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Free Agent Stock Watch: Carl Pavano

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Carl Pavano isn't the best pitcher in the Twins rotation – that honor goes to Francisco Liriano – but he has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the American League this year. Pavano ranks second in the AL in walk rate (1.5 BB/9), third in innings pitched and 14th in ERA (3.52).

He currently projects as a Type A free agent, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Twins offer arbitration, like they did last year. If Pavano accepts, he will return on a one-year deal, presumably for more than the $7MM he makes in 2010. If he declines, the Twins obtain two top picks and the 34-year-old has to fend for himself.

Pavano could try to land a two-year deal on the open market, but teams must be wary of making a multi-year commitment to Pavano given his failed four-year $39.95MM deal with the Yankees. As a result, teams are likely to turn to Ted Lilly or Hiroki Kuroda if they're going to offer more than one year to a mid-thirties starter.

It's possible that some team likes Pavano enough to guarantee him a two-year deal, but his age and injury history suggest he's looking at another one-year contract. As a result, we could very well see a repeat of last offseason when the Twins offered arbitration and Pavano accepted.

Clay Buchholz: Extension Candidate

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If the Red Sox want to extend Clay Buchholz this winter, there's one comparable pitcher they just won't be able to avoid. Whether they like it or not, Jon Lester's five-year $30MM extension will be a model of sorts for any extension discussions with Buchholz. 

Both pitch in Fenway Park against the tough American League East and both authored no-hitters early on in their respective careers. As the table below shows, Buchholz's current career numbers are similar to the ones Lester had when he signed long-term:

Buchholz
Ricky Romero and Yovani Gallardo had comparable numbers at similar stages in their careers and both signed for about $30MM over five years. The Red Sox are no doubt aware of the similarities between Lester and Buchholz and surely realize that locking up Buchholz for five years will cost about $30MM. The team has also committed to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and John Lackey, so they may be reluctant to commit tens of millions more to a starting pitcher.

But if the Red Sox are ready to invest, Buchholz seems interested in striking a deal. Back in May, he told Alex Speier of WEEI.com that he would "love" to sign with the Red Sox long-term. We should find out early in 2011 if Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office want to commit to the right-hander and make a deal.

The Red Sox’ 2011 Rotation

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The Red Sox have perhaps the most recognizable rotation in baseball. Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Tim Wakefield and Daisuke Matsuzaka have won a combined 545 games, two of them have pitched no-hitters, five have made All-Star teams and all six are under team control for 2011.

There are no guarantees for any big league rotation, no matter how well-established, and the Red Sox are no exception. Lackey's first season in Boston has been a difficult one; no American Leaguer has allowed more hits and Lackey's ERA (4.60) is higher than it has been in years. Beckett told WEEI that the Red Sox are in a "pretty frustrating" situation and fans hoping for an ERA better than 6.21 from the right-hander surely agree (Beckett's peripherals, it must be noted, remain strong). Meanwhile, Lester and Buchholz have been tremendous and Matsuzaka and Wakefield have pitched as expected.

Those six pitchers have started all but four Red Sox games this year, but the team may have to rely on a more diverse collection of arms in 2011. That shouldn't be a problem for Boston, because they have a number of younger starters ready or nearly ready to contribute in the major leagues.

First of all, there's Felix Doubront, the 22-year-old left-hander who is now pitching well out of Boston's bullpen. Before the Red Sox called him up, Doubront posted a 2.81 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 as a starter in the upper minors. And though Doubront is a reliever now, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told Alex Speier of WEEI that could change.

"We see him long term as a starter, but like a lot of starting pitchers, the first stage of his big league career might be as a reliever, especially in this organization,” Epstein said.

Another Red Sox reliever, Michael Bowden, climbed the minor league ladder as a starter and could return to the rotation if a need arises. While Bowden has proven himself in the minors, a couple other young starters likely need some more seasoning. Junichi Tazawa is returning from Tommy John surgery, but he should be able to contribute in the majors if he can return to his 2009 form. Casey Kelly, another top prospect, has seen his walk rate and ERA jump at AA, so he will likely need more time in the minors. Another AA starter, Kyle Weiland, has pitched well for Portland and could become a consideration for the Red Sox.

