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Archives for May 2011

Quick Hits: Posting System, Wright, Phillies

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Royals southpaw Danny Duffy makes his MLB debut tonight against the Rangers, a team that hits lefties well with players such as Michael Young and Mike Napoli.  Read about the service time implications for Duffy here, and predict his debut line in the comments.  Today's links:

  • NPB will review the posting system, reports Patrick Newman.  One interesting suggestion from Rakuten is to award negotiating rights to the top three bidders.
  • Third baseman David Wright talked to ESPN Radio New York's Mike Lupica about his future with the team, saying he wants to finish his career with the Mets.  Listen here and read the transcript here.
  • Great article from ESPN's Jerry Crasnick, who ranks ugly endings for beloved players, complete with "animosity quotients."
  • The Phillies' biggest need is a right-handed bat, writes David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Twins' Michael Cuddyer could be a feasible fit.  Cuddyer, however, is earning $10.5MM this season.  Earlier today I tossed the Phillies in as a speculative match for left-handed bat Garrett Jones.  It's admittedly a rough gauge, but the Phillies' OPS against righties ranks 13th in the NL while their OPS against lefties ranks sixth.

Rockies Measuring Trade Interest In Paulino, Morales

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The Rockies are "expected to continue measuring trade interest" in hard-throwing pitchers Felipe Paulino and Franklin Morales, reports Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.  At least one NL Central team has expressed interest in Morales, he adds.  Both pitchers are out of options, so the Rockies can't demote them without exposing them to waivers.

Paulino, 27, was acquired from the Astros in November for Clint Barmes.  He throws hard and gets strikeouts, but allows tons of hits and plenty of walks and home runs.  He's relieving now, but has 34 career starts to his name.  Paulino missed a good chunk of 2010 with a shoulder injury. 

Morales, 25, was considered the eighth best prospect in all of baseball prior to the 2008 season, according to Baseball America.  He has a higher profile than Paulino, having made a couple of playoff starts in '07 and served as the Rockies' closer at times.  There might be five or six lefties in the Majors who throw harder than Morales.  However, he's prone to flyballs and walks and has also battled shoulder injuries.  Paulino and Morales are projects, so they make the most sense for non-contenders.

If The Pirates Become Sellers

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The Pirates haven't finished above .500 since 1992, back when Jose Tabata was a toddler.  They've lost six in a row, so that goal may be slipping out of reach for 2011.  If GM Neal Huntington decides to trade veterans for prospects, as he has many times before, who might be available?

  • Catcher Chris Snyder is earning $5.75MM this year and has a $750K buyout due after the season.  Ryan Doumit is at $5.1MM with a $500K buyout coming.  The D'Backs picked up part of the tab on Snyder, some of which the Pirates might have to send along to another team if they wish to move him again.  I think Doumit will continue to be the catcher they prefer to trade, and he is healthy and hitting currently.  Of course, Doumit hasn't caught 800 innings in a season since '08.
  • Southpaw Paul Maholm has a reasonable $5.75MM salary, plus a $750K buyout after the season if his option is declined.  The groundballer owns a solid 3.67 ERA through nine starts, six of them quality.  If he keeps up the good work it'll take more than salary relief to acquire him, though as ESPN's Buster Olney notes, he's a guy who "might not be suited to go head-to-head with teams in the AL East."
  • First baseman Lyle Overbay might be best-served as a platoon bat.  Another impending free agent, shortstop Ronny Cedeno, has been showing signs of life in May.  The pair make about $7MM this year, and trading them would be about unloading some salary. 
  • Another position player, Garrett Jones, projects to be arbitration eligible after the season as a Super Two.  He has a .281/.363/.496 career line against righties, which would be helpful to teams such as the Dodgers, Athletics, Phillies, and Tigers.  Between his low salary, years of control, and ability to help as a platoon bat, Jones has trade value.
  • Kevin Correia and Matt Diaz were perhaps the headliners in the Pirates' offseason, signing two-year free agent deals.  Correia could be dealt for something useful in theory, though his 4.87 SIERA is more representative than his 3.97 ERA if his peripherals don't improve.
  • The Pirates' bullpen has a solid 3.34 ERA, though that's only good for 10th in the NL.  Potential targets: closer Joel Hanrahan, lefty Joe Beimel, and righties Jose Veras and Chris Resop.  Veras and Resop are tied for fifth in the league in relief strikeouts with 26 each, and Veras' K/9 ranks fourth in the league.  Hanrahan's strikeout rate has oddly dropped, but groundballs are way up, walks are down, he's throwing harder, and he's 11 for 11 in save opportunities.  He's earning $1.4MM this year and is under team control through 2013.  July might be the time to sell high and maximize his value.
  • We've previously tackled the Diamondbacks, Twins, and Astros as potential sellers, so check out those posts.

