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Nationals Notes: Johnson, Wang, Rodriguez, Darvish

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Nationals GM Mike Rizzo told reporters on a conference call that the team will make an announcement about its 2012 manager within a few days. The team has conducted a series of interviews and will presumably announce that Davey Johnson will return to the bench next year. Here are more notes from Rizzo's conference call with:

  • The Nationals are indeed expected to make Johnson their manager, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
  • The team is corresponding with the representatives for right-hander Chien-Ming Wang, but the sides aren't close to a deal, according to Ladson (on Twitter). They discussed a contract extension earlier in October.
  • The Nationals haven't spoken to free agents Ivan Rodriguez or Livan Hernandez since early in the offseason, according to Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. 
  • Washington would lose its 16th overall pick for signing a Type A free agent and that's something that Rizzo will factor into the team's decision-making process this offseason. 
  • Rizzo has not seen Yu Darvish in person in the last two years, according to Goessling. However, the Nationals have scouted the right-hander and it sounds as though they’re open to bidding on him if he’s posted.
  • Darvish is on Washington's radar and Nationals scouts have seen him pitch in person at least nine times, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reported earlier this month.

2012 MLB Free Agent Tracker

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Our 2012 MLB Free Agent Tracker is now available!  The tracker currently allows you to filter free agents by position.  You can also link to who's available at each position.  Once the information becomes available, you'll be able to filter, sort, and link by Type A or B, signed or unsigned, signing team, amount, and years.

If you'd like option and age data on free agents, you can check out our 2012 MLB Free Agents list.  The list is more useful for quickly seeing who's still available once players start signing, but both the tracker and the list will be constantly updated this offseason.

My top 50 free agents list with predictions will be published Monday.

Joe Nathan Seeks Closing Job

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Joe Nathan's agent Dave Pepe says his client is excited about free agency and seeks a closer job in 2012, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.  Nathan is apparently not interested in an eighth inning gig after dominating as the Twins' closer from 2004-09.

Yesterday the Twins made the obvious call of declining Nathan's $12.5MM club option, but they have interest in re-signing the righty.  The Twins can offer him a chance to close, but the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, and Cubs could be in the market as well.

Nathan, 36, had Tommy John surgery in March of 2010, returning this year to mixed results.  He had some issues with the longball at times, but his peripherals were solid.  For fantasy baseball analysis on Nathan, check out Dan Mennella's latest at CloserNews.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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Look for the Reds to be active on the trade market, as GM Walt Jocketty decides whether to use his trade chips and limited payroll flexibility on a front-of-the-rotation starter or a middle-of-the-order bat.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Reds had a strong offense again in 2011, but were unable to muster the needed support from their starting pitching.  GM Walt Jocketty continues to face limited payroll flexibility, especially if he retains certain veterans.  Jocketty's own situation was resolved in September, when ownership extended him through 2014.

There's little doubt Phillips will return in 2012, though the second baseman has indicated he'd be insulted if the Reds merely pick up his option rather than extend him.  That's just talk, though — Phillips would have no basis to demand a trade, and if his performance drops off significantly it will affect his free agent payday.  An extension could help the Reds in the short-term by potentially reducing Phillips' 2012 salary, though he's said there will be no "homeboy hookup."  If Dan Uggla's contract is a guide, the Reds should be prepared to pay Phillips $13MM annually or else move on. 

Keeping one of the game's best second basemen makes sense, but hopefully, Jocketty keeps the price down on a potential two-year deal to retain Cordero.  The 36-year-old became a low-strikeout groundball pitcher this year.  The transformation was effective in 2011, but the Reds can't afford to commit $5MM a year for two more seasons of Cordero.  That'd be placing a premium on the save statistic, a market inefficiency the Reds should avoid.  

If the Reds have an $83MM payroll next year and retain Phillips for $12MM and Cordero for $5MM, that'd leave only $7MM in flexibility before considering minimum salary players.  The Reds could free up payroll by trading disappointing arbitration eligible players like Masset, Volquez, or Bailey, but they all project affordably at around $2MM each.  

In September, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote the Reds' number one goal is to add a middle-of-the-order hitter at left field, third base, shortstop, or center field.  The Reds have solid incumbents at each spot, led by Alonso, Rolen, Zack Cozart, and Drew Stubbs.  Grady Sizemore could be an interesting free agent target, otherwise, those are tough positions to fill with affordable middle-of-the-order bats through any means.

The rotation is another big need, one Jocketty tried to address by checking in on Ubaldo Jimenez and James Shields at the trade deadline.  The Reds are deep in fourth and fifth starter types, said pitching coach Bryan Price in September, but they need a number two type at the front.  The Reds have starters with good stuff, but their most dynamic young pitchers seem unlikely to rack up 200 innings.  Chapman will probably get a look, but he's a wild card if there ever was one. 

