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AL East Notes: Yankees, Bailey, Rays

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The Yankees inquired after recently-dismissed Cubs manager David Ross regarding their bench coach opening, per Ken Rosenthal and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. Per the duo, however, Ross has indicated that his preference is to manage again if he were to return to the dugout for the 2024 season. That would seemingly be an unlikely outcome, as following this morning’s news of Joe Espada being hired as manager in Houston the only remaining managerial openings are in Milwaukee and San Diego. Ross has not been connected to the Brewers as a potential managerial candidate, and is not viewed as a favorite for the position with the Padres despite some level of reported interest on the part of San Diego.

With Ross an unlikely candidate, Rosenthal and Kuty suggest that former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus, who was reportedly a candidate for the managerial gig in Houston before the club opted to promote Espada, could be a contender for the bench coach gig in the Bronx. Another potential candidate could be Yankees third base coach and former Mets manager Luis Rojas, though that hire would simply shift the hole on the big league coaching staff from the dugout to the third base line. The person hired to replace Mendoza will be the fourth to serve under manager Aaron Boone in the role, following not only Mendoza but also Phillies manager Rob Thomson and Dodgers bullpen coach Josh Bard.

More notes from around the AL East…

  • Giants bullpen coach Andrew Bailey is expected to be a hot commodity on the coaching market this offseason, with Rosenthal and Kuty suggesting that he’s not only a candidate for the bench coach role with the Yankees but also the pitching coach role with both the Red Sox and Orioles. The duo suggest that Bailey could have a preference to return to the east coast after being denied permission by San Francisco to interview for a bench coach vacancy with the Mets back in 2022. The Giants hold no such power over Bailey at this point, as the 39-year-old is currently a free agent. Bailey pitched for both the Yankees and Red Sox during his big league career, which spanned eight seasons. Prior to his tenure as pitching coach in San Francisco, Bailey worked as a bullpen coach with the Angels under Ausmus during the 2019 season.
  • The Rays have no plans to replace Peter Bendix as GM after Bendix departed the organization to take a job as president of baseball operations for the Marlins last week, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Topkin relays that there will be no external search for a new GM, with assistant GMs Will Cousins, Chanda Lawdermilk and Carlos Rodriguez all expected to take larger roles in the baseball operations department in the wake of Bendix’s exit. Senior adviser Jon Daniels, who previously lead baseball operations for the Rangers from 2005 to 2022, is also expected to take on a larger role in the Rays’ front office, acting as a mentor to the club’s group of assistant GMs. Bendix is the fifth high-ranking member of the Rays front office to depart to lead another baseball operations department, joining Andrew Friedman, Chaim Bloom, James Click, and Matt Arnold, though Bloom and Click are no longer in those roles.

Latest On Red Sox’ General Manager Search

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6:37PM: Former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels declined an interview request from the Red Sox, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.  Daniels “was initially excited” about the job possibility, according to a source, but ultimately decided against an interview “due to the desire to keep his family rooted in Texas.”

12:15PM: It’s now been roughly a month since the Red Sox fired chief baseball operations Chaim Bloom, creating a vacancy atop their baseball ops department. The club has expressed a willingness to take their time in making a decision, but it seems that there’s a building narrative that many potential candidates aren’t terribly excited by the job opening. Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo, both of MassLive, reported on the search today with each of them relaying that the club has been getting the cold shoulder from many of their targets.

It’s not known which specific candidates are involved, but it’s reported than many of them have declined to be interviewed or have withdrawn their names from consideration for the post. Though running a prestigious large-market club like the Sox might be attractive in theory, there are a few factors listed for the lack of interest. One is the high amount of turnover in the Boston front office of late. Ben Cherington got the position in October of 2011 but was replaced as the club’s baseball decision maker by Dave Dombrowski in August of 2015, despite the fact that the club had won the World Series in 2013. Dombrowski was then dismissed in 2019, even though he also brought a title to Boston the year prior, getting replace by Bloom.

Beyond that, there are reportedly concerns around the established role of manager Álex Cora and some incumbent executives. To an outsider, it would appear there are fears of getting hired, not being given much agency and then getting quickly thrown under the bus if things aren’t going well.

