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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Hamilton, Haren, Felix

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For the first time in baseball history, all four LDS series will go the full five games. The Tigers and Giants advanced to the LCS round yesterday while the Yankees-Orioles and Nationals-Cardinals will sort out their series later today. Here is the latest from around the blogosphere…

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Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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The Padres will look for starting pitching this offseason as they aim to re-establish themselves as an NL West contender.

Guaranteed Contracts 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

With new ownership and a new television contract in place, there's optimism that the Padres can expand payroll in the relatively near future. Though the newly-approved, Ron Fowler-led ownership group has not revealed precisely where payroll will sit, GM Josh Byrnes recently indicated to Barry Bloom that it could increase. Regardless of how much money he has at his disposal, Byrnes is expected to prioritize starting pitching in the team's first offseason under new ownership. 

Chase Headley - Padres (PW)

The Padres have $30MM committed to the 2013 payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. San Diego's class of arbitration eligible players looks unusually large again this offseason, so much of the team's remaining flexibility will go toward players in their arb years. 

Chase Headley (pictured) will be of particular interest following a season in which he emerged as an elite offensive producer despite Petco Park's pitcher-friendly tendencies. His salary could reach the $7MM range through the arbitration process, so he's not the bargain he once was. He's only going to get more expensive, and could command $50-80MM on an extension.

There are indications the new ownership group will spend to keep Headley, but if they aren't willing to do so, they should consider trading him. It might be difficult for fans to tolerate the move just one year after the Mat Latos trade and two years after the Adrian Gonzalez trade. Yet there's no sense in losing a franchise player for nothing but a draft pick when multiple MLB-ready prospects would be available in trades. The Padres have helped develop one of the game's top farm systems by trading elite MLB players before they become prohibitively expensive. If the team's new ownership group continues operating on one of the league's smallest payrolls, Byrnes will have to consider parting with Headley. At a time that teams such as the Braves, Phillies, White Sox and Diamondbacks could be in the market for third base help, demand for a player of Headley's caliber would be overwhelming. Hopefully for Padres fans, ownership decides to spend at a level that can accommodate an elite player as he approaches free agency. If not, the Padres must re-consider trading Headley.

Though the Padres out-scored just six teams this past season, they now seem set at most positions. They got an early start on the offseason by signing Carlos Quentin to a three-year contract and extending Chris Denorfia, the right-handed hitting platoon partner for Will Venable, on a modest two-year deal. These signings solidify an outfield that includes Venable, Cameron Maybin and Jesus Guzman, who also thrives against left-handed pitching.

The Padres also have enough internal options to pass on a relatively weak class of free agent infielders. Headley, Yonder Alonso, Logan Forsythe and Everth Cabrera have earned places atop the team’s depth chart, and Jedd Gyorko also figures to get the chance to contribute next year. San Diego struggled against right-handed pitching this past year, so if Byrnes can find a way to supplement Forsythe, yet another lefty masher, with a left-handed hitting second base backup he should do so.

The Padres could cut ties with arbitration eligible pitchers Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley and Micah Owings. Stauffer, a valuable contributor from 2009-11, appeared in just one game this past year because of an elbow injury. He'd earn $3MM or so if tendered a contract, so it's hard to argue that a low-budget team should retain him through the arbitration process. Similarly, Moseley appeared in just one game for the Padres in 2012. He underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in April and should also be non-tendered given his current salary of $2.01MM.

John Baker could be deemed expendable now that Nick Hundley and Yasmani Grandal are in place at catcher, so he's a non-tender or trade candidate. Kyle Blanks, the former top prospect who underwent season-ending labrum surgery in April, can expect a contract offer despite his lost season.

As mentioned, the rotation will be an offseason focus for San Diego. Presently it includes few sure things other than Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez. Promising arms such as Andrew Cashner and Casey Kelly could make an impact and Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland could return from injuries midway through the 2013 season. But Byrnes intends to add starters from outside of the organization following a season in which Richard and Volquez were the only pitchers to start more than 15 games.

