Jonathan Papelbon's desire to set the market for closers was never a secret — it's now a reality. The Phillies have agreed to sign the 30-year-old to a precedent-setting four-year, $50,000,058 deal that establishes the record for guaranteed money for a reliever. The Phillies announced the deal today, noting that Papelbon will continue to wear #58.
The contract includes a $13MM option for 2016 that vests with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 in 2014-15, tweets ESPN's Jayson Stark. The Phillies appeared to have a deal with Ryan Madson earlier this week, but talks fell through and the sides didn't complete the rumored four-year, $44MM deal. Papelbon's agents at ACES stepped in and the Phillies have their closer.
Papelbon posted a 2.94 ERA with 12.2 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 64 1/3 innings for the Red Sox in 2011, saving 31 games. He's a Type A free agent who will cost the Phillies their first round draft pick in 2012, assuming the upcoming collective bargaining agreement doesn't change draft pick compensation for this offseason. Boston will obtain the 31st overall pick in next June's draft unless the Phillies sign an additional Type A free agent with a higher ranking than Papelbon. If the Phillies lose Madson to another team after offering him arbitration, they'll surrender one pick and gain two.
Papelbon is the first of MLBTR's top 50 free agents to sign. Check out MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker for the details. Bryan Grosnick examines the fantasy baseball implications of the move at CloserNews.
Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com first reported the deal and its terms. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, Jon Heyman of SI.com, Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM and others added detail.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI.
If someone offered me a bet saying the Mets won’t be within three runs of the phils anytime soon. I take it without thinking and bet everything i have. 100000$ the mets beat the phials at least once in their first two series.
and gain BETTER picks for Madson.
Will miss Madson, but I have always thought that he was better suited to be a setup man. Paplebon has a better closer’s attitude…….
50 guaranteed.
They don’t necessarily cancel out because the Phillies can potentially move up in the first round by losing Madson. They could end up with a high 2nd round pick though…
I don’t think they really care about a first round pick (which isn’t as big of a deal in baseball as in football and basketball, especially since they don’t really draft over 1st round slot… they get their prospects 3-10-lower rounds).
I wonder if the Phillies will offer Madson arbitration.
Why wouldn’t they? Madson wont accept. He would be a setup man and lose value…
But what if he does? That could cost a ton. Can they afford to take that chance?
Bastardo was the best relief pitcher in baseball for 3/4 of the season until he tired out. Stutes was also very good until he tired. I am pretty excited about many young arms in the Phillies system, and filling out the pen with a few of them is fine by me. Many forget Contraras will be back next year after going down mid season. He was very good in 2010 and 2011 until getting hurt.
We have to save money somewhere and the pen is the obvious area they feel they can use their own prospects. All I know is ticket prices have gone up 7 straight years, and concessions have also increased every year except last year. At least I feel I am getting my monies worth.I like Papelbon, but I am not crazy about this deal. too long.
I agree, too long.
This certainty hurts…but perhaps not as much as the Papelbon deal could potentially hurt down the road.
it’s not the $10M part, it’s the 4 years with a vesting option part. nuts (as in the place i will punch ben cherington if he turns around and signs madson to a similar deal)
Now that the Red Sox have lost Papalbon, the funny part of it will be when Boston signs Heath Bell for 4 years 10M and lose their first round pick to San Diego. lol.
In my heart, I’m happy as all hell. Still, can’t blame the Sox for letting him go. As much as I respect Papelbon, that’s waayyyy too much money. That vesting part is worse of all.
Now, here’s something you may be able to help me with. I realize that Papelbon wasn’t giving any home team discount, and was going to test the market. But did Cherington wait too long before making a real offer? Seems to me that instead of making a move during the exclusive period he waited until the FA period opened up. My thinking is that he may have been able to re-sign him for less years had he moved sooner. This is not meant to take a shot at Cherington, just a legit question
according to papelbon, the two sides have discussed an extension almost every year of his career. basically the red sox would presenta figure they were comfortable with, papelbon would present the figure he’d be looking for, and both sides would say “alrighty then. nevermind”
he was explicit about the fact that he understood their side of it, but also that they were never close to being on the same page about a long-term deal
so theoretically they could have tried to get something done between the end of the season and now, but i expect both camps already knew where the other stood. there wasn’t much to say before papelbon had other offers on the table. he got a great one and he took it
Bard has a 3.20 FIP through age 26. Papelbon had basically the same MLB stats at the same age, even though he didn’t get to the bigs till he was 2 years older.
No one is saying Bard is as good as Papelbon. But if Papelbon is getting this kind of contract, I’d take Bard in a second.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think anyone should have signed Papelbon to that ridiculous of a deal. However, that doesn’t make Bard a good 9th inning option.
The stats only tell half the story since nobody has seen Bard close out games before in big spots. A lot of that role is mental, which is why I reference the 11 innings down the stretch as a comparison. I agree it is a small sample of innings, but those 11 innings are far more representative of the stress of the closer role and any of his other innings previously.
I don’t buy the “ninth inning is unique” meme. But even if it were the case, 11 IP is not enough to say that Bard doesn’t have the gritty moxie veteranny mojo needed for the 9th. You admit it’s a small sample, so I don’t see how you can keep arguing otherwise.
So you’re saying that we should never have any new closers because inexperienced guys shouldn’t be given the chance to close?
They gave up their 31st pick, will get one in the Supplemental round for Madison, who as the 5th highest ranked type-A will net them the 36th pick in the draft PLUS either a teams first or second round pick. I don’t see that as canceling eachother out.
Alot of money for Paps, but he’s got probably the best track record of performance & health amongst big league closers not to mention being at a young enough age to survive the deal. At 12m annually, doubt this deal will prevent the Phillies down the road any which way.
Yeah me too, fire the man who traded for three ace level pitchers, signed Contreras, Pedro Martinez, Chan Ho-Park, traded for Mayberry, traded for Pence, etc and built a club capable of winning 102 regular season games.
Let’s fire him because he gave out a bad contract (a market value contract when you look at Soriano).
