Melvin: Axford A Pleasant Surprise
John Axford had faced 34 major league hitters going into the 2010 season, so you would have surprised even the most dedicated Brewers fans if you’d told them he was going to be the team’s closer this year. But Axford, who struck out Derrek Lee to preserve a one-run ninth inning lead last night, is most definitely Milwaukee's stopper.
Yes, Axford, a complete unknown just months ago, is closing games for a team that has all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman in its bullpen. And no, when Brewers GM Doug Melvin signed Axford two and a half years ago, he was not under the impression that he'd found his next go-to reliever.
“You always have visions of this happening,” Melvin told MLBTR. “But I don’t think we thought that this would happen, that he’d be our closer, especially closing in front of a Hall of Famer. I don’t think anybody had the vision that this would happen.”
Before Axford and his mustache won over Brewers fans, area scout Jay Lapp saw him pitch for the Brantford Red Sox of the Intercounty Baseball League. Back then, the right-hander was a bartender, but not a complete unknown in baseball circles. Axford generated buzz as a 2004 draft prospect, but underwent Tommy John surgery late in 2003. After the operation, the Reds selected him in the 42nd round of the 2005 draft and Axford pitched in the Yankees system in 2007. But in 2008, the Brewers signed him for his promise, not his polish.
“We knew we were getting a guy that had a good live arm, but there were a lot of mechanical issues with him,” Melvin said. “There were some up and down moments and some times when we weren’t sure he was going to throw enough strikes.”
Indeed, Axford had massive problems finding the strike zone in the Yankees system. He pitched at four levels in 2007 and posted an overall walk rate of 6.4 BB/9. Only two major league pitchers have higher walk rates this season: Dontrelle Willis and Oliver Perez have both posted 7.7 BB/9 (min. 40 IP). Those two left-handers have had trouble finding regular playing time this year, but Axford’s walk rates didn’t scare the Brewers away.
“If [pitchers] have good live arms and their walk rates are high, I think you’ve got to be patient,” Melvin said. “One of the toughest things in the game is to be patient.”
Axford has always had a mid-90s fastball and a pair of good breaking pitches. When the Brewers tinkered with his delivery, his walk rate dropped. He walked fewer batters than ever before getting called up to the majors this year and his current MLB walk rate is a career-best 3.1 BB/9.
“Guys with good arms, I say the same thing,” Melvin said. “Their walks can be reduced once they feel comfortable with their deliveries.”
That comfort zone can be evasive, so few relievers have lasting success like Hoffman.
“They can lose it if they don’t stay on top of things, they can lose the delivery, but I think that’s why some pitchers can be good one year and not the next year,” Melvin said.
This season, Axford has a 2.83 ERA with a 50% ground ball rate, 10.8 K/9 and a team-leading 16 saves. Those stats impress the Brewers, but Melvin also enjoys the Hoffman-like demeanor the 27-year-old showed on the mound last night.
“He kept his poise and struck out Derrek Lee and sometimes a young guy like that can really panic, but his composure and poise is very good,” Melvin said.
American League Team Claims Papelbon
An unknown American League team claimed Jonathan Papelbon, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Red Sox could trade Papelbon to the claiming club, but are unlikely to do so. Instead, they’ll likely pull their closer back from waivers and hold onto him.
Papelbon makes $9.35MM this season and will head to arbitration this winter. He will earn more than $10MM in next year and will hit free agency after 2011. Even though Papelbon appears headed for an eight-figure salary in 2010, the Red Sox don't necessarily have any interest in trading the four-time All-Star.
Teams often put players on waivers to determine interest even if they have no intention of making a deal. Papelbon has a 2.98 ERA with a career-low 7.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. His 25 saves put him on track for a fifth consecutive 35-save campaign.
American League teams have the chance to claim AL players before NL teams. The Orioles have the league's worst record, so they currently have the top waiver claim. The Rays have the league's best record, so they pick last before National League teams get their chance. Click here for more on trading in August.
Pirates Claim Chan Ho Park
The Pirates announced that they claimed Chan Ho Park off of waivers from the Yankees today. Pittsburgh designated Steven Jackson for assignment in a corresponding move and officially announced that they claimed Chris Resop from the Braves.
