If The Padres Become Sellers
Having lost their last three games, the Padres are 19-28, in last place and 8.5 games out in the NL West. They're second to last in the league with 3.51 runs scored per game, though at 4.40 the offense has been much better in May. The Padres' starters carry an unspectacular 4.16 ERA, while their bullpen remains on top at 2.30.
Padres GM Jed Hoyer tried for the best of both worlds during the offseason, trading his best player in Adrian Gonzalez while also importing a bunch of bounceback candidate veterans in hopes of remaining competitive. Perhaps 2010 was just an anomaly in the Padres' rebuilding process, and Hoyer will continue thinking long-term when the trade deadline approaches in a couple of months. In that case, who might be available?
- Closer Heath Bell sports a 1.13 ERA on the season. Like Pittsburgh's Joel Hanrahan, the 33-year-old Bell has traded a bunch of strikeouts for an improved groundball rate this season. Bell is earning $7.5MM and will be eligible for free agency after the season; there's a good chance his team can offer arbitration and net a pair of draft picks. The Nationals were able to extract highly-rated catching prospect Wilson Ramos from the Twins for closer Matt Capps last year. Capps came with an additional year of control but without Bell's pedigree. Still, even an Octavio Dotel rental netted the Pirates James McDonald and Andrew Lambo.
- I can picture the Padres dealing Bell or Mike Adams, though moving both would be bold. There's a case to be made that Adams has more trade value – he owns a 0.87 ERA through 20 2/3 innings, has much stronger peripheral stats than Bell, and is under team control for 2012 at a salary unlikely to reach $5MM. Chad Qualls sits a level below Bell and Adams and figures to be dealt. He's not striking batters out, but he is keeping the ball on the ground and it's worked so far.
- Ryan Ludwick owns a .224/.304/.373 line in 425 Padres plate appearances dating back to last year, work that would get most players designated for assignment. Silver lining: he's at .289/.331/.526 since April 20th. If Ludwick maintains that production over the next two months, he'll be one of the better bats available and should net the Padres a decent prospect.
- Brad Hawpe has a similar story, in that he's heated up this month. Hawpe is cheaper, but he also carries more of a platoon bat reputation and has been shielded from lefties this year. The other half of that platoon, Jorge Cantu, has been terrible and might not make it to the trade deadline.
- Padres prospect Jedd Gyorko is doing major damage in High-A ball, though they'll probably still want Chase Headley around in the $4MM range next year. Headley, who ranks fifth in the league with 27 walks, would be worth listening on now though. He doesn't have the power of a typical third baseman, but there's not much better on the trade market aside from perhaps Wilson Betemit.
- Aaron Harang has a 4.31 ERA in nine starts on the season, with peripheral stats similar to last year. Only three of his starts have come away from PETCO, and he pitched well in two of them. Harang has shown the skills of a 4.50 ERA pitcher, though that was true last year as well. The difference is that he's earning $4MM this year instead of $14.5MM, so a contender should be willing to take a flier.
- I've analyzed four other potential sellers so far: the Astros, Twins, Diamondbacks, and Pirates.
Twins May Explore Kevin Slowey Trade
The Kevin Slowey relief experiment has ended, and a change of scenery appears to be in order. The 27-year-old control artist told Twins manager Ron Gardenhire he was having a hard time as a reliever, according to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Slowey is headed back to Triple-A to get stretched out as a starter, but Gardenhire implied on ESPN 1500 that the right thing is to find the righty a starting opportunity with another club. After Sunday's game, Slowey had this to say to Neal:
"I understand our situation here. I understand the starters we have here, and I understand that, even given past successes as a starter, this might not be the right fit for me anymore."
That's a far cry from March of 2009, when Slowey talked to MLBTR about how he'd love to stay with the Twins long-term.
It's odd that a team with the second-worst rotation in the AL to date can't find room for Slowey, but Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker are pitching well and Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano were very good last year. There's a case to be made for replacing Brian Duensing, but the Twins may prefer to give top prospect Kyle Gibson a look.
Slowey is not without his flaws. He's a righty with a 90 mile per hour heater. He's hittable, and his high flyball rate makes him prone to the longball. He's averaged about 5.5 innings per start in recent years and hasn't reached 175 in a season since '07. Most recently, he battled a shoulder strain in April.
Some team has a chance to buy low on Slowey, though, since he is capable of a sub-4.00 ERA. Slowey is earning $2.7MM this year, and is under team control through 2013 as an arbitration eligible player. Given how the 2011 season has gone so far, his 2012 raise should be limited. Contenders like the Red Sox and Marlins are currently hurting for starting pitching, though needs will become clearer for all teams a month or two from now. The Blue Jays reportedly had interest in Slowey in early March.
