The Phillies signed Cole Hamels to a historic six-year, $144MM extension this morning. After weeks of rumors, it’s now apparent that Hamels will stay put, but his teammates don’t all enjoy the same security. Here’s the latest on the Phillies…
- The Yankees considered pursuing Ty Wigginton, but the Phillies aren't offering him up, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter).
- An American League executive suggested the Phillies' deal with Hamels means Cliff Lee and Hunter Pence are available, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (on Twitter).
- The Phillies have reached out to "dangle" Jimmy Rollins to other teams in the last two weeks, ESPN.com's Buster Olney reports (on Twitter). The A's have considered Rollins, but he's not currently an option for them.
- Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is waiting to determine whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (Twitter link).
- Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com isn't convinced the Phillies will go into complete sell mode (Twitter link).
What do the Phillies want for Pence? what does his contract look like?
1 year of arbitration left – he’ll get $10M+
Next year he’ll get about 14-15 million. They’d need a top 50 prospect to start with. Prob an outfielder that is ready like Marte or a ready 3B.
How about a Chase Headley straight up deal for Pence? still trying to figure out where he might be delt, Pads need a OF but likely not going to pay someone that much ever lol
I’d do that in a second.
Kinda the same guy both hitting .268, little bit of speed, good defense at their positions, decent power (8 of 11 Headley’s bombs on the road).
When you factor in how Headley’s numbers have been totally suppressed by his home ballpark, and Pence’s have been inflated somewhat by his, I think Headly is the more valuable player. He’s definitely the cheaper player. If I’m San Diego I don’t do that deal.
That would be the worst deal of the year. Pence is having an off year because of all the stress that’s been put on the team because of the injuries.
Pence has more power, and is a better hitter any day of the week. I am confident that Pence will start hitting better now. Why would we downgrade?
Because corner OFs are much easier to find then 3B.
I think the reason they don’t do the deal is because they are rebuilding and want prospects, not players that have 1 year left of control. Headley has more value solely because he plays a position that more teams need. RF is incredibly easy to fill for most teams, they don’t give up a big haul.
Where do I (Phillies) sign?
rather take my chances with dom brown, worst case would have pierre/mayberry/victorino.
If we get a ready to play player I’d rather have a 3B
That is a very bad scenario. John Mayberry Jr. isn’t a Major League Baseball Caliber player.
As a Phillies phan: Amaro, “determining whether to buy or sell”, are you kidding me?
I don’t agree. Especially as a “fan”, you gotta keep hope alive. Is it a long shot? Sure is…but the Cards did it with less time.
09/02/11 the Cards were 9 games back of the wild card. Odds of them coming back were very low…
BUT
07/25/12 the Phils are 9.5 games back of the wild card. They got more than a month extra to do it.
Now you may say…”Seriously, you think they got a shot” to which I would reply, “You would if it were your team”.
I’m under no obligation to be ignorantly optimistic just because I’m a fan of a team. The more worthwhile perspective is to be smart in your allegiance. It is smarter to trade Victorino, Polanco, Blanton, Rollins, and maybe Pence this year to retool and acquire younger players who can actually help in future years. Except for Pence, none of those guys will be helping us in the future.
When you are 10 games out of a 1 game playoff for the wildcard, think that you should plan for the future. This year is a wash.
The comparison between the number of games isn’t as relevant as the number of teams between them and that W.C. spot. They aren’t just chasing the Braves, they also have to jump the Mets, Miami, Pittsburgh, Cards, Dodgers and D’Backs! They need to play .700 baseball… which is unlikely with this bullpen!
I would assume you can take the Mets and Marlins off this list
Did Cliff Lee not get a full trade clause?
Phillies give out limited clauses to 21 teams only.
And Texas isn’t on that list…
Correct
I think I read recently where he can reject only 8 teams.
looks like you were wrong about Cole jumping ship …
Now is when you sell, Ruben. Sell.
Come on Buccos, let’s go get Pence this year. We wanted him last summer, now we can may be able to get him for a cheaper package. He’s a gamer who will fit in perfect with the cardiac Buccos!
Marte and Locke? I’d love Hanson but they won’t deal him.
I’m not sure how high the Pirates would be on moving Locke after they just traded Owens. However, if the Phils were willing to pick up a good chunk of Pence’s contract, it could happen.
