Steve Adams
- Greetings all! Bit of an impromptu chat this week since my schedule didn’t really allow for one on Tuesday
Guards Nation
- If the guardians lose Clase and Ortiz, will they free up payroll and if they do, can you envision them using the space to go out and get a high level bat or arm?
Steve Adams
- Ortiz isn’t on a guaranteed contract, so there wouldn’t be any payroll savings. Clase’s contract had a pretty modest $6MM guarantee in 2026. They’d be spared that $6MM and the $2MM buyout on his 2027 option, which counts as guaranteed money).
That’s all if they’re suspended/banned, of course, and we have no good way of knowing that yet. Regardless, an extra $6-8MM of payroll space next year isn’t going to give them any sort of substantial savings or embolden them to sign a big-name free agent.
In general, if you’re hoping for Cleveland to sign marquee free agents, you’re probably setting yourself up for a disappointment. Not trying to sound insulting by any means — that’s just reality.
Kevin
- Chances that Kim will rework deal with Braves to add on one or two more years?
Steve Adams
- I don’t see why he’d sign a one-year extension when his value is at a low point. I expect him to just play out the 2026 season as Atlanta’s everyday shortstop and try again. He’d hit the market ahead of his age-31 season, which is still young enough to land a nice multi-year deal (4-5 years) if he can bounce back in ’26
Wyatt Torregas
- The Pirates outlook discussed on this week’s podcast was bleak. Any chance of them going after Mullins or Grisham or will they have to settle for guys like Lane Thomas and Harrison Bader?
Steve Adams
- Honestly, I’d be surprised if they even signed Bader, who I think has earned himself at least a two-year deal. Lane Thomas, Max Kepler, Chas McCormick, etc. all feel more plausible.
I do think it was perhaps encouraging that Ben Cherington told Darragh McDonald on our podcast the week prior that there’s some urgency, but I don’t envision Bob Nutting green-lighting the type of three- or four-year deal it might take to get Grisham. If Mullins is amenable to a pillow deal or a two-year deal under $30MM, I guess I can kind of see it, but I don’t find that likely.
- Bucs should be looking at guys with more offensive ceiling than Bader, Thomas, Kepler, etc. anyhow. If they’re going to keep rolling on the one-year deal track, I’d say roll the dice on a Conforto rebound — but I think they should just be amenable to trading some pitching for controllable young hitters.
Dan
- The starters for the Jays playoff rotation are….
Steve Adams
- Bieber, Gausman, Scherzer — health-permitting
Reds GM
- Who are some notable non tender candidates this winter? Garcia, Stephenson, India?
Steve Adams
- Assuming that’s Luis Garcia in D.C., yeah, all three of them are NT candidates. Ryan Mountcastle, Trevor Larnach, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim all come to mind as well.
ChiSoxFan
- Is the White Sox offense pretty set for next season? I can only see them adding a fourth outfielder.
Steve Adams
- There’s enough uncertainty with Mead, Vargas, Meidroth and Montgomery that I think they ought to be pretty open to bringing in an infielder. I like Mike Tauchman, but I wouldn’t count on him as a regular in the OF, and you’ve got plenty of injury concern with Robert, so I think adding a semi-regular OF makes good sense as well.
One of the Achilles heels of the White Sox, even before their young core fell apart, was that there was never any depth beyond the starting group. And once all those guys got hurt (seemingly every year), the lineup was a trainwreck.
John
- Did the Orioles find a gem in Jeremiah Jackson? 2nd round pick in 2018, but he looks like he’s part of this teams future.
Steve Adams
- I don’t think he’s a regular, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a decent piece of the bench. He can play multiple spots and has average-ish speed, and the contact skills are solid enough it seems. But he’s too free a swinger, doesn’t walk much and is only sitting on his current rate stats because nearly 40% of his balls in play have turned into hits (.395 BABIP). That’s not going to be sustainable, particularly not with a 52% ground-ball rate.
So… maybe some of both? I’d lean more toward him being an up-and-down bench/depth guy, but there’s value to that, and the cost of acquisition was … well. Nothing. He signed a minor league deal. That’s a nice pickup.
John
- Thoughts on Framber and his upcoming free agency?
Steve Adams
- I understand that the cross-up is weighing heavily on the minds of Astros fans, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. Even if it was intentional — or if it was accidental and he just didn’t care — he’s the most consistent and arguably most talented starter on the market.
Manny Machado got $300MM after publicly declaring “I’m not Johnny Hustle” when asked why he didn’t run out a grounder in the postseason and when he appeared to deliberately spike Jesus Aguilar.
The top guys get paid. Framber is a legitimate No. 1/2 arm.
- That’s “No. 1 or No.2 arm” … not “half an arm” haha
Jeff F
- Who are you thinking of in terms of a sneaky good add for #4 or #5 free agent starter during the off season?
