Free Agent Matchmaker: Braves Need An OF
A look at the remaining 2009 free agents reveals a number of household names still without a job. True, most of these are over the hill veterans, but in many cases they can help contending teams fill roster gaps. Over the next few weeks we'll look at which team/player combinations make sense. Since we're right around the 1/3 mark of the season, now is the time for teams to take chances on these guys. Since they'll probably need at least a few weeks to get into game-playing condition, acting soon would mean having them around the halfway mark.
The 23-23 Braves are lacking in the outfield. Of their Opening Day starters, Jordan Schafer holds the highest OBP at .322. His .301 SLG and .209 BA make his low OBP look even worse. After a hot start Jeff Francoeur has stumbled, and now posts a paltry .629 OPS. Garrett Anderson and his .300 OBP and .322 SLG have been sitting more in favor of Matt Diaz, whose numbers have been more than acceptable in his 93 plate appearances. Still, the Braves could use someone else to shore up the outfield. They could look to a trade, but they might as well scour the free agent market first.
The crop of free agent outfielders have a common problem: lack of mobility. The Braves already have Anderson, so adding another no-glove outfielder who is also a gamble with the bat makes little sense. Maybe Jay Payton could help, but he didn't exactly post sterling statistics as a 35-year-old in 2008. In fact, the Braves would probably be better off just sticking with Diaz-Schafer-Francoeur than signing someone like Payton.
One name on the list sticks out: Jim Edmonds. Yes, he's 39, so his range is going to be limited. In fact, he posted a -14.1 UZR (-23.3 UZR/150) last year as a CF for the Padres and Cubs, so he might only be a help defensively at a corner. But if he can put up even 85 percent of his OPS with the Cubs last year, he'd be a definite upgrade over Francoeur at this point. He could make sense as a replacement if the Braves decide to bench or trade Frenchy.
Yet there is a name which does not appear on the official MLBTR list, and who might not only be willing to play, but would be a mobile outfielder who still has some skills left, even at 42 years old. Yes, that's Kenny Lofton. He's an outside the box pick, mainly because of his age and that he hasn't played in a game since 2007. Way back when the off-season started, Lofton expressed a desire to play in 2009. The downside is that Lofton doesn't just want to play: he wants to get paid. It's doubtful even the desperate Braves will pay Lofton the $6 million he made in '07, even if prorated.
Still, Lofton put up good defensive numbers in 2007 and had a .781 OPS to boot. But if we're talking about the 85 percent production as we did with Edmonds, it doesn't seem as attractive. Even so, he could represent an upgrade over Schafer in center, given his defense and what we'll assume will be league-average offense for a center fielder.
The question facing the Braves right now is of whether checking out these two free agents is more attractive than dealing prospects for outfield replacements. They're in a decent spot with their pitching, and that could become even stronger if Tommy Hanson jumps out of the gate and/or Tim Hudson comes back. With the Mets battling injuries and pitching issues of their own, and with the Phillies doing much the same (more on the pitching front than injuries), the Braves are certainly in the NL East race. They'll certainly look to upgrade in the outfield. Will it be through some gambles on free agents? Or will they reach into their bag o' prospects and try to acquire a younger player?
Joe Pawlikowski is a writer for River Ave. Blues.
Less Than 10% Chance To Make Playoffs
Which teams are most likely to become sellers in the next few months leading up to the July 31st trade deadline? To help determine that, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds report. The report gives the following eleven teams less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs:
- Pirates – 9.46%
- Giants – 8.78%
- Mariners – 6.14%
- Rockies: 4.84%
- Athletics: 4.36%
- White Sox: 4.33%
- Marlins: 3.20%
- Orioles: 2.77%
- Diamondbacks: 2.58%
- Astros: 2.25%
- Nationals: 0.52%
The report likes the 20-28 Indians more than the 21-25 White Sox, because Cleveland has a better run differential. The report gives the Tribe a 14.4% playoff chance. The Padres have pushed themselves up to 11.94%.
As far as pure offensive production this year, your trade candidate leaders from these eleven are Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Brad Hawpe, and Nick Johnson. This year's top pitchers from these non-contenders include Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis. I'm not sure whether Buehrle, Cain, and Rodriguez will actually hit the market.