One name the club is targeting is Michael Hill, reports McAdam, though it’s unclear if he has been interviewed or if he even wants the job. He does have plenty of front office experience, as he was a part of the Marlins’ front office from 2002 until 2020. He worked his way up to hold various titles, including assistant general manager, general manager and president of baseball operations. But his contract wasn’t renewed after 2020 and he has since been working for Major League Baseball as senior vice president of on-field operations. His name has frequently popped up in front office searches in recent years, with the Astros being interested in him as recently as January. But Hill withdrew his name from consideration for that job, which ended up going to Dana Brown.

One other name on the list is Josh Byrnes, who currently serves as senior vice president of baseball operations for the Dodgers. Cotillo reports that the Sox have had internal discussions about interviewing Byrnes, but it’s unclear if that’s led to any direct contact. Byrnes has a baseball résumé that dates back to being hired by Cleveland back in 1994, later bouncing to various other clubs, including a stint in Boston as assistant general manager starting in 2003. That led to stints as the general manager of the Diamondbacks and Padres, before he joined the Dodgers in 2014.  Like Hill, his name has also been a popular one in recent front office searches, most recently being connected to the Tigers just over a year ago.

In what is perhaps a more notable development, the club has already interviewed current assistant general manager Eddie Romero, per Cotillo. He has been with the Sox since 2006 and Cotillo reports that he has a strong relationship with Cora.

There’s still plenty of unknowns around the search and the narrative could always change, but it’s interesting that the club seems to be hitting some obstacles to this point. Though they have Hill and Byrnes on their list, there’s been no reporting to suggest the interest is mutual or that any momentum has been gained with either. As Cotillo relays, Romero might have an edge not just based on his existing relationship with the club but also due to the other candidates taking their respective hats out of the ring, though it’s entirely possible that other candidates will emerge in the weeks to come.

Whoever does get the job will have challenges moving forward. The club is generally considered to have a strong farm system but the American League East is arguably the strongest division in the league. The Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays all made the postseason this year and each club is well positioned to continue being competitive. The Yankees had a bit of a down year but haven’t finished below .500 since 1992 and will surely be looking for ways to come back stronger next year.

The Sox have generally been an aggressive spending team but not as much lately. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their payroll was in the top five in the league for much of the century but has fallen out of that tier since the pandemic. They also have some hefty contracts on the books already, especially those of Rafael Devers, Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida. Thanks to that group and Garrett Whitlock, the club already has close to $80MM committed to just four players as far out as 2026.

Rays Hire Jon Daniels As Senior Advisor For Baseball Operations

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The Rays announced to reporters, including Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, that they have hired Jon Daniels as senior advisor for baseball operations. Daniels had spent many years with the Rangers until he was recently fired as president of baseball operations.

Daniels, 45, spent 17 years running the baseball operations in Texas, getting hired as general manager in 2005 and promoted to the POBO role in 2013. The Rangers had their best run of success with Daniels at the helm, as they made the playoffs in five out of seven seasons from 2010 to 2016, including trips to the World Series in the first two of those years. Since that time, however, the club has entered a rebuilding period that has continued to linger. They fell to 78-84 in 2017 and just endured their sixth straight losing season in 2022, with Daniels getting fired in August.

Despite the poor results in recent seasons, the Rays will bring Daniels into their front office mix. Said front office is headed by Erik Neander, president of baseball operations, followed by Peter Bendix, senior vice president baseball operations and general manager. The exact level of involvement they expect from Daniels is unclear, though Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays that Daniels will focus on “supporting baseball ops senior leadership while utilizing his extensive experience in the industry to help further inform decision-making.”

In addition to the hiring of Daniels, the Rays also announced several promotions and/or title changes, with Topkin giving a rundown on Twitter (link one, two and three).

Rangers Fire President Of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels

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The Rangers are dismissing longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, Ken Rosenthal and Levi Weaver of The Athletic report (via Twitter). Texas announced the move shortly thereafter, adding that general manager Chris Young will now oversee all baseball operations decisions and processes. The move comes just days after the organization fired manager Chris Woodward.

