The odds say the Red Sox have a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs, but I'm guessing that's not going to console most Red Sox fans. Boston leads Tampa Bay by three games in the Wild Card race, but that gap might have been wider by now if they had made different moves at the trade deadline. Alex Speier of WEEI.com has the details on the deadline deals that didn't happen…
- When the Red Sox made cursory inquiries about Doug Fister, it became clear that the Mariners were aiming high and looking for a right-handed bat. Since joining the Tigers, Fister has a 2.28 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 51 1/3 impressive innings.
- The Red Sox were set to acquire Rich Harden from the A’s, but once they looked at his medical records, they were no longer willing to include both Lars Anderson and a player to be named. The PTBNL would have come from a list of high-upside players in the lower minors.
- Raul Alcantara, an 18-year-old Dominican who signed for $500K in 2009 and Brandon Workman, a second round pick in last year’s draft, would have been on the list.
- The Red Sox also kicked around the idea of acquiring Harden’s former teammate, Brad Ziegler, who ended up going to Arizona.
- The Padres weren’t thrilled with Boston’s prospects, so Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein never came close to completing deals for Mike Adams or other Padres relievers.
- The Orioles and Red Sox never exchanged names regarding a possible Koji Uehara deal.
It’s obvious.
When your farm system has nothing left in it then you can’t make any trades. It’s going to take some time before Red Sox farm system becomes something substantial.
I think you’re overstating it a bit; the Sox had what it would have taken to trade for anyone who was available at the deadline. The problem was that it would have taken most of the talent they do have to get it done, and would have left them in a state close to what you are saying they already are.
The cost of some of those guys was also fairly steep, and the Sox presumably preferred to keep their talent rather than trade it for what would have amounted to (at the time) a marginal upgrade. Had they known they were going to have more/continued problems with their starting pitching they may have done things differently at the deadline, but everyone likely would have (given hindsight).
If a guy who’s most familiar with their system (Hoyer) didn’t want anything to do with it even for trading relievers, what does that say?
The Sox don’t really have any high-impact talent in their farm system. Maybe someone from the draft will break out and give them a legit elite talent, but currently, it’s just not really there.
Hoyer wasn’t interested in the prospects the Sox were willing to trade for a reliever. That doesn’t mean “the Sox don’t really have any high-impact talent.” The Sox had 3 guys on the top 50 mid-season lists. I’d like to know your definition of high-impact talent if top 50 isn’t high-impact. They will, in all likelihood, have 5 or more guys in the top 100 when the new lists come out; there are clearly better systems out there, but the Sox’s system is definitely in the top half, possibly top 10.
“They will, in all likelihood, have 5 or more guys in the top 100 when the new lists come out” Who? Also what prospect list did the sox have 3 prospects on baseball america’s ranudo is the only one i see on that list and i think his stock has dropped in general this season.
iglesias, ranaudo, and britton. iglesias will fall but probably not out of the top 100, raunado’s stock hasn’t dropped. middlebrooks and lavarnway should make it and bogaerts has an outside chance depending on the list
britton is almost certain to drop off the list however. 5 might be ambitious unless someone’s really in love with one of the 2011 draftees
Ok i was just basing the ranuado stock thing on something kevin goldstein said, he’s likely still on the list, britton is off. Is cechinni that good?
top 100 good? no, not yet. 130 low-a plate appearances won’t cut it. i think everyone agrees the upside is there, but he’s got a lot more to prove
Matt Barnes and Brandon Jacobs could make it, Brentz is an interesting name and Swihart may get in because he plays a premuim position but i’m guessing the top ‘close to the majors’ prospects (Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Ranaudo, Iglesias, Kalish) and Bogaerts get in.
I should have been clearer about the top 50 lists, there wasn’t one list with three guys on it, but three different guys made one, or more, of the mid-season top 50 lists. Those guys being Middlebrooks who was on two and just missed the other (next five according to the author), Brentz, and Ranaudo.
