Is James Shields The Next Rays’ Starter To Go?
Quality starting pitching is the best currency in the game, and no team has traded more of it in recent years than the Rays. They've traded what amounts to an above-average rotation within the last 27 months alone: Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Mitch Talbot, and Scott Kazmir. There are a number of teams out there that would trade their starting staff for that fivesome right now.
Tampa was able to trade away all those arms because their farm system continues to pump out top flight pitching prospects. If you dig through Baseball America's all-time top 100 prospects lists, you'll see that the franchise hasn't had a top pitching prospect bust since Dewon Brazelton, the third overall pick in the 2001 draft. That's the result of tremendous scouting and player development, as well as incredible luck.
If it wasn't for B.J. Upton's brief cameo in 2004, the longest tenured player on the team would be 29-year-old righty James Shields. He's given the Rays four straight seasons of 200+ innings with a 4.17 ERA overall, though he slipped to a 5.18 ERA with a league leading 34 homers allowed last summer. The 2011 season is the last guaranteed year on Shields' contract ($4.25MM), though he would still be under control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2012. The club also holds very affordable options for 2012 ($7MM), 2013 ($9MM), and 2014 ($12MM).
With David Price, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, and Jeff Niemann still years away from huge paydays, Shields is the obvious candidate to be the next piece of trade bait. That contract is definitely team friendly, and guys that you can pencil in for 200 innings a year don't exactly grow on trees. As an added bonus, his fastball velocity has actually increased over the last few years, quite uncommon for pitchers that have logged so many innings. Throw in AL East and playoff experience, and you've got a hot commodity. Just look at the demand for Garza.
Alex Torres (acquired in the Kazmir trade) and Alex Cobb will begin the 2011 season just a phone call away in Triple-A, and they represent the next wave of pitching help. Behind them will be Nick Barnese, Alex Colome, and Matt Moore in Double-A, and soon enough we'll be talking about Enny Romero and Jake Thompson in the same way. All seven of those guys were ranked among the team's 16 best prospects in the latest edition of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook.
Both the Rangers and Rockies had their eye on Shields this offseason, but the market for his services certainly wouldn't be limited to those two clubs. The Yankees and Nationals are known to be seeking pitching at the moment, and the Cardinals could also join the mix in the wake of Adam Wainwright's injury. More than likely, Tampa will hold onto Shields at least for the first half of the season before deciding to move him. They also have the option of waiting until next offseason, when they could take advantage of a thin free agent pitching market.
The Rays have been very successful in recent years thanks to their never-ending cycle of pitching. They get what they can out of a pitcher, then trade him once his contract becomes prohibitive and simply replace him with another high-end, young (and cheap) arm. Shields has started the last three Opening Days for Tampa, but 2011 could be his last with the team.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Julio Lugo Hoping For A Chance
It's hard to believe that just four offseasons ago, Julio Lugo was the recipient of a contract that guaranteed him $36MM. Now he finds himself unemployed, telling Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes (link in Spanish) that he still hopes a team will take a chance on him this season…
"I want to play, I'm healthy," said Lugo. "The last thing you lose is hope … I keep working every day to be ready when someone remembers my name and believes I can help … I can help in many ways, while playing in different positions in the infield and outfield, run, pinch hit."
Lugo, 35, spent last season with the Orioles, hitting just .249/.298/.282 in 264 plate appearances. The Red Sox designated him for assignment in July 2009, trading him to the Cardinals for Chris Duncan a few days later. Boston paid Lugo almost $13MM over the last year-and-a-half to play in St. Louis and Baltimore.
A right-handed bat with some speed, Lugo has played every position but pitcher, catcher, and first base in his career. As far as we know, no team has expressed interest in him this winter, but all it takes is one Spring Training injury for that phone to ring.
Padres Sign Jon Leicester
The Padres have signed right-handed reliever Jon Leicester to a minor league contract according to the transactions page of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. He is not in big league camp as a non-roster invitee according to the team's official site.
Leicester, 31, appeared in 48 games (six starts) with the Cubs and Orioles from 2004 through 2007, pitching to a 5.88 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 82 2/3 innings. He's spent the last two years in Japan, making 55 relief appearances for the Orix Buffaloes. In 62 2/3 innings on the other side of the pond, Leicester owns a 4.88 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.