Each Team’s Draft Picks

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The amateur draft begins on June 6th this year.  Once the second round concludes, 90 players will have been drafted – 33 in the first round, 27 in the supplemental round, and 30 in the second round.  Courtesy of the 2011 draft order at River Ave. Blues, here's a look at which picks each team has within the first 90.

  • Rays (12): #24, 31, 32, 38, 41, 42, 52, 56, 59, 60, 75, 89
  • Blue Jays (7): #21, 35, 46, 53, 57, 74, 78
  • Padres (6): #10, 25, 48, 54, 58, 82
  • Red Sox (5): #19, 26, 36, 40, 81
  • Diamondbacks (4): #3, 7, 43, 63
  • Twins (4): #30, 50, 55, 87
  • Nationals (3): #6, 23, 34
  • Brewers (3): #12, 15, 70
  • Mets (3): #13, 44, 71
  • Rockies (3): #20, 45, 77
  • Giants (3): #29, 49, 86
  • Rangers (3): #33, 37, 83
  • Phillies (3): #39, 66, 90
  • Pirates (2): #1, 61
  • Mariners (2): #2, 62
  • Orioles (2): #4, 64
  • Royals (2): #5, 65
  • Indians (2): #8, 67
  • Cubs (2): #9, 68
  • Astros (2): #11, 69
  • Marlins (2): #14, 72
  • Dodgers (2): #16, 73
  • Cardinals (2): #22, 79
  • Reds (2): #27, 84
  • Braves (2): #28, 85
  • White Sox (2): #47, 80
  • Yankees (2): #51, 88
  • Angels (1): #17
  • Athletics (1): #18
  • Tigers (1): #76

2012 Contract Issues: New York Yankees

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The Yankees are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series.  Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:

Eligible For Free Agency (6)

  • In one of the year's biggest surprises, Bartolo Colon's name is all over the leaderboard for free agent starters.  An offseason stem cell treatment was a factor, a procedure that was unknown to GM Brian Cashman at the time of the signing and is being investigated by MLB.  If Colon is not linked to HGH and his stellar pitching continues for the remaining three quarters of the season, he has to be looking at at least a nice one-year deal north of $5MM.
  • Jorge Posada has been a source of drama but not offensive production this season.  I'm guessing the Yankees move on from Posada, who has hit 267 home runs for them to date.
  • Former stars Andruw Jones and Eric Chavez are bench players on one-year deals; Chavez was hitting well when he hit the DL for a foot injury.
  • Freddy Garcia has a 3.22 ERA on the season, hanging in there in most of his six starts.  Will he do enough to warrant a big league deal after the season?
  • Luis Ayala will also be eligible for free agency.    

Contract Options (5)

  • Robinson Cano: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  This should be an easy decision to exercise for the Yankees.
  • Nick Swisher: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  Swisher's option seemed like an easy choice to exercise, but his bat has yet to come alive in 160 plate appearances this year.  He's got time to bounce back, but the option is not a lock.    
  • Damaso Marte: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Marte is likely out for the season with October labrum surgery, in which case the Yankees will have gotten 31 innings for their $12MM.
  • C.C. Sabathia: Can opt out of remaining four years, $92MM.  Most expect Sabathia to opt out, though he certainly could re-sign with the Yankees.  GM Brian Cashman told ESPN's Buster Olney he'll stick with his policy of avoiding in-season negotiations, but "we fully expect him to be here."  Sabathia's overall numbers look solid, though he's scuffled in May.  If Sabathia does reach the open market, he'll probably be the best available free agent starter, as he was in the 2008-09 offseason when he received the biggest contract ever for a pitcher.
  • Rafael Soriano: Can opt out of remaining two years, $25MM.  Even without knowledge of Soriano's current elbow concerns, I wrote two months ago that Soriano is unlikely to opt out of his contract after the season.  This offseason when he does choose to stick with the contract, don't blame the opt-out clause.  Without it, all the money still would have been guaranteed to him.      

