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Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Broxton

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Jonathan Broxton made a name for himself as someone who could overpower just about any hitter with his upper-90s fastball. He has been sidelined with right arm problems since May 3rd and when he returns there’s a good chance we’ll see a different kind of pitcher.

"The days of Jonathan Broxton throwing 99 and 100 [mph] might be over," agent B.B. Abbott told Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times last week. "But I think he can reinvent himself. He's still going to be 93-97.”

Broxton, who has struck out 11.5 batters per nine innings in his career, will have to get healthy before he transitions into a different style of pitching. The 27-year-old underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow yesterday to remove a bone spur and loose bodies

It’s been a while since Broxton seemed like himself. He started the 2010 season in fine form and had a 0.83 ERA until June 27th, when he made 48 pitches and allowed four runs against the Yankees. Regardless of the impact that outing had on Broxton's health (Abbott told Hernandez that he doesn't blame the Dodgers), there's no debating what happened next. Broxton posted a 7.58 ERA in 29 2/3 more innings that year with nearly as many walks (23) as strikeouts (25). Then, Broxton’s 2011 season ended after just 12 2/3 innings with a 5.68 ERA and, once again, nearly as many walks (9) as strikeouts (10).

Next up for Broxton: injury rehab (he’s expected to start a throwing program in six to eight weeks) and his first career appearance on the free agent market. Broxton’s stock has dropped significantly in the last year-plus, so teams won’t look at him as a sure-thing closer when he tests the free agent market this offseason. He’ll look for the opportunity to compete for a closing job, though there are no guarantees.

"I think Jonathan is prepared to sign a one-year deal and reestablish his value," Abbott told Hernandez.

Could it be with the Dodgers, the organization that drafted him in 2002 and has employed him ever since? Abbott says it’s possible and that his client would enjoy pitching under manager Don Mattingly again in 2012. However, Mattingly told Hernandez that he doesn’t know whether Broxton would be a fit since it’s been so long since he appeared in a game.

"I don't even know how to answer that, really" the manager said.

That’s probably how lots of front offices feel about Broxton, a formerly dominant reliever who’s still young and powerful enough to reinvent himself successfully. It’s hard to imagine a multiyear deal for the two-time All-Star, though that seemed all but inevitable 15 months ago. Instead, a one-year, incentive-based deal seems likely for Broxton, as long as he recovers from yesterday’s operation and assures teams that his health has improved.

Quick Hits: Epstein, Ozzie, Beltran

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Links for Tuesday, as the Red Sox and Braves try to fend off several wild card challengers…

  • Red Sox GM Theo Epstein failed to accumulate the necessary pitching depth, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.  Epstein has become a popular target this month, but the criticism holds more water for me if the author was pointing out the team's depth issues before the season or in July.  Morosi, to his credit, questioned Boston's rotation in April.
  • On a similar note, the John Lackey contract looks ugly right now.  But it wasn't regarded that way when Lackey signed in December of 2009.  In fact, ESPN's Jayson Stark did a poll of "20 wise baseball men" prior to the 2010 season, and Lackey's contract was voted the best signing of the offseason (right before Chone Figgins).  
  • White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen hopes to learn about his future before leaving for a trip to Spain in early October, he told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.  Guillen has a year left on his contract, so the White Sox don't necessarily have to follow that timeline.
  • Scott Boras will have lunch with the Giants' Carlos Beltran today to determine the right fielder's free agency goals, he told the Associated Press yesterday at the Moneyball premiere.
  • ESPN's Buster Olney tells stories of how Padres GM Randy Smith came to acquire Trevor Hoffman from the Marlins, and how the Yankees considered trading Mariano Rivera before they realized what they had.

