Previewing Jaime Garcia’s Arbitration Debut
If Jaime Garcia keeps pitching like this, David Price and Clayton Kershaw won’t be the only first-time arbitration eligible left-handers worth following this offseason. Garcia, the third-place finisher in last year’s National League Rookie of the Year balloting, enters tonight's start leading the league in wins and shutouts and third in the Senior Circuit with a 1.89 ERA.
The 24-year-old has thrown 300 fewer innings than Kershaw and 175 fewer frames than Price, so his salary doesn’t figure to approach $6MM in 2012, as theirs might. Tommy John surgery sidelined the Cardinals lefty in 2009, so he trails some other first-time arbitration eligible pitchers in important categories like wins, innings and strikeouts.
However, Garcia doesn’t compare well with Shaun Marcum and Francisco Liriano, who are also veterans of Tommy John surgery. Both pitchers entered the arbitration process for the first time with little leverage, as their respective platform years were poor (Marcum missed the 2009 season and Liriano's '09 campaign was a dud).
Garcia, on the other hand, figures to have lots of positives on his side this winter. He's 5-0 with an ERA under 2.00 and four times as many strikeouts as walks. Throw in an All-Star appearance, some postseason success or some Cy Young votes and his case would become even stronger. If he stays healthy, he’ll earn far, far more than what Liriano ($1.6MM) and Marcum ($850K) earned their first time through arbitration.
Jordan Zimmermann, another Tommy John veteran who will go to arbitration for the first time this winter, doesn't measure up to Garcia in terms of career numbers, and isn't off to the same blazing start. On the other hand, Max Scherzer has pitched tremendously (6-0, 3.20 ERA, 51 Ks) so far and figures to have a stronger case than Garcia this winter because of the superior length and consistency of his career contribution.
Looking back a year, there's Phil Hughes, who was born just two weeks before Garcia. He's another starter who went to arbitration without impressive ‘bulk’ stats. It won’t be easy, but Garcia could match the 31 career wins, 369 innings and 323 strikeouts Hughes had after 2010. And given his current pace, the Cardinals lefty could finish with a markedly better ERA, both for his career and his platform season (Hughes had a career 4.20 ERA after last year). That would help push Garcia’s 2012 earnings beyond Hughes’ current $2.7MM salary.
There's no way Garcia will match the 51 wins or 671 2/3 innings Jered Weaver had when he went to arbitration for the first time, so Garcia can likely forget about a $4.365MM salary. But his career 2.72 ERA is a full run better than the 3.73 mark Weaver had after 2009, which will help Garcia and his representatives at TWC Sports.
There’s little point in getting overly precise with arbitration predictions when so much of the season lies ahead, but it’s clear that Garcia could earn $3-4MM in 2012. Definite success for a pitcher who missed an entire season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
Amateur Draft Glossary
The draft is less than three weeks away, which means it's time to track the top amateur players in the country and which teams are interested in them. Given the amount of rules, jargon and deadlines involved with the draft, it doesn't hurt to review some key dates and concepts. Here are a few terms from MLBTR's Hot Stove Glossary:
- Here's how the draft order is determined. River Ave. Blues has the 2011 order.
- Draft order depends heavily on free agent compensation.
- There's a deadline for signing draft picks, usually August 15th.
- Each year, the commissioner's office issues recommended bonuses for draft picks.
- Clubs can distribute bonuses differently to two-sport athletes.
- Check out our Draft Prospect Q&A series.
AL Central Notes: Royals, McPherson, LaPorta
Harmon Killebrew passed away today at the age of 74 after a battle with esophageal cancer, the Twins announced. MLBTR extends its condolences to the Hall of Famer's family and friends and the Twins organization. Here are today's notes on the AL Central…
- Royals analyst Rany Jazayerli checks in on nine top Kansas City prospects, including Danny Duffy, who will be called up tomorrow. For more on Duffy's promotion, click here.