Maybe we should rehire Pat Gillick… the man’s the greatest GM of all time, so he never made a bad contract, right? He never signed Geoff Jenkins, Brad Lidge, Adam Eaton, Pedro Feliz, JC Romero… (just as a note, I love Pat Gillick).
Amaro is also currently overpaying Ibanez (although the manager is more at fault there, for continuing to play him at all), just signed Howard to a crippling extension, and then this. I would be worried as a Phils fan.
not really because raul is gone and a free agent
1. Ibanez’s contract expired… and he got great production out of him in 2009, don’t make the playoffs without him. The price was fine, years, not so much.
2. the Howard extension was an attempt to beat the market… it didn’t work.
GM’s make bad decisions. It happens. No reason to call for the head of a GM who built a 102 win team.
Look, i’ll give the man credit, he is fantastic at trading for top notch talent. However, he simply is not good signing free agents. He constantly overpays, and gives too many years. Plus he has given out quite a few beloted extensions. Look he may acquire a lot of talent but the payroll has to stop rising.
Why? Is it your money? They have the resources. Acquiring talent is his job.
At this rate he is going to run out of resorces.
Where can I get a draft pickle?
In 31 innings vs. the Red Sox last year, CC Sabathia had a 6.39 ERA.
I guess the guy just can’t get it done in the clutch.
CC was absolutely terrible vs the Sox last year, there’s no arguing that. Not sure how you got the clutch aspect based upon stats vs one team though…
You, 5 minutes ago: “Would you like to ignore the 24 innings he’s throw vs the Yanks
accumulating a whopping 4.13 ERA? I’m sure those would fall into
innings you would like to forget and discount too though…”
Can’t make this stuff up.
Again, I got the comparison vs one team. Just not sure where you are getting “clutch” from anything I said…
Read more carefully…
In the world where clutch is a thing, how on earth are CC’s 5 starts against the Yankees’ bitterest rival NOT clutch?
It’s not convenient, that’s how.
Papelbon was the best closer on the market, and a great signing for the Phillies. Cherrington and AA missed the boat on this one. You snooze you lose.
AA didn’t miss anything. The guy knows his trade. 4 years is too much for Papelbon, or nearly any other reliever, in my opinion.
As for the Red Sox, Bard has earned his opportunity to close
That’s why they finished last year with a worse record than the year before. How about all those Jays pitchers pitching in the playoffs. Dream on with AA.
Traded their opening day starter.
context, use some.
That’s why they finished last year with a worse record than the year before. How about all those Jays pitchers pitching in the playoffs. Dream on with AA.
Great signing? I forgot how many 3+ year deals have worked out for closers not named Mariano Rivera.
Only takes one.
Only takes one.
why do you keep repeating your damned comments?
Well yeah, actually. How about the 16 blown saves Rivera has against the Red Sox? That’s only 16 innings right? (correct answer is yes)
You don’t ignore those innings you just take them in the small sample size context in which they are presented. You don’t ignore the other 200+ innings of his career because of them.
LOL. You compare 16 blown saves (roughly 16 innings), over a 10 year period to Bard not handling his down the stretch run? You can try and compare Bard to Mo all you want, it just gets comical…
Man if the Braves had the Phillies payroll we would have one hell of a team.
If only. Maybe we can get Mark Cuban to buy the team from Liberty Media, I heard they could opt out when the CBA expires, which is now. Maybe then the braves could have more payroll flexibility.
You need fans to go to the games to have a high payroll. The only reason the Phils have a payroll this high is because they have sold-out every game in three years. The Braves can’t even sell out World Series games.
That’s why your payroll will be low, not because you don’t have billionaire owners.
Yeah I know, I think the Problem in the stadium location and the fact Atlanta is over 50% African American, and not many African Americans watch baseball. I think the Braves should go for an all black outfield with Heyward + Bourn + Maybe Fowler… That would be a pretty sick defense and offense.
and very marketable!
$12.5m/yr for 4-5 years is crazy for his (or any other reliever’s) history.
I really dont know how crazy it is to give papelbon that kind of money. Papelbon has a career Era of 2.31 and adverages 37 saves a year. His yankee counterpart – MO has a career 2.21 era and 39 saves a year. MO makes 15 mil a year. Papelbon made 12mil last year. (I do not think using the comparison between Mo and Papelbon using the sample size as Papelbons career is unreasonable for this limited purpose)
If papelbon can maintain a similar production through out the life of the contract, it will be an awesome signing But its a gamble. think if the phils signed him for 3 years at 12.5 a year; assume papelbon maintains his production and hits free agency at the age of 33 with three more seasons added to his history he hits free agency – do you think he is signing for just 12.4mil? I dont.
It’s not the money it’s the years. No reliever should get a contract that long, relievers are simply too volatile to give contracts that long to.
he had two blown saves the final series of the reguler season and nearly had a third in that same series look it up
Yup because you should ignore the rest of his season, or his career for that matter, and base your statment off of two outings.
no, it is a magical inning with mysterious magical mystery powers. not that i expect you know what an average leverage index is or what it means, but in 2011:
paps: 1.69
bard: 1.69
bard isn’t as good as papelbon. there are only like 3 relievers that are. that doesn’t make this a disaster, however, and your dramatics are cliche and tiresome. at least be dumb in a funny way
Again, comparing stats of a setup man vs a closer is only half the picture. I’m sure you can rattle off the names as well as I can of all of the setup men who failed as closers. It’s a totally different amount of pressure when you are the last one they are counting on.
The Red Sox get weaker and lose one of the biggest D-bags on the planet. Win-win.
Small. Sample. Size.
Also, Bard was not closing games. “Blown Saves” for middle relievers is about as valuable a stat as wins.
Also, the highest pressure pitching moment for the Red Sox in 2011 was the ninth inning of the last game of the season, which was against a horrible team (Baltimore), and was lost by… drum roll… JONATHAN PAPELBON.
