On Friday, Jays outfielder Jose Bautista told Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Sun that he has set a deadline for extension talks with the club. The slugger and the club have an arbitration hearing scheduled for tomorrow and it seems like a safe bet that the meeting will go through as planned. While Bautista would like to sign a multiyear deal with the club, the Blue Jays have yet to put an offer on the table.
Today, Fidlin implores Toronto to lock the 30-year-old up with a multiyear pact. It's possible, he says, that the club is wary of signing another monster deal after having just gotten themselves out from under two monster contracts in the past year-and-a-half. It's also possible that Alex Anthopoulos & Co. are wary of Bautista's shocking and sudden emergence as a primetime player. After hitting .238/.329/.400 from 2004 through 2009, the veteran broke out in 2010, hitting .260/.378/.617 with a staggering 54 home runs – eclipsing his previous watermark of 16.
There remains a considerable gap between the two sides as Bautista seeks $10.5MM while the Blue Jays are offering $7.6MM. Fidlin argues that the outcome of the hearing is rather inconsequential in the scheme of things. The club has a limited time to work out a long-term deal with the Super Two star and must get a deal done while they can. If you were in Anthopoulos' position, what would you do?
3 year – 27 million
i have no idea why Bautista would do that. He can take a 1yr/8million deal and potential get as much as 20million for each of the two following seasons with a repeat performance. I can see maybe a 2yr/20mil deal just so he has more security.
Jose bautista’s strategy:
addictinggames.com/baseballjuiced.html
im not sure what you mean but its still funny
I think the arbitrator will side with the Blue Jays because he’s never done it before. Then I think he’ll continue his great hitting and get traded mid season for a bevy of young, controllable prospects.
I’m guessing this is the case because the Jays apparently haven’t made a long term offer. No way they’re gonna take a chance on him not signing back with them after the season is over.
I hope AA gets some good ones though. 2010 HR leader and all 😉
i want to see him repeat. he came out of nowhere and is kind of unprecedented. i have a feeling that the jays want to see if he’s for real as well. although it will get a lot more expensive to lock him up after 2 awesome seasons… but every contract is a gamble isn’t it?
Ya know, I want to cheer for Bautista, he seems like an OK guy, but this reminds me too much of a Brady Anderson Situation…well, that’s not true. More like Adrian Beltre, who seems to have a great year followed by 5 lame ones…Or maybe he’s somewhere between those two guys. I can’t see him hitting 50+ again this year or ever. Maybe 32-34?
It really is a tough situation. I just don’t see an easy resolution. Bautista will want too much money for the Jays to lock him up to a reasonable deal now (something along the lines of what Kory suggested) and with Bautista hitting free agency next year, if he really believes he can repeat his 2010, which I’m sure he does, he has very little incentive to take the Jays offer – if there even is one.
I think AA is just going to have to let the year play out. If Bautista really does come close to his 2010 numbers again, then maybe you try to sign him as a free agent.
I think the other side of the issue is that the Jays aren’t sure what their real needs will be. There’s a possible scenario that sees Hechevarria earn his way to the Majors in 2012, which would push Escobar to second base, Hill (if he bounces back) to third base, and then Brett Lawrie to the outfield – eliminating Bautista’s role. Obviously, all of these things happening probably isn’t the most probable outcome, but it’s one that could present itself. And the Jays are probably leery of paying Bautista big money to fill 3B or RF, when they could have cheaper internal options that may produce just as well, assuming Bautista comes down to earth a fair bit.
Oakland, unlike Toronto, is in win now mode and needs a 3B (or even a RF after this year) and need a power hitter. If I were AA I would either let him walk, or trade Bautista to Oakland for prospects. He’s a great fit on the A’s.
Or sign him longterm, considering Jays have 0 depth in our minors for the outfield.
Anthony Gose?
I think he meant immediate depth. Mastroianni and Thames are probably the 2 closest to the MLB.
He said “in our minors for the outfield”. Either way it’s a pretty hilarious statement, clearly from someone not very familiar with the Jays’ farm system. The number of outfielders on the way up is one of the main reasons the Jays might let Bautista go.
Actually i probably know alot, my basis is on the fact that i dont feel anyone other then gose having a legit shot at becoming a regular at the mlb level. Gose is mainly for the defensive side, his bat would have to improve alot to be an upgrade over bautista. All your selections are long shots at best, gose is the only one who is remotely close to being a lock in the outfield, and even still i dont think his bat will be anythign special.
except for anthony gose, eric thames and travis snider. if you take them out of the equation then they have no depth, but they are in the equation, so…..