2012 Contract Issues: Arizona Diamondbacks
The surging Diamondbacks are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (4)
- Kelly Johnson is the Diamondbacks' biggest free agent and may be a trade candidate if he returns to his 2010 form.
- Melvin Mora had a resurgent 2010 for the Rockies, but he's struggling so far with Arizona. Xavier Nady and Aaron Heilman, also signed to one-year free agent deals, have failed to produce as well.
Contract Options (3)
- Zach Duke: $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout. Duke is currently rehabbing in the minors after breaking his pitching hand in mid-March. If the lefty is to be retained at a $4.75MM net price, he'll need a solid four months.
- Henry Blanco: $1.15MM mutual option with a $250K buyout.
- Willie Bloomquist: $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout. Kevin Towers dished out three mutual options last offseason, the most of any team. This was just a way to push $400K onto next year's payroll.
Arbitration Eligible (8)
- First time: Juan Gutierrez, Gerardo Parra, Ryan Roberts
- Second time: Josh Wilson, Micah Owings
- Third time: Joe Saunders, Miguel Montero, Sean Burroughs
Parra and Roberts will be on the Super Two borderline, assuming it is around two years and 146 days. Saunders is the big money case, as he's working from a $5.5MM salary. However, if he continues along with an ERA over 5.00, he'll probably be non-tendered. Montero will still provide good value, though the catcher's salary could climb past $5MM. Gutierrez's salary should remain reasonable, while Wilson, Owings, and Burroughs will probably be cut loose. If Saunders is cut, Arizona's arbitration eligibles shouldn't cost much more than $8MM.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Diamondbacks' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $28.908MM if Duke's option is declined. Throw in $8MM for arbitration eligibles and the D'Backs are still about $20MM under their 2011 payroll before accounting for minimum salary players. The payroll exceeded $70MM in each of the two previous years, and a return to that level would give Towers over $30MM in 2012 salaries to work with.
Fred Wilpon On Reyes, Wright, Beltran
Jeffrey Toobin of The New Yorker has penned a must-read article about Mets owner Fred Wilpon, although at almost 11,000 words you may have to save it for your lunch break. Toobin spent significant time with Wilpon, and also conversed with Bernie Madoff. The article serves as a great primer on Wilpon's rise. A few items within MLBTR's realm:
Wilpon on Jose Reyes on April 20th:
"He thinks he’s going to get Carl Crawford money. He’s had everything wrong with him. He won’t get it."
MLBTR's take: We've heard the rumor that Reyes could seek a contract in the seven-year, $142MM range, but it gains credibility coming from the Mets' owner. While it's rare to hear this kind of blunt honesty from a team owner, there's nothing surprising here. Reyes may have raised his stock beyond Crawford's in the month since Wilpon's quote, and a Mets extension has seemed unlikely for some time.
Wilpon on David Wright on April 20th:
"He’s pressing. A really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar."
MLBTR's take: Again, there are plenty of people who consider Wright less than a superstar at this stage in his career, but now we can count the Mets' owner among them. Since Wright can be under team control through 2013, there's not much reason to consider an extension right now anyway.
Wilpon on Carlos Beltran:
"We had some schmuck in New York who paid him based on that one series [his 2004 postseason with the Astros]. He’s sixty-five to seventy per cent of what he was."
Toobin notes that Wilpon was referring to himself in this quote. I imagine most GMs agree that Beltran is 65-70% of what he was, especially since he's playing right field rather than center. But Wilpon's comment doesn't exactly boost Beltran's trade value.
Wilpon on Ike Davis and the Mets in general on April 20th:
"Good hitter. Shitty team—good hitter."
MLBTR's take: I just thought this was a funny quote coming from Wilpon.
Bernie Madoff on Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz:
"He must feel that I betrayed him, as do most of my friends who were involved. Hopefully, they will understand the pressures I was under. I made money for them legitimately to start, but then I got trapped and was not able to work my way out of it. It just became impossible for me to extricate myself, or even try and extricate myself…Fred and Saul were only guilty of trusting their friend and I will live with that guilt and shame forever."
Toobin feels "there are many levels of self-delusion" in this quote, but it is "relevant evidence" as Irving Picard attempts to prove that Wilpon and his associates just looked the other way in Madoff's Ponzi scheme.
Fred Wilpon on investing money with Madoff:
"We certainly wouldn’t have had five hundred and fifty million dollars invested in something that’s a Ponzi scheme, when you know it can only evaporate at some point. We didn’t know."