Jon Daniels | Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

“This morning I informed Jon Daniels that his contract would not be renewed at the end of the season and that he is being relieved of his duties effective immediately,” managing partner Ray Davis said in a press release announcing the move. “Jon’s accomplishments in his 17 years running our baseball operations department have been numerous. He and his staff put together the best teams in this franchise’s history that resulted in five playoff appearances and two American League pennants between 2010 and 2016. His impact on the growth of our player development, scouting, and analytics groups has been immense. Jon has always had the best interests of the Rangers organization in mind on and off the field and in the community.

“But the bottom line is we have not had a winning record since 2016 and for much of that time, have not been competitive in the A.L. West Division. While I am certain we are heading in the right direction, I feel a change in leadership of the baseball operations department will be beneficial going forward.”

Daniels had been atop the Rangers’ baseball operations hierarchy since way back in 2005, when at just 28 years of age he became the sport’s youngest general manager. Prior to today’s ousting, he was the sport’s third-longest-tenured baseball ops leader, trailing only Athletics executive vice president Billy Beane and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman.

As Davis alluded to, Daniels oversaw some of the finest years in Rangers franchise history, including a pair of back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010-11. Those teams thrived in no small part due to savvy trades made by Daniels. His blockbuster deal sending Mark Teixeira to the Braves (in exchange for shortstop Elvis Andrus, 2010 AL Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and lefty Matt Harrison) and Daniels’ acquisitions of Josh Hamilton (from the Reds in exchange for Edinson Volquez) and Nelson Cruz (from the Brewers for Carlos Lee) helped set the stage for those halcyon days in Arlington.

The success carried  into the mid-2010s, as Texas won the AL West and enjoyed a 97-win season back in 2016. That came on the heels of some other high-profile moves — e.g. signing Yu Darvish and Adrian Beltre, acquiring Cole Hamels — which led to multiple contract extensions for Daniels over the years. Since that time, however, ill-fated signings have begun to mount while what should have been pivotal trades have failed to bear fruit.

The 2014 signing of Shin-Soo Choo to a seven-year, $131MM contract ultimately proved to be a misstep, for instance, and shorter-term deals for veterans like Andrew Cashner and Carlos Gomez also came up empty. Texas’ 2016 acquisition of Jonathan Lucroy went south in 2017, and the Rangers ultimately received little to no value in trades of production veterans such as Yu Darvish and Mike Minor, which further set the farm system back. Meanwhile, homegrown talents projected for stardom never achieved those ceilings; Nomar Mazara, Martin Perez, Leody Taveras, Hans Crouse, Willie Calhoun (acquired for Darvish) and Chi Chi Gonzalez are among the many former Top-100 Rangers prospects who never really developed into impact players (though Perez’s 2022 breakout has at least finally changed the narrative on him to an extent).

That difficulty regarding player development wasn’t unique to the organization’s very best prospects, either. Rather, Texas’ ability to develop big leaguers through the draft has simply stalled out in recent years. Incredibly, not one member of the Rangers’ 2018-21 draft classes has reached the Majors yet. Dating back to 2016, right-hander Joe Barlow is the only player drafted by the Rangers to produce even 1.0 wins above replacement in the Majors.

Certainly, that doesn’t all fall solely on Daniels’ shoulders. The Rangers have had scouts, analysts and dozens of other executives contributing to those collaborative processes throughout that dry period, but as general manager (and eventually president of baseball operations), Daniels was the final call both on baseball operations decisions, on filling out the scouting and player development ranks, etc.

Speaking of general managers — those duties will now all fall to Young, the 43-year-old former big league pitcher who has rapidly ascended into the game’s executive ranks following the conclusion of a 13-year Major League career. A Princeton product, Young was always touted as one of the sport’s brightest baseball minds, even during his playing days. He broke into executive work not with a team but working in Major League Baseball’s offices, where he served as the league’s senior vice president of on-field operations, initiatives and strategy.

Young was tabbed as the new Rangers’ general manager in somewhat out-of-the-blue fashion in Dec. 2020. It was his first post working in a Major League front office, but the Rangers weren’t the only club with interest. The Mets, in owner Steve Cohen’s first offseason at the wheel of the team, had interest in interviewing Young for their own GM vacancy. He interviewed for the post but withdrew his name from consideration, citing the fact that he did not want to move his family from Dallas to New York as the key factor in that decision. A week later, the Rangers announced his hiring.

