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Archives for July 2010

Elias Rankings At The Break

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After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through July 11th, 2010.  The Google spreadsheet below has separate tabs for each position group.  The players have about three more months to change these rankings.  You can also go directly to the Google spreadsheet here.

The Brewers’ Asking Price For Corey Hart

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The Brewers asked the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner in exchange for Corey Hart, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Giants GM Brian Sabean is understandably hesitant to deal either pitcher.

The Brewers appear willing to deal Hart, though the right fielder has been red-hot since the middle of May. The Giants, Rays, Padres and Braves are among the teams interested in the 28-year-old. Hart has a .288/.349/.569 line with 21 homers this season after a disappointing 2009 campaign. He earns $4.8MM this year and doesn't become a free agent until after 2011.

Sanchez has a 3.47 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 this season. The Giants control the 27-year-old's rights through 2012. Baseball America ranked Bumgarner second among Giants prospects before the season (after Buster Posey). So far in 2010, the 20-year-old left-hander has started four games and posted a 2.57 ERA.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Brewers, Harper, Ortiz

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Links for Tuesday, as the National League wins an All-Star Game for the first time since Fred McGriff was their cleanup hitter…

Potentially Available Second Basemen

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The Phillies, Red Sox, Rockies and Mets could consider adding a second baseman sometime this month. Here are some of the names that may come up in conversation for those teams, sorted from highest 2010 salary to lowest:

  • Dan Uggla, $7.8MM (free agent after 2011) – The Marlins haven't officially made him available yet, but the Rockies are interested. Uggla produces every season and 2010 is no exception; he has a .285/.369/.483 line.
  • Mark Ellis, $5.5MM ($6MM option for 2011) – There's a good chance the A's keep Ellis, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. If they decide to part with the 33-year-old, his .278/.347/.356 line and reputation as a solid defender should intrigue teams, though his salary is substantial.
  • Ty Wigginton, $3.5MM (free agent after 2010) – Wigginton struggled mightily in June (.594 OPS) and July (.477 OPS), but he does have 14 homers on the season. He has split time between second and first, and can also play third.
  • Ryan Theriot, $2.6MM (free agent after 2012) - We have yet to see a clear indication that the Cubs are shopping Theriot and his .278/.317/.313 line.
  • Kelly Johnson, $2.35MM (free agent after 2011) – Johnson is hitting .276/.374/.497 with 14 homers. Trade rumors have dogged the 28-year-old all season long, partly because he has hit so well and partly because the 34-55 D'Backs have played so poorly.
  • Jose Lopez, $2.3MM ($5MM option for 2011) – Lopez moved to third base this year, but didn't bring his bat along with him. His OPS has dropped 150 points to .610 and he has just six homers.
  • Adam Kennedy, $1.25MM ($2MM option for 2011) – Kennedy and Cristian Guzman are reportedly drawing interest, though that probably has more to do with Kennedy's experience and versatility than his .643 OPS.
  • Jeff Keppinger, $1.15MM (free agent after 2012) – Keppinger, 30, is hitting .284/.335/.385 and has a solid glove, according to UZR. 
  • Jamey Carroll, $1.05MM ($1.8MM in 2011) – Playing both middle infield positions and more for the Dodgers, Carroll has a sparkling .391 OBP.  The Dodgers could move Carroll, but it'd leave them thin in shortstop depth. 
  • Cristian Guzman, Mike Aviles, Alberto Callaspo, Jeff Baker and Andy LaRoche have played some second base this year.
  • Free agent Mark Grudzielanek is available.
  • Rickie Weeks is not available now, but it's not hard to imagine the Brewers changing their stance. 

We looked at potentially available shortstops, third basemen and catchers earlier in the week.

Reunion Seems Unlikely For Pedro, Phillies

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Pedro Martinez has yet to throw off a mound this year, so the chances that he signs with the Phillies for a second consecutive year appear to be dwindling. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. spoke to Pedro’s agent, Fernando Cuza, and determined that things have changed since last year.

“They're different circumstances,” Amaro said, pointing out that Pedro pitched in last year’s World Baseball Classic. “He hasn't gotten on a mound [in 2010]. Only Pedro could say when he'd be ready. I'm sure he knows, but I couldn't tell you."

Amaro didn’t rule out a reunion, but Zolecki suggests the Phillies will not bring Pedro back. J.A. Happ is pitching at Triple A and could return soon, but the Phillies are considering help outside the organization. 

Pedro posted 7.5 K/9 with 1.6 BB/9 last year, along with a 3.63 ERA. He didn’t throw much (just 44.2 innings), but he provided the Phils with a late-season boost. This year, Amaro could turn to Dan Haren (a player the Phillies have interest in) or other potentially available arms like Fausto Carmona and former Phillie Brett Myers.

Braves Interested In Cody Ross

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Add Cody Ross to the list of right-handed hitting outfielders the Braves are eyeing. ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports that the Braves are interested in Ross as they look to improve upon their NL-best record in the second half of the season (Twitter link).

The Braves also have interest in Corey Hart, Josh Willingham and Jose Bautista, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Like those outfielders, Ross is under team control through 2011, but unlike them he is not having a career year and he can play center field.

Ross, who earns $4.45MM in 2010, is hitting .282/.332/.415 this year with seven homers. That's respectable production, but the 29-year-old usually shows more power. He has split time between right and center field and appears to be an average defender (according to UZR).