Arbitration Eligible (8)

From the Yankees' standpoint, none of these cases should be daunting.  This is only Gardner's second full season, and he doesn't have power, so his arbitration reward will probably be $3MM or less.  Hughes' issues will limit his raise to perhaps a million dollars at most.  Raises for relievers Robertson, Chamberlain, and Logan won't be crazy either.  Martin's hot hitting has tailed off this month.  He could still get a bump to $6MM+, depending on how the rest of his season goes.  I'll use a rough estimate of $17MM to retain the team's arbitration eligibles.

2012 Payroll Obligation

The Yankees' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $140.875MM if options for Swisher and Marte are declined, Cano's option is exercised, Sabathia opts out, and Soriano does not.  That goes up to around $158MM with the arbitration eligibles, about $49MM short of this year's payroll before accounting for minimum salary players.  If Sabathia is re-signed at a $25MM salary for 2012, that still leaves $24MM in '12 salaries to work with before raising payroll.  That'd be enough for Swisher or a replacement, as well as some kind of starting pitching signing to go with Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Ivan Nova.  Cashman could find $6MM more with a bump to the 2010 payroll of $213MM. 

The Yankees should be able to address their issues without taking payroll much higher.  If Sabathia leaves, it could be another situation where they struggle to find a good way to spend the excess cash.

Quick Hits: D’Backs, Martinez, Killebrew

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Links for Tuesday night, after a memorable two-homer day for Brian McCann…  

  • Former D'Backs manager Bob Melvin has returned to the organization as a special baseball advisor, according to MLB.com's Steve Gilbert.
  • Patrick Newman of FanGraphs checks in on some former Major Leaguers who are now playing in Japan.
  • Victor Martinez told MLB.com's Jason Beck that he has no hard feelings toward his former team, the Red Sox. "I have nothing but great things to say about the organization, the city, the fans," Martinez said. "It was one of my great experiences in my big league career." Tomorrow Martinez returns to Boston for the first time since signing with the Tigers.
  • Paul Molitor told Jim Caple of ESPN.com that he grew up idolizing fellow Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew, who passed away today. For more reflections on the popular "lumberjack type" slugger, check out Caple's piece.

Make Or Break Year: How Are They Doing?

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Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency. Now that we're at the quarter pole for the 2011 season, let's check in on the lucky 13 players (all links go to the MLBTR posts):

  • Scott Kazmir - Kazmir, now on the DL, has appeared in one game this year and he allowed five runs, five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings. I'll be surprised if he signs a guaranteed contract this winter.
  • Nate McLouth – McLouth was coming off a poor 2010 season, but the results are much better in 2011. He has a .262/.355/.379 line, though UZR/150 suggests his defense in center field has been poor since 2009.
  • Grady Sizemore – After missing most of 2010 with a knee surgery that required microfracture surgery, Sizemore returned with a vengeance, only to hit the disabled list with an injury to his other knee. In 18 games before he got hurt, Sizemore posted a .282/.333/.641 line with six homers.
  • Ryan Doumit - Though he has only stepped to the plate 82 times, Doumit has a healthy .278/.358/.458 batting line. The switch-hitter has been available in trades for a while and it wouldn't be surprising to see him dealt this summer.
  • Jonathan Broxton – Broxton is on the disabled list with a bruised right elbow and there's no timetable for his return. If he doesn't pitch well later this season, he will be overshadowed by this offseason's strong crop of free agent relief pitchers.
  • Joel Zumaya - Zumaya had elbow surgery a week ago today and is now resting and rehabbing. It's not clear that he'll return to the Tigers this year.
  • Casey Blake – Blake required surgery for an elbow infection and could return to the Dodgers soon. Before he got hurt, the 37-year-old had a .956 OPS in 66 plate appearances.
  • Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez is off to a so-so .287/.347/.368 start, but his power can sneak up on people, as it did last year when he hit 19 homers after July 5th.
  • Edwin Jackson - Still just 27, Jackson has a 4.53 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 55 2/3 innings. His name appears multiple times on the leaderboard for free agent starters.
  • Bobby Abreu - The 37-year-old doesn't have much power at this stage in his career (.327 slugging, .072 isolated power), but you won't find many hitters capable of a .377 OBP.
  • Carlos Beltran - Beltran has rebounded in a big way this year. The way he's hitting (.286/.381/.564, 8 homers) he'll be among the most appealing free agents available after the season. I suggested this spring that he and agent Scott Boras could ask for a multiyear deal and that seems even more likely now.
  • Matt Capps - Capps hasn't walked anyone in 18 1/3 innings and he has five saves and a 3.93 ERA. The 27-year-old's value doesn't appear to have changed much this year.
  • Jeff Francis - Though Francis is 0-5 with a 4.83 ERA, he has averaged 6.0 innings per start for the Royals and has a respectable 27K/10BB ratio. The left-hander seems healthy after consecutive seasons with shoulder issues.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Bautista, Orioles