These minor leaguers will, in all likelihood, have to wait their turn. Boston has six major league starters under team control for 2011, so their rotation appears set. Don’t expect the Red Sox to bid on free agent starters like they did last year (Lackey) and the year before (John Smoltz, Brad Penny). Unless they offer Buchholz an extension, the Red Sox probably aren’t going to present any starters with proposals this winter. Even though it’s been a frustrating season for the Red Sox, the organization has a strong group of starters and potential starters for 2011.

Poll: Strasburg Or Chapman

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Aroldis Chapman threw 104 mph tonight in his second – and second dominant – big league appearance. The Cuban lefty struck out 12 batters per nine at Triple A in his pro debut this year and when the Reds promoted him, Chapmania ensued.

It wasn't long ago that Stephen Strasburg was the hard-throwing prospect making headlines and overpowering big leaguers. The Nationals right-hander famously struck out 14 in his major league debut en route to a 2.91 ERA with 12.2 K/9 as a rookie. But Strasburg's season ended early; he'll undergo Tommy John surgery this week and will likely miss the entire 2011 season. 

Like Chapman, Strasburg is under control through 2016, but neither pitcher will come cheap. Taking into account Strasburg's injury and Chapman's control issues, let's ask a difficult question:

Would you rather have Stephen Strasburg or Aroldis Chapman going forward?

Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.

Royals Notes: Kendall, May, Francoeur

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The Royals are having a tough season at the major league level, but their minor leaguers are playing extremely well. Today's news and developments are no exception to the year's trend:

  • Jason Kendall will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery, according to MLB.com's Dick Kaegel. The catcher's under contract with Kansas City for 2011, but he won't be back until early next season, since the recovery time is at least eight months.
  • The Royals called on catcher Lucas May, according to a team press release. The Royals obtained May in July when they sent Scott Podsednik to Los Angeles. When the Royals acquired May, GM Dayton Moore called him a "slam dunk MLB catcher" in some capacity.
  • The Royals named third baseman Mike Moustakas and left-hander John Lamb minor league hitter and pitcher of the year, respectively. Moustakas raked in the upper minors this year, hitting 34 homers, posting a 1.008 OPS and driving in over a run per game as a 21-year-old. Lamb wasn't too bad, either, posting a 2.33 ERA across three levels and striking out more than one batter per inning.
  • Speaking of future Royals, one NL official guaranteed to Newsday's Ken Davidoff that Jeff Francoeur will play for Kansas City in 2011 (Twitter link). The Rangers technically control Francoeur's right's next year, but they'll likely non-tender him, so the Royals, who have appeared interested before, will likely have a shot at signing the outfielder.

Marlins Working To Sign Catcher

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Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez said the team is working to sign a catcher, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (on Twitter). The team currently has Brad Davis, Chris Hatcher and Brett Hayes, but regulars John Baker and Ronny Paulino are not available. Baker has an injured elbow and Paulino has been suspended for PED use, so the Marlins are without an experienced backstop.

MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reported this week that the team will look into catching options this offseason, but it appears that Larry Beinfest and Michael Hill are searching now. There aren't many catchers available on the free agent market, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the team signed Mike Rabelo, Paul Lo Duca or Mike Redmond, all of whom are former Marlins.

The Orioles’ 2011 Rotation

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The Orioles' 2011 rotation will likely feature many familiar faces, but the results could be noticeably different if Baltimore's young starters continue adapting to the challenges of the American League East. Because of baseball's unbalanced schedule, the Orioles face four of baseball's top ten offenses on a regular basis. Not coincidentally, Orioles starters rank 26th in the majors in ERA, 25th in innings, 24th in quality starts, 29th in strikeout to walk ratio and 29th in FIP.

For some teams, those results would call for an offseason overhaul, but the Orioles have a young rotation that's capable of improving considerably. Jeremy Guthrie, the team's most established starter, has a 4.10 ERA in four seasons in the AL East, so the Orioles have pencilled him in atop next year's rotation.

Current starters Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta and Brad Bergesen will all be in the mix for starting jobs, but Kevin Millwood hits free agency and could sign in a more pitcher-friendly environment. Even if Millwood leaves, the O's will have a number of internal options, as president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail points out.

"You’d add [Zach] Britton and you’d add [Chris]  Tillman and you’d add [Rick]  Vanden Hurk, and then there are others that could work their way in there, like [Troy]  Patton," MacPhail told MLBTR.

