The Padres will look for starting pitching this offseason as they aim to re-establish themselves as an NL West contender.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Carlos Quentin, OF: $27MM through 2015
- Cameron Maybin, CF: 24.5MM through 2016
- Huston Street, RP: $14MM through 2014
- Cory Luebke, SP: $11.5MM through 2015
- Nick Hundley, C: $7MM through 2014
- Chris Denorfia, OF: $4.25MM through 2014
- Yasmani Grandal, C: $750K through 2013
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Chase Headley, 3B: third time eligible
- Tim Stauffer, SP: third time eligible, non-tender candidate
- Dustin Moseley, SP: third time eligible, non-tender candidate
- Micah Owings, RP: third time eligible, non-tender candidate
- Edinson Volquez, SP: third time eligible
- Clayton Richard, SP: second time eligible
- Luke Gregerson, RP: second time eligible
- Will Venable, OF: second time eligible
- John Baker, C: second time eligible, non-tender candidate
- Joe Thatcher, RP: second time eligible
- Kyle Blanks, OF: first time eligible
- Everth Cabrera, SS: first time eligible
Free Agents
With new ownership and a new television contract in place, there's optimism that the Padres can expand payroll in the relatively near future. Though the newly-approved, Ron Fowler-led ownership group has not revealed precisely where payroll will sit, GM Josh Byrnes recently indicated to Barry Bloom that it could increase. Regardless of how much money he has at his disposal, Byrnes is expected to prioritize starting pitching in the team's first offseason under new ownership.
The Padres have $30MM committed to the 2013 payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. San Diego's class of arbitration eligible players looks unusually large again this offseason, so much of the team's remaining flexibility will go toward players in their arb years.
Chase Headley (pictured) will be of particular interest following a season in which he emerged as an elite offensive producer despite Petco Park's pitcher-friendly tendencies. His salary could reach the $7MM range through the arbitration process, so he's not the bargain he once was. He's only going to get more expensive, and could command $50-80MM on an extension.
There are indications the new ownership group will spend to keep Headley, but if they aren't willing to do so, they should consider trading him. It might be difficult for fans to tolerate the move just one year after the Mat Latos trade and two years after the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Yet there's no sense in losing a franchise player for nothing but a draft pick when multiple MLB-ready prospects would be available in trades. The Padres have helped develop one of the game's top farm systems by trading elite MLB players before they become prohibitively expensive. If the team's new ownership group continues operating on one of the league's smallest payrolls, Byrnes will have to consider parting with Headley. At a time that teams such as the Braves, Phillies, White Sox and Diamondbacks could be in the market for third base help, demand for a player of Headley's caliber would be overwhelming. Hopefully for Padres fans, ownership decides to spend at a level that can accommodate an elite player as he approaches free agency. If not, the Padres must re-consider trading Headley.
Though the Padres out-scored just six teams this past season, they now seem set at most positions. They got an early start on the offseason by signing Carlos Quentin to a three-year contract and extending Chris Denorfia, the right-handed hitting platoon partner for Will Venable, on a modest two-year deal. These signings solidify an outfield that includes Venable, Cameron Maybin and Jesus Guzman, who also thrives against left-handed pitching.
The Padres also have enough internal options to pass on a relatively weak class of free agent infielders. Headley, Yonder Alonso, Logan Forsythe and Everth Cabrera have earned places atop the team’s depth chart, and Jedd Gyorko also figures to get the chance to contribute next year. San Diego struggled against right-handed pitching this past year, so if Byrnes can find a way to supplement Forsythe, yet another lefty masher, with a left-handed hitting second base backup he should do so.
The Padres could cut ties with arbitration eligible pitchers Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley and Micah Owings. Stauffer, a valuable contributor from 2009-11, appeared in just one game this past year because of an elbow injury. He'd earn $3MM or so if tendered a contract, so it's hard to argue that a low-budget team should retain him through the arbitration process. Similarly, Moseley appeared in just one game for the Padres in 2012. He underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in April and should also be non-tendered given his current salary of $2.01MM.
John Baker could be deemed expendable now that Nick Hundley and Yasmani Grandal are in place at catcher, so he's a non-tender or trade candidate. Kyle Blanks, the former top prospect who underwent season-ending labrum surgery in April, can expect a contract offer despite his lost season.
As mentioned, the rotation will be an offseason focus for San Diego. Presently it includes few sure things other than Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez. Promising arms such as Andrew Cashner and Casey Kelly could make an impact and Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland could return from injuries midway through the 2013 season. But Byrnes intends to add starters from outside of the organization following a season in which Richard and Volquez were the only pitchers to start more than 15 games.
Fly ball prone free agents such as Carlos Villanueva, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Jeremy Guthrie could succeed in Petco Park and they figure to be in the Padres' price range. Former Padres ace Jake Peavy, another free agent who allows his share of fly balls, could appeal to the Padres on a short-term deal, but he has significant leverage as one of the top pitchers available. An the other end of the spectrum, Carl Pavano and Daisuke Matsuzaka could be worth adding for a minimal commitment.
The Padres had a strong finish to the 2012 season, winning 42 of 75 second half games. To improve the chances that this success continues in 2013, Byrnes must obtain starting pitching depth over the winter. Extending Headley would be a reassuring move, though a new deal doesn't have to be reached at this time. Over the course of the first offseason since the sale of the club was completed we're sure to learn a lot about just how aggressive new ownership intends to be.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Headley to the Braves makes too much sense. Gilmartin and Teheran could compete for rotation spots with the Padres as soon as this spring, and would both almost certainly be in the majors by the end of the year.
