Heyman On Blue Jays, Royals, Bradley, Reyes
The trade that sent Vernon Wells from Toronto to Anaheim was the “Holy Grail” of deals for the Blue Jays and the best move of the winter, writes Jon Heyman of SI.com. Jose Bautista's five-year, $65MM contract places second on Heyman's list of teams' top offseason moves. As Heyman says, Bautista could have been in position to earn $100MM or more as a free agent after the season if the Blue Jays hadn't signed him long-term. Here are the rest of Heyman's rumors:
- Royals GM Dayton Moore is pleased with Jeff Francoeur's production so far and says the outfielder does a lot of things well, though he “doesn't have a knack for getting on base.” As I showed last week, the Royals are getting lots out of their free agent acquisitions so far in 2011.
- Can Milton Bradley find another job? Five MLB executives expressed at least strong doubt about Bradley's future job prospects in the Major Leagues. His fading offense and poor defense don't make up for the distractions he creates, which led one exec to predict that the outfielder's “career is over” now that Seattle designated him for assignment. Others expect Bradley to get one last chance.
- It's early, but Heyman suggests the White Sox, Tigers and A's look like possibilities for Carlos Beltran this summer. Beltran has a no-trade clause and is impressing scouts early on this season.
- The Red Sox and Blue Jays could be interested in catcher Jordan Weems, a high schooler who is moving up some draft boards.
- Heyman hears that it's “highly unlikely” that the Red Sox would be willing to meet the Mets' asking price for Jose Reyes this summer.
White Sox Designate Jeff Gray For Assignment
The White Sox designated righty Jeff Gray for assignment to open a spot on the 25-man roster for Jake Peavy, tweets MLB.com's Scott Merkin. The move leaves the Sox with 35 players on their 40-man roster.
Gray, 29, tossed 13 1/3 innings for the Sox this year, including a nice three-inning effort yesterday. The team had signed Gray to a minor league deal in December after he'd been outrighted by the Cubs. Gray had been part of the December '09 deal that sent Jake Fox and Aaron Miles to Oakland.
If The Twins Become Sellers
Baseball Prospectus' postseason odds report gives the Twins a 7.6% chance of making the playoffs. They're currently 11 games out in the AL Central; no team is further from first place. I'm not counting them out – Joe Mauer, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Delmon Young, and Jim Thome will come off the DL at some point, and I don't think the Twins truly have the worst rotation in the American League. Still, this is a club no one considered a possible seller before the season. What could they offer a few months from now?
- Relievers Joe Nathan and Matt Capps make more than $20MM combined this year, so trading them at the deadline would save the Twins nearly $7MM. Problem is, Nathan has been used in mop-up situations lately and he'll need to string together a few good months to have trade value. Even then, most teams will not be able to take on his entire contract. It's been an odd year for Capps, who's allowing a lot of flyballs, no walks, few hits, and few strikeouts. Still, he's five for six in save opportunities and someone might overpay for him again.
- The Twins exercised a pretty steep $10.5MM option on Michael Cuddyer in November, and so far the decision has not paid off. He will also need to build up trade value.
- Carl Pavano's strikeout rate continued to slip this year, but maybe he can right the ship and pitch to a low 4.00s ERA from here on out. Plenty of teams would like to acquire an innings guy, but would the Twins prefer to keep Pavano at $8.5MM for 2012?
- Outfielder/DH Jason Kubel won't keep hitting .347, but he's having a great year and is only earning $5.25MM. Maybe the Twins want to re-sign him, but he could fetch something nice on the trade market. Assuming his back is OK, plenty of teams will be interested in renting Jim Thome as well.
- The no-hitter notwithstanding, trading Francisco Liriano anytime soon would be selling low. When he's right he's what every contender craves: a front-end starter who is more than a rental. A few months ago trading Liriano seemed crazy, and it's possible the Twins still consider him integral for 2012.
- Kevin Slowey recently recovered from a shoulder strain, but he's still mired in long relief for the Twins after making 28 starts in 2010. He's more affordable than Pavano and is under team control through 2013.
Potentially Available Relievers
Decent relievers are always a hot commodity at the trade deadline. The Rangers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rays, Indians, and Phillies are just a few contenders who might be in the market for bullpen help a few months from now. What will the trade market look like?
