Headlines

  • Orioles Agree To 30-Year Lease At Camden Yards
  • Padres Prefer To Retain A.J. Preller, Bob Melvin In 2024
  • Brooks Robinson Passes Away
  • Reds’ Matt McLain Shut Down For Remainder Of 2023 Season
  • Padres Plan To Reduce Payroll To Around $200MM; Front Office Changes Possible
  • Marlins Place Eury Perez On 15-Day Injured List, Select Jeff Lindgren
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2023-24 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Arbitration Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | July 8, 2010 at 11:41am CDT

Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings. 

We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).

It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.

Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:

  • Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
  • David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
  • Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking. 
  • Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
  • Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.

And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.

  • John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
  • Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
  • Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
  • Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
  • Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
  • Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
  • Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
  • Octavio Dotel –  Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
  • Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.

Share 1 Retweet 4 Send via email0

Uncategorized Aaron Heilman Adam Dunn Cliff Lee Cristian Guzman David DeJesus Derrek Lee Jason Frasor Jayson Werth John Buck Jose Guillen Kevin Millwood Miguel Tejada Mike Lowell Octavio Dotel Scott Downs Ted Lilly

Olney On Dunn, Blue Jays, Uggla, Hart, Cardinals
Main
Phillies Discussing Werth Trades
View Comments (15)

Comments

  1. TheBunk

    13 years ago

    I think Buck is traded at the deadline, there’s no guarantee that he’s a type B in the off season and he’s pulled this first half hot streak before. Now is the time to get value that may not be there at the end of the year. Plus there’s that Arencibia fella in triple A who might need a new challenge…

    Reply
  2. 0bsessions

    13 years ago

    I can’t imagine the Lowell being offered arbitration. It seems to me that it’d be a no-brainer to accept it or retire. If he declines, he’s not going to get more than three or four million (And that’s on the extreme high end) as a free agent and he’ll still likely only be utilized as a bench player. It just seems too risky. Unless Youkilis or Beltre go down right when Lowell comes back from the DL and he proceeds to go on a monumental tear, he might not even actually be able to get a guaranteed contract next year.

    Reply
  3. dc21892

    13 years ago

    As much as I like David Ortiz I would love to see the Red Sox push hard to get Adam Dunn this offseason. I know he doesn’t want to DH but if the offer is sweet enough I don’t see why he wouldn’t take it. The guy can flat out rake and it doesn’t make sense not to go after him.

    Reply
    • johnsilver

      13 years ago

      Here is my problems with Dunn and Boston:

      He’s not going to play a 1B anywhere as close to what they get from Youk, regardless what UZR stats say. He does not have the same range, nor does he have Youk’s hands at the position.

      Dunn as an OF in Boston is even worse. Boston going with the pitching strenght and Dunn at any position playing defense is going to weaken your team on the playing field, even hiding him in LF at fenway is not easy, reading balls coming off the wall is tricky, cue Jim Rice who was pretty bad learning the trade until he got the hang of it to become average at best for a few years and could not see Dunn as an average LF, even without having to read defelcts from rivets in the old LF wall at fenway. Dunn looks like all thumbs as an OF and can not judge flyballs period from what have seen, another Jose Canseco/Reggie Jackson type.

      Dunn playing RF at Fenway is even worse. RF at fenway is one of the harder ones in the game. Strange corner, bad sun, several reasons and you take a look back the past 50 years.. there are no poor RF at fenway for this reason:

      JD Drew, Trot Nixon, Mike Greenwell, Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, Hawk Harrelson, Tony Conigliaro. Whoever plays RF at fenway has to be able to judge flyballs, know how to read balls, play with the crowd right on top of you and have a good arm.

      While Dunn’s bat would be a good fit, the glove is not for what Epstein seems to be going after now. it would shock me to see them sign him.

      Reply
    • johnsilver

      13 years ago

      Here is my problems with Dunn and Boston:

      He’s not going to play a 1B anywhere as close to what they get from Youk, regardless what UZR stats say. He does not have the same range, nor does he have Youk’s hands at the position.

      Dunn as an OF in Boston is even worse. Boston going with the pitching strenght and Dunn at any position playing defense is going to weaken your team on the playing field, even hiding him in LF at fenway is not easy, reading balls coming off the wall is tricky, cue Jim Rice who was pretty bad learning the trade until he got the hang of it to become average at best for a few years and could not see Dunn as an average LF, even without having to read defelcts from rivets in the old LF wall at fenway. Dunn looks like all thumbs as an OF and can not judge flyballs period from what have seen, another Jose Canseco/Reggie Jackson type.