I have a fairly irrational hatred of Hunter Pence, but he’d fit very well with the bucs.
for god’s sake they are not trading Cliff Lee with Halladay playing like garbage
Lee is pitching horrible, Doc is just coming off an injury
I sincerely think that the GM has not given up on this season — and the fact that they have done pretty well since the ASB may have restored faith that they can get the job done. Teams have come back from worse deficits, but the fact remains that unless the Nats implode, they’ve got a big fight for the wild card. Good news is that a few of their competitors are in sell-mode, and they’ve been pulling themselves back into the race. The bad news is that the teams they’ve been facing recently have been imploding themselves, so it’s not exactly a sign of good things to come. It’s a really tough call to make, as I see it, but I am thinking that they’re concerned about ticket revenue and don’t want to be sellers if they have a remote chance.
Phillies are down 15 games in the division and 12 games in the Wild Card (in the loss column) and Ruben is unsure whether he should buy or sell because the Phillies beat the Brewers twice? FML
you forgot to mention that the Phillies play the Braves 9 more games this season.
Yeah, that would be nice if the Phillies were actually any good and if they were down 12 games to the Braves, but they’re down 12 games to the Pirates who actually have prospects to buy at the deadline unlike the Phillies and their barren minor league system.
There’s 2 wild card spots, you do realize that right? They just have to beat out the Braves as of right now
And the Dodgers who got vastly better already at the deadline and 5 other teams, including the Mets who have killed Philly all year are ahead of them.
How did they get vastly better? We already faced Hanley enough and he has barely done anything this year?
They killed a Phillies team without their superstars… good for them. The Dodgers got “vastly” better and the Phillies did to by getting Halladay, Utley, and Howard back.
NOw way the pirates trade marte for Pence. The only way Marte gets moved is if it were for a player that is under team control for 2 or 3 seasons.
Casey Mecghee, meek and tabata is what i would offer to philly. Cost controled RF and a 3rd basemen plus a former all starter set up man.
They want prospects not the Pirates left overs
no they want cheap major league players. they have to stay under 200 mill and have 90 mill in 4 players. If people think there gonna get prospects for him that dont understand how bad of a finiancal screw job philly put themselves in. If they dont trade vicitorino and Pence and both of those players take arbritration thats close 25 mill for 2 more players so simple math 115 mill for 6 players.
No you clearly don’t understand the situation that the Phillies are in. Their payroll is not as small as your Pirates therefore they can go above the luxury tax and are prepared to do so in order to fill their holes. They have a massive TV deal in the coming years that may be worth more than the one the Angels recieved which allowed them to spend 300 million this offseason. They will not do a trade for either Pence or Victorino for the trash that you named. Please just stop with this nonsense. For Pence you will give up good, promising prospects and for Victorino you will give up a good reliever and other prospects. If not, then the Pirates won’t get either and the Phillies probably do a trade with the Dodgers.
None of those guys are interesting whatsoever.
Marte is completely blocked and essentially useless outside of a trade chip, and he is a good chip to get someone like Pence, who isn’t a rental btw. I’ll give you Polanco or Blanton for the slop you mentioned though.
How is Marte blocked? The almighty Alex Presley or the Jones/McGahee are too much to overcome?
I agree he may be best used as a trade chip but I’d use him for someone very good who can fill a need for more than one season. Pence is a possibility but I wouldn’t do it because he will be very expensive next year even though he still has a year of control.
wow, just wow.
McGehee is literaly the same exact person as Ty Wigginton except not as good. Tabata would be a fit for them maybe but his stock has been down for 2 years now and Meek is just atrocious.
I’m sure if they offered up Grilli or Lincoln as a centerpiece of a deal they can get Pence or Victorino but not sure I want to mess with how well the pen is working right now for a player who may not give you much more than Marte would.
Grilli? The Phillies had him before and relievers will only get you Victorino, Amaro actually wants some legit prospects for Pence
Amaro wants prospects? I’ll believe that when I see it. From what I can tell, he’s simply a fool with money. Already spent a crapload on a closer who only comes in when they are winning, I don’t think it’s out of the question that a light’s out reliever (Lincoln or Grilli) would be the centerpiece of a deal for Pence.
Okay and I’m saying a centerpiece for Pence will not be a reliever, Victorino yes, he even asked for Lincoln for Victorino, but Pence no, if the Pirates want him they will have to give up some good prospects. If not then Pence stays the Phillies try to make a run and offer Pence arb. for next year when everyon is healthy.
maybe pirates will do a blockbuster. victorino, rollins, and pence lol doubt it but could see us getting victorino or pence.