Young may not have the typical resume most up-and-coming executives bring to the table, but he’s spent the past two years learning under Daniels — who, for all the Rangers’ recent struggles, remains one of the game’s most widely respected executives. That experience will prove vital as Young now sets forth to execute his own vision for the franchise.

Daniels, meanwhile, would surely be a welcome addition to countless baseball ops departments around the game, though it’s not yet clear whether he’ll immediately pursue another position or whether he’ll step back and take some time with his family after a near two-decade grind leading the Rangers. He’s been tied to his hometown Mets in the past, and there will be at least one GM vacancy this offseason now that the Tigers have fired Al Avila. Time will tell, but Daniels should have little trouble finding a new role if he’s so inclined — though for the time being, it may not be running his own department.

Latest Rumors On Mets’ Front Office

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The Mets again find themselves in the midst of an effort to reshape their front office, less than a year after already making sweeping changes under new owner Steve Cohen. Team president Sandy Alderson temporarily assumed oversight of baseball operations last week as the team put acting GM Zack Scott on administrative leave following a DWI arrest, but there’s little expectation Alderson will return to the top of the baseball ops hierarchy on a full-time basis.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets today that Alderson signed a two-year deal to help Cohen’s ownership transition and front office changes, but he had no desire to return to a full-time baseball operations role. The team’s plan for the 2022 season is to have Alderson return to a broader-reaching team president role without directly running the baseball operations department. A new hire will need to be made, as has already been widely suggested in the wake of Scott’s DWI charge.

Cohen’s Mets were connected to numerous high-profile candidates last year in looking to fill their baseball operations void after parting ways with Brodie Van Wagenen, but several either declined to interview or were denied permission to do so. Teams generally only permit their executives to interview with other clubs if the position is a promotion over their current post. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Rays not only extended general manager Erik Neander but promoted him to president of baseball operations just yesterday; Neander was known to be of interest to the Mets last year.

There’s been quite a bit of recent speculation on Theo Epstein as a candidate. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman all wrote on the topic within the same 24-hour period. Of course, as Rosenthal pointed out, it was Epstein who originally hired both Scott and Jared Porter — the former Mets GM who was fired a month into his tenure last offseason following revelations of past harassment of a reporter. Both joined the Red Sox under Epstein’s watch, and Epstein brought Porter to Chicago not long after being named Cubs president of baseball operations.

The optics of that aren’t necessarily damning, but a cleaner break from that tree might also be welcome. Furthermore, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote this week that nearly everyone he’s spoken to has strongly downplayed the Epstein rumors. All three Epstein columns also mention the possibility that he’d look to secure a minority stake with any team he joins, and Martino suggests the same: that Epstein is seeking a partial ownership opportunity.

Looking around the league, there aren’t many high-profile executives who’d seem like candidates to depart their current post and take on the spotlight of the Mets’ presidency. Twins GM Thad Levine and Indians GM Mike Chernoff both declined the opportunity to interview last offseason. A’s GM David Forst was reported to be of interest to the Mets (and the Angels), but there’s no indication he ever actually interviewed (or even spoke with) either club.

Heyman somewhat speculatively suggests two other executives whose names have been or could be of interest to the Mets: Dodgers senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes and Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels. Martino, in similar fashion, listed off three more high-profile execs who’d be making lateral moves and require ownership permission to even interview: Cleveland’s Chris Antonetti, Minnesota’s Derek Falvey and Oakland’s Billy Beane.

Byrnes would make a fairly logical candidate for the Mets to pursue. He’s a high-ranking member of a large-payroll, consistently successful organization, but the Mets’ top baseball ops job would still represent a promotion for him. He’s also served as general manager of both the Padres and the Diamondbacks in the past, so he’s no stranger to running a baseball operations outfit himself. Somewhat coincidentally, Byrnes was the other finalist for the Mets’ GM post back in 2010 when the team ultimately hired Alderson to take over baseball operations.