Fly ball prone free agents such as Carlos Villanueva, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Jeremy Guthrie could succeed in Petco Park and they figure to be in the Padres' price range. Former Padres ace Jake Peavy, another free agent who allows his share of fly balls, could appeal to the Padres on a short-term deal, but he has significant leverage as one of the top pitchers available. An the other end of the spectrum, Carl Pavano and Daisuke Matsuzaka could be worth adding for a minimal commitment.

The Padres had a strong finish to the 2012 season, winning 42 of 75 second half games. To improve the chances that this success continues in 2013, Byrnes must obtain starting pitching depth over the winter. Extending Headley would be a reassuring move, though a new deal doesn't have to be reached at this time. Over the course of the first offseason since the sale of the club was completed we're sure to learn a lot about just how aggressive new ownership intends to be.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Reds To Offer Baker Contract

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The Reds want manager Dusty Baker back for the 2013 season. General manager Walt Jocketty planned to meet with Baker and offer him a short-term contract this morning, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter).

The Reds were eliminated from the playoffs yesterday, ending a season that saw the team win 97 games and the NL Central title. Baker, who has managed the Reds since 2008, recently missed some time after suffering a mini-stroke. However, he recently said he's "not through managing," an indication that he expects to return for at least one more season.

The Reds have won the NL Central twice since Baker was hired, and their overall winning percentage for the five year period is .517.  The 63-year-old earned $3.5MM per season on his first contract with Cincinnati.

Red Sox, Ross Build Momentum Toward Contract

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Contract talks between the Red Sox and Cody Ross have gained “some momentum,” Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. The Red Sox are attempting to re-sign the outfielder, who is on track to hit free agency once the World Series ends.

The Red Sox had some preliminary extension talks with Ross throughout the second half of the season, but the team never presented the SFX client with a formal offer, according to Bradford. Boston’s front office executives continued talks with Ross and fellow free agent David Ortiz earlier in the month.

Ross, 31, posted a .267/.326/.481 batting line in 528 plate appearances for the Red Sox this past season. He contributed 22 home runs and 34 doubles while playing all three outfield positions and earning $3MM.

Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Several arbitration eligible Cubs stand a good chance of being non-tendered.  With a 6.31 ERA, Volstad had a terrible year, and paying him anything close to $3MM doesn't make sense.  Stewart was affected all year by a wrist injury, which culminated in July surgery.  MLB.com's Carrie Muskat quoted Cubs GM Jed Hoyer on the situation last month: "Obviously, we'll spend a lot of time getting to the bottom of how it looks going forward before making a decision on his future with us.  It is a year that's hard to evaluate given the wrist."  So, Stewart at least has some chance of sticking around.

Valbuena picked up a lot of starts at third base in Stewart's absence, and manager Dale Sveum told Muskat he sees the 26-year-old on next year's team.  Valbuena's numbers — .219/.310/.340 in 303 plate appearances — don't make a strong case, however.  Corpas didn't have a particularly good year, and seems likely to be cut loose.

Samardzija spent the year in the Cubs' rotation and authored a breakout campaign, just in time for arbitration.  It's tough to find good comparables, since the pitcher had spent most of his previous innings in relief.  We've got him at $2.9MM, though his agency could make a case for something in excess of $3.5MM.  If the Cubs look to extend Samardzija, perhaps Johnny Cueto's four-year, $27MM deal would be a template.  Russell had a solid year out of the Cubs' pen, but won't be expensive his first time through arbitration.

Garza pitched a bit more than half a season before a triceps/elbow injury cut him short.  We're projecting a pretty mild raise up to $10MM, but this is another situation light on comparables.  If Garza comes up strong in the first half of 2013, the Cubs must decide whether to trade him, extend him, or let him walk as a free agent (potentially with a qualifying offer).    

If only Garza, Valbuena, Samardzija, and Russell are retained, we're estimating $14.7MM in salary to four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Braves Extend Frank Wren

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Five years into Frank Wren's tenure as the Braves' general manager, the team continues contending on an annual basis. Wren will have at least two more seasons to bring a championship to Atlanta, as he has agreed to a contract extension through 2014. His previous contract covered the 2012-13 seasons.

In related moves the Braves promoted Bruce Manno to the role of vice president and assistant GM/player development and John Coppolella to the role of assistant GM.

“These changes are a reflection of the good work and success of our Major League baseball team and the work of Frank and his senior staff,” team president John Schuerholz said.