Mets Rumors: Closer, Reyes, Wright

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The Mets currently project for the 13th overall draft pick next June, same as this year.  The latest on the club:

  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson talked at length about closers yesterday, as usual leaving the door open for most possibilities.  He explained to ESPN's Adam Rubin that the closer position "needs to be a point of concentration for us," and wouldn't rule out signing one of the big-name free agent closers.  He added, "There are no concessions from me," implying he's not interested in signing a stopgap closer.  On the other hand, a "cheap, proven veteran" is exactly the route Mike Puma of the New York Post expects Alderson to take after listening to the GM make the same comments.  No matter what the Mets decide to do, it'll all be covered in detail at our @CloserNews Twitter feed and CloserNews.com.
  • Alderson expects to know early on which direction the Jose Reyes situation is headed, he told Rubin.  He won't count on an early resolution, but he admitted "everything will be contingent on how that turns out."  Ruben Tejada appears to be Plan B for the Mets at shortstop, writes David Lennon of Newsday.
  • Third baseman David Wright is showing greatly diminished range, a rival scout tells Andrew Keh of the New York Times.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Michael Cuddyer

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The Twins are all Michael Cuddyer has ever known.  They drafted him ninth overall as a high school shortstop in 1997, and he reached the Majors in 2001.  Cuddyer's Twins career has spanned 11 seasons and 1,130 games (plus 22 in the postseason) to date.  He's mostly played right field, but has also logged innings at the infield corners and second base.  Cuddyer's career batting line is .271/.343/.451, which is similar to his work this year.

Cuddyer

Cuddyer has earned about $29MM in his career, most of which comes from a multiyear contract he signed in January of 2008.  That became a four-year deal when the Twins exercised his $10.5MM option for 2011.  33 years old in March, Cuddyer is closer than he's ever been to free agency.  The Twins held on to him at both trade deadlines this year, despite interest from the Phillies, Braves, Giants, Red Sox, and Angels.  Cuddyer wants to stay, and the Twins reportedly floated a two-year, $16MM deal in August.  Joe Christensen said talks didn't get beyond that trial balloon, and the player prefers to resume talks after the season.  Cuddyer is represented by Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, as our agency database shows. 

In our latest Elias Rankings projections, Cuddyer profiles as a Type A free agent.  The Twins clearly want him back, but offering arbitration would result in a salary north of this year's $10.75MM salary.  My guess is that the Twins won't consider the draft picks worth the risk and will not offer arbitration if it gets to that point.  Cuddyer figures to be a popular free agent target in a market light on offensive depth, and his value will only increase if he doesn't cost a draft pick.  I think Cuddyer could find three years and $30MM on the open market, so the Twins might have to improve their offer to something in the three-year, $27MM range to get a deal done.  He "might need some convincing" to re-sign, tweeted ESPN 1500's Phil Mackey yesterday.  If talks with the Twins fall through, teams like the Red Sox, Athletics, Cubs, Cardinals, Rockies, and Giants are speculative suitors.  

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Talks Slow Between Berkman, Cardinals

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Contract talks between right fielder Lance Berkman and the Cardinals have slowed due to a difference of opinion over the player's worth, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Ideally the Cardinals would wrap up new contracts with Berkman and Rafael Furcal before month's end, leaving fewer question marks heading into the Albert Pujols negotiations.  They extended Chris Carpenter earlier this month.

Berkman had plenty to say to Strauss on the topic of his next contract.  He told Strauss "this is not an adversarial situation," but explained, "It's always about money.  No matter what people say, it's always about the money."

Berkman made additional comments that imply the Cardinals are trying to attach an option year or incentives to a potential one-year deal, whereas he wants one year with no strings attached.  Berkman appears to believe that he'll be taking a discount to re-sign with St. Louis, as in his opinion his production isn't that far off from Pujols and Prince Fielder.

The big difference is that Berkman will turn 36 in February, and the over/under on his games played for 2012 should be set around 135.  His production with the Cardinals has returned to his '08 level, as Berkman is hitting .299/.412/.558 with 31 home runs in 549 plate appearances.  I think a salary around $12MM would be a fair compromise.

Arbitration Eligibles: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Moylan had back surgery in May and returned in September, he'll have a low innings total for 2011.  That should hold his salary at $2MM, and I think the Braves will retain him assuming they consider him healthy.