- Former top prospect Dallas McPherson is returning to the Majors to replace Mark Teahen on the White Sox, the team announced. The White Sox added McPherson to their 40-man roster (they still have four empty spots).
- Joe Pawlikowski of FanGraphs asks where Matt LaPorta's power has disappeared to this month. The Indians' first baseman hasn't homered in May and has just four home runs for the season, but his batting line is a healthy .274/.354/.487 thanks to ten doubles. The centerpiece in the 2008 C.C. Sabathia trade, LaPorta could still become a useful player, according to Pawlikowski.
Service Time Implications For Danny Duffy’s Debut
Eric Hosmer rewarded the Royals for promoting him aggressively instead of taking a more cautious financial approach and delaying his debut. Less than two weeks into Hosmer's big league career, he has two home runs and an .848 OPS. Now, one of Hosmer's former minor league teammates is on his way to Kansas City for his MLB debut.
Left-handed pitching prospect Danny Duffy will start for the Royals on Wednesday, according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. For the second time in a month, GM Dayton Moore is calling on his young players despite the possibility that the early promotions will mean the players go to arbitration four times instead of three and cost the team millions in the process.
That’s not to say that Duffy's early promotion will cost the Royals. The upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement and the unpredictability of future super two cutoffs make it nearly impossible to predict with certainty. Plus, if the Royals option Duffy to the minors for at least 20 days at some point between now and the end of 2013, it's likely that he will only go to arbitration three times.
Duffy will have 134 days of service time if he stays in the Majors for the entire 2011 season. If he collects a full year of service time in 2012 and 2013, he’d likely qualify for salary arbitration after ’13 and go through the potentially lucrative process four times (though that’s subject to collective bargaining and the variable super two cutoff). He’s definitely not going to be eligible for free agency until after 2017 – the Royals assured themselves of that by keeping him in the minors for April.
Six weeks into the season, it's not hard to see why the Royals called the 22-year-old up. The former third rounder entered the season as the seventh-best prospect in Kansas City’s stacked system, according to Baseball America (68th in MLB). Duffy’s first seven starts against Triple-A hitters have been impressive; he now has a tidy 3.00 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
There’s something to be said for calling on prospects – especially pitchers – when they’re ready, instead of obsessing over service time. The Royals need arms after last night’s drubbing at the hands of the Indians and Duffy appears to be the best option they have. There are risks involved with the move, just as there are advantages. It’s too early to tell for sure, but the unexpectedly early callup could provide Duffy with just enough service time to qualify for arbitration an extra time.
Astros Links: Crane, Draft
The Astros are in the midst of a lost season; about a month ago I looked at the players they could move if they become trade deadline sellers. That storyline may heat up in July, but right now it's all about Jim Crane's purchase of the club. Today's links:
- Crane will be in the draft room with Astros management for the June 6th draft, reports ESPN's Buster Olney. However, Crane's purchase won't be approved by MLB by then, so he'll just be observing Ed Wade, Bobby Heck, and company. The Astros have the 11th overall pick in the draft.
- The Astros have to be smarter, explains Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle.
- In a column for MLB.com, former Astros manager Larry Dierker opines that Crane will have a "pretty good head start" on building the Astros from the ground up.
Free Agent Starting Pitching Leaderboards
We checked in on the free agent offensive leaderboards yesterday; now let's see how starting pitchers stack up a quarter of the way through the season.