After trading for Kerry Wood on Saturday, the Yankees designated Park for assignment. The 37-year-old right-hander has respectable strikeout (7.4 K/9) and walk (3.1 BB/9) rates, but has allowed seven homers in 35.1 innings of work. Park also allowed 40 hits with the Yankees, so his season ERA sits at 5.60.
Park earns a base salary of $1.2MM in 2010 and will hit free agency this fall.
Mike Lowell Placed On Waivers
The Red Sox placed last night's hero, Mike Lowell, on waivers, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. Lowell, who returned from a rehab assignment yesterday and promptly homered on the first pitch he saw, will not necessarily be traded. Still, he will likely clear waivers since $3.9MM remains on his 2010 contract. That's much more than teams want to commit to an infielder with ongoing hip issues, despite last night's home run.
However, the move could be a prelude to a trade. Since Lowell is likely to clear waivers, the Red Sox will presumably have the option to trade him to any MLB team. We'll know within a couple days whether a team claims Lowell and if no club makes a claim, the Red Sox will be free to deal.
At this point, Kevin Youkilis is hurt, so Lowell is a valuable piece for the banged-up Red Sox. If Youkilis returns to form and David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre are still healthy and hitting, the Red Sox could consider dealing Lowell. The Yankees, Rangers, Angels, Twins, Tigers and Blue Jays are among the teams that have reportedly shown interest in Lowell this year.
Here's our primer for August trades.
Phillies Acquire Mike Sweeney
The Phillies acquired Mike Sweeney from Seattle for a player to be named later or cash considerations, according to a Mariners press release. The 37-year-old has six homers and a .263/.327/.475 line for the Mariners this year. However, Sweeney has been on the disabled list since late June with back spasms and was just activated.
He'll presumably become a pinch hitter and occasional first baseman for Charlie Manuel's Phillies once Ryan Howard returns from the DL. Until then, Manuel told reporters that he'll use Sweeney regularly at first base. He made five All-Star teams as a first baseman/DH, but has only played 25 innings in the field this year.
Sweeney makes just $650K this year before becoming a free agent, so there won't be a ton of money changing hands in the deal. If the Mariners obtain a player instead of cash, they'll likely get a fringe prospect, but GM Jack Zduriencik says he wanted to see Sweeney play for a contender and will be "pulling for him to succeed in Philadelphia.”
The deal means all 14 American League teams and every NL team with a worse record than the Phillies passed on Sweeney. It's possible that every NL team passed on him, but that cannot be verified.
Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports first reported the deal on Twitter.
Pirates Claim Chris Resop
The Pirates claimed righty Chris Resop off waivers from the Braves, according to David O'Brien of Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter). The Braves had requested outright waivers on Resop on Monday.
Resop disappointed in his brief stint with the Braves. However, the 27-year-old posted a 2.09 ERA, 10.0 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9 with four home runs allowed in 82 Triple A innings this year (15 starts). This is a nice pickup for the Pirates, who were known to be trolling for pitching after trading away several key members of their bullpen.
Odds & Ends: Waivers, Lowell, Taschner, Sale
Alex Rodriguez hit his 600th home run today off Shaun Marcum. A-Rod is now the seventh player in MLB history to reach the milestone; up next is Sammy Sosa at 609. Links for Wednesday…
- Chat today, 2pm CST.
- Players on the disabled list can't pass through waivers in August, reports ESPN's Buster Olney.
- The Yankees, Rangers, and Red Sox nearly reached a deal on Friday that would've sent Mike Lowell to New York, Jarrod Saltalamacchia to Boston, and prospects to the Rangers, reports WEEI's Alex Speier. A Lowell deal with the Blue Jays had been discussed in April and June, but both potential trades were killed due to health concerns.
- Lefty Jack Taschner filed for free agency, according to MLB.com's transactions page. Taschner had been designated for assignment by the Dodgers on Friday.
- First-round pick Chris Sale will join the White Sox today as a reliever, reports Baseball America's Jim Callis, making the lefty the first to reach the bigs from the 2010 draft class.
- With Thomas Diamond's MLB debut yesterday, Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs looks at what's come of the DVD trio.
Daniels On Hamilton, Vlad, Lee, Scheppers
Rangers GM Jon Daniels chatted with ESPN readers yesterday afternoon. A few nuggets:
- Daniels explained that Josh Hamilton will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2012 season, and "a lot can happen between now and then that could keep him in Texas beyond that point." Hamilton reportedly turned down a four-year, $24MM offer in 2009. Rangers president Nolan Ryan recently testified that Hamilton's salary could jump to $8-10MM in 2010 if he wins the MVP award.