Based on that I would assume that those three make top 100 lists, along with probably Bogaerts, maybe Iglesias (though his stock has fallen, and maybe enough to knock him off of top 100 lists), and a guy like Barnes or Swihart who were drafted this year could potentially make their way onto the back end of lists.
O ok just wondering.
“nothing left in it” is silly hyperbole; it was a top-half farm system even before this year’s very good draft
Their system is garbage.
spoken like a true loser!
The problem with deals between the A’s and red sox is they value the same type of players. Beane has always coveted red sox players like Youk and Elsbury. The red sox are money ball but with the money.
Nice line. “The Red Sox are money ball but with the money.” Classic!
Nice line. “The Red Sox are money ball but with the money.” Classic!
Thank god for that. It might be our only remaining chance to unload Lars Anderson…
None of those trades would have made a difference for the Sox. Hindsight is always 20/20. There is no guarantee Fister wouldn’t have been wrecked in the Al East. Every team goes through rough patches, the only difference is Red Sox fans think a rough patch = the end of the world.
i remember when the world ended in april this year. good times
For the Orioles and Blue Jays it pretty much did.
Hey Yankswin28, spoken like a true Yankee fan. How’s your (Yankees) farm system?
…really good?
You can’t ask Yankees fans real baseball questions, silly.
If you want to talk to him, just start in on how Jeter is still and all-star caliber SS
Ya it’s like talking to tiger fans about their playoff rotation and having them tell you they will go with a 3 man rotation somehow. Boy is that annoying and in case you want an answer to his question the yankees have a really good system right now.
Top ten,.
Sox BP is terrible, if it wasn’t for Aceves Tampa would be in 2nd now. Said this months ago, and some guy ripped me for it. Even if they get into play-offs it will be one and done.
bard and papelbon are about as good as it gets. albers turned back into a pumpkin, so they have a big 7th inning hole. if aceves can fill that, they’re ok
I like Bard, but lately — he’s far from “good as it gets.” In five September appearances, he’s given up nine earned runs (on six hits and five walks) in 4.2 innings. Also, Boston is 0-5 in those games. And Bard took three of those losses.
yup. but i don’t know any pitcher in baseball that’s pitched 3 or more seasons and hasn’t hit a 5 inning rough patch at some point. it happens. and his manager hasn’t helped him
unless an underlying injury is discovered, bard’s a good bet going forward
bard and papelbon are about as good as it gets. albers turned back into a pumpkin, so they have a big 7th inning hole. if aceves can fill that, they’re ok
MONEY BEANE BALL IS B/S RAYS HAVE DONE IT LONGER AND BETTER DUH
Really? Tampa- the one with 4 winning seasons out of 14, including this year? Your parents experimented a little too much during the 60’s I say…you appear to be running on empty.
TONY LA JUSSA IS A LIAR KNEW ALL ABOUT ROID USE IN OAKTOWN AND ST. LOUIS
Caps lock key. Go ahead and pluck yours off the keyboard please.
You don’t need five starters in the playoffs, basically three will get it done, and you might use a fourth a once or twice. I’m going to assume that Buchholz doesn’t come back (at least as a starter) for the playoffs, and I would set the playoff rotation as Lester, Beckett, Bedard, and presumably Lackey. Those first three can toss a gem on any given night, and (while I certainly wouldn’t expect it) Lackey has done it in the post-season before.
lmfao….good luck with that rotation,chief…..even the tigers have a better 3 or 4….if you want to debate that id love to hear your argument
ahahahaha
I agree, MaineSox. However, I wouldn’t be so quick to count on only using the 4th starter only once or twice. Have you looked at this year’s playoff schedule? It’s already set in stone, and it’s a lot more tightly scheduled than in past years. Unless one team sweeps a round and your opponent goes the full 7 in the same round, you may not be able to really set up your rotation the way you’d like it, at least not nearly as easily as in part years. The playoffs this year could easily end up with teams having to use their 4 man rotations a lot like in the regular season with little to no reshuffling after each series.