Blown saves for non-closer relievers are even less valuable a stat than wins in my opinion. Completely pointless.
i wouldnt neccesarily say baltimore is a horrible team. pitching yeah they have issues there, but their offense has always been good. there was alot of games this past season where baltimore scored 10 or more runs but still lost because their pitching couldnt keep it off the board. so baltimore really isnt that bad. to be honest if they can get a big name pitcher into their rotation and stop trading their bullpen away every year they would be contending right there withthe yankees and sox.
Yikes.
We’ll see come September if Bard is worthy.
So nothing matters until September?
well, duh
obviously lol ask the rays. they were 10 games back going into september and then decided to wake up lol. the sox couldnt run away with the division nor the wild card. now excuse me while i drop chicken and beer off on ipswhich and leave it at the gate.
I’m not dismissing the season, it’s just that we know September is crunch time. I don’t expect another Sox or even Yankees collapse, but that’s when things get hot and heavy. Will Bard or whom ever closes be up to it? We all knew with Papelbon.
Except no reliever is certain from year to year (or game to game for that matter) as Papelbon himself showed in ’10.
your selective blindness shines through. the red sox have been preparing for papelbon’s 2012 departure for like 5 years
they are worse without a great reliever than they would be with a great reliever on a non-crazy contract. but that wasn’t an option here. and the other option — keeping a great reliever on a crazy contract — would present a worse situation than this one
most of you are analyzing this based on what it means for 2012. and that’s absolutely hilarious, since you did the EXACT OPPOSITE when crawford signed, and could only talk about the long-term
selective. blindness.
Ah…
Huh?
least surprising woosh ever
Once aardsma did it people just figured anyone could.
This off-season is insane. Pujols is going to get $1 billion at this point.
Plus performance incentives.
ooooo…somebody has their lederhosen all bunched up.
Did I make a comparison to Papelbon? No. Did I reply to a comment made by someone comparing value to their back end bullpen type? Yes.
“$22mm over the next two years is a drop in the bucket compared to these deals”
that’s what you said. $22M over two years is the exact opposite of a drop in the bucket compared to other 7th inning relievers. it certainly isn’t a drop in the bucket compared to benoit’s deal, which is the one referenced in the comment you replied to
it’s a drop in the bucket compared to papelbon’s deal, and possibly madson’s. but they are closers, not 7th inning relievers. see?
actively avoiding reality. you see everything yankee-related in the most positive light possible and everything redsox-related in the most negative. you’re not unusual in that regard i suppose, you’re just unusually obvious about it
There is no need to either Maine. Yankee fans will never get over their jealousy of Bard since their own fireballer counter part Chamberlain crashed and burned ever since the experiment as a starter 2 seasons ago.
Yankee fans have been filled with extreme jealousy ever since of the success Bard has had and never give him any credit, so why expect any now?
i doubt that’s it. joba blew up, but they have robertson
and i don’t even think most yankees fans feel strongly about bard one way or the other. it’s the vocal dimwitted minority that cannot resist any opportunity to flail around saying the same old things
papelbon signed by red sox for 4/50: “lol another big free agent fail for the red sox, theyll be screwed so bad late in this deal”
papelbon signed by phillies for 4/50 “LOL SOX ARE SO SCREWED NOW THEY SHOULD HAVE KEPT HIM OMG WHAT IDIOTS THEY COULD AFFORD THAT”
Oh I get that. My point was that when Chamberlain was tossing 98mph and rocking as a reliever, this place was lit up with (as you wrote) a few NYY fans saying he was like STG and now there is like ZILCHO about him and here, the last few days when Bard is still successful as a reliever, some of these same names hammer him mercilessly about 1 month when he was over worked.
Agree with you 110% about the looking back again if Boston had given Papelbon that contract also. We also have to remember There are a handful of Red Sox fans here that would be doing this to NY also, so there is a flip side there.
Oh I get that. My point was that when Chamberlain was tossing 98mph and rocking as a reliever, this place was lit up with (as you wrote) a few NYY fans saying he was like STG and now there is like ZILCHO about him and here, the last few days when Bard is still successful as a reliever, some of these same names hammer him mercilessly about 1 month when he was over worked.
Agree with you 110% about the looking back again if Boston had given Papelbon that contract also. We also have to remember There are a handful of Red Sox fans here that would be doing this to NY also, so there is a flip side there.
He was rocking as a reliever this year as well as last if you adhere to certain stats.
If we’re going to say Jenks had a good year in 2010 which i admitted i was wrong about wouldnt the same hold true for Joba? He also was doing well this year before his injury.
good point, he only really had one bad season. i think the narrative there is just different because so much was expected of the guy because of the way he broke into the league and he’s never really been able to reach those sky high expectations
im a yankees fan and i thought it was smart by boston to go with bard instead of resigning papelbon, i thought last year bard should of been the closer. although im a yankees fan there is some players on the sox i like (bard,lester,bucholtz, youkillis and ellsburry) pedroia is a good 2B but he looks like a penis with a hat on lol sorry. but back to what i was saying, I hate the sox, like im sure all sox fans hate the yankees but no sox fan can actually say there isnt a player on the yankees or who has played for the yankees that they didnt like. real baseball fans like certain players no matter what team they play for. now do you wish they will lose when they play against your team, hell yeah who wouldnt lol. all im sayin is not all yankee fans are idiots and talk trash the whole time.
Amen.
As a life long yankee fan…..i can say this….I dont really care about bard. I dont pull for him in games, but i dont dislike him or hope he fails and those failures haunt him to the point where he becomes a raging alcoholic and is forced to live in a van down by the river.
It has never a bard vs joba thing. (this was actually the first time ive ever heard of those two being compared. joba/hughes would be more fittingly compared with Lester/Buchholz) The yankee v sox rivalry isnt based on a player vs player basis. Yank/sox fans dont compare whose aging catcher was less crappy and then the winner celebrates with exuberant pride.
I like bard, he has been pretty much a main stay on my fantasy team the last two years. He is a good pitcher already and he can become alot better. so im not sure where your comming from….
Jealousy of Bard? Ummm, what?
and yet valverde numbers weremt great.
A new evil empire. Buying the top free agents at any price they want just ‘cuz.