Jake Marisnick? Michael Crouse? Darin Mastroianni?
Moises Sierra?
Reed Johnson? Devon White?
Enos Slaughter
I’ve been suggesting doing a dual option contract. Lower player option with a higher team option. So if Bautista has a bad year he has the security of a minimum he would make the next year… and the team option is for if he reproduces the output of 2010. Accepting either option would negate the other.
As I have said before, it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. The Blue Jays can give him a reasonable extension and watch him continue to put up monster numbers, at which point he will become disgruntled for pulling the trigger too early and missing out on tens of millions, becoming another Juan Gonzalez cautionary tale of sorts, or he’ll take a one year deal and try to repeat, come back down to earth and end up with a mediocre free agent contract (like 2 years/$15MM or something). They’re basically betting against themselves because right now it’d be pure insanity to give him, say 6 years/$100MM, but if he puts up the same numbers next year, that contract will sound quite reasonable. There are just too many question marks for any one scenario to make the most sense.
Remember when Joey Bats was a Pirate…. And He Sucked…. And Then He Left…. And He Go Boom…. That Was Cool….
joey bats: best nick name ever
No.
Just…
No.
Yes
It’s his twitter name.
it was his twitter name until the jays made him delete it
Release him outright and sign Kelly Gruber or…………………. Roy Howell.
I’d be really weary of giving him a huge deal. Like the other guy said, Toronto needs to figure out what their needs are. They might not even need an outfielder. If he has a huge first half, it might make more sense to sell him as a rental.
Offer him a reasonable 2 year deal. I don’t relish the idea of Joey Bats blocking Moises Sierra. Besides, he’s had ONE good year. Granted it was a monster year but unless he can prove he’s for real, year in & year out I’d be weary of overpaying him.
If Sierra pans out, he’s still at least 2 years away due to his 2010 season being derailed via injuries.
I would have traded him last year. His trade value will never be that high again.
No one would have been willing to pay for bautista’s value last year because its unproven…
So your ‘would have’ scenario doesn’t work
Ummm…Huh? That makes no sense, that thing you just wrote there. Nobody would trade for a guy that’s in the middle of a monster season because he hadn’t proven that he was having a monster season?
No one was going to pay for him as a 50 HR hitter..
You think other teams we’re like oh, he’s for real, heres Mike Trout or Casey Kelly..
I don’t make sense to you because you’re wrong
Yeah. In a year where Octavio Dotel is fetching a pair of top 10 prospects, I can’t imagine anybody would have given up anything of value for a guy who already had over 30 HR at the All Star break. LOL @ you.
Top 10 prospects? care to check that again there champ?
Both aren’t even top 100 prospects…. they were top 10 in a very bad farm system
Don’t change argument mid way to try to save face.
The fact of the matter is that no one was going to give up a top 50 prospect for bautista, so AA didn’t bother trading him..
He also did that with Downs, Frasor, and Gregg… If he couldn’t get anything useful, he wanted the picks..
Sorry, you lose.
Oh my. You thought I meant top 10 prospects in all of baseball? Like the Pirates managed to trade Dotel to multiple teams? Didn’t think I had to dumb things down quite THAT much, but now I know.
…but sure. Let’s stick to the argument.
I said a player should be traded when he is at his highest value. You said it’s impossible to trade a player when he is at his highest level. Then you made a horrible, horrible strawman about how the Blue Jays wouldn’t have even been able to get Mike Trout.
So far, you have yet to actually make a point, so for now I will just continue to sit here and laugh at you until you manage to actually MAKE an argument. Or, you can just sit there and pound your chest and declare yourself a winner, if that makes you feel good too. Either way, I’m sure to get a laugh at your expense.
I didn’t realize I was arguing with a child…
You said bautista should have been traded when his value was at its “highest”
and my point ( yes I had one, you just cared to overlook it because you have no defense for it)
Is that no team would be willing to trade anything worthwhile for Jbau, because he has yet to prove he can be consistently good. So yes, they could have traded him for 2 B prospects, but they can also let him walk as a type A and possible acquire more than 2 B prospects.
So your point that his value will never be higher, is complete fluff.
Thats how you do it, that’s how you debate.
So they shouldn’t trade Bautista when his value is at the highest point, because some guy named Lunchbox doesn’t think they will get anything good for him. They should wait until he levels off and doesn’t have as high a trade value anymore, then trade him?