So could I, or maybe even Pierre. I’m not giving up the ranch for any of them except Pence, and even then, no Cole/Taillon/Heredia, and Marte only if you have to.
For some reason my replies keep disappearing.
Phils are 9.5 games back, but it’s not even August yet. The Phils also have to play the team holding on to their ticket 9 more times this season.
If only the Cards could have had the luxury of all that last year…they may have just gotten in. And maybe, just maybe…they could have won the W.S.
But it is highly unlikely. You don’t become buyers at 10 games out. There are only 7 teams with records worse than the Phillies in all f baseball. So should the other 22 teams be buyer because they have a shot of a insane run that happens 1% of time.
It’s not that they’re buyers, I think they’re trying to fix their weaknesses going forward. It’s retooling. They’re probably going to do both.
Let’s say they trade for Chase Headley, for example. That’s a move designed for 2013.
If they trade Victorino, it’s for controllable bullpen help. The bullpen’s been the biggest weakness this year and has been for years (besides the 2nd half of ’10 and first half of ’11).
J-Roll isn’t going anywhere.
Lee is due just south of $29M/y over the next 3y die to the back end-loaded contract. Few teams are willing to pay that.
Lee doesn’t have a back end loaded contract. It’s 25m per year. You probably saw somewhere that he is due 87.5 over the next 3. That 87.5 includes a 12.5m buyout in 2016. 25m in ’13, 25m in ’14, 25m in ’15. 27.5m in ’16 or a 12.5m buyout
Hmm, 24M for a pitcher who has never won more than 15 games, only had a sub 3.00 once in his career in the NL, has only one 200 K season, appears to be a complete tool in his interviews and will never be a HOF. Seams reasonable. I wonder what a real ace and not a #2 posing as an ace goes for.
Well he must only be posing in your opinion since every MLB club views him as an ace
I’m not going to argue with a bias Phillies fan but I know if Hamels is my ace I wouldn’t like my chances but if he was my #2, I’d be ok with that. Personally, I would have rather signed Cj Wilson, traded Hamels and saved myself 10M/yr. I think that Wilson is better than Hamels straight up and would have been much cheaper. He’s posted win totals equaling Hamels highest in his only 2 yrs starting, pitched to a lower ERA in a friendlier park, in the AL and has less innings on his arm.
WAR…Hamels (25.4) > Wilson (16.4)
ERA…Hamels (3.38) > Wilson (3.49)
K/9…Hamels (8.49) > Wilson (7.99)
BB/9…Hamels (2.26) > Wilson (3.78)
BABIP…Hamels (.280) > Wilson (.283)
FIP…Hamels (3.62) > Wilson (3.66)
xFIP…Hamels (3.40) > Wilson (3.82)
Those are their career stats. Bias? I don’t think so. I understand Wilson used to be in the bullpen but that just makes Hamels look even better. Hamels is clearly better than Wilson. Oh and let’s not forget these stats.
Post Season
ERA…Hamels (3.20) > Wilson (4.82)
K/9…Hamels (8.49) > Wilson (7.39)
BB/9…Hamels (2.31) > Wilson (4.99)
BABIP…Hamels (.263) Wilson (5.78)
xFIP…Hamels (3.31) > Wilson (4.57)
World Series Titles…Hamels (1) > Wilson (0)
World Series MVP…Hamels (1) > Wilson (0)
Friendlier park? Okay but that’s weak since Hamels also plays in a park known as a bandbox. Wilson’s wins are helped by the potent offenses that he has playin behind him. Less innings on the arm? True but Hamels is 3 years younger…
Yes, friendlier park and with a DH he still posted an ERA under 3.00. And I don’t want to hear about win totals being inflated by a potent offense coming from a Phillies fan. He had more than his fair share of loaded offenses and the best win total he could manage was 15? Come on. I could probably name 10 Lefties that are better or arguably equal to Hamels. Not to mention the 10M you could have saved could have been used on a decent player. I’m a Tigers fan and have no east coast (live in AZ, so i see east and west coast teams) or Wilson bias unlike yourself, just giving a outside perspective. But hey if you like your teams to be handcuffed by second tier players than so be it. Too bad we probably won’t revisit this in the future to analyze the outcome. But good luck to your Phils
That ast post wasn’t biased at all, it was career stats that showed how Hamels is better than Wilson and is 3 years younger. It just seems that you’re to ignorant to just look at the stats and see that Hamels is better. Oh and it seems that Hamels will most likely eclipse that career high in wins this year since he already has 11. Also please list 10 lefties that are better than Hamels statistacally because I would love to see that. Here’s two Sabathia and Lee, now all you need is 8, remember it must be based on stats.
