As the 2011-12 offseason concludes, next winter's market becomes easier to anticipate, since team needs are clearer and the 2012-13 free agent list is taking shape. The Nationals agreed to terms with Edwin Jackson on a one-year deal yesterday and Roy Oswalt is expected to sign a one-year deal of his own before long, so both right-handers will likely reappear on the free agent market a year from now.
Four All-Star caliber starters are projected to join them: left-hander Cole Hamels and right-handers Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Anibal Sanchez. Jackson, Hamels, Greinke, Cain and Sanchez each contributed at least 3.8 wins above replacement in 2011 and they're all 27 or 28 years old. If they continue pitching at an All-Star level in 2012, they'll be candidates for substantial long-term deals in free agency.
Ryan Dempster, Jeremy Guthrie, Hiroki Kuroda, Colby Lewis, Shaun Marcum, Jonathan Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy and others add depth to the projected free agent market. Some of those pitchers could position themselves for multiyear deals with strong seasons, while others will end up signing one-year contracts.
Keep in mind that this isn't a final look at the starting pitching market. Last year four starters signed extensions between the beginning of February and the end of April, as MLBTR's Exension Tracker shows. Some of the starters listed above will likely sign multiyear deals and weaken the projected 2013 free agent class in the process.
you can say non of them will be Mets.
Royals need to get at least one of these guys and trade for another if they can/need to. Either way, they need to sign one of the top 5 pitchers on the market.
Are Montgomery & Odorizzi gonna be up by Spring Training of ’13? If so then a 1-2-3 of Montgomery, (any of the names in the article) & Odorizzi seems like a good one, am I right?
I’d love to see Marcum back in a Jays uni…
The 3 big-name pitchers will probably be back with their current clubs or sign with big-market teams.
Something tells me the Yankees will be very active next year.
Maybe , but they have a lot of MLB pitching in their system and are trying to get under the luxury tax threshold . Even they don’t have un-limited dollars to spend and they are focused on building ( Not buying ) championship teams . Contrary to what most others write about them.
They may be interested in Cain or Hamels but the others would serve no purpose . So baring anything un-expected like a major injury , I see the Yankees extending Canoe and replacing their aging core , not going on a shopping spree.
I could see the Nationals spending big , they have worked hard to become contenders and are going to work hard to stay contenders . The new owner of the Dodgers will be a Billionaire looking to improve their club. So I expect big bucks out of LA and DC but NY will be quietly at work. Oblivious to their critics .
Let’s see, my Cardinals will have 2 rotation spots open, one of which will probably go to top prospect Shelby Miller, a bunch of money available to spend, and just one more year on the contracts of both Wainwright and Carpenter, so I see us going after a multi-year deal with a second tier free agent starter next offseason. Too bad Buerhle won’t be available then.
What does the new CBA mean for the big 4? Assuming each pitches well and they are offered arbitration, would a team signing them have to give up a draft pick?
If they’re offered arbitration and decline, the signing team will have to give up a draft pick, but that’s now a big if. They’ll have to be offered a minimum of around $12-13M.