The Reds have trade bait all over the place with their depth at catcher, interesting young starters, and promising position players in Alonso and Chris Heisey.  Alonso is a first baseman by trade, but he's penciled in as a left fielder due to Votto's presence.  If Alonso's big league debut this year was any indication, they're not going to find a better bat on the trade market.  Perhaps a Votto trade will make sense a year from now and Alonso can play left field until then.  The problem is the Reds can't acquire a front-rotation starter like Shields without starting their offer with Devin Mesoraco or Alonso.  The Reds could match up well with the White Sox, who may listen on Gavin Floyd, John Danks, and Carlos Quentin.

The Reds are likely to lose a top offensive catcher in Hernandez, but Mesoraco appears as one of few catching prospects able to replace his bat.  An arbitration offer is probably in order for Hernandez, a Type A free agent.

The Reds' offense should remain strong, especially if they get more out of Stubbs or Rolen next year.  Jocketty's big challenge is trading for an affordable front-line starter, especially since top chips Mesoraco and Alonso are penciled in for important roles next year.

Pitchers’ Arbitration Salaries

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In the past couple days, I have been discussing some of the factors that play into arbitration salaries and the new model that I have developed for MLBTR to predict them. Yesterday, I discussed what gets a hitter paid. Today, we’ll look at pitchers.

One thing that advanced statistical analysis of pitchers has taught us is that luck, teammates, and opportunity play large roles in a pitcher’s success. A good defense can end rallies and convert a sure extra-base hit into an out, while a good offense can put you in the position to get a win or a save. The free agent market has clearly adjusted to this knowledge—Cliff Lee had just 12 wins and finished 21st in ERA in 2010. He still got $120MM as a free agent, because his peripherals indicated he was a better pitcher than that—his SIERA was 3rd in the league. This year, his ERA was 3rd in the league too and he got 17 wins, thanks to more support from his teammates. Even recent Cy Young Awards have gone to Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, and Tim Lincecum, who fell far short of the standard 20-win Cy Young Award winner. However, arbitration panels have not made these same adjustments. The statistics that matter to panels remain IP, W, and ERA for starting pitchers, and IP, ERA, saves and holds for relief pitchers.

Playing time is crucial for pitchers’ arbitration salaries, just as it was for hitters. Accumulating innings gets you a big raise, even with a mediocre season. Joe Saunders got a $1.8MM raise last year, with 203 1/3 IP despite a 4.47 ERA and a 9-17 record. This year, we project Mike Pelfrey to get a $1.9MM raise to about $5.8MM for his 193 2/3 IP, despite a 4.74 ERA and a 7-13 record. Both pitchers will get raises for bad performance, since IP reign supreme.

Wins are pretty important as well. Jorge de la Rosa had 16 wins in 2009, despite a 4.38 ERA, which got him a $3.6MM raise. Our model predicts that for each four wins a pitcher gets, he will receive about a 10% larger raise, even with all of his other statistics unchanged. For example, our model has Cole Hamels getting $14.0MM in arbitration this winter with a solid ERA but only 14 wins. On the last day of the season, Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel used Hamels as a reliever in the 5th inning with the hopes that he could back into his 15th win. It didn’t work, but our model says that if it had, he could have expected an extra $200K in arbitration with a little help from his teammates during his throw day.

Relievers get paid by role. An elite closer with a history of saves gets paid far more than a set-up man, who gets paid far more than a middle reliever, even with similar performances. Andrew Bailey is slotted for $3.5MM this winter, but turn his 24 saves into 24 holds and he’d only get $2.1MM with the same elite ERA of 2.07, even with his 51 career saves prior to 2011 still on his record. Take all those saves and holds away, and he’d get under $1.0M with 174 career IP of a 2.07 ERA. Tyler Clippard had 38 holds this year for the Nationals, which boosts him up to a $1.7MM salary estimate. Take away 33 of those 38 holds to make him a middle reliever, and he only projects to get $1.3MM.

Even more so than hitters, one of the best ways for a pitcher to woo an arbitration panel is to have good teammates and a manager that puts him in a position to accumulate the right statistics. He’ll get more wins, saves, and holds with an offense that puts him in front, and more IP with a lower ERA with a defense that turns hits into outs.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers have openings at second base, the back of the rotation and in the bullpen, but the AL Central champions' core will return in 2012.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Jose Valverde, RP: $9MM club option, no buyout (Type A Elias ranking)

Free Agents

There was a lot to like about the 2011 Tigers team. Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Avila were among the best in baseball at their respective positions, Detroit won 95 regular season games and they defeated the Yankees in the Division Series. For the Tigers to return to the postseason in 2012, they'll have to address questions on the infield and add depth to the pitching staff.