As for Daniels, he would be making a lateral move, from one president of baseball ops role to another. However, the Rangers also just recently hired Chris Young as their new general manager, and that could be viewed as a means of grooming an eventual heir-apparent for Daniels, who was extended on a contract of still-unreported length back in 2018. Daniels — a Queens native, for what it’s worth — has been running the Rangers’ baseball operations department since being appointed general manager at just 28 years of age in the 2005-06 offseason.

Daniels’ situation bears some similarity to that of Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns, whose name was recently raised in connection with the Mets by ESPN’s Buster Olney. However, there are also some key differences. As is the case with the Rangers, the Brewers just named a new general manager, Matt Arnold, to serve under Stearns (who is, like Daniels, a New York native). The key difference is that Arnold was promoted to GM from within at a time when the Mets were known to be looking to hire a GM; Young was hired by the Rangers from outside the organization. (Although he also interviewed for the Mets’ job last offseason before joining the Rangers.)

Stearns is also newer to the Brewers’ top job than Daniels is to his own post. His contract extension and promotion are both more recent as well. There’s little reason to think Brewers owner Mark Attanasio would be open to allowing Stearns to depart when he’s still under contract another year and when the Brewers have emerged as one of the best teams in all of baseball. The Brewers denied him permission to interview last offseason, Martino notes.

Suffice it to say, speculation already abounds with regard to the Mets’ front office, and that’s before the team has even truly begun its search for a new baseball operations leader in earnest. These names and a dozen or more others will likely be tied to the Mets in the weeks and months to come, before a hire is ultimately made.

MLBTR Poll: What Should The Rangers Do With Lance Lynn?

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Thus far, there’s been little movement on the free agent market. The couple of market-setting moves we have seen, however, involved starting pitchers: namely, Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepting $18.9MM qualifying offers, Drew Smyly taking a one-year, $11MM offer from the Braves, and Robbie Ray returning to the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8MM deal. The Smyly and Ray deals say more than either Stroman or Gausman about the current market price for starting pitchers, as those qualifying offers come with a whole set of extenuating circumstances on both sides of the aisle. Regardless, we’re in the very early stages of the offseason and the first few deals don’t always set the pace.

In light of what we’ve seen so far, Lance Lynn’s one-year, $9.3MM deal looks like a more attractive trade piece now than it was even a week ago. But that doesn’t always help grease the wheels. The difficulty in trading a player on a great contract like Lynn is that for the acquiring team, Lynn’s value drops precipitously as the prospect value it takes to acquire him rises. Of course, the Rangers aren’t incentivized to move him without significant and/or talented youth coming back. To oversimplify, trading is hard.

Following a breakout 7.5 bWAR season in 2019, Lynn again posted solid production with a 3.32 ERA across 13 starts totaling a league-leading 84 innings in 2020. Admittedly, Lynn lost about a half mph off his four-seamer, and a career-high 28.1 K% in 2019 fell to 25.9 K% in 2020. That amounts to a difference of roughly 20 strikeouts over a full season.  That’s not a worrisome drop in either velocity or K-rate, but it’s still noteworthy for a guy entering his age-34 season.

Using Fangraphs metrics – which were less bullish on his 2020 than baseball-reference – Lynn’s 4.17 FIP put him on pace for a 3.7 fWAR full-scale season (with a similar workload to 2019). That’s closer to middle-of-the-rotation stalwart than it is unequivocal ace. And yet, brass tacks: that’s valuable.

Potential acquiring teams might look at the number of young players who stepped into roles at the Major League level last season and choose to ride it out with their own cheaper, younger, and yet more volatile assets. Lynn no doubt brings more certainty to a rotation, however, and even his one-year contact can be seen as a positive for a team that values financial flexibility. In this day and age, most teams qualify.

If the Rangers decide to move him, they’ll look to get pitching prospects in return, writes Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Generally speaking, GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of their pool of position player prospects, complimenting their depth in that department. Pitching has long been an area for improvement for Texas, and it makes sense to seek pitching if subtracting a presence like Lynn.

