Astros Notes: Crane, Pence, Draft
At 13-22, the Astros currently have the worst record in the National League. Baseball Prospectus continues to give them a 0.0% chance at the playoffs. The Astros have scored 4.2 runs per game, which ranks seventh in the league. However, their bullpen has the NL's worst ERA at 5.40. The starting pitching has been subpar as well at 4.81, though that ranking is largely due to J.A. Happ (5.75) and the recently-designated Nelson Figueroa (8.28 as a starter). On to today's notes…
- Only "a little fine-tuning" remains to complete the sale of the Astros to Jim Crane, reports Bob Allen of ABC 13 out of Houston. Allen expects the sale price to be around $680MM.
- I covered the Astros' 2012 contract issues last week; it will be interesting to see how the new ownership approaches the offseason. If Hunter Pence reaches 100 RBIs for the first time in his career, will he set a new third-time arbitration record for position players going year by year? Will the Astros be willing to pay him eight figures?
- Astros fans can look forward to the June 6th draft, in which the team picks 11th overall. Three Baseball America experts did a mock draft as if they were in charge of the teams, and Conor Glassey took Oklahoma high school righty Dylan Bundy for Houston after considering George Springer and Taylor Jungmann. Prior to the season, prospect gurus such as Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, and BA all ranked the Astros' farm system 26th or worse among the 30 teams.
- MLBTR has all kinds of Astros-centric pages to check out: Facebook, Twitter, RSS, and forums.
2012 MLB Free Agent List
Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and C.C. Sabathia lead the list of players eligible for free agency after the season. I recently updated our 2012 MLB free agent list, so please check it out and bookmark it.
Arbitration Records: Position Players
Recently we looked at the arbitration records for starting pitchers and catchers. Today let's look at the general position player records.
- First time: Ryan Howard – $10MM (2008).
- Second time: Miguel Cabrera – $11.3MM (2007).
- Third time: Prince Fielder – $15.5MM (2011). Preceded by two-year deal. Otherwise Alfonso Soriano at $10MM in 2006.
Howard won a hearing against the Phillies in February of '08, as his $10MM submission was chosen over the team's surprisingly low $7MM figure. Howard had a chance to continue smashing arbitration records, but a year later he signed a three-year extension after submitting $18MM against the team's $14MM.
Had he gone to arbitration this year, I don't think Joey Votto would have set a new first-time record. However, he could have come close and then set a second-time record for '12. Instead, Votto signed a deal paying $38MM for his three arbitration years. Howard's record might stand for a while – it's been over three years, but he came into that hearing with 129 home runs, 353 RBIs, a Rookie of the Year award, an MVP, and a fifth-place MVP finish.
Cabrera's second-time record isn't much higher than Howard's first-time salary. Still, only a superstar player can get to that level in his second arbitration year. Cabrera signed an eight-year deal a couple of months after agreeing at $11.3MM for '08, but that salary remained unchanged.
If you exclude Fielder and Mark Teixeira from the third-year group because they did not go year-to-year, Soriano's $10MM third-time mark seems especially fragile. The Astros' Hunter Pence, who won a $6.9MM second-year salary in a hearing this year, has a shot at Soriano for '12. Shin-Soo Choo, a Scott Boras client with a nice first-time salary of $3.975MM, could also keep going year-to-year and exceed $10MM for his third time.
2012 Contract Issues: Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are next in our 2012 Contract Issues series. Here's what the team faces after the 2011 season:
Eligible For Free Agency (7)
- Raul Ibanez will probably be allowed to leave, freeing up some cash and leaving an opening in left field for the Phillies.
- Shortstop Jimmy Rollins hasn't been a power guy for several years, but he is sporting a career-best walk rate currently. There is a lot of baseball left to be played, but Rollins, 33 in November, could be the cheaper free agent alternative to Jose Reyes. The Phils don't have an obvious replacement for Rollins.