For me, this is hard to argue. Toobin notes that as the Mets' risks in the Picard lawsuit far outweigh Picard's, "some kind of settlement seems likely, if not inevitable." For Fred Wilpon's sake, hopefully the sides can agree on an amount closer to the owner's initial $160MM-range expectation rather than Picard's one billion-range figure.
Quick Hits: Cabrera, Kazmir, Padres’ Draft
Here are a few items of note as Jarrod Saltalamacchia parks one over the Big Green Monster on Sunday Night Baseball …
- The Indians' acquisition of shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is looking like one of the organization's best moves in recent years, writes Bud Shaw of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer. The Tribe plucked Cabrera, now 25 and posting All-Star caliber numbers, from the Mariners in 2006 in exchange for Eduardo Perez. For more on how the 2011 Indians were assembled, check out Ben Nicholson-Smith's recent post.
- Angels lefty Scott Kazmir, who's spent most of the season on the disabled list, will soon begin a minor league rehab stint, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Kazmir may return to to the bigs as a long reliever, and if he continues to struggle, he could be released, in which case the Halos will have to eat his contract (what's left of his $12MM salary, plus a $2.5MM buyout after the season). Mike Axisa wrote in January that this one would be a make-or-break season for Kazmir, and it's not going well so far. Ben thinks the lefty may have to settle for a minor league deal this offseason.
- The Padres own six of the first 58 picks in next month's draft, writes Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and they face some pressure after they were unable to sign last year's first-round pick, Karsten Whitson. Center speculates that the Friars could focus on pitching and up-the-middle players, considering their farm is relatively stocked with corner infielders and outfielders. For more on the draft, be sure to check out our Amateur Draft Glossary.
MLBTR Originals: 5/15/11 – 5/21/11
A look back at the original posts published this week at MLBTR …
- Tim Dierkes looks at the Cardinals', Brewers' and Yankees' 2012 contract issues.
- If you don't know the Bradleys in the upcoming draft, Tim gets you up to speed.
- What will happen if the D'Backs and Pirates become sellers? Tim looks into it.
- With roughly one-quarter of the season in the can, Tim writes up the best performers among position players and pitchers of this offseason's impending free-agent class.
- Sergio Santos' rise from obscurity to White Sox closer is recounted by Ben Nicholson-Smith.
- Ben breaks down the variety of ways to use MLBTR.
- Ben examines the service time implications of Danny Duffy's callup.
- The Amateur Draft Glossary is ready. Learn it and love it!
- Jaime Garcia could be in for a big pay day via arbitration, writes Ben.
- An update on the 13 players we identified as facing make-or-break seasons in the spring.
- A handful of players who were non-tendered in the offseason are playing well, writes Ben, but fewer waiver claims are getting it done.
- Howard Megdal compares Jose Bautista's sudden prominence to that of Roger Maris.
- Ben lists the links to our Facebook, Twitter and RSS feeds for each club.
- Jason Giambi's three-homer game prompts Ben to give a rundown of the oldest players in MLB.
- Interleague Play resumed this weekend, and Ben has a look at this offseason's top players who switched leagues.
- What will a "bad" season (by his standards) mean for Albert Pujols as he draws nearer to free agency? Mark Polishuk examines.
Week In Review: 5/15/11 – 5/21/11
Let's take a look back at the past week here on MLBTR:
- It was a busy week out in Boston; the Red Sox acquired Franklin Morales from the Rockies for a player to be named later and designated Hideki Okajima for assignment. They also signed Kevin Millwood and designated Daniel Nava for assignment.
- The Diamondbacks cut a pair of their offseason acquisitions, releasing Russell Branyan and designating Armando Galarraga for assignment. Galarraga will remain with the organization though, after clearing waivers and accepting a Triple-A assignment.
- It came as no surprise when the Mariners released problematic outfielder Milton Bradley. He hit just .208/.298/.351 as a Mariner.
- The Phillies could face luxury taxes with some midseason additions. Their payroll currently sits at $175MM, and anything beyond $178MM would incur taxes of 22.5% – no small sum, even for an MLB team.
- Ken Rosenthal's Full Count video told us that the Phillies have inquired on Hunter Pence and that the Angels are looking for a corner infielder with some power to add to their lineup.
- The Orioles have explored a long-term deal with Adam Jones, but discussions didn't get very far. Jones likely wants to establish himself more before agreeing to any kind of long-term commitment.
- The Tigers will consider trading for offense this summer, but names like David Wright and Carlos Beltran are likely out of their price range.