- Daniels has let the agents for Vladimir Guerrero and Cliff Lee know he'd like to re-sign their clients, but he feels it's best to talk specifics in the offseason.
- It's "certainly possible" Tanner Scheppers will make his MLB debut this year, and Daniels says the Rangers "don't really make decisions based on service time." The 23-year-old righty sports a 3.76 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9 in 52.6 Triple A innings this year.
- The Rangers were discussing Cristian Guzman with the Nationals prior to Ian Kinsler's injury; Daniels viewed Guzman as a luxury at that point.
- The expectation is that the Rangers will be able to announce the player to be named received from the Red Sox in the Jarrod Saltalamacchia deal shortly.
- Daniels has a clause in his contract that allows him to leave if the Rangers are sold to a group other than the one fronted by Chuck Greenberg, but he said yesterday that "leaving the Rangers is not remotely on my mind" and "I love it here."
Will The Rays Trade Garza Or Shields This Winter?
It's pure speculation, but rival executives who spoke to ESPN's Buster Olney expect the Rays to shop Matt Garza or James Shields in the offseason given a potential rotation surplus. Rotation surpluses typically disappear very quickly, but let's dive into this possibility anyway.
Garza, 27 in November, has a 4.11 ERA, 7.0 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 this year with 20 home runs allowed in 135.6 innings. Olney notes that Garza has a higher ceiling than Shields, but lacks the cost certainty. Garza will enter his second arbitration year after earning $3.35MM in 2010. I estimate he'll make around $6MM next year. Garza is under team control through 2013, though most good young starters sign extensions instead of reaching free agency going year-by-year.
Shields, 29 in December, has a 4.54 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 this year with 22 home runs allowed in 142.6 innings. Shields and Fausto Carmona are the only two pitchers I've found with three club options in their contracts. Shields can be controlled through 2014.
Both pitchers are controllable, under 30, and healthy. Both have succeeded in the AL East. Teams like the Nationals, Mets, Brewers, Rockies, Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers, Tigers, and Twins would have to inquire if Garza or Shields becomes available this winter.
The Cubs’ Offseason
The Cubs have had a brutal year, and fans are already thinking ahead to the offseason and preparing for 2011. Here's what the Cubs have:
C – Geovany Soto
1B –
2B – Blake DeWitt
SS – Starlin Castro
3B – Aramis Ramirez
LF – Alfonso Soriano
CF – Marlon Byrd
RF – Tyler Colvin
SP – Ryan Dempster
SP – Carlos Silva
SP – Randy Wells
SP – Tom Gorzelanny
SP –
RP – Carlos Marmol
RP – Sean Marshall
RP – John Grabow
Kosuke Fukudome is absent from the starting lineup in this picture. I expect the Cubs to try to trade him in the offseason, especially if Jim Hendry remains the GM. Even if Fukudome stays, the Cubs would probably give more playing time to Colvin.
The Cubs should be active in the free agent market for first basemen as they attempt to replace Derrek Lee. Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena, Aubrey Huff, and Paul Konerko could be options. Troy Glaus, Adam LaRoche, Lyle Overbay, and Lance Berkman might fit into the second tier. I can envision the Cubs pursuing Dunn if the Nationals don't extend him.
The Hendry front office has always succeeded in dumping players they've soured on, and Carlos Zambrano should be no exception. That still leaves four decent rotation options, with a handful of viable candidates to compete for the fifth spot (perhaps including Andrew Cashner and Thomas Diamond). The rotation lacks depth, but I'm not sure there will be room in the already-bloated payroll to pursue Cliff Lee or even Javier Vazquez. The Cubs probably will survey the free agent market for a veteran setup man, of which there are plenty of hit-or-miss options.
Last offseason the Cubs were somewhat paralyzed by the need to move Milton Bradley's contract before they knew how much money they had to spend. History might repeat itself as they attempt to unload large commitments to Zambrano and Fukudome. They'll also face big raises for arbitration-eligibles Geovany Soto and Carlos Marmol, among others. The Cubs' offseason should involve plenty of financial wrangling as they try to free up enough dollars to avoid bringing back the same 90-loss crew in 2011.