With a month to go in the 2010 campaign and an entire offseason ahead of us, it's still early to predict starters with much certainty, but Matusz will presumably start for Baltimore in 2011. He entered the 2010 season as the fifth-best prospect in the game, according to Baseball America, but has struggled at times. Like AL East lefties Jon Lester, David Price and Ricky Romero, Matusz has taken time to adjust from the minors to baseball's toughest division, but if last month is any indication, he has made some adjustments. Though Matusz's season ERA sits at 4.72, he pitched to a 2.43 mark in August with a 26/7 K/BB ratio.

Jake Arrieta has a 5.10 ERA in 15 major league starts this season with more walks than strikeouts. Those numbers aren’t anything special, but the righty placed fourth on Baseball America’s preseason list of top Orioles prospects because of his “pure stuff” and potential to eat innings. The 24-year-old posted a 1.85 ERA in Triple A before the O’s called him up, so he figures to improve in 2011 as long as he can sort out his command issues.

Brad Bergesen, also in the team's current rotation, has an ERA of 5.55 with 4.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. He doesn't turn 25 until later this month, so he's still young, even if he doesn't have the upside of some Orioles prospects.

Tillman and Britton are among Baltimore's most promising young arms. Tillman, 22, has a 3.34 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in Triple A this season, though he has scuffled at the major league level so far. Britton, a 22-year-old left-hander, has a 2.69 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in the upper minors. Both will have the chance to break into Baltimore's rotation next spring.

The Orioles acquired Vanden Hurk for Will Ohman earlier in the summer and they consider the 25-year-old right-hander a potential starter. He has a 4.25 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 118.2 Triple A innings this year. Vanden Hurk, Tillman, Britton and current long reliever Troy Patton are not in the rotation now, but they give the Orioles a number of options. Still, if Millwood signs elsewhere, the O's may consider other veteran starters to complement their many young rotation candidates.

"If you have the opportunity to add another veteran innings guy, you might look at that as well," MacPhail said.  

Given the group's relative inexperience and the Orioles' division, it would be unfair to expect a San Diego or Oakland-esque breakout from this group right away. Pitchers like Tillman, Britton, Arrieta and Matusz will all be learning on the go, so they'll likely struggle at times. But those arms are promising, so the O's could have a young and effective rotation within a couple seasons.

Padres Designate Cesar Carrillo For Assignment

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The Padres designated right-hander Cesar Carrillo for assignment to create 40-man roster space, according to the team. The Padres called up pitching prospect Cory Luebke, reinstated Oscar Salazar from the DL and called up Triple A catcher Chris Stewart in corresponding moves.

Carrillo appeared in three games for the Padres last year, but has not played in the majors so far in 2010. The Padres selected the 26-year-old right-hander in the first round of the 2005 draft. In 27 Triple A starts this year, Carrillo has a 5.60 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9.

Bobby Seay To Miss 2011

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Teams eyeing Bobby Seay as a potential buy-low option for their 2011 bullpens have to cross the lefty off their lists. Seay told John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press that he will have labrum surgery on his throwing shoulder later this month. It will take 10-12 months to recover from the procedure so it appears that Seay, who missed this season with shoulder trouble, will miss the entire 2011 season as well.

The 32-year-old was effective for the Tigers from 2007-09 when he averaged 62 appearances per season and posted a 3.75 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. If he had pitched similarly in 2010, Seay would have hit free agency as one of the more appealing available left-handed relievers. Even a few effective outings could have convinced a team to take a chance on him. Instead, Seay won't be an impact addition until 2012, at the earliest and teams will have to look elsewhere for left-handed relievers.

When he does return, Seay says he wants to “wear a Tigers uniform again and get big outs for [manager] Jim Leyland." 

Twins Send Van Mil To L.A.; Fuentes Trade Complete

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The Twins will send right-hander Loek Van Mil to the Angels to complete the Brian Fuentes trade, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune (on Twitter). The Twins designated Van Mil for assignment over the weekend, when they had to create roster space for Fuentes.

Van Mil, a native of the Netherlands, stands 7'1". The reliever spent most of the 2010 season at AA and posted an overall ERA of 6.15 in 26 appearances with 7.2 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9. Van Mil turns 26 this month, but he was still considered a "potential impact reliever" by Baseball America before the season. BA explained that Van Mil has a sound delivery that's hard to repeat and explained that he must throw more strikes to reach the majors.

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