There’s value in keeping Lynn, however. If Daniels is unable to get a blue-chip prospect in return, keeping Lynn isn’t the worst outcome. Besides, the AL West is arguably more wide open than at any point in the last five years. The Houston Astros stranglehold on the division finally lessened in 2020, the A’s could lose shortstop Marcus Semien in free agency, and the Angels are currently pivoting in the front office. The Mariners, meanwhile, have begun to put some solid pieces together, but they’re not a deterrent for Texas. Both are in the same boat, presumably near the bottom of the American League West.

Way-too-early oddsmakers peg the Rangers among the least likely MLB teams to win the World Series with odds around 80-to-1. It’s doubtful whether they have enough pitching beyond Lynn to truly compete, but stranger things have happened. Besides, Rangers’ fans might like to have a pitcher of Lynn’s pedigree in the rotation, even in the event that they struggle to keep pace. It’s easy to say from the outside that the Rangers are best served trading Lynn, but sometimes those living inside the house simply like living there too much to sell it.

So let’s hear from Rangers’ fans. Is it time to take the best prospect package available? Or do you want to see what happens to start the season? If you don’t consider the Rangers your favorite team, we want to hear from you too. There are more possible opinions than what I’m offering below, so do your best to choose the opinion closest to yours, then spell out the difference for us in the comments.

(Poll link for app users)

Rangers To Reduce Payroll In 2021

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Like many or most other teams, the Rangers are planning to trim their payroll in response to the revenues lost during the shortened 2020 season.  In a session with media earlier this week, managing partner Ray Davis told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and other reporters that “two major factors” will contribute to less spending next year.

“The first is how much baseball is going to lose [financially] in 2020.  And also, the life cycle of our club,” Davis said.  “We have some high-paid contracts rolling off our payroll.  We will have some minimum salary players coming on.  So, it gives a justification, if you will, to not to spend as much.  The economics of baseball has been so sad this year and there is uncertainty about what 2021 will bring.”

The Rangers were projected to have a payroll in the $153MM range heading into the season, before the COVID-19 pandemic struck and the season was reduced to 60 games (thus reducing Texas’ outlay to roughly $65MM).  Grant figures the club won’t go much, if at all, beyond the $100MM figure in 2021, though as Davis noted, some of that reduction was already baked into the future plans.  Approximately $47.1MM will come off the books in the form of departing free agents, most notably Shin-Soo Choo and Corey Kluber — Texas holds a $14MM club option on Kluber for next season but that will surely be declined in the wake of Kluber’s injury-plagued year.  It’s also worth mentioning that 2020 was the final year of the Rangers’ outstanding obligation to retired slugger Prince Fielder.

Assuming Grant’s $100MM projection is correct, that leaves Texas GM Jon Daniels with some room to maneuver, as Roster Resource has just under $62MM in payroll commitments on the Rangers’ books for the coming season.  However, as Daniels has already publicly committed to a “youth movement” year in 2021, major expenditures don’t seem likely.  The Rangers had already taken a generally more conservative approach to free agent spending in recent years, most notably their strategy of signing veteran pitchers (such as Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Jordan Lyles, and Kyle Gibson) to multi-year deals that didn’t break the bank.

It remains to be seen if the Rangers will consider even those modest types of contracts this winter, though Davis did make it clear that Daniels will be the one continuing to weigh those decisions.  Daniels has been running the team’s baseball operations department for 15 seasons, and though the Rangers have suffered through four straight losing seasons, Davis still believes in Daniels’ track record.

“Jon has demonstrated that he and his team can put together winning ballclubs,” Davis said.  “If you thought about going out and replacing him, all you have is a question mark.  We have a known entity.  We have a group of guys that know how to get it done and I think they are going to get it done again.”

Jon Daniels Discusses Rangers’ Remaining Offseason Needs

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Speaking at the Rangers’ “Peek At The Park” fan event on Saturday, GM Jon Daniels gave MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan and other reporters a seeming hint about the club’s offseason direction, stating “I would think that if we do make any significant acquisition, a trade is more likely than a free agent….just the discussions we’ve had make me feel that way.”