      Dunn playing RF at Fenway is even worse. RF at fenway is one of the harder ones in the game. Strange corner, bad sun, several reasons and you take a look back the past 50 years.. there are no poor RF at fenway for this reason:

      JD Drew, Trot Nixon, Mike Greenwell, Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, Hawk Harrelson, Tony Conigliaro. Whoever plays RF at fenway has to be able to judge flyballs, know how to read balls, play with the crowd right on top of you and have a good arm.

      While Dunn’s bat would be a good fit, the glove is not for what Epstein seems to be going after now. it would shock me to see them sign him.

      Reply
  4. mets73

    13 years ago

    Would Lilly and Dunn both still be considered Type A’s if they were trade to the American League… Is it possible that they become Type B’s when compared to the players in their respective positions in the AL?

    Reply
    • Yankees420

      13 years ago

      Dunn would become a Type B, ~1 point away from being an A, and Lilly would have a ~2 point cushion and still be a Type A.

      Reply
      • mets73

        13 years ago

        Thanks for the info…

        Reply
    • Yankees420

      13 years ago

      Dunn would become a Type B, ~1 point away from being an A, and Lilly would have a ~2 point cushion and still be a Type A.

      Reply
  5. John

    13 years ago

    Type B free agent… Teams do not have to give up picks??? What does that mean? Under what circumstance? PLease explain! Thanks!

    Reply
    • mets73

      13 years ago

      The team losing a Type B gets a Supplemental pick for losing a “quality” player, but the team signing that player does not have to give up any picks.

      Reply
  6. Sniderlover

    13 years ago

    Jays could be HUGE sellers at the deadline with guys like Downs, Frasor, Gregg, Overbay, Buck, Bautista, Gonzalez… maybe even Marcum if some team gives a great package.

    Looking forward to the rebuild!

    Reply
  7. gmblngptchr20

    13 years ago

    Anyone know where Rhodes, Cabrera, Hernandez, Gomes, and Arroyo stand in the rankings?

    Reply
    • Yankees420

      13 years ago

      Gomes: B 65.2, Rhodes: A 73.6, Cabrera: B 70.8, Hernandez: A 73.3, Arroyo: 77.2

      All of this can be found if you click the link that reads “our reversed-engineered Elias rankings”

      Reply
    • Yankees420

      13 years ago

      Gomes: B 65.2, Rhodes: A 73.6, Cabrera: B 70.8, Hernandez: A 73.3, Arroyo: 77.2

      All of this can be found if you click the link that reads “our reversed-engineered Elias rankings”

      Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    Orioles Agree To 30-Year Lease At Camden Yards

    Padres Prefer To Retain A.J. Preller, Bob Melvin In 2024

    Brooks Robinson Passes Away

    Reds’ Matt McLain Shut Down For Remainder Of 2023 Season

    Padres Plan To Reduce Payroll To Around $200MM; Front Office Changes Possible

    Marlins Place Eury Perez On 15-Day Injured List, Select Jeff Lindgren

    Sandy Alcantara Shut Down For Rest Of 2023 Season

    Brandon Lowe To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Kneecap Fracture

    Rays Promote Junior Caminero

    Sean Doolittle Announces Retirement

    Tigers Name Jeff Greenberg General Manager

    Qualifying Offer Value To Land Around $20.5MM

    Shohei Ohtani Undergoes Elbow Surgery

    Marlins Claim Matt Moore From Guardians

    Rays To Announce New Stadium Deal

    Reds Designate Hunter Renfroe For Assignment

    Shohei Ohtani Out For Season With Oblique Strain

    Marcus Stroman To Pitch Out Of Bullpen

    Red Sox Fire Chaim Bloom

    Orioles Select Heston Kjerstad

    Recent

    Orioles Agree To 30-Year Lease At Camden Yards

    AL East Notes: Volpe, Martin, Siri

    Byron Buxton Discusses Postseason Availability, Knee Injury

    Pirates Shut Down Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras For 2023

    Jeff McNeil Diagnosed With Partially Torn UCL; Surgery Not Expected

    NL West Notes: Rockies, Giants, Heyward

    NL Notes: Contreras, Pirates, Santana

    Offseason Outlook Chat Transcript: Pittsburgh Pirates

    Blue Jays’ Jay Jackson Will Be A Free Agent This Winter

    Brewers Designate Brian Anderson, Reinstate Garrett Mitchell From 60-Day Injured List

    ad: 300x250_5_side_mlb

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • Shohei Ohtani Rumors
    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Go Ad-Free
    • 2023-24 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List
    • MLB Player Chats
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • Feeds by Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrowsFOX Sports Engage Network scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version