The Cubs' asking price for Matt Garza is "out of the question" for the Yankees, Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com wrote yesterday. The Cubs want at least two of Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances from the Yankees, one of many teams with interest in the right-hander. Here are the latest rumors on Garza:
- The Yankees weren't willing to meet the Athletics' asking price for Gio Gonzalez, and they preferred Gonzalez to Garza, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Sherman says the Yankees are "essentially not in" on Garza.
- The Yankees are actively seeking rotation help, but don't like Garza at his current price, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter).
- David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com hears that the Cubs’ asking price is "tremendously high" and that "interested parties" are seeing how high the bidding will go (Twitter link).
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs says Garza would be worth a position player prospect in the #11-50 range or a couple of prospects from the back end of the top 100 in MLB. Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein are evidently hoping for more.
I think it’s time to stop talking about this (for the Yankees) because I doubt the asking price will come down and there is no way Cashman is going to accept that. I like Garza, but why don’t we take a chance with Oswalt…don’t get it.
Or Gavin Floyd, who will come much cheaper.
Exactly theres really no downside to signing Oswalt if he only wants 1 year
Rangers not Yankees fan but I like Oswalt with Yanks, there is a history there with aging former start pitchers turning in a couple really good years and Oswalt is perfect in that sense.
If both the jays and the yankees are out because of the price then chances are the price will go down otherwise he’d have to settle for what the tigers and the marlins could offer which isnt a lot.
Great call on Oswalt. Should be cheap(ish), and if he’s happy and doing well, you could extend him.
better than trading 2 of your top prospects or paying Edwin Jackson $75-85 mil over 5 seasons.
When did Oswalt become a viable option to be anything other than a 4 or 5?
to Tigers for Turner, Oliver/Crosby, Brantly, and Paulino.
wow
Care to elaborate?
I think he’s saying wow as in that’s a lot to give up.
As long as we get to keep Smyly and Castellanos, I don’t mind.
You should mind. Turner is a high enough prospect where he might be a little overcompensation for just 2 years of Garza. Who even knows Turner could be putting up better numbers as soon as next year, and you want to give all of those extra pieces..?
You think so? I see one really good prospect (top 10-15 probably) and 3 non-top 100 prospects, which is not to say that either Cosby/Oliver will never move back into top 100 or that Paulina or Bryant might not ever be top 100’s after 2012 season.
If the writer is correct, and I’m not saying he is, then I wonder if the Yanks could overwhelm the Cubs with something like….
Gary Sanchez + Heathcott + Noesi + Adams
or
Betances + Mason Williams + Warren/Phelps
I’ve never heard Sanchez mentioned in trade rumors before or heard any refusal to part with him.
”
You think so? I see one really good prospect (top 10-15 probably) and 3 non-top 100 prospects”
“Gary Sanchez + Heathcott + Noesi + Adams”
In other words: one really good prospect (30 on BA) and three 3 non-top 100 prospects.
or
One really good prospect and two of three non top-100 rated prospects.
The only Yankee players you named who’ve ever hit the top 100 were Sanchez (Peaked at #30 pre-season 2011, dropped out of the top 50 for midseason) and Betances (Peaked at #26 midseason). None of the others have ever cracked the top 100 with BA. Meanwhile, three of the guys he mentioned (Turner peaked at #11 on the midseason, Oliver was #87 in the pre-2011 ranking, Crosby peaked at #47 preseason in 2010).
A) The writer said ”
Garza would be worth a position player prospect in the #11-50 range or a couple of prospects from the back end of the top 100 in MLB”.
That would be Sanchez who was struggling PRIOR to the mid-season report but FINISHED strong in 2011 and should remain around top 50 (he was ranked at #4 on this year’s top 10). He had a great month of August hitting 7 home runs and a 1.647 OPS before breaking his finger on going on the DL in late August.
While the other three are non-top 100 guys, there’s more upside to them. One is mlb ready pitcher (Noesi pitched 50 innings last year w/ a 4.09 FIP mostly out the pen in the majors and had a sub 3.00 FIP in 150 IP in 2010 as a starter). He’s 25 and ready to go.