Daniels’ comment would seem to diminish the chances of a deal between Texas and Nicholas Castellanos, the top free agent left on the board and a player who has already emerged as a Rangers target.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently detailed, a few teams are speculative fit for Castellanos at this point in the offseason, though all of these clubs seem to have at least one significant obstacle — a crowded outfield, lack of payroll space, etc. — standing in a way of a signing.

Texas arguably has the least-daunting of these positional obstacles, as Castellanos could be installed at first base or in right field, thus relegating either Ronald Guzman or Danny Santana to part-time duty (and Joey Gallo into a primary center field role).  It’s possible, therefore, that money could be the holdup in talks.  MLBTR projected Castellanos for a four-year, $58MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, though it could be that the Rangers or other teams aren’t willing to meet such a significant multi-year price given the narrowed market for Castellanos’ services.  Marcell Ozuna, often considered Castellanos’ closest peer amongst free agent corner outfielders, recently had to settle for a one-year/$18MM pact with the Braves, though Ozuna was also impacted by draft pick compensation via the qualifying offer.

If a big free agent signing isn’t happening, however, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Rangers are set to make a splashy trade for the likes of a Nolan Arenado.  While Texas has been linked to the Rockies third baseman on the rumor mill, Daniels called it “unlikely” that a deal would be worked out.  Rockies GM Jeff Bridich seemingly put the Arenado rumors to rest earlier this week, only for speculation to re-escalate once Arenado went public with what he felt was “disrespectful” treatment from Bridich in particular and the Colorado organization as a whole.

Offense continues to be the Rangers’ primary target, with Daniels saying that he has had talks with almost every team in baseball about potential lineup acquisitions.  Pitching is a lesser concern, as Daniels said that is more apt to add relievers on minor league deals than on multi-year Major League contracts.  This might not bode well for the Rangers’ chances of signing Pedro Strop, though Strop wouldn’t necessarily require a multi-year deal.

Texas could also add veteran starters on minor league deals, though Daniels is pretty satisfied with his team’s in-house options, saying “I’d rather go to Kolby Allard than most of the guys who are available to us.”  Daniels revealed that the Rangers had interest in signing Jerad Eickhoff before the righty inked a minor league pact with the Padres earlier this month.  Eickhoff is a known quantity to Daniels, as the Rangers made Eickhoff a 15th-round draft pick in 2011 before sending him to the Phillies as part of the trade package for Cole Hamels in July 2015.

The Corey Kluber Trade: Reaction & Analysis

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Over a year of trade rumors surrounding Corey Kluber came to an end this afternoon, as the Indians dealt their longtime ace to the Rangers in exchange for outfielder Delino DeShields and right-hander Emmanuel Clase (plus $500K, in a split of the $1MM assignment bonus Kluber received in the event of a trade).  Here are some of the early takes on the trade, plus some of the potential aftershocks that might yet be forthcoming…