Now you seem to think his highest value is in letting him walk away for a draft pick?
That’s just all kinds of stupidity right there. Nice work!
Wow, you really suck at this..
I merely just proved that your point about his value being at his highest was completely wrong..
If he gets off to a good start this year, then maybe you’ll be able to trade him for something worth while.. Trading him for the sake of trading him is pointless, as is me arguing with a guy who knows nothing but leans to pathetic insults to try to get his worthless point across..
I’m done wasting my time on you. Especially when we’re arguing about something that could have happened last year, and reality has already proven me right.
LOL! All you’ve managed to do is declare yourself a winner in an argument you were never actually able to make. The only thing you’ve been able to prove is that you have no idea what the phrase “highest value” means. Congratulations.
lol okay whatever you say, I’ve proven his value wasn’t highest then, you don’t care to listen.
Pro tip: Just because you say something, doesn’t mean you proved it. Unless you think Bautista is ever going to have a BETTER season than he did last year, his value will never be higher than it was LAST year. It’s not exactly a difficult concept to comprehend. Keep working at it though. You’ll get there some day.
If you need someone to declare a winner, I will…and it wasn’t you. Lunchbox’s point (please correct me if I’m wrong) centered around the idea that AA is only interested in obtaining top flight prospects. If he can’t get that, he would rather take the compensation picks. Seeing as no team is going to surrender a blue chipper for a player midseason that could possibly be a one year wonder, then AA is going to take his chances by seeing if he can do it a second consecutive season. Chances are, Joey Bats is a type A free agent after this year unless he falls completely flat on his face. If he can prove himself with a half season that resembles 2010, then it validates his status as a genuine slugger and not a fluke, thereby increasing his value higher than it was last year.
As an aside, your half-assed attempts at condescending humor really fall flat when you have nothing substantial to add to the conversation.
Sooo…what you’re saying there is that he was at peak trade value last year? Gee, that kind of sounds familiar.
Here’s what I said: “I would have traded him last year. His trade value will never be that high again.”
Where exactly did I mention anything about blue chip prospects? Feel free to point that out for me, thanks.
Your reading comprehension is horrible. I said nothing of the sort.
You – “Here’s what I said: ‘I would have traded him last year. His trade value will never be that high again.'”
Me – “If he can prove himself with a half season that resembles 2010, then it validates his status as a genuine slugger and not a fluke, thereby increasing his value higher than it was last year.”
Word for word. How do you miss that?
The only mention I made of blue chip prospects was in reference to how AA operates. He would rather have one blue chip instead of 3 B prospects, for instance. That absolutely plays into Bautista’s value to the Blue Jays, whether or not you mentioned it.
…and you also said, “unless he falls completely flat on his face.”
Guess which one I think is going to happen. Go ahead. Guess.
Maybe if I draw you guys a picture, you’ll understand better. See if this works..
Jose Bautista:
Crap player
Crap player
Crap player
Crap player
Crap player
Crap player
BOOM, he hit some home runs
Crap player
Crap player
Crap player
There’s one spot in that series where I would have traded him. Can you guess where that spot is?
Nowhere did I ever say that Jose Bautista would return a blue chip prospect. He never will, because he’s a crap player. I would have taken advantage of that one freak moment where he wasn’t a crap player and gotten as much as I could and run. Do I sit there and hope that WHEN he regresses next year, he doesn’t totally regress back to the same crap player he’s always been and hope I can sneak a sandwich pick out of it? No thanks.
Do I THINK Bautista will fall flat on his face next year and lose all value he had? Absolutely. Do I KNOW that will happen? Of course not. But I’m not the one sitting here saying I “proved” that he’s going to have a great season and increase his value, am I? That would just be silly.
Yeah, this guy could be the next Chris Shelton. or Kevin Maas. An enduring talent and perennial star.
Which would explain why I thought they should trade him last year?
This Guy has Gary Mathews Jr written all over him. Go to arbitration and take your chances. He’s never hit moee than 16 home runs in a year before this one. 60 RBI’s once. Horrible move to lock him up long term with big bucks. Vernon Wells part II.
I have to agree with you on that.
Shows what you know.
Jays are not talking a long-term extension with Bautista right now and who is this anything remotely even close to Wells? Jesus christ… people do know Wells was one of the best centerfielders in the game before he signed the contract right? He didn’t just have one good year.
