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Archives for October 2012

NL East Notes: Rizzo, Johnson, Braves, Phillies

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Jayson Werth's walkoff homer gave the Nationals a 2-1 win over the Cardinals today and extended their NLDS series to a deciding fifth game tomorrow.  Gio Gonzalez will start Game Five against Adam Wainwright and the Cards, with the winning team advancing to face the Giants in the NLCS.  Here's the latest from Washington and elsewhere in the NL East…

Rangers Notes: Hamilton, Greinke, Napoli, Adams

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As the Rangers are still recovering from their disappointing finish to 2012, MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan discussed a number of offseason possibilities for the club as part of a reader mailbag piece.  Some of the hot stove highlights…

  • Josh Hamilton will get at least one big-money, long-term offer this winter, leaving little chance that the Rangers would be able to sign him for any kind of relative discount, Hamilton believes.  Rangers GM Jon Daniels said earlier this week that his team will wait to see what contract offers Hamilton receives from other clubs before making their own pitch to the free agent outfielder.
  • Zack Greinke will be a top target for the Rangers this winter.  "The Rangers made a strong push for him at the trade deadline…and this is still an organization that wants to build around pitching. That's where the club wants to spend its money," Sullivan writes.
  • The Rangers are "unsure" about making a qualifying offer to pending free agent Mike Napoli since if he accepted, Texas would owe the catcher approximately $13.35MM for the 2013 season.  If the Rangers didn't issue a qualifying offer and Napoli signed elsewhere, however, then the Rangers wouldn't receive any draft pick compensation.  Sullivan argues that Napoli could accept the qualifying offer in the wake of his somewhat disappointing 2012 season and look to rebound in 2013 to set himself up for a larger long-term deal with Texas or another club.
  • Though Mike Adams has been diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, Sullivan thinks the 34-year-old reliever could still find a multiyear deal as a free agent.  The Rangers would happily take Adams back on a one-year deal.   
  • Sullivan doesn't think Jacoby Ellsbury is a good fit in Texas and doesn't think the Rangers should or would trade Derek Holland or Elvis Andrus in exchange for the Red Sox center fielder.  "[Nelson] Cruz for Ellsbury, maybe. But it would seem more logical to take a chance on Leonys Martin than give up substantial talent for an injury-prone outfielder who can walk after next season," opines Sullivan.
  • Despite the numerous rumors about a Justin Upton trade, Sullivan isn't sure he's a fit for the Rangers since Cruz is already set at right field.  Center field would be the only question mark for Texas next season if Hamilton leaves, as the Rangers have Cruz in right and David Murphy in left.
  • Michael Young could receive some trade interest this winter from "a team in need of veteran leadership, as well as somebody who can play second base."  Young hit .277/.312/.370 in 651 plate appearances last season, his lowest career OPS for a full campaign.  Young turns 36 this month and is set to earn $16MM in 2013, the final year of his contract.  He also has no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player, adding another wrinkle to any possible trade talks.

Scott Rolen Expected To Retire

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Veteran third baseman Scott Rolen is preparing to retire, though he will delay an official announcement until later in the offseason, reports USA Today's Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).  Rolen was non-committal about his future when talking to reporters (including John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer) following the Reds' elimination from the NLDS today, just noting that his contract with the Reds was up and that he was "going to go home and be a dad."

It's a tough ending for Rolen, who struck out in the final at-bat of the series and also made an error in the 10th inning in Game Three that led to the Giants scoring the game-winning run.  Rolen hit .245/.318/.398 in 330 plate appearances for Cincinnati this year, with his playing time limited by both injuries and the Reds' desire to fit rookie Todd Frazier into the lineup.  Rolen signed a two-year, $13MM extension with the Reds in December 2009 that covered the 2011-12 seasons.

Injuries plagued Rolen throughout the latter years of his career, though his credentials could still end up earning him a spot in the Hall of Fame.  Highlights include the 1997 NL Rookie of the Year Award, seven All-Star appearances, a .281/.364/.490 batting line over 17 seasons, 316 homers and a World Series ring with the 2006 Cardinals.  Despite his impressive hitting numbers, Rolen may be best remembered as one of the game's great defensive third basemen, as the eight-time Gold Glover trails only Brooks Robinson (16) and Mike Schmidt (10) for number of Gold Gloves won at the hot corner.