If the Tigers retain all of their arbitration eligible players except non-tender candidate Brad Thomas and exercise Jose Valverde's option, as expected, they'll have nearly $100MM in commitments for next year, not including minimum salary players. Nine-figure payrolls are nothing new to the Tigers. They’ve spent more than $100MM in payroll each of the past four seasons, averaging $123MM since 2008. After spending $107MM in 2011 and making a run to the ALCS, it wouldn't be surprising if owner Mike Ilitch boosts payroll. Expect GM Dave Dombrowski to have the cash he needs to address the Tigers' weaknesses.

Manager Jim Leyland got by without an everyday second baseman in 2011. He mixed and matched Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago, Carlos Guillen and others, without relying on any one player for more than 62 games at the position. Santiago and Guillen both hit free agency this offseason, which leaves the Tigers with a clear vacancy.

Jamey Carroll, Mark Ellis, Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson are among the offseason's top available second basemen. Since the free agent market doesn't offer much, the Tigers will likely explore trades for alternatives. Blake DeWitt, Orlando Hudson, Maicer Izturis and Alberto Callaspo are among the second base trade targets for Dombrowski to consider. All four players will have new GMs this offseason, and though that doesn't mean they'll be on the block, it could make them easier to obtain. It will take some creativity for the Tigers to obtain an above-average second baseman given the current options at the position. If Dombrowski doesn't like the market at second base, he could sign a shortstop to play second or simply re-sign Santiago and focus on the left side of the infield.

The team could also use help at third base, as Wilson Betemit hits free agency and Brandon Inge doesn't provide enough offense for the position. The Tigers, never a team to shy away from top free agents, could pursue Aramis Ramirez. He'd keep Inge on the bench and add offense to a team that finished fourth in MLB in runs scored. Signing Ramirez would likely require a two or three-year commitment given the relatively weak class of free agent third basemen. It won't cost a draft pick, though, and 19-year-old prospect Nick Castellanos is not MLB-ready. The Tigers could be tempted to sign Jose Reyes and move Jhonny Peralta back to third base, but an acquisition at second or third seems more likely.

There's been speculation that the Tigers could pursue top free agent starters, such as C.C. Sabathia and Yu Darvish. While a starter of their caliber would no doubt improve the Tigers' rotation, it's not clear whether Dombrowski has serious interest in adding a top pitcher from the free agent market. The rotation, which includes right-handers Verlander, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, only has one opening. Brad Penny will likely depart via free agency and Phil Coke figures to stay in the bullpen, but the Tigers could give 2009 first rounder Jacob Turner an extended look in the rotation. The 20-year-old struggled through three MLB starts this year, but posted a 3.44 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 131 innings in the upper minors. If the Tigers don't add a top free agent starter, they will likely add an affordable arm or two to compete with Turner and Andy Oliver and provide depth in case of an injury.

Valverde, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth and Al Alburquerque figure to contribute to the Tigers' bullpen in 2012. Free agent Joel Zumaya could return on a minor league deal after missing the entire season with a right elbow injury. With so many holdovers, there may be concern about the 2011 bullpen's walk rate of 4.4 BB/9 — the highest among MLB 'pens. The Tigers will probably add at least one reliever this offseason to supplement the existing group.

The Magglio Ordonez era may be finished in Detroit, since the Tigers have younger, more affordable options who lack Ordonez’s health concerns. Austin Jackson has solidified his place in center field, Brennan Boesch posted a .799 OPS before tearing a thumb tendon in September, and Raburn and Don Kelly provide Leyland with depth. Delmon Young, who seemed destined for a non-tender with the Twins, probably earned himself an arbitration offer from the Tigers due to a strong finish. He hit eight home runs in the final six weeks of the regular season and added five more homers in the playoffs.

The Tigers have six free agents, including three Type B players, but they won't necessarily have extra draft picks in 2012. The risk that Zumaya and Ordonez would accept arbitration likely outweighs the possible reward of the supplemental pick. Betemit could be the lone candidate for an arbitration offer. He earned just $1MM in 2011 while posting a .795 OPS, so the downside of offering arbitration seems minimal. If he accepts, he's back on an affordable one-year deal, and if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Tigers get a draft pick. However, the Tigers already have Inge and Kelly under team control, so they may decide against carrying three third base options.

