." Tom Haudricourt at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel thinks that's a good guess, as the Brewers already made a run at Davis before the deadline. Davis made comments earlier today saying that he doubted the D'backs were planning to negotiate on an extension and called a trade to a contender a "win-win" situation for him.
Tim Dierkes also contributed to this post.
Stark On Smoltz, Reds, Strasburg, Thome
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark adds the Astros to the list of teams interested in John Smoltz. Here are the rest of his rumors:
- The Cubs could look for another bat and another starter, but it depends on how healthy Aramis Ramirez, Ted Lilly and Carlos Zambrano are.
- Stark points out that Aaron Harang's 2011 club option becomes a more expensive $14MM mutual option if he's traded. The Reds haven't seemed willing to take on cash in a trade involving Harang or rotation-mate Bronson Arroyo.
- The Yanks don't appear to have interest in either Reds starter, or John Smoltz, for that matter.
- Don't expect any serious negotiating to occur between the Nationals, Scott Boras and Stephen Strasburg before the last minute. Most execs who Stark surveyed expect Strasburg to sign in the end.
- The Braves could re-sign Adam LaRoche after the season, when the first baseman will hit free agency.
- Jim Thome still impresses scouts and should be able to find work as a DH after the season.
- Some teams doubt Vicente Padilla's character because the Rangers are ready to part with him even though they need pitching.
- Some of Alex Rios' former teammates question the outfielder's work ethic and desire.
- Stark hears that Andy Sonnanstine and Jeff Niemann were claimed on waivers and quickly pulled back by the Rays.
- The Braves made a quick run at Victor Martinez before the Red Sox acquired him, but didn't get very far.
- Though their negotiations with Aaron Crow could theoretically continue into late spring, the Royals may impose a deadline of their own to sign their top pick.
Epstein: Red Sox Pursued Halladay Hard
Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told WEEI that he made the Blue Jays multiple offers for Roy Halladay, but never blew them away. (Here's a transcript from DJ Bean of WEEI.com.)