ERA
- Hiroki Kuroda – 3.21
- C.J. Wilson – 3.38
- C.C. Sabathia – 3.47
- Jason Marquis – 3.54
- Bruce Chen – 3.59
SIERA (minimum 40 innings)
- Bartolo Colon – 3.30
- Ryan Dempster – 3.62
- Hiroki Kuroda – 3.82
- C.C. Sabathia – 3.92
- Chris Carpenter – 4.02
Innings pitched
1. C.J. Wilson – 61 1/3
2. Mark Buehrle, C.C. Sabathia – 59 2/3
4. Livan Hernandez – 57 1/3
5. Brad Penny – 57
Strikeouts per nine innings
- Ryan Dempster – 8.6
- Bartolo Colon – 8.5
- C.C. Sabathia – 7.5
- C.J. Wilson – 7.34
- Edwin Jackson - 7.28
Walks per nine innings
- Jeff Francis – 1.67
- Jason Marquis – 1.69
- Bartolo Colon – 2.1
- Hiroki Kuroda – 2.2
- Mark Buehrle – 2.6
Groundball rate
- Brad Penny – 54.0%
- Paul Maholm – 52.4%
- Jason Marquis – 51.7%
- Jeff Francis – 49.5%
- Hiroki Kuroda – 48.5%
Average fastball velocity
1. Edwin Jackson – 93.8 mph
2. C.C. Sabathia – 92.8
3. Brad Penny – 92.0
4. Chris Carpenter, Bartolo Colon – 91.8
Yankees Sign Randy Flores
The Yankees signed lefty reliever Randy Flores to a minor league deal, reports Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. The deal includes an opt-out, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the opt-out is before the All-Star break.
Flores, 35, opted out of his minor league deal with the Padres on Sunday. Four teams expressed interest in the CAA client, tweets Sherman. Flores faced lefties about 61% of the time, posting a 9.5 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 against them.
Mike Axisa profiled Flores at River Ave. Blues yesterday, noting that Yankees lefties Pedro Feliciano, Damaso Marte, and Kei Igawa are unusable currently, leaving Boone Logan as the team's only lefty reliever. Flores was drafted by the Yankees in the ninth round in 1997 and later traded to the Rangers in the Randy Velarde deal of '01.
Brewers Designate Sean Green For Assignment
The Brewers designated reliever Sean Green for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot for catcher Mike Rivera, reports Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
Green, 32, posted a 5.40 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 58.1% groundball rate with no home runs allowed in 11 2/3 innings this year. He averaged only 84.5 mph on his fastball, the lowest velocity for all relievers aside from Tim Wakefield. Green had signed an $875K deal with the Brewers in December after being non-tendered by the Mets.
Blue Jays Release Chad Cordero
The Blue Jays released reliever Chad Cordero from their Triple-A club, reports Todd Dewey of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
Cordero, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Jays in January. Cordero had 128 career saves under his belt as a 25-year-old with the Nationals, but he had surgery to repair a labrum tear in his shoulder in July of '08. Since then he has been a part of the Mariners, Mets, and Jays organizations. This year at Triple-A he posted an 8.66 ERA, 3.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 2.5 HR/9 in 17 2/3 innings, a departure from his Triple-A work of 2010.
Conor Glassey’s Draft Overview
Baseball America's Conor Glassey posted a draft overview yesterday, and it appears to be free to all. A few highlights:
- Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Danny Hultzen, Francisco Lindor, and Bubba Starling are in the Pirates' mix for the first overall pick, writes Glassey. Pirates scouting director Greg Smith told Glassey he's more prepared for this first overall pick than he was when he drafted Matt Anderson with the Tigers in 1997. There is no obvious number one overall talent, in Glassey's opinion. High school pitcher Dylan Bundy could be a longshot for first overall, writes Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein in this free article. Goldstein also ranks his top 20, so be sure to check that out.
- One NL scouting director told Glassey he hasn't seen this kind of depth in a draft at any point in the 2000s. This draft features a lot of high-velocity pitchers, though it's light on impact college bats and up-the-middle players. Glassey notes that "many premium players are from non-traditional states." One such example a little further down the draft might be Ben Roberts, a high school outfielder out of Montana who participated in his first showcase recently.
- 2011 could be the last year without a hard slotting system, prompting some to assume teams will go crazy spending. One NL scouting director Glassey spoke to expressed skepticism about that possibility.
- Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison echoes the velocity sentiment in this Bill Chastain article for MLB.com: "This is the most guys I've ever seen who are throwing mid-90s." The Rays have 12 picks between #24 and #89, and Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Chastain the team has "planned in advance for this Draft and the expected financial outlay for this many players in the top of the Draft."