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On this date two years ago, right-hander Andy Sonnanstine hit third against the Indians after Joe Maddon made an error in filling out his lineup card. Sonnanstine had an RBI double and the Rays won. Here's a round of links from the AL East… 

  • Alex Speier of WEEI.com tells the story of 2006 draft pick Kris Johnson, whom the Red Sox released recently. Boston selected Johnson before Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and others, though Speier points out that the draft is an imperfect science and notes that the Red Sox had their reasons for selecting the left-hander at the time.
  • Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista tells Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he doesn't put himself in the same category as Albert Pujols because the Cardinals first baseman has succeeded for a decade. It's becoming clear that Bautista is the best hitter in the game – at least in 2011.
  • As ESPN.com's Buster Olney notes, the AL East will be a summer-long grind, as the Yankees deal with age, the Red Sox deal with issues at the back of their rotation and the Rays try to keep winning without financial flexibility (Twitter link).
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com previews some Orioles roster moves: Brandon Snyder and Troy Patton will likely take the places of the injured Derrek Lee and Cesar Izturis.

Keith Law’s First Mock Draft

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There is still a lot that can and will change between now and the amateur draft in three weeks, but that didn't stop ESPN's Keith Law from posting his first mock draft today. It's an Insider-only piece, but here are the important points…

  • The Pirates are considering Gerrit Cole and Anthony Rendon, and have "done their due diligence" on Dylan Bundy. Law notes that "under Neal Huntington the Pirates have long considered value relative to cost in their drafts, sometimes preferring to spend less in the first round when they see opportunities to spend their savings on other appealing prospects in later rounds." He has them taking Danny Hultzen first overall.
  • Everyone Law has spoken to says the Mariners will take Rendon as long as the medicals check out, and he hears from the very good source that there is nothing structural wrong with the Rice third baseman's shoulder.
  • The Diamondbacks will take Hultzen third overall if he's available, and they're hoping for Bundy or Trevor Bauer with the seventh overall pick. That pick is compensation for failing to sign Barret Loux last year.
  • The Orioles have interest in Bundy, Bauer, and Jed Bradley with the fourth pick. Law emphasizes that everyone has told him the Royals want a college pitcher with the fifth pick. The Indians have their eyes on Bauer for eighth overall.
  • High school outfielder Brandon Nimmo is looking for $2MM, and Law has him going to the Rays with the 32nd pick.

AL West Notes: Ackley, Braden, Weaver

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It's still a little early to be thinking about trades, but the Mariners are contemplating a big mid-season addition nonetheless. Here's the latest…

  • Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times hears that the Mariners aren't in a rush to promote Dustin Ackley, though they like what they've seen from him at the plate. Baker says the Mariners don't want to risk paying Ackley for four years of arbitration when his glove isn't ready. Despite Ackley's hitting, they don't feel he's ready defensively.
  • Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner hears that the Mariners could call on Ackley as soon as tomorrow. The hot-hitting prospect homered today and the Mariners aren't worried about the possibility that Ackley will qualify for super two status, according to Cameron. Ackley would have a good chance at qualifying for arbitration four times if he gets the call tomorrow and stays in the Majors.
  • Dallas Braden underwent successful surgery to repair a torn capsule in his left shoulder, the A’s announced. The left-hander is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
  • As Tom Verducci of SI.com explains, Angels ace Jered Weaver has become a strikeout pitcher in spite of his "pipe cleaner legs" and 90 mph fastball. Weaver could double his $7.365MM salary in 2012 thanks to those strikeout numbers, as MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained in detail earlier this month.

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