- Ryan Madson, a Scott Boras client, is four-for-four in save opportunities this year with Brad Lidge and Jose Contreras out. Madson wants to finish his career with the Phillies and be a closer. The team could let Lidge go and sign Madson for something like three years and $18MM.
- Danys Baez, Brian Schneider, Ross Gload, and J.C. Romero will also be eligible for free agency.
Contract Options (2)
- Roy Oswalt: $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout. Oswalt is undecided on whether to play next year. He's currently on the DL with back pain, so the option seems up in the air for both sides.
- Brad Lidge: $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout. Lidge is recovering from a shoulder injury; it's tough to see the Phillies picking this one up.
Arbitration Eligible (6)
- First time: Wilson Valdez, Scott Mathieson
- Second time: Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco, Pete Orr
- Third time: None
- Fourth time: Cole Hamels
Not all of these players will make it to the point of being tendered contracts. The only lock is Hamels, who signed an extension in January of '09 but left his fourth arbitration year open. He's working from a $9.5MM salary and having a strong year so far. The arbitration cases of Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver could be factors (more on those here and here), if one or both of them settles first. $15MM is a reasonable estimate for Hamels, though. Hamels wants to stay, but the team has yet to approach him about an extension.
2012 Payroll Obligation
The Phillies' 2012 payroll obligation, according to Cot's, is $112.903MM including buyouts for Oswalt and Lidge. If another $15MM goes to Hamels, they're at $128MM, about $38MM shy of this year's $166MM high water mark. A lot of that money could be eaten up if Rollins, Madson, Oswalt, Kendrick, and Francisco are retained, which are open questions at this point. The Phillies have flexibility if they maintain their payroll, but also have several crucial free agents and one huge arbitration case.
Quick Hits: Pirates, Atchison, Astros
The Pirates are over .500 at 18-17. Here are some links for Monday night, as we wonder how long they can maintain a winning record…
- Pirates starters have been pitching well and manager Clint Hurdle tells MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch that pitching can be contagious, just like hitting. GM Neal Huntington has acquired two of his starters in the last year: James McDonald (trade) and Kevin Correia (free agency).
- As Jonathan Mayo explains at MLB.com, potential changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement could make drafted players more eager to sign. One scouting director expects to see a few more signings than usual in 2011.
- Red Sox reliever Scott Atchison was added to Boston's Triple-A roster after being optioned to the minors, according to Alex Speier of WEEI.com (on Twitter). The Red Sox designated Atchison for assignment Friday in what was "a purely procedural move," according to Speier.
- Houston attorney Kenny Friedman told Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner that he maintains interest in buying the Astros. Though Jim Crane now has an exclusive negotiating window during which he can buy the team, Friedman, the father of Rays executive Andrew Friedman, is working on his bid.
Astros Designate Nelson Figueroa For Assignment
The Astros designated Nelson Figueroa for assignment according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart (on Twitter). Houston called up Sergio Escalona in a corresponding move.
Figueroa made the Astros' rotation out of Spring Training, but has since been demoted to the bullpen. After a two-inning outing tonight in which he allowed a run and five baserunners, Figueroa has a season ERA of 8.69 with 16 walks, 45 hits allowed and 17 strikeouts. Last year he posted a 3.22 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 67 innings as a swingman.
If the 36-year-old right-hander gets picked up off of waivers, it will the fourth time he has been claimed in his nine-year career. Just last year, the Phillies selected Figueroa off of waivers from the Mets and the Astros nabbed him from the Phillies.
AL Central Notes: Danks, Indians, Draft
Links from the AL Central, as Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander share the American League player of the week award in recognition of their respective no-hitters…
- John Danks told MLB.com's Scott Merkin that he loves playing for the White Sox and hopes he doesn't face the "harsh reality" of being involved in a deadline deal. However, the left-hander realizes trades are a part of the game.
- MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian provides a clear-headed look ahead to how the Indians might approach the trade deadline if they’re still contending in July.