Adams is a 2b who has always posted great numbers but had a bad ankle injury hamper his 2010 and early 2011 season but came back strong. He has a lifetime .822 OPS and a .375 OBP.
Heathcott has had some shoulder issues but is an excellent defensive CF and a highly touted 1st rnd pick in ’09.
Oliver WAS a top 100 guy in 2011 (#87) and was probably rushed but had a poor 2011 with a 4.30 in AAA and a poor mlb showing in 2010/2011 (6.44 FIP in 10 starts). True, small sample size and I’m sure the results aren’t equal to his true talents. But he certainly won’t be a top 100 guy pre-2012 listings.
Cosby is in the same shoe box as Oliver. He WAS a top 50 in 2010 BUT fell out of the top 100 for 2011 and followed up a injury riddled season (only 12 innings pitched) with a poor 2011 (4.32 FIP and 5.26 BB/9 in 130 IP at AA).
So in those two, you have 2 former top 100 guys (one in 2010) who are trending downward and won’t be top 100 again without a great 2012 season.
In Brantly you have a 22 year old C who has never played above A+ with a .713 career OPS w/ 11 hrs in almost 700 AB. He also had an OPS of .561 in 166 AB at A+. SSS yes, but still. No power, low career OBP and avg at best contact hitter who hasn’t advanced past single A yet.
Paulino is VERY young (19 in Feb), looks VERY talented but has only pitched 5 innings above the GCL Rookie league. No idea what to expect from him. BA hasn’t listed Detroit’s top 10 yet. Sickles had Paulino as their 17th best with a C+.
So with the the package you called me out on:
Sanchez, Noesi, Heathcott and Adams I just think you have more of what the writer suggested in 2 up the middle position players, and guys who still have high prospect status in Sanchez, are trending upwards in Noesi or have been highly regarded but have slight health issues in 2011 but are still good prospects in Heathcott and Adams.
As for this package:
Betances + Mason Williams + Warren/Phelps
Bets is still going to be a top 40-75 guy. Mason has been ranked 5th by BA in their top 10 and Sickles ranks him aggressively w/ a B rating. Very good shot he debuts around top 80-100 in his 1st season. Warren is another MLB ready prospect with a #3 ceiling (3.60 ERA/4.09 FIP in 150 + IP @ AAA).
”
You think so? I see one really good prospect (top 10-15 probably) and 3 non-top 100 prospects”
“Gary Sanchez + Heathcott + Noesi + Adams”
In other words: one really good prospect (30 on BA) and three 3 non-top 100 prospects.
or
One really good prospect and two of three non top-100 rated prospects.
The only Yankee players you named who’ve ever hit the top 100 were Sanchez (Peaked at #30 pre-season 2011, dropped out of the top 50 for midseason) and Betances (Peaked at #26 midseason). None of the others have ever cracked the top 100 with BA. Meanwhile, three of the guys he mentioned (Turner peaked at #11 on the midseason, Oliver was #87 in the pre-2011 ranking, Crosby peaked at #47 preseason in 2010).
As a White Sox fan…….please do that deal!
Psh, and everyone thought Kenny’s asking price for Danks was ridiculously high….
Wait until you hear what he wants for Floyd. (Although I don’t think he will trade Floyd).
Has any team offered a position prospect in the No. 11-50 range or two prospects in “the back end of the Top 100”?
If they have, Jed Hoyer should have taken it by now. I find Garza rather over-rated. He IS NOT an ace.
True that Garza is not an ace, but he is better than Floyd.
Agreed.
Yeah I would like it if we could get Oswalt on a one year deal. Anybody with good pitching to trade are gonna ask for the same prospects which Cashman rightfully has said no to.
To me he’s an obvious one year fix.
Sabathia + Oswalt + Nova + Burnett + Hughes/Garcia would be a decent enough rotation with a good offense and bullpen.