I agree, MaineSox. However, I wouldn’t be so quick to count on only using the 4th starter only once or twice. Have you looked at this year’s playoff schedule? It’s already set in stone, and it’s a lot more tightly scheduled than in past years. Unless one team sweeps a round and your opponent goes the full 7 in the same round, you may not be able to really set up your rotation the way you’d like it, at least not nearly as easily as in part years. The playoffs this year could easily end up with teams having to use their 4 man rotations a lot like in the regular season with little to no reshuffling after each series.
no detroit starter other than verlander has beaten boston this year, including scherzer and percello (3 & 4) who gave up 6 and 7 runs respectively. erik bedard has a 3.18 ERA in 3 starts against detroit this year
if the tigers stay hot into october, they can beat anyone. but it won’t be on the strength of their third and fourth starters
Well, chief, if you read everything I said you would have known that I was really talking about not needing a 5th starter in the playoffs; 4 at the most and likely 3 could get you through most of the playoffs. While Lackey has blown all year, Bedard’s talent has never been in question (not by anyone halfway intelligent anyway) only his ability to stay healthy has been.
Assuming Lester, Beckett, and Bedard are all healthy I’d feel comfortable putting Boston’s top 3 up against any likely playoff team’s top 3, other than Philly of course.
You must be looking at the yanks rotation behind CC. Let me join you, ahahahaha!
Sorry, MaineSox, but 3 won’t cut it this year, not with the condensed playoff schedule, unless they’re pitching on short rest all the time. No, this year, teams will really need to go 4 deep with their rotations.
Honestly, I had forgotten that they condensed the playoff schedule. Go me
Holy SSS alert, Batman!
let’s fatten up that sample then, robin!
scherzer career v. BOS: 3 starts 9.45 ERA 7.57 FIP
porcello career v. BOS: 3 starts 10.80 ERA 7.89 FIP
but i bet that’s all just coincidental, small-sample noise right? if it doesn’t fit our bias, it must be! let’s go larger
scherzer 2011 overall: 31 starts 4.39 ERA 4.28 FIP
porcello 2011 overall: 28 starts 4.83 ERA 4.22 FIP
bedard 2011 overall: 22 starts 3.50 ERA 3.53 FIP
lackey 2011 overall: 26 starts 6.19 ERA 4.81 FIP
as already observed, bedard’s much better but lackey’s much worse. why stop there, though, let’s go another season deep and look at a more instructive split:
scherzer v. wnning teams: 28 starts 4.40 ERA 4.43 FIP
porcello v. winning teams: 19 starts 4.91 ERA 4.56 FIP
bedard v. winning teams: 20 starts 3.45 ERA 3.89 FIP
lackey v. winning teams: 38 starts 6.10 ERA 4.48 FIP
in a shocking turn of events, bedard is much better, and lackey is quite a bit worse
to repeat: if the tigers stay hot into october, they can beat anyone. but it won’t be on the strength of their third and fourth starters
“to repeat: if the tigers stay hot into october, they can beat anyone. but it won’t be on the strength of their third and fourth starters”
Seeing it as they will be going to a 3 man rotation(presumably) for the playoffs and two of them will be named Fister and Verlander, the strength of their 3rd and 4th starters will be irrelevant and a moot point as soon as the ALDS rolls around.
Nevermind—much like MaineSox, I had forgotten they condensed the schedule for the playoffs…
derp.
Somebody thinks too highly of their pitchers lol
Based on what has happened since the trade I’d say the Tigers are winning in that trade right now. Hopefully that 20 yr old 3rd baseman turns into a gem. I’m concerned that Wells truly is a 4th OF’er like many suggested. Fister is the real deal. He’s a legit #3 and the way he’s pitching right now he’d be considered a #1 or #2 on some teams. Amazing that he was a nobody in the Mariners farm system just 2 years ago.
Verlander and Fister have been two of the best starters in the majors the second half so…
It was definately a good trade for both teams. We would be dead in the playoffs without Fister and Seattle didnt really have a large need for him. Wells and Furbush are probly just backup/bullpen players but Ruffin could be good outa the pen and Martinez could be a pretty good 3B I guess.