Point is mathews has been worthless since his contract. You said it…..before he signed contract….not after. He’s a flash in the pan…..accept it. He goes from 15-16 home runs per year for 4-5 years then hits over 50? Open your eyes bud and welcome to reality.
Itll be funnier once the season starts and Bautista shows everyone hes not a “flash in the pan”, and then everyone who was saying he was a fluke is now wanting him on there team lol… i cant wait for that.
Keep waiting buddy…..keep waiting. LOL.
good one.
Vernon Wells part 2?
Why don’t you take a trip to fangraphs and look at vdubs first couple of years.
He was never worth the contract, but Vernon when healthy is a good ball player
Drug test him. That’s what I would do.
you really think that hasnt been done?
It was done at least a half dozen times, actually. At random intervals.
That is the most idiotic comment I’ve ever seen.
Hopefully the first of many.
Yes, as well as the other 5000 “most idiotic comments ever”
They should drug test his beard. Players get tested at least twice a year.
??
agreed, i’ve always suspected the beard was the source of his true power
nice thinking. while were at it, lets put a man on the moon and add wheels to our suit cases…
hahahahahaa now thats funny!
it’s a joke…obviously
Good idea, maybe they can follow that up by giving you an IQ test?
I don’t think A.A will shell out for one year of production. Flip him for the best high end prospects and let someone else pay the big bucks…
exactly…they just got rid of two huge contracts for players with good / mediocre numbers, why jump right back into the same thing.
I think this almost gaurantees that AA will trade him before the deadline.
This is a somewhat related diatribe against MSM. Honestly, in this day and age, what value added analysis do columnists like this provide? To be fair to the Toronto Sun writer, Toronto fans are easily riled up so posting something like this will ratchet up the page hits and validate their existence in a dying medium. The analysis of the article was there is a whole bunch of negatives about a long-term contract, but JBaus “is a stud!” so the BJs owe it to the fans. I am willing to bet this guy (or his previous brethren) were all for the VWells contract when it was initially signed. The byline probably would have been something like “The Blue Jays show their fans that they are for real by locking up their franchise player”. How the hell do these people have jobs without providing any real analysis but for floating hypotheticals?!? Annoys the hell out of me….
The byline is the line that says who wrote the story
And he also seems to give a fairly balanced opinion. There are risks to signing him long term, but when compared to other free agents, he thinks a better deal can be signed for similar production to what Werth and Beltre will offer. It’s not at the highest level of baseball analysis, but the guy is writing for all baseball fans, hardcore and casual. Give him a break.
I think the Jays would be best served by paying whatever they have to pay in 2011 as long as they can keep the length to a one year deal. This way they can see if Bautista simply had his “Brady Anderson year” or if 2010 was simply a preview of the future.
If Bautista repeats, I could see a deal in the four to five year range. I think AA is too smart to do a Jayson Werth/Carl Crawford type of deal. AA would likely trade Bautista before handing out that type of change.
I’d say the 2 year 20 mil mark or 3/30, if Bautista accepts either. I believe the Jays fan base would rather keep him then trade him away. If he shows up in any way shape or form like he did last year, he is really a guy the Jays can build around.
This gives him some guaranteed money, but doesn’t lock up too much for the long term for the Jays. Hell, if he has another monsterous year, we can always extend it, ala Dave Steib.
This is what many of us have been advocating all along. I thought 3 years 30M right off the bat. But they either haven’t made the offer, or it’s not enough. Either way, it probably doesn’t matter now, as we are pretty much out of time.
I don’t think 3/30 gets him signed. With another big year he’s going to be the best outfielder on the free agent market and if he wins his arbitration hearing he’ll be getting his $10+m already. It would likely take more money, but the argument is the same….fans need to see a commitment to a core of players before they fully buy into AA’s plans and that “core” can’t be made up solely with players under the age of 25yrs old.
he’s going to be the most sought after guy on the trade market come July. I can def see AA finding multiple prospects for him when he does well again to start the year (hint: he’s going to do well to start the year).
i agree. i for one would be glad to see my angels let go of some prospects for the guy. solves the third base situation.
Garrett Richards & Jean Segura…they don’t get the same ink as Trout but they’re both big upside guys who are just starting to get some hype
He goes to a playoff contender (pro note: angels aren’t going to be good this year… Rangers and A’s are going to be a mile better than LAA).
thank you for your insightful comments… can i get tomorrows lotto numbers too?