- The Padres are in good position to sell relievers, with impending free agents Heath Bell and Chad Qualls prime candidates. You also have to wonder if GM Jed Hoyer will consider trading Mike Adams, who is under control through '12 but will see his salary jump next year.
- If he's healthy, Arizona's Aaron Heilman probably could be acquired easily. Closer J.J. Putz would be tougher to get, but GM Kevin Towers will probably listen.
- Should the Cubs fall out of contention, they'd probably move lefty John Grabow just for a little salary relief. Kerry Wood would make sense too, though he has strong ties to Chicago and took less to sign with the Cubs. Similarly, the Brewers could part with veterans LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito if they're not contending in July.
- If the Pirates receive good offers for Joel Hanrahan, Chris Resop, Jose Veras, or Joe Beimel, will they hold off in the name of finishing above .500? My guess is that Neal Huntington will keep a very open mind.
- The Mets have much to offer. Taylor Buchholz, who is under team control through next year, has been excellent. Veterans Francisco Rodriguez, Jason Isringhausen, and Tim Byrdak should be available as well. The problem with K-Rod: his $17.5MM option for next year vests with 43 more games finished.
- If the Twins' struggles continue, they could save money by trading Matt Capps and/or Joe Nathan. Teams seeking more than a rental could ask about lefties Glen Perkins and Jose Mijares. The White Sox have gotten disappointing results from Will Ohman, Tony Pena, and Matt Thornton, but probably prefer to keep Thornton around for the future.
- I don't see why the Orioles wouldn't offer up most of their veteran relievers, as Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez, and Kevin Gregg could hold appeal. Gonzalez and Gregg would involve taking on big salaries, however.
- Toronto's pen ranks third in the AL with a 3.04 ERA, and they've got enticing veterans galore. Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Carlos Villanueva, and Casey Janssen are pitching well; Octavio Dotel not so much. Most Jays relievers can be controlled for 2012 or beyond, which could be viewed as both a reason to keep them and a reason they'll have extra appeal as trade targets.
- Todd Coffey, Brandon League, Jose Valverde, Jonathan Broxton, Mike MacDougal, and Vicente Padilla could also become available depending on their teams' circumstances.
NL Central Links: All Six Teams
The Cardinals lead the NL Central by one game over the Reds. A link for each of the six teams:
- The $680MM deal to sell the Astros to Jim Crane's group "could be completed as early as next week," report Zachary Levine and Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle. Ownership of the club could be tranferred to Crane "as early as July," they write. Crane is believed to prefer having an agreement in place before the June 6th draft, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
- Pirates reliever Jose Ascanio's rehab period ends today, reports Colin Dunlap of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and the team must decide whether to add the out of options righty to the 25-man roster or risk losing him to another team. The 26-year-old has been battling shoulder and elbow injuries, but MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch wrote Monday that adding him to the big league bullpen is the most likely move.
- You read yesterday about the hug heard 'round the Midwest, as Cubs GM Jim Hendry embraced Albert Pujols before the game at Wrigley. The hug means next to nothing; as CSN's Patrick Mooney points out, Hendry has tons of connections throughout the industry. Still, it can't hurt to note that Cubs owner Tom Ricketts shook hands with the free agent to be as well.
- Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has begun an "open-ended convalescence" in the words of Joe Strauss' source, as he recovers from shingles. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter says La Russa "will miss the rest of the team's current road trip and perhaps significantly more time."
- Despite allowing five runs and nine hits in six innings, Brewers offseason acquisition Shaun Marcum picked up his fourth win yesterday. Marcum is showing no ill effects from his springtime shoulder stiffness; his 4.17 K/BB ratio ranks sixth in the NL. With a strong season I can see him getting close to $10MM for 2012, his final arbitration year.
- Aroldis Chapman won't be sent to the minors to work out his issues, Reds manager Dusty Baker told John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The hard-throwing lefty has allowed at least one run and two walks in each of his last three appearances.
Mets Unlikely To Trade Reyes And Re-Sign Him
Dreaming up scenarios where the Mets cash in shortstop Jose Reyes for top prospects this summer and then re-sign him after the season? "I think that's unlikely," GM Sandy Alderson told Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal. Alderson noted that such examples are rare, if not unprecedented.