Steve Adams
- I don’t know if Zach Eflin is “sneaky,” but he’s better than a fourth starter when healthy and his price will be down coming off all the injuries. Griffin Canning looked pretty darn good in Queens before his injury.
Jays fan
- Prediction on contract for Bo Bichette this offseason? Do you think he stays at SS for any new team, or move to 2B or 3B to open up more options for signing?
Steve Adams
- There aren’t a ton of SS-needy teams I see that’ll be willing to spend the ~$200MM+ contract Bichette is hitting his way into, but injuries, trades, other circumstances could change that. I think Bichette would be wise to do what Willy Adames did straightaway last winter — broadcast a willingness to play other positions even if his heart is set on shortstop. The Giants were one of the only clear SS options for Adames, but he probably helped his market by building some interest as a 2B/3B option elsewhere.
Re-signing in Toronto is of course a possibility, and I could see the Tigers, Phillies, Yankees and a few others in the mix, especially if he’s marketing himself as a guy who’ll play anywhere.
Greg Allen Craig
- Where is Justin Verlander going to pitch in 2026 since he says that he plans to?
Steve Adams
- There will be plenty of teams willing to give Verlander a one-year deal. Still sitting 94 mph. 4.29 ERA/4.37 SIERA. K% only a tick below average, good command, average swinging-strike rate.
- There’s no real way to predict where that’ll be, but I think any contender with a short-term need in the rotation could work. Return to SF or else the Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Rangers, Cubs … Verlander for a year and $12MM or so ought to intrigue plenty of clubs
Taeko
- Can we say SF definitely won the Devers trade at this point? Hicks is barely serviceable for Bosox, Tibbs III was flipped to the Dodgers for nearly nothing, and Harrison is only just starting at the majors in September after struggling more at AAA. Meanwhile Devers has finally settled down and has been racking for SF and has provided a much needed power bat in a lineup that was struggling for runs. Was the clubhouse toxicity that bad in Boston?
Steve Adams
- I don’t think we need to assign a winner/loser, and I don’t think we can until we see how Harrison pans out or what they do with the cost savings.
I didn’t like Boston’s return at all, and I like it less now that they traded Tibbs for two months of Dustin May, which was one of the biggest head-scratchers of the deadline.
But they control Harrison for another half decade. It’s totally feasible that he develops into a consistent rotation option for him, and they reallocate a chunk of that Devers money to a long-term deal for another player.
There’s a huge obsession among fans with winning/losing trades, but the calculus as to who “won” or “lost” changes wildly from year to year or even month to month.
- Ask an Orioles fan from May who “won” Stowers/Norby for Trevor Rogers, and then ask them three months later, when Rogers has a 1.30 ERA in 15 MLB starts.
Dan
- Ranger Suarez is not an ace, has a history of back problems and tends to fade in the second half. Still, despite the low velocity he avoids hard contact and has consistently had #2 starter results when healthy.
Steve Adams
- I agree with all of this and think someone will give him $100MM as a result of it.
Tony B
- Would a new power bat or new coaching staff benefit the Giants more?
Steve Adams
- Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette (2B) helps more than a new coach(es)
A fan
- Do you expect Chaim Bloom to blow things up in STL or mostly stay the course that Mozeliak has laid out for him? Is a mini overhaul on the horizon?
Steve Adams
- I think there’s a good chance they move on from some of the Mozeliak-era prospects who’ve yet to really pan out. Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, etc.
Winn/Wetherholt is a pair to build around. Liberatore and McGreevy will get rotation looks next year. But I imagine they’ll try to trade Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado again.
In general, I think there’ll be a fair bit of turnover on next year’s roster. I find the whole slow rollout a bit confounding. If you want Bloom to take over, let him take over. But based on reporting and asking people closer to the situation, it seems like Mozeliak has retained all final say on baseball ops and roster decisions while Bloom has been focused on overhauling the player development department. It just feels a little clumsy, though I’m certainly sensitive to the fact that overhauling an entire player dev operation and managing the day-to-day of a whole organization from the very top seat is a lot (too much) to ask of one guy.
- I don’t see why they didn’t just name Bloom an AGM or SVP or whatever, then announce the role changes after the season, but maybe that’d just have entailed the exact same setup with less transparency.
At any rate, weird year for the Cardinals
Kyle Tucker
- Will the Red Sox be a favorite to land me with all that left over Devers money? Would you rather have Devers or Tucker next year if you’re the Sox?
- Who gets me next year?
Steve Adams
- Pitching and third base will (or should) be a bigger focus. They can run with Duran/Rafaela/Anthony in the outfield for the foreseeable future.
- I’ll probably be wrong about who signs Tucker when I make my final pick in our free agent contest, but if I’m forced to make a pick right now, the Giants get my bet.
Captain Dunsel
- The Phillies signed Walker Buehler to a minor league contract after he was released by the Red Sox. Does that minor league deal provide the Red Sox with any salary relief or does he need to be called up first? Thanks.