Stupid, irresponsible Toronto media. They have NO idea what is going on in those negotiations. For all they know Bautista could be looking for 5 years 70M. Now with this kind of press it’s going to be “Jays unwilling to spend to lock up players” if they can’t get a deal done even if it’s 100% Bautista’s fault.
it’s really annoying to me how people still doubt bautista’s talent. yes, it was a breakout year, but it wasn’t luck. he changed his approach, his swing, and came away with a good year, but all sports media can talk about is how weary gm’s might be. if i were a gm, id let ppl be wary and snatch him up midseason for a handful of prospects. easily.
I think they should have traded him last year during the season, just because they were going to find themselves in this position, of having to pay for a career year for a guy who up until last year had only hit 59 HR’s in his entire career. The team is going young anyway, why not drop him for some blue chip prospects? Go ahead AA turn Robinson Diaz into another piece of that future world series team.
because no one is prepared to give up blue chip prospects for bautista at this point
AA hasn’t shown anything to me that suggests he’ll take a risk on a long-term signing, at least to this point. I think they keep Bautista this year on whatever arbitration figure and see how the year plays out. If Bautista repeats his awesomeness, the Jays will offer a modest multi-year, unless someone bowls them over in a trade proposal beforehand. If they can’t outbid whoever else would want him, he’s a Type A and the Jays get 2 picks. That’s been AA’s philosophy so far.
yes, thats been his philosophy so far. but at a certain point he needs to keep onfield talent.. He’s already turned the farm in to a top 5 from a bottom 5, now its time to start building an on field winner.
I’m sorry, but when I see a jump in #s like that, I think the same thing the rest of the world is…HGH…he’s Brady Anderson, he’ll hit 30 tops this year. _Pay him, thank him, don’t get wrapped up in anything long term.
30 is a bad thing????
nature of the beast, i suppose, but i still facepalmed at this.
Once again, someone throwing out the HGH theory. Have you seen him? The guy is 6’0″ and 195 lbs. Has been his entire career. He is lean. HGH would turn him into a 6′, 230 lbs monster. It is a Human “GROWTH” Homone! His current size and look would be more condussive to thinking he was on a brand of steroids that help with lean muscle. But considering the Jays have said he was tested between 5-6 times last year, you have to rule out the ‘roids. Stop with the HGH crap. It just doesnt jive in this case. There are no supporting arguments to prove it other than the fact he had a breakout year.
I guess no one is allowed to become better without HGH being the explanation.
Watch videa from him swing pre-August 2009 and then watch it post August 2009 and you will see the difference. The pitch of the swing has changed to make it slightly more of an uppercut. The step into the pitch is less pronounced and starts far earlier in the pitchers delivery. He stays away from the outside pitches and turns on everything pitched middle/in driving from left center to the left field pole. He is also standing closer to the plate.
As much as I hated Cito, there is one thing you can say for the man. He can detect a pitcher tipping off his pitches as well as anyone maybe in the history of baseball. It was a trademark of the world series Blue Jays of the early 90’s, and a smart hitter can pick up those same traits.
He basically went from a line drive hitter shooting laser beams to the wall for doubles to a small uppercut hitter shooting laser beams into the first deck.
Now, all of that said, Do I expect him to hit 50+ again this year? No, how could you? Those are magical numbers that came about in a perfect storm season of where pitchers and opposing pitching coaches didn’t see him coming. He will be pitched around, he will be pitched outside more often, there will be a plan for him to start the season. But if last year’s month by month numbers proved anything (including spring training), he is and was fully capable to adapting his approach at the plate to counter any adjustment made by the pitcher. We are talking about one of the most consistent HR years in the history of baseball. Not since Griffey has anyone lead the majors in HR’s for 4 out of 6 months.
Give the guy his friggin’ due…
his beard is on hgh.
i dont care what you say
From AA’s perspective, I can’t see any reason really to sign him to a long term contract right now.
The Jays don’t expect to even have a shot at making the playoffs for another 2 years. Even if Jose repeats this year, it won’t get the into the playoffs, so basically Jose will have to repeat 30-40 HRs 3 or 4 times in a row for them to get some use out of his hitting (so round age 33, 34). Instead, they could just save the 20 million of salary that they would have spent on him between now and when they’re expecting to contend, and use it in a bigger push for whoever is on the market 2 years from now.
AA probably wins arbitration; if Jose has a regression year, the price is much lower if they want to sign him in the offseason. If he has another great year, he’s part of the deal to bring a potentially elite bat in the minors over in a trade with a contender at the deadline.
Signing him long term just isn’t a tactically good move.