Aceves is one option, so is Doubront, so are like a half a dozen free agents, so are a few potential trade candidates…
Bard will have a better season than Papelbon.
How about last Sept.!
Yeah, Jordan is right, that’s always been what Papelbon has planned.
The Phils got their man
I’m happy about the Papelbon signing, ultimately, I think this is a better deal for the Phillies than the one given to Madson simply because of the quality of the pitcher.
I hope Madson finds a good situation though. Seems like a great guy off the field and seemed like he wanted to play for the Phillies again. Really hope Boras can get him on a good team and get him some money.
It wasn’t really lack of effort. I just have a feeling, based on personality, that he will cash in and run.
The only thing he did that annoyed me for effort was that he seemed to gradually increase velocity throughout the season, as if he was saving himself for the end.
I compared sample sizes, it doesn’t matter who’s innings they are. 16 innings aren’t really any more or less substantial than 11 innings.
It’s a big difference. You compared 16 innings out of a 10-year period while I was looking at 11 innings where Bard was in a particularly stressful position in a single season.
No, there’s zero difference. Both are an extremely small sample size and are in no way indicative of the talent of the pitcher.
Right… OK…
Glad we finally agree…
Glad we finally agree…
Did I happen to mention that Bard is not yet officially our closer and that we can buy two to three relievers for the money we missed out on Papelbon?
You did… further done in the the thread but feel free to mention it again. Problem is, those others that you are getting for 3-5 million a piece are not going to help you close games. Who are you paying 3-5 million to close?
the world is flat.
the holocaust never happened.
You don’t know that for a fact. And we still do have Daniel Bard.
You should be comparing games not just innings. 16 innings in 16 close late games is different; 16 innings isolated just as innings means middle relievers can be considered the best relievers
What?
you’re entire argument is invalid, as any reliever cannot be validated who is better by innings pitched whatever the sample size, only starters can used innings pitched. For example, a set-up or middle reliever generally enters a game with runners on base or pitches 1+ inning whereas a closer “generally” pitches at most 1 inning with the bases empty but a completely different psychology. So for you to be using innings pitched to determine if Daniel Bard can handle the job is invalid.
I think he will be a great closer but just a heads up that your logic in this argument is completely wrong. Holler with questions, and please don’t reply with some he said/she said banter – you are better than that. Please correct me if I’m wrong
Nobody was talking about how many innings a guy pitches in a game, so I still don’t know what you’re trying to say.
I was simply trying to demonstrate that the 11 inning sample size he was trying to use to judge Bard on, is far too small to draw any conclusions from.
We agree about Bard & 11 innings being too small – my point is that you cannot compare Bard’s ANY amount of innings to Mariano because of the situations they were used in. Relievers enter in volatile situations, inconsistent to compare reliever to reliever unless you are comparing two closers which Bard was not. Alas, we will save that for another time…
I didn’t, I compared sample sizes. That’s it.
And you most certainly can compare Bard to Rivera; Bard isn’t as good, no one is, but you absolutely can compare them. The fact that one is a set-up guy and one is a closer might mean you look at things like leverage index to see if one is in in higher stress situations and whatnot, but really, it’s not a bad idea to do that with all relievers anyway.
The Phillies didn’t think Ryan Madson could be the closer in spring training… he got the job because Contreras got hurt.
They used Contreras out of Spring Training over Madson.
I see nothing about it as “clutch”. That is everyday life in the AL East — he plays the Sox 5-6 times a year. Its routine and last year, he looked bad 3 of the 5 times. I don’t see that as clutch though.
Now pitching on 3 days rest for the playoffs to win a WS, yes… that would be clutch…
I didn’t realize Papelbon had lips.
The closer spot is the most over-rated in baseball. The difference between Papelbon and Bard in terms of quality for those 60 innings, is small IMO. Madson will command much higher dollars than a bullpen slot is worth, so I’d stay away from him. Possibly Bell or Nathan as an 8th inning guy would be OK. I might even bring back Wheeler on short money to join Jenks, Rich Hill, Morales and Weiland (who was fairly tough the first time through the order), etc. in the bullpen. 8-figure-per-year contracts are justified to fill the RF spot and 1-2 rotation spots, not a reliever spot. And to all the “but it”s the Red Sox, money is no object, blah blah blah” posters, you’re forgetting that this is a business, and owners have an obligation to be smart with their resources at the same time as they are trying to build a winning team.
Closing games is the most crucial aspect of baseball. What good does it do you to have aces pitch 6-7 shutout innings only to have your pen blow the game? I think you underestimate the importance of have a setup man and a closer.
Sure baseball is a business, but you don’t spend 160+ million to miss the playoffs.
We’ll just have to disagree on the idea that “closing games is the most crucial aspect of baseball”. I think it’s way down the list. Getting someone to “pitch 6-7 shutout innings”, is much more important, and getting 1-2 SP to do that is where Red Sox resources need to focus, along with getting Beltran or Cuddyear to improve RF production. I predict Bard will be approximately as dependable in the closer role as Papelbon was. The key will be getting a strong 8th-inning guy, and I believe there are many candidates for less than half the money Pap or Madsen command.
One would think the most important aspect would be having the ace to pitch those 6-7 innings.
Is this Omar Minaya?
I fail to see how Madson is a closer or at least in the same sentence as Papelbon? He had a break out season. And if we’re going to compare, that’s what Soriano was/is in theory. So sure while the Yanks are overpaying for the “7th inning” having that depth, which appears to be at market or below could be beneficial over the life of the contract. If Mo goes down for a few weeks hypothetically, they have a closer (along with several other options) available. That $11mm for this season isn’t looking so bad at the moment. I am not comparing Soriano to Papelbon, because even I’ll admit, Papelbon is one of a select 3 or 4 that have had his consistency as a closer in the last 5-6 years.
if you’re not comparing him to papelbon, his deal looks awful (because he’s extremely overpaid)
if you are comparing him to papelbon, his deal looks awful (because he pitches in the 7th)
dunno what else to tell you
if you’re not comparing him to papelbon, his deal looks awful (because he’s extremely overpaid)
if you are comparing him to papelbon, his deal looks awful (because he pitches in the 7th)
dunno what else to tell you
I think the Boston Red Sox starting pitching staff is at fault for their collapse… I mean you can’t win with what they were giving them…
Papelbon blew one game. Daniel Bard blew a few big games. Beckett got shelled in Baltimore. Lester got shelled in New York.