We've got Bourn down for a raise of nearly $3MM, up to $7.2MM.  Jurrjens projects for a fairly modest raise to $5.1MM.  He's tallied fewer than 300 innings over the last two seasons, and that hurts his arbitration earnings.  Prado is looking at about $4.4MM and O'Flaherty could get $2.4MM.

Our total for the Braves' five arbitration eligible players is $21.1MM.  Assuming Eric Hinske's option is picked up, the Braves would have about $88MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players.  That's only about $3MM below this year's Opening Day payroll of $91MM, though they have exceeded $100MM twice in the last decade. 

Matt Swartz contributed to this post.

Jeremy Affeldt’s Option & Free Agent Prospects

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If the Giants allow Jeremy Affeldt to hit free agency this offseason instead of picking up the veteran left-hander’s $5MM option for 2012, his job prospects will probably be promising. Teams are always looking for southpaws to use out of the bullpen, Affeldt’s numbers are strong and the competition is weak.

Affeldt, whose season ended with a kitchen-related injury to his non-pitching hand, finished the year with a 2.63 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 62.1% ground ball rate in 61 2/3 innings this year. Those numbers reminded me of Scott Downs, the Angels left-hander who posted a 2.64 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 57.8% ground ball rate in 61 1/3 innings a year ago with the Blue Jays. The result for Downs: a three-year deal worth $15MM despite the Type A designation that hinders the earning potential of so many free agent relievers.

Even if San Francisco offers Affeldt arbitration, teams won’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign the projected Type B free agent. At 32 years of age, Affeldt remains relatively young – three years younger than Downs and markedly younger than most of the other free agent southpaws.

Peripheral stats such as xFIP (3.37), SIERA (2.88) and average fastball velocity (93.1 mph) all suggest that Affeldt’s impressive 2.63 ERA is no fluke. And while some lefty relievers post eye-catching stats because their managers barely let them face right-handers, Affeldt can hold off right-handed hitters, too (7.4 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 57.1% ground ball rate).

The competition in terms of free agent left-handed relievers doesn’t figure to be strong. There’s Darren Oliver, a 40-year-old who could very well cost a draft pick. Affeldt’s teammate, Javier Lopez, is a capable pitcher who walks one batter per two innings. Mike Gonzalez of the Rangers will draw interest, though he has had an up and down season. And George Sherrill has impressive stats, but he can’t be trusted against right-handed hitters. In other words, the free agent market is unimpressive.

Affeldt is a veteran of multiyear contracts, having signed one two-year deal with the Giants in 2008 and another one in 2010. If San Francisco turns down its 2012 option, Affeldt’s representatives at Moye Sports Associates will have a strong case for a third multiyear deal in free agency. Affeldt, the Giants' 2011 nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award, would enter a market that won’t offer much in terms of free agent left-handers. Don’t be surprised if the Giants decline Affeldt’s option and he goes on to sign a multiyear deal for the third time in his career.

Quick Hits: Pirates, Cubs, Werth, Byrdak

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The Cardinals won and the Braves lost, so only 2.5 games separate the two clubs in the National League Wild Card race. Here's the latest news from around MLB…

  • Pirates GM Neal Huntington didn't say whether he intends to offer arbitration to Ross Ohlendorf this offseason, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Ohlendorf would earn a raise from his current $2.025MM salary if the Pirates tender him a contract this winter.
  • The Cubs told scouting director Tim Wilken that he'll be back in 2012, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. There had been some rumblings that Wilken would receive a four-year extension like the one director of player personnel Oneri Fleita obtained, but Wilken will return on a one-year deal.
  • Giants officials acknowledged to Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that it will be hard to bring back both Jeremy Affeldt ($5MM option) and Javier Lopez (free agent) next year. The two left-handers could hit free agency this offseason.
  • Jayson Werth told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he still believes that the Nationals are headed for success. The outfielder hasn't lived up to his $126MM contract so far, but he says he has found his swing and regained his composure.
  • Mike Mosa, the agent for Tim Byrdak, told MLBTR's Tim Dierkes that Byrdak's decision to sign an extension with the Mets had to do with the team's willingness to include an opt-out in his deal for 2011 (Twitter link).
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains that serious analysts don't believe "that awards voting should be done according to an ordinal ranking" of the wins above replacement statistic. WAR is a tool that guides baseball fans, not an absolute statement about value or ability.
  • In this week's edition of Ask BA, Jim Callis of Baseball America explains that he doubts we'll ever see an international draft because of all the logistics that would be involved. Commissioner Bud Selig has long supported a worldwide draft, which will come up during this round of collective bargaining.