2010 Options: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals' lone 2010 option is for closer Ryan Franklin. It's a $2.75MM club option with a $250K buyout. Franklin has done a fine job this year, and the option is likely to be exercised.
The Cards have several players who will be eligible for free agency after this season:
- Troy Glaus. We'll learn more about Glaus' prognosis next week; he could be out for the season. The third base picture in 2010 could involve a player the Cardinals acquire this summer, or top prospect Brett Wallace.
- Joel Pineiro. Pineiro owes his success this year to the highest groundball rate in the game. His strikeout rate is terribly low, but so is his walk rate. He's earning $7.5MM this year on a contract signed in a different economic climate.
- Khalil Greene. Greene's having another lost season, dealing with anxiety issues.
- Todd Wellemeyer. He's been unable to duplicate last year's control, and has been dealt a .348 BABIP as well.
- Rick Ankiel. He's been plagued by a sore shoulder and side this year, playing in just 25 games. Colby Rasmus will be entrenched in center field by 2010. Ankiel still has time to become a decent trade chip for the Cards.
- Others: Trever Miller, Jason LaRue.
Yankees Considering Mark DeRosa?
ESPN's Buster Olney suggests that the Yankees are at least considering Mark DeRosa internally:
Imagine DeRosa as a big hunk of tuna, bait on a hook. One of the looming shadows circling below is that of the New York Yankees, who are weighing options and haven't decided whether to take a shot at the versatile veteran.
For his part, DeRosa is trying to put the trade chatter out of his head. The Indians seek Major League-ready pitching for DeRosa. The Mets and Cardinals may be suitors (but not the Brewers). The 34 year-old impending free agent is hitting .266/.333/.446 in 205 plate appearances this year.
Odds & Ends: DeRosa, Bruney, Cooper
Let's kick it off today with some odds and ends.
- RotoAuthority discusses responding to lame trade offers in your fantasy league.
- Reliever Mike MacDougal will join the Nationals tomorrow, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Who knows, he could be closing for them by next week.
- Talking to Fred Mitchell of the Chicago Tribune, Cubs GM Jim Hendry defended the Mark DeRosa trade. Here is my problem with it: it was a financially-motivated deal made by a big-market team, and did not bring back players who could help in 2009.
- According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the White Sox acquired journeyman minor league infielder Anderson Machado from the Pirates for a player to be named later.
- Padres exec Paul DePodesta explains the Jody Gerut for Tony Gwynn Jr. swap. DePodesta's third bullet point, money, had to be the overriding factor given Gwynn's negligible value around the league.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle sees Bobby Crosby as perhaps a more pressing trade situation for the A's than Matt Holliday.
- Dr. James Andrews found no structural damage in Brian Bruney's elbow, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Given the uncertainty, though, a bullpen acquisition would still make sense.
- It looks like the writing is on the wall for Astros manager Cecil Cooper. Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle lists his offenses.
- Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch is skeptical the Cardinals will make a big move.
- Kiley McDaniel of Baseball Prospectus agrees that the Pirates are the favorite for Dominican talent Miguel Angel Sano, and says the Rays, Cubs, A's, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rangers, and Twins are also after him. It's speculated by McDaniel and elsewhere that the Pirates could budget less toward their fourth overall pick in June to compensate for Sano. John Perrotto of Inside Pittsburgh Sports says they like Kyle Gibson, Aaron Crow, Bobby Borchering, and Wil Myers. Tanner Scheppers did not give the Bucs permission to redraft him.
Would Peavy Play In Philly?
Sorry, we don't have the answer yet. MLB.com's Todd Zolecki posed the question to Jake Peavy's agent Barry Axelrod, and Axelrod said:
"I have not discussed Philly with Jake because nobody has asked us to discuss Philly. He has a strong preference to play in the National League. He also wants to play for a contender. Both of those two things play into Philly's hands. The personnel is awesome. If there is one downside, it's the geographical difference for him, given that he has made his family home in the San Diego area."