Alex Avila emerged as one of the game's top catchers this season, hitting 19 homers and posting a .295/.389/.506 line. Victor Martinez's knees prevented him from catching after August 4th, but he has said he can catch again in 2012. The Tigers will probably still want a third option behind the plate to reduce their reliance on Martinez's knees.

The Tigers may consider extensions for Avila and Jackson this offseason, though both are four seasons away from free agency. There's no rush to lock either player up.

Big name free agents such as Darvish and Reyes could have appeal for the Tigers, but Detroit's most pressing offseason need exists at second base. If Dombrowski can obtain a second baseman and add depth to his pitching staff, the Tigers will enter the 2012 season as favorites to repeat in the AL Central.

Front Office Notes: Red Sox, Minaya, Cashman

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The Cubs and Red Sox introduced the new leaders of their respective baseball operations departments today. Theo Epstein met with the media in Chicago and Ben Cherington did the same in Boston. Here are some more notes from front offices around MLB…

  • Epstein sounded extremely confident in Cherington’s ability to bring the Red Sox back to the playoffs. “He’s had such a well-rounded development,” Epstein said of Cherington. “He’s got so much integrity. He’s so bright. He’s got great management skills of people. This guy is going to do a fantastic job.” Alex Speier of WEEI.com has more quotes from Epstein.
  • Speier hears from an insider who won't be surprised if the Red Sox and Cubs need the help of the commissioner's office to resolve the issue of compensation for Epstein.
  • Former Mets and Expos GM Omar Minaya is one of top candidates for the Angels’ GM job, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (on Twitter).
  • The Yankees expect to have a new deal with GM Brian Cashman by Monday, according to Andrew Marchand and Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com.
  • Newsday's Ken Davidoff explains that Rangers executive A.J. Preller rooted for the Yankees before getting his first job in professional baseball. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes spoke to Preller earlier this month for our GM Candidates series.
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they promoted Junior Noboa to VP of Latin Operations. Noboa, Arizona's first ever international hire, enters his 18th season with the organization. He has overseen the acquisition of players such as Miguel Montero and Gerardo Parra.
  • For the latest on the Orioles’ GM search, click here, for notes on MLB managers click here and for more front office rumors click here.

Manager Notes: Scioscia, La Russa, Red Sox

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We heard earlier today that Blue Jays manager John Farrell will be staying put in Toronto. Here's the latest news on other managers around MLB:

  • Tony La Russa expects to decide soon after the World Series whether to exercise his half of his mutual contract option with the Cardinals, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The sides have 14 days to make their decisions regarding the option. The St. Louis coaching staff has not received any indications that La Russa intends to leave or retire, according to Strauss.
  • Now that Farrell is out of the picture for the Red Sox, they aren't likely to hire another MLB club's manager, according to the Boston Herald.
  • Angels manager Mike Scioscia told ESPN 710’s Mason and Ireland that he's far from Los Angeles' de facto GM, according to Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. The skipper says he can't do two jobs at once. “I don’t look at budgets. I don’t count money," he said. "I don’t look at other teams to see what trades are going to be made or facilitate or start that process. I think that’s the only way a manager can function." 
  • Saxon hears from one executive who says some executives shy away from the Angels GM job because of Scioscia's power in Anaheim.

Red Sox Likely To Pick Up Marco Scutaro’s Option

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The Red Sox are leaning toward picking up Marco Scutaro's $6MM option for 2012, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Earlier today, GM Ben Cherington publicly suggested the Red Sox are likely to exercise the shortstop's option.

"We believe he'd be very coveted this offseason if he got onto the market," Cherington said.

Scutaro, 35, set career highs in batting average and slugging percentage for a .299/.358/.423 line in 445 plate appearances in 2011. He also had a career-best 8.1% strikeout rate and finished with more walks (38) than strikeouts (36). Only seven shortstops have contributed more wins above replacement than Scutaro (12.7) since 2008, according to FanGraphs’ version of the statistic.

If the Red Sox don't pick up Scutaro's option, he can remain in Boston for $3MM instead of taking a $1.5MM buyout. After the regular season, I explained why I expect the Red Sox to pick the option up.

Latest On Orioles’ GM Search: Watson, LaCava

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The Orioles have interviewed Tony LaCava of the Blue Jays and Jerry Dipoto of the Diamondbacks for their GM opening and both meetings were lengthy and thorough, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Here's the latest on the Orioles' search:

  • Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears that LaCava is the "stealth favorite" for the job (Twitter link).
  • Connolly expects the Orioles to continue interviewing candidates after they speak with De Jon Watson of the Dodgers tomrrow. Thad Levine of the Rangers is one possibility.
  • For more on LaCava, Dipoto, Levine and Watson check out MLBTR's GM Candidate pieces.

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