Theo is banking pretty hard on teams believing that Garza’s K-rate spike is more than an NL-created mirage, rather than the evolution of his slider.
I think the improved stirkeouts can be traded against the hightened injury risk in throwing so many slidepieces.
The Cubs don’t have to trade Garza, nor are they approaching other teams. Teams are calling them. Supply and demand. The Cubs have something other teams want. They can meet the price or not. It’s only going to go up.
If there isn’t a team overpaying, I would definitely do what Sox did. Extend Garza, give him deal something like Danks’, 5/55 would be enough as he would only make 14-15m next 2 years. If Garza puts up similar number next year, which means FIP 2.95 with 200+ K, plus Hamels and Cain extend then Cubs can ask whole universe for 4 years of Garza. Given his K/9:8.95, BB/9:2.86, FIP:2.95, WAR:5.0, I would definitely do it instead giving him up less than what Cubs compensated to acquire him. It ain’t going to kill Cubs for extending him nor it’s not like they don’t have money to do so.
Halladay is a stud at age of 35, and Garza was only 27 this season. Halladay turned into solid pitcher at age of 25 and becomes cy-young caliber pitcher at age of 31. Instead giving him up for cheap price, it would be much better just to extend him and see how things go.
I don’t see the “extension” strategy working for two reasons:
(1) Your primary market (Jays Yanks & Red Sox) have a strong funnel of top pitching prospects. As time passes, they have less of a need for Garza and Danks.
(2) Jays primary interest in top extension candidates was based on getting compensation draft picks as the player reaches free agency and gets replaced by a pitching prospect graduating to the big leagues. The draft picks allow them to continue feed their prospect funnel. I suspect Yankees and Red Sox are in the same mode. It explains their “value” shopping.
There will be always great demands for top of the rotation pitchers. I don’t buy Red Sox has a strong funnel of top pitching prospects. Please don’t give me names like Ranaudo. Find about the very recent scouting reports on Red Sox farm. It is heavy on position players only. For Yanks, I wouldn’t be surprised 2B’s would fail miserably as their fellows, Joba and Hughes. Due to their walk rate and size concerns. Sickels recently commented that Banuelos is at best #3 and possible future for Betances is long man in bullpen.
You just compared Garza to Halladay……..think about that.
You compared Betances and Banuelos with likes of Nolan Ryan, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson in regard with those Yankee prospects’ scary walk rate/size concerns. I think comparing to that, Garza to Halladay makes much more sense. Anyway, it’s free to think Garza doesn’t worth more than Betances who has Daniel Cabrera written all over him then just forget about achieving him via trade and do some rosterbation getting King Felix via trade, heck, they would ask the whole universe with him and Yankee fans will scream once again. This is how the market goes. Supply and Demand. Yankee fans all day call for, say, Cubs must trade blah blah Mariners must trade blah blah well that stands, but not at that what’s called “fair market price.” They will extend or hold onto their core pitchers instead of giving them up for future bust prospects.
What’s so difficult? It ain’t like Theo is threatening teams to buy Garza. He publicly states so many freaking times that Garza could be core of the team and he’s willing to extend him. But he first wants to hear what other teams would offer and he would bite if there is a super lucrative deal on the table. If teams not interested, fine, then just get off. Instead giving bull craps why he is not worth this that and that prospects.
You’re so impossible to talk to. Get past what team I root for because I’m clearly not the only one that thinks Garza isn’t worth 3 top 50 prospects. And if you paid any f’n attention then Theo has made it clear what his intentions are. HE’S REBUILDING and Garza is his best asset. if you really think he’s going to extend Garza then good luck to you, but you are in for a shocker.
As for Bans/Bets vs Ryan, etc, I NEVER compared the ABILITIES just the precedent of young pitchers who had good stuff but control issues that they figured out fairly early in their mlb careers.