For a team to collapse, it has to be an entire effort… no one guy is the reason.
Agreed, take it a step further too; if the starters hadn’t sucked for all of September relievers like Bard and Pap wouldn’t have been overworked, likely would have been more effective, and wouldn’t have been needed in those situations even if they did still suck.
So true. I don’t understand why Papelbon is getting scapegoated for the collapse, I would place most of the blame on the starters. Sure, this Phils contract is an overpay, but a lot of people are using revisionist history to act like it’s the worst contract ever.
The problem with the Papelbon contract is the years. It’s not a good idea to give any reliever a contract that long, regardless of how much they make per year.
papelbon and bard pitched in equally significant innings in 2011. please present your evidence that despite the data on leverage, the 9th inning is somehow magical
If I really need to explain that difference in pressure from the 8th to the 9th inning, then perhaps this discussion is not even worth having. I’ll let the long list of relievers, who were great before they tried to close, serve as my evidence. Look them up for yourself, the list is very long…
or perhaps you can’t explain the difference?
LOL — why of course, that must be it.
Scroll around, I think I have already argued my case enough. You don’t like it because you’re a Sox fan who wants to believe Bard can handle the role. You hope you’re right and I can’t wait to see you proved wrong…
No you haven’t, you haven’t said anything substantial. Your only argument is “Bard sucks because look, 11 innings!” You’ve said nothing with any more substance than that.
The ninth inning is NO different from the seventh or eighth. Pitchers come in for those innings with the bases loaded, two on, nobody out, facing the heart of the batting order. The good set up men get out of it without runs scored. In the ninth, the closer comes in with the bases empty to start the inning. More times than not, he gives up walks, hits, hits batters, and creates drama for himself. Closers then have to get out of it on their own and if they fail, they lose the game. Many closers pad their stats, because they start the ninth against the bottom three hitters on the team, face pinch hitters or in the NL, pitchers. That is a huge difference from facing the 3 – 4 – 5 hitters with none out and the bases loaded.
No you haven’t, you haven’t said anything substantial. Your only argument is “Bard sucks because look, 11 innings!” You’ve said nothing with any more substance than that.
you do realize that pitching in the 8th inning with a 1 run lead is a higher pressure situation than pitching in the 9th inning with a 3 run lead right?
Leverage Index, which notsureifsrs posted before (Papelbon 1.69, Bard 1.69) measures this. Both Papelbon and Bard pitched in EXACTLY the same amount of high pressure situations. When Bard entered a game the leverage index was up to 1.71, with Papelbon 1.70.
Nearly identical, enough with the Bard can’t handle pressure nonsense. Is he is as good as Papelbon? Hell no, but the difference isn’t as great as you think. And it certainly isn’t worth roughly $12MM. The Red Sox are better off taking that $12MM and applying it to their starting rotation.
Brad Lidge in 2008 was perfect… is he an elite closer?
Nothing really. They have payroll flexibility beyond this year.
I don’t think they’ll worry about Hamels/Pence until January.
Same, I thought they’d trade closers, then it got leaked so i decided to change it. Oh well, 48 other free agents left.
Oh well… There’s two other wild card slots now, they’ll be contending for a while.
i hope the mets sign madson just so we can get the 1st pick in the draft like if u want this for the phils and its not like madson will face the phils cause the mets r that bad
Brad Lidge gave up a home run to albert pujols in the playoffs of 05 or 04 and that ended there season and look how good he did in 08 and he pitched fine for us last year
i hope pap puts up a 42-42 and 7-7 in playoffs did that change lidges career nooooooo
My point exactly.
My point exactly.
yes he was
Wow my bad, should of looked at those numbers.
Wow my bad, should of looked at those numbers.
Just like it was all Manny’s fault before he left, right?
Just like it was all Manny’s fault before he left, right?
“17th or higher”
so you can’t be excited for the 18 ~ 30 picks?
Nope; look at my stern face of indifference toward your 18-30 picks.
the pickle knows
the pickle knows
This like many big contracts they have gave out recently ( Howard, Polanco, Ibanez etc), will no doubt hurt the Philles in the long run. Kunckleheads!
How has Polanco hurt them?
I’m with you I think Polanco has been a great asset to the team but I think people say his contract has hurt us because of his injury last year and his poor performance in the playoffs.
Yeah that where i was going at! Sorry thanks JST1331 for clarifying.
Brian Wilson is a goner in two years. There is no way I would give 4/50 to a closer.
phillies must not have watched papelbon the last two years. he is on the decline and starting to blow saves. i would have stuck with madson. or maybe even signed broxton. broxton would be cheaper and the safer bet. hmmm oh well
Okay—NOW his arm can fall off.
as a yankee fan, i thought it was smart for boston not to resign him. Bard has the pitches to be a succesful closer and he has been pretty much lights out every time he pitches. congrats to boston for not resigning that bum.
heath bell is worse?
Yes, Heath Bell in Fenway would be worse. He’s a fly ball pitcher which is terrible when you have an enormous green wall in left, not to mention his K rate fell off a cliff last season. Moving from the NL West from the AL East is a substantial difference as well. Lastly, he’s 34! He’s clearly on his decline vs prime. Very few closers are effective for long careers.
i think your definition of substantial is different from mine.
ha, good comeback. “What is IS”?
huh? The value of closers are over blown. The drop off from Papelbon to either Bard or Bell is certainly a decrease in value but not worth 4 years and 50 million dollars.
I’m agreeing with you – making fun of NYYSection. The reference was in play to his semantics and Bill Clinton from the Monica Lewinsky trial but nevermind…
What’s wrong with a flyball pitcher in Fenway? Fenway’s one of the least friendly home run hitting park in baseball. Are facts painful for you?