Axelrod didn't talk about his client pitching in a hitter's park, which has to be a consideration as well. Do the Phillies have the goods to pull off a deal? I think so. Pitchers such as Kyle Drabek, Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Kendrick, and J.A. Happ could be appealing to the Padres to various degrees. And Jason Donald could help the Padres. Talking to David Murphy, Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. admitted he'd like the improve his pitching and add a bench bat.
As far as Peavy to the White Sox, the pitcher's former teammate Scott Linebrink believes that deal is dead (they spoke about a week ago).
Eric Gagne Signs With Can-Am League Team
WEDNESDAY: Talking to Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times, Gagne said he wants to come back to the Majors and would love a Dodgers reunion.
TUESDAY: According to Stephane Cadorette of Canoe.ca, pitcher Eric Gagne signed with the Can-Am independent league Quebec Capitales. He'll need some time to get his arm game-ready. Gagne signed a minor league deal this spring with the Brewers, but they released him on March 8th when an MRI showed shoulder damage. Last we heard, he was going to throw for scouts in April.
Edes On Francoeur, Nick Johnson, Valverde
8:10pm: David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on the Red Sox-Francoeur rumor:
Talked to someone in Braves organization who sort of dismissed the Red Sox rumor. Said he hadn’t heard one thing about them having any serious interest in Francoeur or scouting him recently.
9:01am: Yahoo's Gordon Edes wrote about many different trade scenarios in his column last night.
- Edes seconds Ken Rosenthal's rumor that the Red Sox have been scouting Jeff Francoeur.
- The Nationals have been scouting the Mets' Triple and Double A teams, trying to figure out a possible return for Nick Johnson. Names of interest for Washington: Jon Niese, Mike Antonini, Eddie Kunz, and big leaguer Bobby Parnell. The Red Sox also had interest in Johnson, but not for the price of Michael Bowden. Back to the Mets – Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a list of available players they could consider aside from Johnson, including Jermaine Dye, Ben Francisco, Adam LaRoche, and Eric Hinske.
- Edes likes the fit of Jose Valverde with the Rays, but speculates that the Astros could ask for Wade Davis in return. Six years of Davis would be a huge price to pay for a few months of Valverde plus possible draft picks. Edes also likes Mark DeRosa for Tampa Bay, but they seem well-equipped to handle Akinori Iwamura's injury with internal options.
- Edes names the Phillies, Brewers, Royals, and Twins as possible suitors for Brad Penny. Edes adds that the Phillies "are already making plans for life without Brett Myers" after this season.
- The shortstop market includes Jack Wilson and perhaps John McDonald, but could become more interesting for a team like Boston if the Indians make Jhonny Peralta available.
Nationals Ready To Trade Veterans
Talking to Newsday's Ken Davidoff, Nationals acting GM Mike Rizzo volunteered three trade candidates from his team:
"Nick Johnson, or (Josh) Willingham, or (Austin) Kearns, anyone on our roster, if we can make a good baseball trade and improve ourselves, not only for our present but also for our future — a player that can impact us — we have to make those kinds of trades."
Also, Rizzo rejected the idea that a Johnson-Manny Delcarmen swap was even discussed with the Red Sox.
Rizzo said that in general, the Nationals are seeking young, athletic players with high ceilings in trades. It seems possible Rizzo will deal within the NL East, with the Mets seeking a first baseman and the Braves needing outfielders.
2010 Options: Pittsburgh Pirates
Let's take a look at the 2010 options facing the Pirates.
- Jack Wilson – $8.4MM club option with a $600K buyout. According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Wilson "offered to renegotiate [the option] at a lower rate in exchange for a long-term deal, but there has been no formal response." Wilson is a 31 year-old no-bat all-glove guy. It would probably make more sense for the Bucs to just unload the remaning $5.75MM he has coming.
- Freddy Sanchez – $8MM club option with a $600K buyout. Vests with 635 PAs in 2009 or 600 PAs and an All-Star selection in 2009. Sanchez already has 197 PAs, and it's not inconceivable that he could represent the Pirates in the All-Star game. Barring a major injury, he's a Pirate in 2010. The whole situation has sworn the Pirates off vesting options, according to Kovacevic.