Steve Adams
- The Phillies only owe Buehler the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the MLB roster. If he gets called up, that prorated minimum salary will be subtracted from what Boston owes. Otherwise, the Sox are on the hook for everything
- Negligible, if any, savings.
Boomington
- Why have the Dodgers not played up to expectation? Lackluster bullpen?
Steve Adams
- I’d argue that it’s because expectations were comically high and unrealistic to begin with.
- During spring training, when so many fans had Dodger fatigue, I recall many participants in these chats assuming 110 wins was a lock. One literally said the league needed a salary cap because as presently constructed, the Dodgers wouldn’t lose three games in a row at any point this season.
- They made a bunch of big moves, yes. They have a great core, yes. They also have a ton of injury risk on the roster — some by design, since they can afford to have a huge margin for error in that regard — and are inherently subject to the randomness of baseball
Mavis staples
- How much will Kyle schwarber get and how will the Phillies handle free agency this offseason?
Steve Adams
- I’ve come around on him getting four years and $120-130MM, and I don’t think like 5/140 is even off the table. Elite offensive production, consistently so, and every team is in love with the person/teammate/leader.
SilverSlugs
- What do you think of the Braves picking up Kim and Fraley? Seems smart. You now have SS and the 4th outfielder covered next year. Now all AA has to do is focus on the bullpen and potentially the starting rotation
Steve Adams
- In a vacuum, either is fine. I find Anthopoulos’ repeated efforts to plug holes on his roster by just taking on bad money from other teams interesting, though. He ate the entire Raisel Iglesias contract (which worked). He took on all of Jorge Soler’s deal (oops, but the Angels helped out there). He took on all of Mark Melancon several years ago. He paid $30MM+ to buy Jarred Kelenic from Seattle (oops).
I don’t think it’s inherently bad, to be clear, but no other GM/president of baseball operations navigates like this.
I wouldn’t necessarily assume Fraley is tendered a contract, but I don’t mind the move either way.
Guest
- It seems like CES is forgotten man in Cincinnati. Is there still room for him on that roster?
Steve Adams
- I’ve never been a big CES guy. Power-over-hit with minimal defensive value and sub-par walk rates who’s on the short side of a 1B platoon. He still has options left and is only 25, so they’ll probably hang onto him through the offseason, but I’m not bullish on the long-term outlook, whether it be in Cincinnati or elsewhere.
Mr Met
- Who was your favorite player when you were a kid?
Steve Adams
- I was born in the mid-80s and grew up in Minnesota, so Kent Hrbek, Kirby Puckett and — because of course — Ken Griffey Jr.
Dad’s side of the family is from Chicago so I always enjoyed Ryne Sandberg, Shawon Dunston and Andre Dawson.
And Chipper and Andruw a bit later. Jim Thome, too.
I guess I had quite a few, haha.
Skenes
- Would you trade Paul Skenes for Nick Kurtz?
Steve Adams
- Nope
Guest
- Will the Mariners make the postseason?
Steve Adams
- I still think so yeah
RookTaker23
- Is Schwarber a lock to sign the largest contract of anyone who was once non-tendered?
Steve Adams
- Not even a lock to sign the biggest contract of a former NT’ed player this offseason! Bellinger should finally get a nice long-term deal. I’d probably take Schwarber to get the larger deal, but not by much. And if you told me right now Bellinger gets like 5/135 and Schwarber 4/126, I wouldn’t really bat an eye.
Darragh McDonald
- Carlos Rodon was non-tendered and got 162MM.
Steve Adams
- Darragh from the top rope
- And I checked, and yes, that was actually him — not someone just using his name haha
Yankee Pinstripes or Dodger Blue
- Munetaka Murakami?
Steve Adams
- Can I choose neither? I can see both having interest, but neither has a massive corner infield need. Muncy has a cheap option, plus the Dodgers have Freeland. The Yankees traded for McMahon and have Rice for 1B.
- Padres, Mariners, Red Sox… can never rule out a surprise team on a 25-year-old with 80 power, even if they don’t have a history of spending heavy in the NPB market (or in free agency in general)
FishFam
- What odds would you give the Marlins to make the playoffs next year? Seems like a solid young team with some really promising young pitchers
Steve Adams
- The only guys in the lineup I see as real regulars are Stowers, Marsee, maybe Edwards. I guess Agustin Ramirez if he can play a passable 1B, but even then, the lack of OBP is going to drag his value down pretty heavily. Maybe Joe Mack can handle C next year, but that’s a big if.
Plenty of upside on the pitching staff but even more injury risk. Eury, Sandy, Weathers, Cabrera, Meyer, Garrett all have major injuries in recent years.
Probably not the rosy outlook you were hoping for, haha, sorry. I think next year is too soon, but hey, they made the playoffs in 2023 despite having a roster I didn’t love.
- I’ve got to call it for the week. Anthony will have a chat with Front Office subscribers tomorrow. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.
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Thanks everyone, and enjoy your week!