What’s wrong with a flyball pitcher in Fenway? Fenway’s one of the least friendly home run hitting park in baseball. Are facts painful for you?
one of the more unfriendly hr in league but one of the highest runs per game and hits. bell doesnt miss lots of bats.
Heath Bell has a K/9 ratio of 9.6 over the past three seasons
A lot of that is due to it being the home of the Red Sox, whom Heath Bell wouldn’t have to face. Boston led Major League Baseball in road runs scored in 2011 and besides, ballparks are totally independent of hits.
ummm if your meaning bard, id pick bard over papelbon anyday. papelbon was a risk as he tends to blow alot of saves, especially these last two seasons. big risk in signing him for that much by philly. plus that signing makes them that much older. Papelbon will maybe get 30 saves if hes lucky.
Papelbon’s blown saves since he became the closer in ’06:
6, 3, 5, 3, 8, 3 so really 2010 seems more like an outlier.
I may extremely dislike the guy, but he is effective and has been in every year, except for maybe 2010.
And for anyone else reading, I am aware that BS is not indicative of performance or effectiveness.
no one may like Papelbum, but he will get more than 30 saves. Cmon now
His stats in 2011 weren’t much different than Papelbon’s. Also remember Papelbon after 2010? People wanted him out of Boston, and wanted Bard to take his place. Now they want the opposite? Honestly, there is only good in this for Boston fans. We don’t spend a ton of money and instead can buy two or three relievers for the price of Papelbon.
Don’t forget about Papelbon in 2010 who went through the same exact thing as a closer, and who RSN wanted to replace with… you guessed it… Bard.
Papelbon for Madson? Just how good a deal is this? You pay more for Papelbon and get a reliever who lost it in 2011. Madson? How good is he really? In too many tight situations, Rhino put batters on base and made for true seat squirmers. Is Papelbon likely to do the same? Probably. The outcome may be different. Rhino usually got out of these jams. Can the same be said for Papelbon?
Considering he only blew 1 game in the NINTH inning last year I think the same can be said for him.
you have to change your name soon
Yeah, says the Sox fan, they collapse, Papelbon sucks. They win the world series, greates closer in baseball history. Give me a break. This makes me scared of Philly, smart move over Madison
Papelbon was great, still is great. There is also still no way in hell I would have been happy with him signing in Boston for 4/50. That deal is what sucks, not the player. It would be like Pujols getting 20/600 this year, it’s just crazy.
Clutch hitting is a myth supported by people oblivious to the effects of small sample size and/or brainwashed by Joe Morgan. That being said, overpaying on a closer is equally foolish.
Papelbon relied on the fastball as his predominant pitch as well, so what’s your point? By the way, Bard could close, but he’s not our confirmed closer yet. We could easily get two to three relievers with the money we missed out on getting Papelbon.
Papelbon’s fastball actually moved. Bard’s fastball is quite straight and that is exactly why he doesn’t have good numbers against FB hitting teams like the Yanks, Rangers, Blue Jays, etc.
Papelbon had his troubles in 2010 when everyone wanted him gone to replace with Bard. Both are great pitchers, but the bottom line is Papelbon is not worth the price he’s asking for. With nearly identical WHIPs in 2011 and a lower BAA, I’d much rather choose the cheaper route in Bard and save the money for other relievers or another cause. Smart move in my book and it has been from the start.
Bard’s fastball is flat? Tell Swisher that.
fangraphs.com/not/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/swish…
FALSE! A team with a protected pick could sign him and not lose a draft pick. The Phillies would get a pick at the end of the first round and a comp pick in that situation.
I give it two years tops until Papelbon turns into Brad Lidge.
He was all about the money …now he has it…..C-YA
better than LOLZ BARRY ZITO
thats right up there with one of the worst
i was referring to your comment.
i guess im confused , i was saying zito is right around the worst contract of all time , it remains to be seen on paplebon’s (spelling)
________________________________
no your joke, it was much more original than just saying referring to Barry Zito. Well done.
thats right up there with one of the worst
better than LOLZ BARRY ZITO
Don’t forget that only the bottom fifteen teams don’t have to give up a first rounder. If Madson signs with one of those that are trying to improve their roster, the Phils get nothing in return. It would be really funny if Seattle signs him to finish games for King Felix, Vargas, Pineda, etc. lol
Don’t forget that only the bottom fifteen teams don’t have to give up a first rounder. If Madson signs with one of those that are trying to improve their roster, the Phils get nothing in return. It would be really funny if Seattle signs him to finish games for King Felix, Vargas, Pineda, etc. lol
half the phillies team will need walkers by 2014
Yeah, he’s terrible in November. He keeps carving the turkey in thin slices!
yeah because he has the best cutter in baseball.
Yeah, he’s terrible in November. He keeps carving the turkey in thin slices!
Look how many good closers there are who weren’t even on the radar when they came up. Maybe they were ‘projected’ studs like a Kimbrel but nobody knew what he was going to do for sure but he is a beast. There are closers all over this league making small salaries that do the job for a few years then teams move on to another guy. The closer is important but its one the easiest positions to fill without spending a ton. I would never pay a closer 8 digits not named Rivera…and I would only do that if I was the Yanks. If he hadn’t been with the Yanks for all those years, the smart play would have let him walk and make Robertson your closer for much, much less money. But, its like Jeter, its a lifetime award contract and a PR move..they couldn’t let them walk.
Not a smart move to sign Paplebon for long term at that number. Madsen should take arbitration so they don’t get the picks and have to pay him 8 mil next year to be a set-up man. Haha. Won’t happen but would be classic.
Cherrington first mistake, you snooze you lose!
*Amaro/*twentieth
*Amaro/*twentieth
Not his mistake, they have Bard and a market full of guys they could sign to back him up if he fails.
Not his mistake, they have Bard and a market full of guys they could sign to back him up if he fails.
I said it on Facebook, $8MM/yr for Bell and 1st rounder in 2012 > $13MM/ yr for Pap. ‘Nuff said. It’s a business. I feel bad for anyone who’s ‘attached’ to Papelbon as a Sox fan. Move on. It’s baseball.
