21 of baseball's 30 teams must make at least one decision prior to tomorrow's deadline for offering arbitration to free agents. The Rays lead with nine eligible Type A or B free agents, six of which are relievers. We'll have predictions and polls later today, but here's a team-by-team look.
- Rays: Grant Balfour (A), Carl Crawford (A), Rafael Soriano (A), Dan Wheeler (A), Joaquin Benoit (B), Randy Choate (B), Brad Hawpe (B), Carlos Pena (B), Chad Qualls (B). Benoit has already signed with the Tigers, so he's a lock for an offer. I think Hawpe, Pena, and Qualls are the three who will not get offers, though I'm on the fence on Wheeler.
- Twins: Matt Guerrier (A), Carl Pavano (A), Jesse Crain (B), Brian Fuentes (B), Orlando Hudson (B), Jon Rauch (B). I think Fuentes is the only one of the six not to get an offer, but it is possible the Twins don't want to risk having some of the other players under contract for 2011.
- Yankees: Derek Jeter (A), Andy Pettitte (A), Mariano Rivera (A), Lance Berkman (B), Javier Vazquez (B), Kerry Wood (B). Jeter is the interesting case here. In Joel Sherman's November 10th article, he wrote that of a dozen executives polled there was a split but the majority thought Jeter would be offered arbitration.
- Blue Jays: Scott Downs (A), Jason Frasor (A), John Buck (B), Kevin Gregg (B), Miguel Olivo (B). I can see all five getting offers, though Frasor may not if the Jays consider him accepting to be a negative outcome. Between offers made last year and the trade for Olivo, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has been aggressive in courting draft picks.
- Padres: Miguel Tejada (A), Kevin Correia (B), David Eckstein (B), Jon Garland (B), Yorvit Torrealba (B). We don't have a history to look at with Jed Hoyer, but I can see Garland and Torrealba getting offers.
- Rangers: Frank Francisco (A), Vladimir Guerrero (A), Cliff Lee (A), Bengie Molina (A). I'm leaning toward only Lee getting an offer, though a case can be made for Francisco.
- Red Sox: Adrian Beltre (A), Victor Martinez (A), Felipe Lopez (B), Jason Varitek (B). It'd be risky to offer arbitration to Varitek, while Beltre and Martinez are locks for offers. Lopez was seemingly acquired entirely for a chance at a supplemental pick, though some doubt he'd turn down an arbitration offer and sign a big league deal elsewhere.
- White Sox: Paul Konerko (A), A.J. Pierzynski (A), Manny Ramirez (A), J.J. Putz (B). Putz is a good bet for an offer; Manny has no chance. Konerko and Pierzynski are borderline cases – the Sox would probably like both players back, but perhaps not at the salaries they could earn by accepting arbitration. Kenny Williams did offer arbitration to a highly paid free agent he did not want after the '08 season with Orlando Cabrera, and after turning down the offer Cabrera didn't sign until March due to the draft pick cost.
- Tigers: Magglio Ordonez (A), Johnny Damon (B), Gerald Laird (B). These three Scott Boras clients are unlikely to receive offers.
- Diamondbacks: Aaron Heilman (B), Adam LaRoche (B). Heilman at $3MM or so wouldn't be the end of the world, but Kevin Towers has many needs to fill and might have other plans for his bullpen. I can also see LaRoche going either way.
- Dodgers: Rod Barajas (B), Scott Podsednik (B). Ned Colletti has not offered arbitration to his free agents in recent years, but the team seems happy with both players and they're operating off small salaries.
- Giants: Aubrey Huff (B), Juan Uribe (B). The Giants will attempt to retain both players, and there's no reason not to offer arbitration.
- Phillies: Jayson Werth (A), Chad Durbin (B). Werth's a lock and Durbin seems likely. The Phillies want to retain Durbin, but the only thing that gives me pause is that they did not offer arbitration to Jamie Moyer after the '08 season.
- Reds: Arthur Rhodes (A), Orlando Cabrera (B). Rhodes should get an offer but the Reds may prefer not to be tied to Cabrera at this point.
- Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa (A), Octavio Dotel (B). De La Rosa will get an offer, but Dotel probably will not.
- Angels: Hideki Matsui (B). I don't expect an offer.
- Braves: Derrek Lee (A). I don't expect an offer.
- Brewers: Trevor Hoffman (B). No chance of an offer.
- Mets: Pedro Feliciano (B). An offer makes sense for the lefty.
- Nationals: Adam Dunn (A). He seems a lock for an offer, though Josh Byrnes and the Diamondbacks chose not to make one to him after the '08 season.
- Orioles: Kevin Millwood (B), Koji Uehara (B). Millwood won't get an offer. Uehara is eligible to be offered arbitration, Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tells me. However, I don't think the Orioles will choose to do so.
If Theo thinks he is getting back V-mart for the future, then don’t offer arbitration to Tek. However, if Theo is not positive on V-mart returning, I’d offer arbitration to Tek. I don’t see anyone better for the team (on the FA market at least).