- Fans looking for their team to acquire starting pitching can likely cross Derek Lowe off their wish lists; the Braves have no interest in dealing the veteran right-hander.
- For those who are anxiously anticipating the 2011 draft, ESPN's Keith Law released his first mock draft earlier this week.
- Lots of minor moves this week, as usual, but here's a few of the highlights: the Mets removed Chin-lung Hu from their 40-man roster when they outrighted him to Triple-A, the Rockies designated Felipe Paulino for assignment, the Rays designated Dan Johnson for assignment, the Royals DFA'ed Kanekoa Texeira, and Jess Todd's career has come full circle as he's now back with the Cardinals, who claimed him on waivers from the Yankees this week.
- To keep up with the rest of the minor moves from the week, check our Transactions tag, follow @mlbtrtrans on Twitter, or use MLBTR's Transaction Tracker.
Phillies Sign Scott Podsednik
The Phillies have agreed to a minor league deal with Scott Podsednik, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Podsednik, 35, is represented by Sports One Management. He signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays late this winter, but was released after hitting .254/.365/.352 through 85 minor league plate appearances. He also dealt with a bout of plantar fasciitis in Spring Training.
The former NL stolen base champion split 2010 between the Royals and Dodgers, hitting .297/.342/.382 with six home runs. Podsednik's speed has declined over the years and he's never been remarkably efficient (career success rate of 74.6%), but he's managed to leave the yard 13 times over the last two seasons after hitting just six homers from 2005-2008.
Podsednik provides affordable depth for a Phillies team that's seen its only productive outfielder this season, Shane Victorino, placed on the disabled list with a strained hamstring. Raul Ibanez and Ben Francisco have seen the majority of the time at the corners, but neither has managed to post even a .700 OPS. The team recently recalled top prospect Domonic Brown from Triple-A.
Pirates Notes: Hanrahan, Bundy, Lincoln, Veal
Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune and Kristy Robinson of Ohio Valley Athletics (via Twitter) both have some Pirates info:
- Biertempfel cites a trusted source in saying that the Rangers did indeed inquire on closer Joel Hanrahan, but the Pirates "turned aside" the overture and are not shopping him. Since being acquired from the Nationals, Hanrahan has totaled 122 2/3 innings of work in the Pirates' pen with a 2.79 ERA. His typically sky-high strikeout rate is down this year, but he's also displaying the best command of his career.
- In the same piece, Biertempfel writes that GM Neal Huntington refuted a report that top draft candidate Dylan Bundy has cautioned the Pirates not to select him. According to the report, Bundy does not want to give up his long toss routine, which the Pirates frown upon. Huntington, however says his organization avoids blanket approaches and isn't against long toss if used correctly. He says that several players in their minor league system currently use the technique.
- Robinson asked Huntington about Brad Lincoln, the #4 overall selection in the 2006 draft. Huntington says that Lincoln is throwing the ball well in Triple-A, but there's currently no room for him in the Major League rotation. Lincoln has posted a 4.27 ERA through 46 1/3 AAA innings, though his FIP is a much cleaner 3.42. He's struck out 42 and walked only eight (5.25 K/BB).
- Left-hander Donnie Veal has been assigned to High-A Bradenton as he continues his comeback from Tommy John surgery, tweets Biertempfel.
Quick Hits: Holliday, Twins, Astros, Nats, Red Sox
Some links to browse through on your Sunday afternoon…
- The Matt Holliday contract is looking better every day, writes Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Miklasz compares Holliday's deal to several other outfielders, including Alfonso Soriano and Jason Bay, in pointing out the early returns on the Cardinals' investment in Holliday.
- Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press looks at some of the biggest trades to date from Twins GM Bill Smith as the trade deadline approaches. The Twins figure to be full-fledged sellers for the first time under Smith's watch.
- Neither the Astros nor the Rockies are looking like winners of the Clint Barmes–for-Felipe Paulino swap this past offseason, writes the Houston Chronicle's Zachary Levine. The Rox just DFA'ed Paulino while Barmes is hitting .191 in Houston. As Levine points out, the Astros' bigger loss to the Rockies was former closer Matt Lindstrom.
- Zach Berman of the New Jersey Star Ledger takes a look at Nationals third base coach Bo Porter and his quest to become a Major League manager.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports opines that the Red Sox are a great team, but not yet complete as their bullpen has been overworked and exposed by a struggling rotation. He wonders if Boston will be in the hunt for an elite upgrade to its rotation prior to July 31 to take some of the pressure off the bullpen.