But of course, why would I expect a person like you to comprehend the point. You see key words and say “Oh I can make a name for myself by trying to disrespect a Yankee fan. Oh, I love to go blah, blah, blah about the Yankees”. How about this, YOU should start to assume that not every Yankee fan is a -SS and I’ll assume that not every Cubs fan is a *ick like you? Cool?
Also, the logic I offered isn’t limited to a “Yanks perspective” but to all interested teams. Why? Because it’s rooted in logic according to Garza’s circumstances.
BTW, what’s more absurd? Me proposing that Bans (1 year of poor control) or Bets (a 6’8) pitcher might improve on their control ala Ryan, Sabathia and the Unit or you insinuating that Garza might reach “elite ace” status late in his career?
“Halladay is a stud at age of 35, and Garza was only 27 this season. Halladay turned into solid pitcher at age of 25 and becomes cy-young caliber pitcher at age of 31”.
Not to say Garza doesn’t have talent, but he’s had 1 year of “ace” level performance and comparing him to Halladay is just bad logic.
You misunderstood the point also. I didn’t say Garza would be an elite ace like Halladay. I only wrote that it took years Halladay becomes stud and similar things could happen to Garza due to all kind of stats supporting the argument. 2011 Garza was not by luck. Not at same level as Doc, but Garza could be much better pitcher than he was years ago. It would make more sense than 2B’s can refine their command alas Ryan, Johnson, etc. At least Garza just had 1 year of ace-like year. What those 2B’s have done? To me, young pitcher who’s only 27 just finished ace year would develop to be better pitchers in future is better logic than prospects with command issues refine them and becomes stud pitcher in big league. Given to the facts only 1 out of 8 top100 pitchers survive in big league and the hardest thing for pitchers is to refine their command.
I don’t think Garza worths 3 top 50 prospects, but Cubs would ask for 2, if not centering around strong position prospect with good upside low level prospects. If only return they would get is package like Betances who just mentioned in BA chatting that good comparison is Daniel Cabrera plus Romine and other low level prospect then hell no. Theo would definitely extend him. He has leverage and he is not rushed in trading Garza.
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Should the Cubs look to extend Garza, they’ll have more leverage than their cross-town rivals did, since the extra year of control buys Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer time. Garza projects to earn a total of $20MM or more in the next two years and the Cubs may look to buy out an additional two seasons for $14-15MM apiece if they explore a deal. Perhaps a four-year, $52MM deal would work for both sides.
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“[Matt Garza is] exactly type of pitcher we want to build around” said Epstein according to Gordon Wittenmyer of The Chicago Sun-Times (on Twitter). He added that his current mode is “to listen on everybody.”
“We’re not rushing into anything with [Garza],” added Epstein according to Wittenmyer (on Twitter). They’re still weighing the right-hander’s trade value against a possible contract extension.
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a) Bans has never had control issues, and in fact was one of his strengths prior to reaching AA last year. My guess is he was trying to be too fine instead of trusting his stufff.
b) Bets is more of an issue because it’s been more of a career issue for him. Even still, his ranking takes into ACCOUNT his control problems and he would be a top 10 prospect without them. He still allows less than 7 hits per 9 and k’s more than 10 per 9.
c) I never said that IF they gained control they would be as good or better than Ryan, etc. I simply said control is something that some pitchers gain with maturity, especially for a guy like Bans who never had the issue before.
d) Of course Theo is going to say publicly that he would want to extend Garza. It maintains his leverage. No sense it letting it be known you aggressively wants to get rid of him. He wants to maintain the appearance of options.
So what did KW do? Did anyone think he would extend Danks? I’ve been all over KW extending Danks if only package he could receive is gamble prospect like Betances and he actually extended. I’m not saying Theo’s first option is to extend Garza, but if price range is nowhere closer to what Cubs FO thinking, it is better extend him. As I am high on Garza, I think you are also too optimistic with 2B’s. Of course command may come around with maturity but mostly it happens rarely. Banuelos may refine his command since his command wasn’t bad in 2010. But his command now is awful and it does hurt his current value to outsiders.