Union Chief: Contraction Not A Likely Threat To Rays
Contraction is not likely to be a threat to the Rays existence, according to players union chief Michael Weiner, writes Marc Topkin St. Petersburg Times. Furthermore, if the owners do raise the idea of eliminating teams in the upcoming labor negotiations, the union is poised to fight it.
"Having been in bargaining in baseball since the late '80s, anything is fathomable, so we don't either take anything for granted or rule anything out,'' Weiner said after meeting with Rays players . "…All I would say is if that changes, if contraction becomes a goal of the owners in this negotiation, the tenor of the talks would change quickly and dramatically.''
Comissioner Bud Selig was also asked about the issue of contraction today and said that it is not an option – even for teams struggling financially such as the Rays and Athletics, writes Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times.
Weiner added that the union is less-than-thrilled with Tampa Bay's slashing of payroll and will monitor the club's spending in order to ensure its long-term health. The team's payroll is expected to be less than $60MM, a drop-off from $72MM in 2010.
Quick Hits: LaPorta, Pirates, Nishioka, Tigers
Saturday afternoon linkage..
- Once the key component in the deat that sent CC Sabathia to the Brewers, Indians slugger Matt LaPorta is eager to regain his old form in 2011, writes Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
- The Pirates need to increase their revenue if they hope to bring their payroll to around $70-$80MM, despite the perception of some, writes Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- Twins manager Rod Gardenhire says that Japanese import Tsuyoski Nishioka will play at second base this season, tweets Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune.
- The Tigers' current approach to building their rotation stands out from the rest, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith in a piece for Fangraphs.
Mets Want Reyes To Improve OBP Before New Deal
One of the key components of being a leadoff man is the ability to get on base, and people familiar with the Mets' thinking tell SI.com's Jon Heyman that the team wants Jose Reyes to improve his on-base percentage before they give him a multiyear deal (Twitter link). The 27-year-old posted a .321 OBP in 2010.
Reyes' OBP was an issue earlier in his career as well; he got on base just 30.3% of the time in his first three seasons, a span of 1,254 plate appearances. He responded by posting an OBP between .354 and .358 in the next three years before a hamstring injury shortened his 2009 campaign. Reyes' career OBP is .335, and for comparison's sake, leadoff hitters around the game got on base at a .329 clip in 2010.
Reyes will earn $11MM in 2011 after the Mets exercised the club option in his contract. He's scheduled to be a free agent after the season. Last month we heard that the team wants to see if Reyes can stay healthy this summer before offering him a new contract. That's fine with the switch-hitting shortstop; he recently said he prefers to wait until after the season to talk about a new deal anyway.
Frank Catalanotto Says He’s Through Playing
Journeyman Frank Catalanotto is not "officially" retired yet, but today he told David Lennon of Newsday that he's through playing (Twitter link). Catalanotto has a part-time gig coaching Team Italy, and he's in demand for television and radio work.
The 36-year-old carved out a big league career that spanned 14 seasons by being a left-handed bat and versatile. Catalanotto owns a more than respectable .291/.357/.445 batting line with 84 career homers, and he played every position other than pitcher, catcher, shortstop, and center field at one time or another. His best season came with the Rangers in 2001, when he hit .330/.391/.490 with 11 homers, 31 doubles, and just 55 strikeouts in 512 plate appearances.
Catalanotto broke camp with the Mets as a bench player last year, hitting .160/.192/.200 in 26 plate appearances before being designated for assignment in May. He first hinted at retirement shortly thereafter. Catalanotto played for the Tigers, Rangers (two stints), Blue Jays, and Brewers in addition to the Mets, and Baseball-Reference.com has his career earnings at just north of $22MM.
Quick Hits: Abreu, Uribe, Rendon, Sanches
This day in baseball history saw the birth of the Blue Jays in 1943…the Philadelphia Blue Jays, that is. The Phillies adopted the 'Blue Jays' nickname in what new team president Bob Carpenter saw as a break from the club's largely mediocre history. The nickname didn't stick, however, and it wasn't until the Toronto expansion franchise came into being that the Blue Jays name returned to Major League Baseball.
Some news items to take us into the weekend…
- Bobby Abreu's $9MM option for 2012 will vest if he makes 433 plate appearances this season. As Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com points out, the Angels could face a tough playing-time decision since the veteran is coming off his worst full season, yet can still be productive. MLBTR's Mike Axisa recently profiled Abreu as a make-or-break year player, though given Abreu's durability, his status for 2012 shouldn't be in question as long as the Halos play him.