Additionally, Alderson hammered home another important point: in general, trade talks don't get serious until June, and major trades are most likely to happen in July. Realistically, a Reyes trade would probably occur over two months from now, and a lot can happen during that time.
If the Mets decide to try to re-sign Reyes – a big if – Costa says waiting until after the season "is a risk they appear willing to take." Reyes, 27, is hitting .318/.365/.490 in 171 plate appearances this year. If that holds up, he figures to top $100MM on the open market.
2012 Contract Issues: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (3)
- The Rockies don't have any crucial players eligible for free agency after the season. Jose Lopez is the closest to a regular, but he's been terrible this year.
- Role players Jason Giambi and Alfredo Amezaga are also eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (1)
- Aaron Cook: $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. Cook is rehabbing from a shoulder injury and a broken finger. The Rockies won't be exercising their side of this option.
Arbitration Eligible (6)
- First time: Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, Franklin Morales
- Second time: Ian Stewart, Felipe Paulino
- Third time: Ryan Spilborghs
The Rockies' arbitration class lacks intrigue as well. Smith and Fowler may have emerged as quality regulars, but they don't have robust career numbers and won't be paid a ton. Stewart, Spilborghs, and Paulino have struggled mightily in the early going, so they'll be eyeing the non-tender deadline with trepidation.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Rockies' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $65.284MM. This club is all about cost certainty. We can throw in $6MM for first-timers Smith, Fowler, and Morales to get to the $71MM range, about $11MM short of this year's payroll. One thing I haven't mentioned in these posts is that minimum-salary players require millions of dollars too, and they're not factored into these rough calculations. At any rate, even if they let Stewart, Spilborghs, and Paulino go, the Rockies don't project to have much money to work with if they hold payroll steady. That might be fine, because they have players they can pencil in at every spot.
Latest On McCourt’s Clash With MLB
The 16-20 Dodgers are in fourth place in the NL West, but that's the least of Frank McCourt's worries. The Dodgers owner is in the midst of a clash with MLB over control of his team; here's the latest:
- A Dodgers attorney argued today that McCourt faces “discriminatory and unfair treatment through a process designed to reach a predetermined outcome,” according to Yahoo’s Tim Brown. Former Padres president Dick Freeman was initially appointed as an assistant for monitor Tom Schieffer, even though Freeman had worked for Jamie McCourt, Frank's ex-wife. Commissioner Bud Selig has since ordered that Freeman be removed from the assignment.
- MLB is preparing for the possibility that McCourt could take the Dodgers into bankruptcy court, according to Bill Shaikin of the LA Times. Bankruptcy could provide McCourt with what he needs to allow him to retain control of the Dodgers for the time being, according to experts who spoke with the Times.
A’s Young Starters Basically Untouchable
The A's will explore ways of upgrading their roster this season, but the youngest members of their rotation are 'basically untouchable,' according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez and Tyson Ross are likely staying put this summer, Olney reports.
Dallas Braden, now on the 15-day DL and Brandon McCarthy round out Oakland's rotation, which could be a constant for years to come. The A's have Anderson and Cahill under team control through 2015 and 2017, respectively. Ross isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2016 season, Gonzalez isn't eligible until after 2015 and Braden is under team control for 2012-13.
A's starters are first in the majors in ERA (2.59), second in innings pitched (236) and third in BB/9 (2.48) and xFIP (3.29). The early results are good and it wouldn't be hard to argue that Gonzalez (25), Ross (24), Cahill (23) and Anderson (23) have yet to reach their prime.
MLBTR's Luke Adams recently looked at Gonzalez as an extension candidate and I explained why the A's may choose to go year-to-year with Gonzalez and Braden instead of extending the left-handers.
Quick Hits: Indians, Mariners, Orioles
Another round of links after a memorable duel between Cy Young candidates Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson in Miami…
- Indians manager Manny Acta told Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com that he doesn’t hold anything against the people who predicted that the Indians would finish at the bottom of the AL Central standings (Twitter link). "The people who picked against us are the same people who picked us to win in 2008,” he said. “It's understandable."
- In honor of Milton Bradley, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times looks at some noteworthy contracts the Mariners have had to swallow in the past.
- The Orioles signed outfielder/first baseman Darryl Crosier to a minor league deal, according to Steve Gould of the Baltimore Sun. Director of player development Tripp Norton and scout Dean Albany watched Crosier play earlier in the month.