It is proven fact that most prospects with great stuff never make starters in big league as they cannot solve their command issues no matter how young they are. Of course there are pitchers who did improve but it’s not even 50/50. That being said, to me, Garza being stud following years and possibly repeating his awesome 2011 season has much more logic than prospects with current and/or career command issue puts everything together and refine their command.
I do agree all 3 of Montero and 2B’s are unrealistic as prospects value is much higher than what it was decades ago. Fair price for Cubs, not Yankees, would be Montero plus two low level prospects, both of Ban and Bet plus C prospect, or Ban plus some high ceiling low level prospects like Williams. Of course I do agree Yankees may find the price too steep and refuses to deal. That has good logic also for Yankee’s point of view.
My logic is if the offered package is not good enough, then it’s better to extend him and wait for better market condition. Garza has had 5 consecutive seasons with ~200 innings and he is not injury prone. If injury does not hold him back, once he repeat his numbers in 2012 then his possible trading value would be sky high, at least as much as National’s package for Gio. I am not the only person who thinks Cole, Peacock worth more, if not, as much as 2B’s and A’s also received solid catching prospect who would make top 100 plus low ceiling pitching prospect ready to contribute in big league right now.
DIdnt you once say casey kelly was a yankee prospect? why should could i care about what you have to say about prospects? Betances has nothing in common with cabbrerra absoluty zzero scouts would say that.
i wouldnt want montero anyways
I can’t believe the Yankees preferred Gio to Garza.
Why, he’s cheaper, they have to be budget conscious now since they’ve reached the luxury tax limit, he’s left-handed, left-handed pitchers are always preferred with that short right field porch at Yankee stadium, and he has 4 years while Garza only has two years. Not all that surprising to me.
Gio- 5.79 ERa vs Red Sox, 0 post season games
Garza- 3.83 vs Red Sox, 5 games post season with a 3.48 era
I thought the Yankees were always in win mode? Garza is the clear choice to win now.
I don’t buy the Yankees being out. Garza has proven success in the AL East and is dominant against the Red Sox. I can’t imagine a more perfect fit for the Yankees number 2. They’ll cave and the Cubs will get either 2 of the 3 top prospects or they’ll take 1 plus a larger overall package. I don’t see a better match and the yanks are desperate for a solid number 2. No better fit for either team. If I’m the Cubs i try to get Gardner plus a top pitching prospect if the yanks don’t want to give up Montero.
Garza is a good pitcher but let’s not distort reality. His proven success equals a 4.25 FIP from 2008-2010 in the AL East. Also, his career ERA (don’t have access to FIP vs Sox) is 3.84. That’s good but doesn’t scream dominant. Oh….and in 2010 in 6 starts (1 relief) and 35 IP he had a 5.14 ERA.
History has also shown (hopefully) that you can NOT acquire pitchers based on how they dominate YOU or your biggest opponent. AJ Burnett is the best example of that.
Simply put, you can NOT assume that Garza’s 2011 is going to be the norm going forward. It would be risky to assume that and giving up 2 or 3 of Montero, Bans and Bets can be a huge mistake. If the Yanks felt motivated to move all 3 my guess is they would’ve done so for Latos with Montero being sent elsewhere for something else they could use.
Bans + Bets + Mason + Noesi probably would’ve got them Latos imo.
The Yanks perhaps did prefer Gio to Garza. Latos and Gio are younger than Garza and under contract for a longer period. Garza pitched quite well in the A.L. East. Walks less batters than Gio and has a no hitter and playoff experience under his belt. Latos and Gio pitched in more pitcher friendly parks. Based on this, Garza should command a return very much like the other 2. The Cubs aren’t going to contend this year for sure. Probably not next year either. They have chopped 50+ mil off the payroll from the beginning of the 2011 season. They wil drop another 40+ after this season. Balance that with F.A. signings and possible trades(Garza, Byrd, and Marmol) and they should have quite a few dollars to spend on rebuilding. I don’t expect immediate results obviously but i think they are headed in the right direction.