HEATH BELL
HEATH BELL
Great job Cherrington you puppet. Each of the last two seasons we sign junk to large contracts and now we have a proven commodity that we let go. Forget the money because the sox have plenty but proven players you have to hold on to. The draft picks are also junk, we traded for martinez with our drafted players and let him walk. The sox are now third in importance to Casper the Owner behind nascar and kickball in england. Now they will resign Papi who is 57 in Dominican years. This organization is done.
That folks is the low pitch whine of someone who doesn’t know jack.
“Each of the last two seasons we sign junk to large contracts and now we have a proven commodity that we let go”
Yeah because Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and John Lackey weren’t established players when they signed those contracts……right. Let’s save the lucrative deals for the 30 year olds who give us 65 innings a year….. ridiculous.
“Each of the last two seasons we sign junk to large contracts and now we have a proven commodity that we let go”
Yeah because Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and John Lackey weren’t established players when they signed those contracts……right. Let’s save the lucrative deals for the 30 year olds who give us 65 innings a year….. ridiculous.
Great job Cherrington you puppet. Each of the last two seasons we sign junk to large contracts and now we have a proven commodity that we let go. Forget the money because the sox have plenty but proven players you have to hold on to. The draft picks are also junk, we traded for martinez with our drafted players and let him walk. The sox are now third in importance to Casper the Owner behind nascar and kickball in england. Now they will resign Papi who is 57 in Dominican years. This organization is done.
This opens the door for the Sox to sign Heath Bell for 2 reasons: 1. The Red Sox need a proven closer, and I’m sure Bell would love to sign with a winner. Not that SD won’t be, they just aren’t right now and he isn’t getting younger. 2. The Padres can allocate that money elsewhere. Yes, Bell has been with the Padres for years, but it’s time to move on. You also have the bonus of him and Adrian being teammates, and Maybe Bell’s experience helps him with the clubhouse. Just saying, all in all the Sox need to make this happen. I am guessing 3 year, $24 MM gets it done. Less than half of what Pap just got, and I think Bell will perform at 85% of Pap. Better allocation of money imo.
I would be ecstatic about 3/$24 for Bell.
I don’t know , but I like it . The Phillies keep depleting their farm system and their players are getting older and continue to get injured . I would almost be worried more about the Nats or possibly the Marlins(depending on who they sign) for next year than I would the Phils . They may have one more decent year left in them before they have to start somewhat rebuilding .
I don’t know , but I like it . The Phillies keep depleting their farm system and their players are getting older and continue to get injured . I would almost be worried more about the Nats or possibly the Marlins(depending on who they sign) for next year than I would the Phils . They may have one more decent year left in them before they have to start somewhat rebuilding .
The 1-15 picks are protected so it would be impossible for any team to acquire them through draft pick compensation. In other words, your comment makes no sense.
Sure it does: if it’s not the 16th or 17th pick it’s worthless… -_-
Don’t tell any of the potential AL MVP’s that.
Granderson: 80th overall
Ellsbury: 23rd overall
Bautista: 599th overall
Guess cyberboo is dumb.
The 1-15 picks are protected so it would be impossible for any team to acquire them through draft pick compensation. In other words, your comment makes no sense.
Not paying $14 million for a closer will help the Red Sox immediately.
Not paying $14 million for a closer will help the Red Sox immediately.
Oh well. Good bye Paps. Enjoy Philly.
Oh well. Good bye Paps. Enjoy Philly.
poor guy will have to settle for 42 million dollars now…awwwwww i feel so bad for the little guy. How will he ever support his family. You cant even buy a small island for that kind of money.
Ruin Tomorrow Jr is out of the closer market now, I can’t picture him getting anything close to that now
The Nationals like him.
It’s not my money and who cares about 4 years from now. I want a title now!
poor guy will have to settle for 42 million dollars now…awwwwww i feel so bad for the little guy. How will he ever support his family. You cant even buy a small island for that kind of money.
Bard is one of the best relievers in baseball. Take off the pinstriped colored glasses.
LMAO The best relievers in baseball? Get your head outta your arse. Bard isn’t even in the top 10. You’re obviously a Red Sox fan. Maybe I inform you what Bards stats were after the All-Star break? Actually, I’ll let you search that up, LOL.
9 losses in 2011, the most among any relief pitcher in baseball. And he ranked 34th in total games pitched, so it’s not like he lost many games because he pitched in many.
I am not knocking Bard though, I do think he is a great relief pitcher. The question is, can he be a great closer.
Bard is one of the best relievers in baseball. Take off the pinstriped colored glasses.
Only a Yankees fan would judge a Red Sox pitcher on 11 innings that best suit his argument.
A stupid Yankees fan. Anyways, I’m a Yankees fan and I can tell Bard isn’t a closer… YET. He should be the 8th inning guy. Look at his stats after the All-Star break and that alone should give you some worries. He needs more time to get some of his craft down.
Only a Yankees fan, or about 60% of the idiotic Boston fanbase. I’ve seen way too many comments BY Red Sox fans complaining about how bad Bard must be because of September. It’s pretty sad actually.
Only a Yankees fan would judge a Red Sox pitcher on 11 innings that best suit his argument.
Wow, you don’t catch a whole lot, do you?
Wow, you don’t catch a whole lot, do you?
I actually think this is a smart signing by the Phillies because Heath Bell will eventually start going downhill and Paps could stay consistant into his mid 30’s
What’s Bell got to do with it though?
marmol to boston?
Heath Bell might argue that. The closer’s market is nice and deep this year. Cordero, Broxton (risk/reward – come cheaper) etc. Come on. This one of the deepest RP markets in years.
He handles pressure the same way Papelbon did when he blew his saves, and the same way when Papelbon completes his saves. Both have had ups and downs, Bard really isn’t as bad as you’re making him be. Yes, Papelbon has more experience, but he comes at a price tag that isn’t worth it.
Anyone who says they aren’t jealous of the Yankees having Mo is a liar. Kimbrel had one hell of a year but needs 16-17 more like it to match Mo. That’s called dominace my friend. In my mind though, Kimbrel will be the saves leader one day. Please let me dream
I don’t think he’ll get the saves record, but I think he’s got a shot at the reliever WAR record.