Minor Transactions: Chulk, Dillard, Clevlen

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Baseball America's Matt Eddy recaps this week's minor league transactions, including these notable moves…

  • Brewers right-handers Vinnie Chulk and Tim Dillard have elected free agency.  After last pitching in the Major Leagues in 2009, Chulk posted a 10.00 ERA in nine relief innings for Milwaukee this season before he was designated for assignment in May.  Dillard, 29, was a 34th-round draft pick for Milwaukee in 2002 and has a 4.70 ERA in 73 career games over four seasons with the Brewers.  Dillard had a 4.38 ERA, a 10.9 H/9 rate and a 2.07 K/BB ratio in 37 relief innings in 2012.
  • The Diamondbacks re-signed outfielder Brent Clevlen to a new contract.  Clevlen signed a minor league deal with the D'Backs in April and posted a combined .290/.366/.520 line in 345 plate appearances for the franchise's Double-A and Triple-A affiliates.  Clevlen, 28, has a career .783 OPS over 11 minor league seasons plus 84 PAs in the majors with the Braves and Tigers, though just four of those PAs have come since 2008.

Scott, Rays Consider 2013 Option

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Luke Scott’s 2012 season fell short of expectations, but he’d like to return to Tampa Bay for another year. The 34-year-old designated hitter told Bill Chastain of MLB.com that he hopes the Rays exercise the $6MM club option on his contract instead of paying him a $1MM buyout.

“The environment is awesome,” Scott said. “It's just a great place to play. I really enjoyed my time here. I hope they'll have me back."

Scott made two trips to the disabled list this past season as a result of oblique and back injuries. When healthy he hit 14 home runs and posted a .229/.285/.439 batting line in 344 plate appearances. Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Chastain it’s too early to say whether Scott will be back for another year.

“He really scuffled in the first half,” Friedman said. “In the second half he had the type of output that we kind of anticipated if things went well and lined up well."

Nationals Notes: Strasburg, Rizzo, Jackson

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The Nationals are sending Ross Detwiler to the mound in a must-win home game against the Cardinals this afternoon. In the meantime here are some Nationals-related links…

  • The decision to shut Stephen Strasburg down appears to have irked people around MLB. Baseball executives are rooting for the Nationals to get eliminated from the playoffs, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. One GM said the Nationals “don’t deserve to win it” and another said "I hope they go down in flames. I hope it takes another 79 years before they get back to the playoffs. That's how strongly I feel about it."
  • Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post points out that Washington GM Mike Rizzo has financial incentives to win big now, since a contract extension could be at stake (Twitter link). Though the decision to shut Strasburg down was debatable, it doesn’t seem to have been motivated by self-interest. Rizzo's contract covers 2013 and includes club options for 2014 and 2015, according to Kilgore.
  • Edwin Jackson's disappointing Division Series start will likely be the last one he makes with the Nationals, Deron Snyder of the Washington Times writes. “It could be, it could not be,” Jackson said. “That’s definitely not the way I wanted to end it.” The right-hander hits free agency this offseason.

No New Talks For Felix, Mariners

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No new extension talks have occurred between the Mariners and their 26-year-old ace, Felix Hernandez, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). The right-hander's current contract covers the 2013 and 2014 seasons after which he'll be eligible for free agency.

GM Jack Zduriencik recently told Greg Johns of MLB.com that he hopes to keep Hernandez in Seattle long-term. The GM declined to publicly discuss whether the sides had had extension talks with the Octagon client.

Hernandez, the 2010 American League Cy Young Award winner, turned in another elite season in 2012. He started 33 games and pitched 232 innings, surpassing the 230-inning mark for the fourth consecutive season. He struck out nearly a batter per inning (8.7 K/9) while inducing ground balls (48.9% ground ball rate) and limiting walks (2.2 BB/9) and home runs (0.5 HR/9). As one of the game's top pitchers, Hernandez could ask for an annual salary approaching $25MM on an extension.

Duncan, Repko, Carlin, Hoey Hit Free Agency

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Outfielders Shelley Duncan and Jason Repko, catcher Luke Carlin and right-handers Jim Hoey and Robert Coello have hit free agency, according to the transactions page at CBSSports.com. Repko declared free agency while Carlin, Duncan, Hoey and Coello refused minor league assignments.

Duncan got more MLB playing time than the others in 2012. He spent much of the season as Cleveland's left fielder, and posted a .203/.288/.388 batting line in 264 MLB plate appearances. Carlin appeared in four games with the Indians this year, spending most of the season at Triple-A. The 31-year-old posted a .703 OPS in 244 plate appearances with Columbus.