  • Kluber’s struggles and drop in velocity at the start of the 2019 season are a concern, ESPN’s Keith Law writes in a subscriber-only piece, while Clase is a very intriguing young reliever.  That said, Cleveland’s overall trade return is “so light compared to what Kluber was as recently as 2018 that it feels like this was a move to dump salary rather than a way to rebuild with younger players.”  Kluber is owed $17.5MM in 2020 and is controlled via an $18MM club option for 2021 (with a $1MM buyout).
  • What the Tribe will do with this newfound payroll space is on the minds of Marc Carig and Jason Lloyd as part of The Athletic’s writers roundtable of opinions on the trade (subscription required).  The club could be content to just pocket the savings as part of a more thorough rebuild that could include a Francisco Lindor trade this winter.  But, with the Indians still in position to contend within a weak AL Central, dealing Kluber could create enough payroll relief to make the team even less likely to move Lindor in the short term, and spend the money saved on Kluber to address other needs.  “Given the number of teams that were involved in the Kluber rumors, it’s hard to dispute that this was the best return they [the Indians] could fetch,” Lloyd writes, with Ken Rosenthal also noting that Cleveland might have been concerned that Kluber’s value could further decline prior to the 2020 trade deadline.
  • Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti discussed the deal with reporters (including The Athletic’s Zack Meisel and MLB.com’s Mandy Bell) and addressed the “variety of different packages” offered by “a lot of teams that had interest in Corey.”  One of the factors that helped sway the talks in the Rangers’ direction was that Clase and DeShields are “two players that could come back and help us in 2020 and help us try to sustain the level of competitiveness we’ve had over the last seven years.”  Even in the short amount of time since the trade was announced, Antonetti revealed that some teams had already called to ask if Clase was available in a follow-up deal.
  • The Angels were one of the teams known to have interest in Kluber, though Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (Twitter link) reports that the Indians wanted highly-touted outfield prospect Brandon Marsh and another top-10 prospect from the Halos’ farm system.  It was a significant ask, given how Marsh is widely considered to be the Angels’ second-best prospect (after Jo Adell) and is ranked by Fangraphs as the 74th-best prospect in all of baseball.  If Cleveland was seeking for such a return for Kluber from the various teams in the hunt, Fletcher notes that it could be a sign that “they have a much higher opinion of Clase than most of baseball.”
  • While DeShields’ lack of hitting kept him from being an everyday player in Arlington, his departure creates more questions within an already uncertain Rangers outfield mix.  Texas GM Jon Daniels told MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan and other reporters that the Rangers will look for an experienced center field through either a trade or a signing, though for now, utilityman Danny Santana is penciled in as the club’s center fielder.  Over his career, Santana has posted subpar fielding numbers (-7.2 UZR/150, -10 Defensive Runs Saved) over 1108 innings as a center fielder, and he has more overall value to Texas a player who can be shifted around the diamond rather than locked into an ill-fitting position.
  • Daniels said his front office first discussed Kluber with the Indians earlier in the offseason, and only circled back after the Winter Meetings, and after the Rangers came up short in their attempts to sign Anthony Rendon.  Negotiations became more serious once Texas agreed to move Clase as part of the deal, speaking again to how highly Cleveland values Clase’s ability.

Quick Hits: Reds, Gray, Rangers, Red Sox, Porcello

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The Reds rotation upgrades are the story of their winter, though impending free agency for Alex Wood and Tanner Roark means there’s not much time for this unit to gel. Their third big addition, Sonny Gray, is the most significant of the three if only because he immediately signed a three year, $30.5MM extension. Unfortunately, Reds fans will have to wait for Gray’s debut, as he was scratched from his start today with right elbow stiffness, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay. Gray came to camp sore a couple days after throwing a bullpen session, but the hope is a little extra rest will get Gray right again. The team did not perform an MRI, and there’s no reason to suspect anything serious at this time. Time to check in on another couple of stories from around the league…

  • Each January, the Rangers invite a select group of top pitching prospects for a week-long mini-camp with the major league staff in advance of Spring Training, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. This season, however, they sent an even smaller group of about ten pitchers to a “secret secondary-pitch intensive.” The camp takes place at Driveline Baseball, an increasingly ballyhooed research and development consultant founded by Kyle Boddy. Trevor Bauer is one noted client, as is a couple of potential feel-good stories of 2019, Kyle Zimmer of the Royals and the Cubs 37-year-old rookie Luke Hagerty. Among the Rangers sent to Driveline were bullpen hopefuls like C.D. Pelham, Brett Martin, Michael Matuella, Jason Bahr, Nick Snyder and Brady Feigl. The exact purpose of the camp remains unclear, and Jon Daniels and the Rangers have been none too keen to speak on the subject. Still, the Driveline story is one to track throughout the year, as we may be hearing more from the innovative research group.
  • Rick Porcello is open to furthering his time with the Red Sox, but they have yet to approach him about an extension, per Rob Bradford of WEEI Sports Radio Network. Porcello excelled in 2016 when he was able to limit walks and home runs en route to winning 22 games and the AL Cy Young, despite a FIP of only 3.40. Now in the final year of the four year, $82.5MM deal signed before that season, Porcello’s market value is tricky to pinpoint. The Cy Young raises his profile, though he remains closer to a mid-rotation workhorse than a top-of-the-rotation ace. He has a career 4.02 FIP, but he’s also on a remarkable run of durability that makes him an outlier in this era – he has started between 27 and 33 games each season for ten years running. Porcello, 30, is likely not as high on the Red Sox priority list as Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts.
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