- UCLA right-hander Trevor Bauer will not get past the Indians, who select 8th overall in this June's draft, according to Keith Law on ESPN.com's Baseball Today podcast. Bauer and teammate Gerrit Cole are among the most highly-touted draft eligible pitching prospects.
- Earlier tonight, I took a look at the development of Tigers catcher Alex Avila.
Unusual Early Results For The Rays’ Remade Bullpen
Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Dan Wheeler, Randy Choate, Grant Balfour and Chad Qualls all hit free agency last offseason, which created lots of uncertainty and a shortage of relievers for the low-budget Rays. Executive VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman acknowledged from the beginning of the offseason that adding "a meaningful number of bullpen arms" was a top priority for the winter.
One fifth of the way through the season, the Rays' bullpen has been effective, while relievers such as Soriano and Benoit have struggled for their respective new clubs. Led by Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Juan Cruz and Adam Russell, newcomers have accounted for 78% of the bullpen's innings this year. Now that Jake McGee is back in the minor leagues, Andy Sonnanstine is the lone member of Joe Maddon's 'pen that pitched for the 2010 team that won the AL East.
Low-risk, low-budget free agents (Farnsworth, Peralta and Cruz) the spoils of the Jason Bartlett trade (Russell, Cesar Ramos and Brandon Gomes) and a waiver claim (Rob Delaney) have combined with two holdovers (Sonnanstine and McGee) to post a 2.69 ERA through 87 innings of work. That bullpen ERA is good for third-best in baseball, as is the .582 OPS allowed by the 'pen so far. No bullpen has allowed fewer walks than the Rays (34) and only the Mariners (3) have allowed fewer homers than Tampa (4).
But there are indications that the Rays shouldn't expect these results from their new 'pen all season. Their relievers are last in the majors with 51 Ks and 5.3 K/9 and they're second-last in innings pitched (87) and BABIP (.215). Perhaps most telling of all is their 4.41 xFIP (also second-last in the majors), which is nearly two runs higher than their ERA.
Outstanding production isn't sustainable with some of the worst peripherals in the league, so it appears likely that the group's performance will drop off. But given the losses the Rays sustained last winter, it's impressive that Friedman's new collection of relievers has been this effective 20% of the way through another season.
Mets Notes: Young, Mejia, Selig
The Mets announced bad news for a key member of the current team (Chris Young), and an integral part of future Mets teams (Jenrry Mejia). Here are the details on the pitchers, plus a note on the club's financial issues:
- Young has an anterior capsule tear in his throwing shoulder – the same injury Johan Santana had – according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (Twitter links). Young faces surgery or lots of rehab.
- As Rubin pointed out earlier today, Young won't reach any of the incentives in his contract if he doesn’t pitch again this season. In that case, the Mets will only be responsible for his $1.1MM base salary.
- Mejia will have Tommy John surgery, according to Rubin (on Twitter). The Mets announced last week that Mejia, their top prospect, has a complete MCL tear of the right elbow.
- Commissioner Bud Selig told The Mike Lupica Show that the Dodgers need to be tracked carefully and that the Mets are working toward a solution for their financial problems. Mike Mazzeo of ESPNNewYork.com has the details and audio from ESPN New York 1050.
Milton Bradley DFA Reaction
The Mariners designated Milton Bradley for assignment today, putting the future of the 33-year-old former All-Star in doubt. He's talented, but he's not hitting, as his .218/.313/.356 line shows. And though he says the right things at times, he causes trouble, as you might expect for a player who has been with eight organizations this decade. Here's the latest reaction to the move:
- "We felt Milton was not part of our future and not part of our present. Therefore, the move was made," GM Jack Zduriencik explained, according to MLB.com's Greg Johns.
- Yahoo's Tim Brown suggests Bradley might finally get peace and quiet – but lose the opportunity to play Major League baseball.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times points out that for all of Bradley's shortcomings and frustrating behavior, he's human.
- Let's hear your reaction to the move in the comments section.