Toronto outrighted Coello off of the 40-man roster two days ago after he appeared in six games with the club this past season. The 27-year-old also appeared in 19 games at Triple-A Las Vegas, posting a 3.00 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 42 innings. Hoey pitched alongside Coello in Las Vegas, posting a 4.60 ERA in 60 2/3 innings.

Repko played in five games for the Red Sox this year and posted a .743 OPS in 228 minor league plate appearances.

Arbitration Eligibles: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Ziegler and Albers both posted sub-3.00 ERAs in 2012, aided by strong groundball rates.  Look for both to be retained at reasonable prices.

Johnson, acquired from Houston in July, showed increased power for Arizona in a limited sample and will come into 2013 as the team's likely starter at the hot corner.  He projects as a Super Two player.  Parra was an oft-used fourth outfielder for most of 2012.  A skilled defender, Parra may have an increased role next year if the D'Backs move him or another outfielder.

Kennedy's body of work — 46 wins, 684 innings, and a 3.76 ERA — is quite impressive and only a little shy of where Jered Weaver was prior to his first arbitration year.  With so many of the best starting pitchers locked into long-term contracts these days by the time they reach arbitration, our projection model actually has a pretty small sample with which to work.  So, it cranked out $4.6MM for Kennedy, which would be a first-time starting pitcher arbitration record.  In reality, we feel he will come in shy of Weaver, hence the "off-model" $4.2MM projection above.

Regardless, Kennedy is due for a very strong first-year arbitration salary.  It's possible the D'Backs will look to lock him up, saving some money for 2013 in the process.  The standard four-year, $30MM contract we've seen so often has been for pitchers with less than three years of service, whereas Kennedy is well past that point.  Gio Gonzalez's five-year, $42MM contract might be a better target, although it's not a perfect match since Gonzalez was a Super Two.

Nieves, Zagurski, Ransom, and Bergesen are the team's non-tender candidates.  If Henry Blanco returns as Miguel Montero's backup, Nieves will not be needed.  Zagurski was removed from Arizona's 40-man roster in April and August, and he'll probably be removed again.  The D'Backs also removed Ransom in May, though they brought him back in an August waiver claim.  Bergesen was acquired from Baltimore in a July waiver claim, and it's debatable whether the club will want him back for a long relief role.

Assuming only Ziegler, Albers, Johnson, Parra, and Kennedy are retained, we're projecting $12.6MM in salary for arbitration eligible Diamondbacks for 2013.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Quick Hits: Sanchez, Leyland, Felix, Blue Jays

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With Terry Francona now off the market, it wouldn't make a sense for the Tigers to let Jim Leyland go at the end of the year, opines Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press.  Yesterday, Leyland confirmed that he wants to continue managing in 2013, but the veteran skipper's contract will expire at the end of the year.  Here's more from around baseball..

  • If the Tigers re-sign Anibal Sanchez, they'll have to move another one of their starting pitchers, opines Jason Beck of MLB.com.  Beyond the simple numbers issue, the Tigers will be facing a payroll crunch if they choose to keep Sanchez with the same rotation in place.  Justin Verlander will earn $20MM next season, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello will head to arbitration for the second time, and Doug Fister is first-time arb eligible.  In theory, Detroit could part with one of the four and plug Drew Smyly in their place.
  • Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach is set to interview with the Red Sox for their managerial vacancy next week, tweets Ken Gurnick of the Los Angeles Times.
  • Mariners General Manager Jack Zduriencik wouldn't discuss whether he has had contract extension talks with ace Felix Hernandez, but reiterated that both sides are hoping that he will stay put in Seattle for the long-term, writes Greg Johns of MLB.com.  Hernandez has two years and $40.5MM left on the five-year, $78MM deal he inked in 2010.
  • Omar Vizquel opined earlier this year that the Blue Jays were in desperate need of veteran leadership, but Jose Bautista says that he doesn't agree with that assessment, writes Chris Toman of MLB.com.  "I really don't understand why everybody is making — in my eyes — a big deal out of that subject," Bautista said. "It's not something that needs to be addressed in our clubhouse."
  • Despite talk of the Phillies looking to improve with minor moves this winter, Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News wouldn't rule out Ruben Amaro making a major splash by signing the likes of B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn.

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