Yes because that last post was biased. Come on. How about you make that list of those 10 lefties but it has to be able to be backed up on paper since Wilson is clearly not better than Hamels as the stats show above. Here’s two…Sabathia and Lee, now just find those 8 but you have to have the stats to back you up or it’s just irrelevant. Oh and you must know about handcuffing contracts I suppose with that massive deal to Fielder right?
Name a pitcher who has accumulated more WAR in the past 6 seasons who isn’t paid in the shade.
Sorry but WAR is a highly overrated saber metric stat. While Hamels is a legit #2 with ace potential he is not the second coming of Steve Carlton I am sorry.
it doesn’t matter that you think he’s x or isn’t as good as player y if you don’t have evidence
don’t like WAR? neat. propose an alternative. your conclusions are meaningless and boring without data
No one said he was but I didn’t know a legit #2 could lead a club to the World Series and then become WS MVP. He must be the greatest #2 of all time or we can just say he’s an ace.
He’s going to finish his career right behind Steve Carlton in a number of the Phillies franchise records. He’s about 5 seasons away from being the #2 all time strikeout leader.
So he’s not one of the top pitchers in baseball history? Amazing.
Say the Phillies trade Pence. Victorino’s gone whether or not they trade him; he’s a free agent. What does the Phillies outfield look like next year?
Brown, Mayberry, I think Nix has one more year, and they’ll have to sign or trade for a CF and based on the year Pierre is having unless they trade him I cansee them bringing him back for some speed off the bench
I don’t Mayberry on the team next year, let alone in my starting outfield. The guy’s had one good half a season…
I was just listing the outfielders that the Phillies have now who could still be there at the start of the next season
Ah, my mistake. The Markets loaded with outfielders and corner outfielders are very easy to find, so I’m not worried if they trade Pence… especially if they get value back.
Personally, I hope they make a run at Michael Bourn. Getting him would finally remove Charlie’s tired excuse of not having a leadoff hitter better than Jimmy Rollins. Jimmy’d be a much better player in the 6th/7th spot in the line up.
I was thinking the same thing, how much do you think the Phillies can offer him?
I’m not honestly sure. I know they’re going to have to go over the luxury tax next year if they’re going to put a club out there that can compete with Washington and Atlanta.
Do you think a deal like 4/50 would get it done? He’d be 33/34 when it ends and keeps that veteran leadership if the Phillies do trade Pence
The best part about this is that the Phillies are in last place. They paid WAY too much for Hamels.
WAY too much? So your saying that the bidding war over the only elite level left-handed starter on the market that would have gone down between the Angels, Dodgers, and Rangers wouldn’t have exceeded 6/144? I think it would have but it doesn’t really matter now anyway
Elite as in an elite #2, yes. I think he would have gotten somewhere near 6/144 as a free agent, and that any team that pays that much is overpaying. If Matt Cain is worth 6/127.5, then Hamels is worth 6/110.
Could someone explain to me why the Phils would be willing to trade Rollins, Pence or Victorino… but not Wigginton??? That makes zero sense, unless it’s totally about how much salary they can dump.
Maybe Polanco will be traded, I was thinking the same thing
Its actually because polanco is hurt now and supposedly they arebt sure if hell even be able to.come back. so the only other option they have now at third base is wiggington. So they cant trade him… Cant just put anyone there. They’re still trying to win games…
Is Polanco done for the season? Last time I saw he had an MRI but I didn’t see the results
Mike Fontenot disagrees…and he actually knows how to play 3B….unlike Wigginton who is possibly the worst 3B in the history of organized baseball.
I understand wanting to keep Hamels, but are you kidding me? The Phillies have a few holes and when you have approx. $80million per season tied up in 2 starting pitchers, closer, and a 1st baseman, what are you doing? You are hamstringing yourself. The Phillies may have a high payroll, but they are not the Yankees. I believe Philly would be much better off selling Hamels for pieces for the future. They’ve dealt away a majority of their top prospects in recent years and their minor league system isn’t so strong with guys waiting to jump right in and be an everyday contributor. I think Hamels is a TOR pitcher, but this contract is a mistake for the franchise in the position they are in.
What would it take for the Dodgers to get Pence?