If your prediction is right and the Rays offer to those first six guys listed and they all sign somewhere else the Rays would get six sandwich picks and four first or second (or maybe lower) picks. They would then have 12 total first two round picks next year, crazy.
all depends on if the team they sign with also signs other Type A’s with a higher value
That’s why “bbxxj” mentioned “or second (or maybe lower).” They wouldn’t get first round picks if the signing team also signs a higher ranked free agent or their first round pick is protected.
Derrek Lee is a Type A free agent.
Didnt Derrek Lee get bumped to a Type A FA?
Yes thanks, just a typo in this post.
Twins will not offer Hudson arb. I believe part of his contract was that the twins couldnt offer arbitration.
That applied only if he was an A.
okay, that makes sense…but they wont offer anyway because of casilla and the money but as a twins fan i would really like to see hudson back
Konerko is a lock to be offered, aj is borderline and I hope the whitesox pass.
What if they project Konerko at something near $15MM for 2011?
HE GONE
LOCK!
Although I seriously doubt the Braves offer Lee arbitration, on the premise that he would accept and they’d have a huge salary problem, why not? Last year they offered it to Soriano, and he accepted it. Then we traded him away for nothing (aka Jesse Chavez) but also payed nothing. Why not offer Lee arbitration, and if he does accept, I’m sure there is someone out there that might trade a bag of balls or something for him, and if he doesn’t accept, they get the picks.
Note: Yes I know Soriano was probably a more desirable free agent than Lee.
I think most years your idea would be a good one. But this year there seems to be more average 1B/DH types available than there are jobs. So if a team knows the Braves have to get rid of him, I could see teams forcing their hand and making them at least eat some salary. Probably not worth the risk with Lee.
1B/DH is a deep position in free agency. I’d rather us not risk it.
Under the circumstances, Lee would make a considerably larger amount of money in arbitration than through free agency, and other teams will not have any desire to pay him. Once he’s offered arbitration, a team can’t take that off the table in the event of a trade, and signing him to a deal that’s considerably less than his projected arbitration rate is highly unlikely.
It’s a completely different case because Soriano wasn’t looking at $10-15MM, an amount that far exceeded his worth.
Lee will probably only make $6-8MM in free agency (could be less), so no one’s going to want him for double that.
-C
I think that is a risk (this is response to both Jake and STL) just offering up a suggestion. The worst that could happen is eating a little salary, and the best is 1st round picks.
But I think it’s a no-brainer that he would accept. He would get more through arbitration for 1 year then he will get for 2 years on the open market. Just doesn’t seem like a strong play for the Braves. It isn’t a bad idea, I just don’t think there is much of a chance it works out in the Braves favor in this case.
I’d offer Frasor arbitration.. his salary isn’t outrageous, and even though its about a 99% chance he accepts, it will be nice to have him returning to the pen…
…He met his wife here and is pretty adamant about wanting to stay in Toronto
and I liked his interviews on the FAN. He’s a funny guy.
White Sox will offer Putz and Paulie – the other two good-bye – Next is Jenks – HE GONE
The Angels not getting one comp pick is depressing.
yeah, but the angels having a protected 1st rounder while pursuing several type A free agents isn’t 🙂
No it isn’t. 🙂
UPDATE! Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun tells me Koji Uehara can be offered arbitration tomorrow if the Orioles so choose. Not that I expect them to.
Why wouldn’t they offer? You don’t expect them to because the FO if cheap, or because it would be a mistake?
Assuming the Yankees offer Derek Jeter arbitration, it seems like it would be in his best interest to accept it. While nobody thinks he’s going to leave the Yankees, he would have a chance to prove that last year was simply an “off year” and sign a longer-term contract next fall. He’s not going anywhere else. But personal pride probably won’t allow that to happen.
I’d bet my house that won’t happen.
Same here.
Your house, not mine, of course. I’m an awful gambler.
Same here.
Your house, not mine, of course. I’m an awful gambler.
Because John Buck signed with the Marlins before the 23rd, don’t the Jays get a supplimental pick anyways?
yes they do, if a team signs them before its pretty much a lock that the team will offer that player arb.
That’s what I figured, but i was mislead with the article. I thought it was about players who will face the decision, not all FA’s in general.
Can someone please explain to me the thought process as to why the Tigers wouldn’t offer arbitration to Maglio?
Probably because he will get 10-15 mil through arb. When in reality, at best he probably will only get a deal similar to Damon’s last year. 2/15 is what I would give Maggs. And the second year is only because I’m a Tiger fan and he did good things for us. Anywhere else he’s getting a 1 yr incentive laden deal.
Why wouldn’t the Giants offer arbitration to both Huff and Uribe? They’re obviously trying to bring them back, but they’re being pursued by other teams so there is a chance the Giants would lose them. Might as well be compensated for losing them.
Re-read the article… “The Giants will attempt to retain both players, and there’s no reason not to offer arbitration.” means that they should be getting offered arbitration.. English is a hard language sometimes, i know…
“English is a hard language sometimes, i know…”
ouch, negative energy
The Rangers should offer arb to Vlad, Frankie, and Lee. Frankie MIGHT accept, but Vlad and Lee won’t. Lee for obvious reasons, and Vlad because he’s looking for at least a 2 year deal right now. Frankie might think he can get a longer deal on the open market and might decline especially given what Joaquin Benoit just got.