Do Owners, GMs Learn From Bad Contracts?

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Earlier this season, Mets owner Fred Wilpon explicitly compared the impending free agency of Jose Reyes to the contract that Carl Crawford signed last winter. That seven-year, $142MM deal was supposed to be beyond Reyes' reach.

But as the season has worn on, it has been Crawford who hasn't been worth "Carl Crawford money". The disappointing left fielder has tallied an OPS+ of 86 and just 18 stolen bases entering Monday's games, and so it has become fashionable to declare that general managers and owners will learn from Crawford, an admittedly similar player to Reyes, and avoid a similar payout in both length and worth of contract to Reyes this coming offseason.

This led me to wonder: had owners ever learned from a disastrous free agent deal before? Simply put, had any first-year collapses in performance by one player kept another, similar player from receiving a similar amount of money?

Take Darren Dreifort, for example. Through the 2000 season, the 28-year-old Dreifort had mediocre career totals – an ERA+ of 98 – but posted a 105 ERA+ just prior to hitting free agency. The Dodgers, intent on keeping him, signed Dreifort to a five-year, $55MM contract.

It didn't take long for the deal to look like a loser – Dreifort pitched to an ERA+ of 78 over half of 2001, then missed the rest of that season and the next one with an elbow injury. If the Crawford/Reyes thesis is to be believed, all of baseball shied away from such contracts for pitchers, particularly ones roughly Dreifort's age with a similar track record of success, right?

Not even if we narrow it to Los Angeles' own division. In the winter of 2001, the San Francisco Giants, who had a front row seat for Dreifort's failings, signed Jason Schmidt to a five-year, $41MM contract. Schmidt was 28, the same age as Dreifort, and his career ERA+ was 99 to Dreifort's 98. Even his breakout season was similar, with a 107 ERA+ to Dreifort's 105. That the Schmidt contract worked out far better than Dreifort's is beside the point; the Giants had no way to know that at the time. They simply had Dreifort's celebrated contract in their short-term memory, and did not hesitate to commit to Schmidt for the same duration anyway.

In reality, we can play a similar game with virtually every terrible free agent contract. Vince Coleman, for instance, signed a four-year, $11.95MM contract with the New York Mets prior to the 1991 season. He played in only 72 games during his first season in New York and saw his stolen base total drop from 77 to 37. Nevertheless, Otis Nixon, a speed-reliant player three years older than Coleman, signed with the Braves a year later for three years, $8.1MM.

That lesson didn't take a decade earlier, either. Speedy outfielder Dave Collins, fresh off of a 108 OPS+ age-28 season, signed a three-year, $2.475MM contract with the Yankees to help replace Reggie Jackson prior to the 1982 season. A year later, the Yankees dumped Collins (along with a package of players that included Fred McGriff) on the Blue Jays when he put up an OPS+ of 80 in New York. And yet, even as Collins was getting dumped, the Houston Astros signed Omar Moreno, an inferior player to Collins (also speed-reliant, and a year older than Collins when he signed) to a five-year, $3.5 million contract.

So forgive me if I don't believe that Jose Reyes will receive a lesser payday thanks to the struggles of Carl Crawford. As usual, Reyes' contract will be dictated by the market for players at his position and whether teams with money have a desire for Reyes, not owners and GMs mindful of recent comps that soured. If a team wants Reyes, that team will conclude this situation is different. It wouldn't particularly surprise me if that team even turned out to be the same one that signed Crawford.

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