I’d want a lot more than that for Headley, but I see the match you’re talking about with the Braves. I wouldn’t go after more prospects for Headley. I would want a proven front of the rotation type of starter. I would ask for Hanson and then some. A better match for both teams might be Jedd Gyorko to the Braves for pitching…
The Padres will probably explore an extension for Headley at this point.
You don’t want Tommy Hanson.
If the Pads send Headley to the Braves they need to get Simmons as part of the package in return. It is highly unlikely that will happen.
Agree on Simmons, he’s the kind of talent that would surely pique the Padres interest in discussing Headley. Very doubtful though.
if we’re gonna deal headley, which would greatly upset me, i’d want an MLB-ready corner outfielder just because Venable is streaky, Quinton may be gone (injury or trade) and Denorfia probably will never be an everyday OF. but as a baseball follower, yes, you’re right, if i am the braves i try and acquire headley yesterday.
Quentin wont get traded, they just extended him. He also has a no trade clause.
Gilmartin is thoroughly unimpressive (6.4 Ks per 9 innings last year in AA and AAA). Teheren struggled as well (6.7 Ks per 9 innings, 5.08 ERA). The Padres can get way more for Headley than this.
Should be Casey Kelly, not Joe Kelly in the third last paragraph.
I think you mean Casey Kelly, not Joe Kelly. Headley is the biggest decision this offseason. Fans would not be happy with a trade, but if we can get a haul like we did for Latos than it makes too much sense not to trade him and give Gyorko 3B.
so let me get this straight. John Baker (healthy all year, stellar back up, helped contribute with clutch hits) is a non-tender candidate, but Kyle Blanks (injury prone, can’t hit anything but a mistake and can’t field) might get offered a contract? wow! thats unreal! Hundley should be expendable AND Blanks, Keep Baker! Sheesh
They’re not going to carry 3 catchers next season but they could always swap Blanks for Guzman if he shows anything in Spring Training.
Blanks for Guzman? Blanks has only shown glimpses of potential. Guzman has been somewhat consistent during his MLB tenure.
Blanks has too much upside to not try at least one more time on.
upside? the dude is one of the worst i’ve ever seen.
You have bad sight, The man can have more 30 homer seasons. He has huge power but hasn’t figured out major league pitchiing. When he’s healthy he can be HUGE.
This is the same type of thinking that has kept Venable in the lineup through three different GMs. Some guys will never figure it out.
With Venable, like Headley, hitting very well away from Petco, I think fans still don’t grasp the way the park plays, especially for left-handed hitters. Something Venable is 100% of the time and Headley about 70%.
So what makes Headley so special but Venable is a waste? Both players were Super 2’s, meaning after last season Headley was where Venable is now in terms of service time in the majors. Venable has the higher fWar (9.9 vs 9.4) over that same period of time despite having much fewer plate appearances, 1773 vs 2114. Coming into the year Headley only slugged .400 in a season once, that was 2008 his partial season. Venable had done that three times.
Let’s non-tender Venable and the 2.5m he has coming to him, but definitely go out and give Headley that 70m extension.
In regards to Blanks, I can’t name a padres player that they’ve developed in the past decade, probably longer that showed the same kind of power Blanks did, albeit in short bursts due to never staying healthy up to this point. If he turns out to be the next Nelson Cruz or Michael Morse, won’t the same fans be running back crying foul how the Padres never get it right? One things for sure, he’s AL bound, but don’t blame the Padres for wanting to see if he’d turn good. I wish he would have gotten a 400-500 AB season.
With Venable’s 9.9 WAR, that production on the free agent market would be worth around 43m. Up to this point the Padres have paid hm less than 3m. Were those 3 GM’s not very bright about him, or was it someone else…
1st off half of WAR is based on fielding metrics that are worse than useless as a predictive stat until you get to 420 games of data, about 3 seasons. Venable barely has enough data in 5 seasons. Throw it out if you are trying to make meaningful comparisons of players future performance.
2nd If you must use WAR at all then over the past 3 seasons its Headley 15.1 fWAR to Venable.7.1 fWAR (and 10.2 fWAR to 4.4 fWAR over the past 2 seasons).
3rd Venable only has 35 less games & 480 less plate appearances over that same period.
That Headley has more playing time is a testament to his effectiveness against both RH starting pitching and LH starting pitching. A 9 point split for Headley vs a 47 point split for Venable. Ad to that Venable’s streaky play and you have a 4th OF. Headley has consistently been one of the top 3B in the NL, now MLB.
Blanks can mash when healthy. 20 HR, 22 Dbls and 3 Trpls in 448 AB. Getting him healthy and into the lineup on a regular basis has been his issue. With Quentin missing half of each of the next 3 seasons Blanks should get plenty of playing time.
Blanks has hit 20 HR in 488 AB. The kid can flat out MASH the ball. Scary strong. With Quentin guaranteed to miss half the season for each of the 3 seasons the Padres are stuck with him, having someone like Blanks is good insurance.
Or Darnell.
yes, I obviously prefer baker over hundley, the grandal-baker duo seems to work well
The best offseason move for the padres is to get healthy. I like the make up of this team if the right players can get on the field.
Skip Schumaker could be a good fit next year for the Pads. LH batter who can backup 2nd base and play all 3 OF positions. He’s a good hitter and a class individual with a great clubhouse presence who knows how to win. Descalso has earned the 2nd base position next year for the Cards and Chambers is ready for the 4th OF position.
agree, he looks like a good mid-role player, like denorfia or venable
I’m really excited about this team, if the 2013 padres are the second-half 2012 padres we have a good chance of making the playoffs,
please, keep headley, the keys will be the health of carlos Quentin and the consistency of yonder Alonso, just add one or two pitchers, and we are set, LET’S GO PADREEEES