- Juan Uribe tells Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times that the Dodgers contacted his agent almost every day before finally signing him to a three-year, $21MM contract.
- Stephen Goff of the Houston Examiner profiles Anthony Rendon, who may be the first overall pick in June's amateur draft.
- Right-hander Brian Sanches is out of options and is battling for the last spot in the Marlins' bullpen, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Sanches has a 2.40 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 120 innings for Florida over the last two seasons, so he'll definitely draw interest if the Marlins put him on waivers or try to trade him.
- Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs.com looks at the 10 completed and about-to-be-completed $100MM contracts in baseball history. Of those 10 players, only four played consistently well enough to make those contracts a wise investment — Derek Jeter, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez. (Rangers fans may argue that last one, but Slowinski is strictly looking at player performance.)
- The Orioles agreed to terms with all of their pre-arbitration players except for right-hander Jason Berken, whose contract was renewed, reports Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. Berken also had his deal renewed last season.
- Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com lists the top 10 prospects in the Padres' system. Mayo puts three pitchers (Casey Kelly, Simon Castro, Cory Luebke) in San Diego's top four, as he notes the emphasis the team puts on developing young arms.
- In a chat with fans on ESPNChicago.com, Bruce Levine notes that scouts were in attendance to see Carlos Silva during his six-run first inning and subsequent dugout altercation with Aramis Ramirez on Wednesday. Levine says that the Cubs would probably be able to trade Silva, not release him, if they wanted to part ways. There's also the $11.5MM salary Silva is owed for this season that the Cubs would have to swallow if they released the right-hander.
Gammons On Prospects, A’s, Kalish, Iglesias
Peter Gammons appeared on WEEI's Minor Details podcast to discuss the value of a deep minor league system, the difficulty in finding power hitters, and, of course, the Red Sox. WEEI's Alex Speier has the partial transcript, and here are some of the highlights…
- The value of top prospects, Gammons notes, is higher than ever before since teams are realizing that it isn't cost-effective to sign free agents when those older players are entering a decline phase. Dealing for a star player in his prime is now the preferred option for a team like Boston that has a strong minor league system. “Having three really good prospects and getting Adrian Gonzalez so they won’t have to pay him past the age of 35, I think that’s part of it," Gammons said.
- To wit, Gammons believes the Yankees will forego trying for a free agent pitcher and instead use their own deep minor league system to acquire a pitcher like Brett Anderson or Gio Gonzalez "if Oakland doesn’t get off to a really good start." I'm not sure I agree with Gammons on this one. It's hard to believe the A's would deal Anderson or Gonzalez for anything short of a totally absurd offer, be it from the Yankees or anyone.
- Shortstop Jose Iglesias and outfielder Ryan Kalish are "without question" going to be regulars for Boston in 2012. This puts them right on track to succeed incumbents Marco Scutaro and J.D. Drew, who are both in the last year of their contracts.
- Theo Epstein told Gammons before the 2005 draft that drug testing was going to create "a new game over the next five to 10 years," and then the Sox drafted Jacoby Ellsbury in the first round. Gammons notes that Boston has yet to develop a consistent power hitter in Epstein's regime, aside from Kevin Youkilis (who was drafted by former Sox GM Dan Duquette).
D’Backs Eyeing Lefty Relievers; Abreu, Rosa Available
The Diamondbacks are looking for some left-handed relief help, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The club added the likes of right-hander J.J. Putz over the winter to improve their league-worst bullpen, but the Snakes' current southpaw relief options include Mike Hampton, Zach Kroenke, Jordan Norberto and Joe Paterson, plus Clay Zavada returning from Tommy John surgery.
Needless to say, Arizona will be paying close attention to lefties are cut from other Spring Training camps, but if the team wants to swing a deal, Piecoro says infielder Tony Abreu and right-hander Carlos Rosa could be available.
Abreu is battling Geoff Blum, Ryan Roberts and Willie Bloomquist for the utility infield job, while Rosa is one of several right-handers on the Diamondbacks' roster. Rosa was acquired from Kansas City last season and has a 3.97 career ERA in 34 Major League innings, but he also allowed 15 walks (against just 16 strikeouts) in his brief career.