The Padres, Giants and Red Sox may look to add outfielders before the trade deadline. San Diego and San Francisco prefer players who aren't about to hit free agency, so the Braves will have competition for Ross's services if they are intent on getting more production than Nate McLouth, Melky Cabrera and Matt Diaz can provide.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported yesterday that Ross and Jorge Cantu are available and Olney adds Nate Robertson's name to the list of players the Marlins would deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Johnny Damon

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It seems like just a few weeks ago that Johnny Damon was still a free agent, mulling offers from the Tigers, White Sox and others. He is already halfway through the one-year $8MM deal he signed as Spring Training began, so let's take stock of Damon's value.

He's still getting on base (.362 OBP, 40 walks) and stealing occasionally (seven steals in eight attempts), but his power has dropped off noticeably. Damon cranked 24 homers last year, including 17 at Yankee Stadium, a park that seems perfect for his swing and appears to have boosted his homer total. Five of Damon's 17 Yankee Stadium round-trippers were classified as 'just enough' home runs by HitTrackerOnline (that means they didn't clear the wall by much). Comerica Park is considered a pitchers' park, though all six of Damon's 2010 home runs have come at home.

Damon has played in left and center field this year, but has spent most of his time DHing. He turns 37 this winter, so teams are probably wary of relying on him for too much defense at this point. The market for DHs has not been good in recent years, but Damon remains an above-average hitter. 

The Elias rankings currently place Damon in Type A territory, but just barely. The Tigers will probably not offer arbitration after the season, since $8-9MM would be a lot to pay Damon next year. 

That said, teams other than the Indians and Blue Jays don't have DHs locked up long-term and could look to Damon as a way of getting production on a one-year deal. His former teammates, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz and Hideki Matsui could be among the players competing for DH jobs after the season, but Damon should still draw one-year offers.

Let's not forget that Damon will likely be about three seasons away from the 3,000 hit plateau after this year. That milestone could make it harder for Damon to pass up multi-million dollar offers to play in 2011, even if it means taking a paycut.

Solutions At Short

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The Tigers, Cardinals, Rockies and Padres could improve at short and other teams, like the Yankees, have interest in adding a versatile infielder. Here's a look at some shortstops who may be available between now and the end of the month, sorted according to their 2010 salaries:

  • Cristian Guzman, $8MM (free agent after 2010) – Guzman is hitting .294/.343/.369 and has also appeared at second and in right field. He can hit for average and play average defense (according to UZR), but the Nationals would presumably have to eat salary in a trade because there are cheaper options available. Guzman has ten and five rights, so he can veto any deal.
  • Jason Bartlett, $4MM (free agent after 2011) – Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez can both play short, so the creative Rays could conceivably trade Bartlett. However, he is hitting .231/.314/.335 and UZR suggests his defense is below average, so teams may not consider him an upgrade.
  • Stephen Drew, $3.4MM (free agent after 2012) – Drew boasts a .275/.348/.416 line and plays solid defense at short (+3.2 UZR this year). The Tigers are interested.
  • Alex Gonzalez, $2.75MM ($2.5MM club option for 2011) – Gonzalez leads all shortstops in homers (Home Run Derby finalist Hanley Ramirez is four shy of Gonzalez's 17) and he has been a sound defender for the Blue Jays. The 33-year-old doesn't get on base much (.296 OBP), but he offers more power than any other available shortstop (.497 slugging percentage). The Blue Jays are open to deals.
  • Cesar Izturis, $2.6MM (free agent after 2010) – Izturis is hitting .239/.286/.283, so teams figure to have limited interest in him.
  • Ryan Theriot, $2.6MM (free agent after 2012) – The Cubs could part with Theriot, who is hitting .278/.317/.313. To date, we haven't seen a clear indication that the Cubs are shopping the 30-year-old, though they would presumably listen to offers.
  • Craig Counsell, $2.1MM (free agent after 2010) – Counsell isn't hitting much (.614 OPS), but he can play short, second and third.
  • Jamey Carroll, $1.05MM ($1.8MM in 2011) – His walk rate is at a career high, and he's playing more shortstop than any other position this year.  He could be too valuable a utility player to move.
  • Yunel Escobar, $435K (free agent after 2013) – Teams are calling about Escobar, though the Braves don't appear to be shopping him. The 27-year-old is still cheap and promising, despite his .238/.334/.284 line this season.
  • Ronny Cedeno and Bobby Crosby could be available; Jhonny Peralta played shortstop for years; Alberto Callaspo has some experience at short and Adam Everett is a free agent.

We examined the market for third basemen and catchers earlier in the week.

Red Sox, Royals Discussed DeJesus

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The Red Sox and Royals discussed outfielder David DeJesus about ten days ago and agreed to stay in contact, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  They add, "The Royals are scouting the Red Sox’s minor-league system, but the teams have yet to exchange names."  Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald first reported the Red Sox' interest in DeJesus on June 26th.  The Padres and Giants seem like good fits for the Royals outfielder as well, though their level of interest is not known.

The Red Sox are not likely to deal for DeJesus unless his price drops, a source tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com. The Royals are currently asking for a lot in return for their right fielder.

As Rosenthal and Morosi note, the Red Sox have dealt with injuries to Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron this season and could use the versatile DeJesus.  Given his $6MM club option, the Sox would have DeJesus, Ellsbury, Cameron, and J.D. Drew under control for 2011.  Such depth could prompt a trade of Ellsbury, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  This year, DeJesus is owed an additional $2.12MM.

DeJesus is having a career year so far at age 30, with a .326/.395/.460 line in 370 plate appearances.  He's also playing above-average defense.  The Royals will wait until closer to the July 31st deadline to decide whether to trade DeJesus, reported ESPN's Buster Olney three days ago.

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