It’s ok, I think I’m going 0/50.
We’ll be sharing a drink called “Failure to Predict the Destination of the Top 50 Free Agents” but it’s better than drinking alone.
how do you change players uniforms, i’ve been trying to find out how to do it for months.
Jose Bautista’s contract is 5 years 65 million. Its hard not to laugh at the money these closers are getting especially in comparison to arguably the best hitter in the game right now.
when will the papeldance debut in philadelphia?
Against the Mets hopefully!
He could challenge all he wants. Still nowhere good as Rivera.
I don’t know why but I thought this was funny
it’ll be taken by Bard or something
because that makes totalllll sense for the A’s
i had pipe dreams of seeing him in a jays uni but not at this price… cant blame phillies as they have the need and cash with oswalt madson lidge off the books but is very risky
It depends. If a bottom 15 team signs him, they’ll get a second round pick
I absolutely understand the significance of “bang per buck” when it comes to a teams resources vs spending but I will NEVER understand why “fans” of major big money teams would rather have 2 draft picks vs a player that has excelled at an important role, and to say that the role ISN’T an important one negates everything that Paps has done for the Sox.
Now, if you simply feel that he won’t be the same player over the next 4 years then that’s a different story. As an example, as much as I love Mo I wouldn’t want the Yanks to go beyond a 1 year deal IF he decided not to retire after 2012. But Paps is a different animal and the Sox have money to burn. 4/$50 mil is not THAT far off from his true market value to say “whew” I’m glad he’s gone IMO.
The Red Sox owners have shown a virtual unwillingness to go more than a couple mil beyond the luxury tax threshold, so it’s not like there is an unlimited amount of money for them and the money saved actually will make a difference. They don’t really have money to burn; they have 2 rotation spots, RF, the remainder of the BP, and at least one bench spot to fill in with ~ $30mm, giving almost half of that to Pap wouldn’t make it very easy. Add to that the fact that Bard should step in without too much issue, plus the two draft picks, and I think this was probably for the best.
That doesn’t mean I don’t understand how good Papelbon is, or that I don’t respect what he has done for the Sox and how important he has been, I just recognize that in the Sox particular circumstance it is what was going to (and needed to) happen.
we will see how sox fair without Papelbon. 2 late round picks doenst mean anything, you can get them for nothing pretty much.
I think you should look at Bards stats after the All-Star break.
Still a small sample size, but are you referring to his 1.63 ERA, 2.31 xFIP, 10.11 K/9, 1.91 BB/9, .155 BAA, .77 WHIP, and four total earned runs from July and August combined? Because if you’re not we’re back to talking about 11 innings in September.
I’m just glad Pap is gone. His ego was so inflated for a guy that choked 2 years in a row at the most crucial time we needed him. I’m thankful for his dominating past, but he’s no longer an AL pitcher. They’ve seen all his stuff, so it’s off to the NL he goes.
Dude, Bard was our most overworked pitcher all year. When September came around, he was burnt out. Pap didn’t work nearly as many innings as Bard. Bard will be fine as the Sox closer. What are you Yankee fans going to do when Mo retires?? We’ll rag on you guys then.
David Robertson says hello.
David Robertson is Bard from a year ago. Just like it was presumptuous for Sox fans to proclaim Bard the closer-in-waiting last year, it’s likewise too soon for you guys to get hyped up on Robertson. Not saying you’re wrong, just saying give him another year or two first for him to prove he can sustain it.
I’m happy for Pap. He paid his dues and he has been rewarded.
I have a feeling Doc, Lee and Hamels lobbied for this signing–not that Madson is not a good closer but Pap was the best available and management must have felt the need to go with Pap. The difference in price was marginal. Good luck Phils.
I’m happy for Pap. He paid his dues and he has been rewarded.
I have a feeling Doc, Lee and Hamels lobbied for this signing–not that Madson is not a good closer but Pap was the best available and management must have felt the need to go with Pap. The difference in price was marginal. Good luck Phils.
Not Roy Halladay!
if bard is so good why did he have 5 blown saves in 7 attempts last season. he may be a good reliever but that doesn’t make him a good closer
whoever said that bard is good should be slapped in the face. The guy literally cost the Red Sox season because of blowing games
lol
Papelbon and his agent balked at the initial offer of $50,000,000.
good for papelbon..bad for philly, which is always good to see
$50,000,058? What a schmuck. I never really liked his attitude when he was in Boston, but because he was a great closer it got lost. I honestly as a die hard Sox fan am not unhappy that he chose not to want to return to Boston. I just can’t wait til A-Gon comes up in the bottom of the 9th, tie game, and ends the game with an A-BOMB of Papel-gone.
I wonder what he’s going to do with that extra 58 bucks. Dinner at Applebees anyone?
The beginning of the end for Ruben Amaro Jr.
If Papelbon gives the Phillies 70 innings, the Phillies will be paying him $178,000 dollars an innings.
If Halladay goes 230 innings, the Phillies will be paying him $87,000 an inning.
Are Papelbon’s outs worth twice as much as Halladay’s?
Halladay will pitch in 31-33 games
Papelbon will pitch in 50-80 games.
Either way Halladay’s deal is below market value so it’s not a great comparison. (WELL below market value).
Phail complete.
He gets payed more than Jose Bautista and only plays one inning 2 out of every 3 games.
Jose Bautista was also coming off 1 good year with questions if he could repeat the performance. If he would have waited and hit the market he could be looking at $100 million dollars right now.
I wonder what kind of market there is for Hanrahan in Pit? Effective closer for a fraction of what Papelbon signed for. If I was the Sox, I’d have already called Pit to ask what they want for him.
That 58 dollars is hilarious. His number is 58 too. That’s just too funny.
That 58 dollars is hilarious. His number is 58 too. That’s just too funny.
Don’t worry he blow as many saves a lidge did and the phillies will still suck
PapelBLOWN !
Yah right. lets go phillies