Atlanta won 94 games this year, losing to the Cardinals in a controversy-filled Wild Card play-in game. It marked Atlanta's second postseason appearance under Wren; the Braves lost in the Division Series two years ago.

Since being named to his current post on October 11, 2007, Wren has weathered the departure of franchise icons Bobby Cox and Chipper Jones while acquiring key contributors. Wren traded for players such as Jair Jurrjens and Michael Bourn, claimed Eric O'Flaherty off of waivers, and signed Brandon Beachy as a non-drafted free agent. The 54-year-old GM signed Derek Lowe for four years and $60MM, but in general the team has not spent aggressively on outside free agents, as MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker shows.

Wren, Schuerholz's former assistant, joined the Braves in 2000. The former minor league outfielder had previously worked for the Expos, Marlins and Orioles, including a stint as Baltimore's GM.

Quick Hits: Kinsler, Marcum, K-Rod, Rays

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For the first time since baseball expanded the playoff field to eight teams, all four divisional series have gone to a deciding fifth game.  The Nationals and Orioles forced Game Fives that will take place tomorrow, so we've got one more wild day of first-round baseball in store before the LCS round.  Here are some news items from around the league…

  • How the Rangers decide to use Ian Kinsler next season will impact the rest of their offseason moves, writes Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas.  Durrett suggests that Kinsler should be dropped from the leadoff spot in the batting order and moved to the outfield to make room for Jurickson Profar at second base.
  • Shaun Marcum doesn't expect to pitch for the Brewers next season, the pending free agent told Todd Rosiak and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last week.  Marcum said the Brewers "haven't said anything" to him about a contract extension.  "I think that ship sailed a long time ago," Marcum said.  "It's just one of those things. It's baseball, it's a business and we all understand that. You play to get to free agency, so we'll see what happens."
  • Also from Rosiak and Haudricourt, Francisco Rodriguez said he would "love to come back" to Milwaukee.  Rodriguez surprisingly accepted arbitration from the Brewers last season, earning himself $8MM in 2012.  The club obviously won't repeat the move again this year but Rodriguez could still return on a smaller deal if he can't find a closer's job elsewhere.
  • The Rays have asked the city of St. Petersburg for permission to explore potential stadium sites outside of the St. Pete area, reports Stephen Nohlgren of the Tampa Bay Times.  The Rays' lease at Tropicana Field runs through the 2027 season and St. Petersburg mayor Bill Foster "has been adamant" about keeping the team in his city for the duration of the lease, albeit possibly in a new ballpark.

Diamondbacks Considering Trading Kubel Or Parra

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The Diamondbacks are weighing whether Jason Kubel or Gerardo Parra is a better fit as their everyday left fielder in 2012, GM Kevin Towers tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  The Snakes are also looking for help at shortstop and third base this winter, and Towers said those decisions will affect the direction that Arizona takes in left field.

"When you put a club together, it’s more of a puzzle,” Towers said. “What you do at short and third maybe changes what your need is in left. If you get more offense on the corner, then maybe there’s more of a premium for the defender in left. If you don’t get the offense and you get the defense in the infield, you have to have your power somewhere."

Piecoro projects the 2013 D'Backs outfield as Justin Upton remaining with the team and playing right field, Adam Eaton playing center, and one of Kubel or Parra in left, leaving A.J. Pollock as the fourth outfielder.  The loser of the Kubel/Parra decision would become expendable along with Chris Young, who has already been rumored to be on the trading block.  Young is owed $8.5MM in 2013 and his $11MM option for 2014 carries a $1.5MM buyout, and Piecoro reports that the D'Backs expect to eat some of that money in any Young trade.

Kubel signed a two-year, $15MM deal with Arizona last December and he hit 30 homers with a .253/.328/.506 batting line in 2012, though he slumped in the second half of the season, posting just a .745 OPS after the All-Star break.  Parra posted a .727 OPS in 430 plate appearances last year and provided his usual excellent glovework, recording a +13.8 UZR/150 rating.  It's a clear choice between hitting and defense for the Snakes, though contracts also play a role — while Kubel will earn $7.5MM next year, Parra is arb-eligible for the second time this winter and is under control through 2015 as a Super Two player.

Towers mentioned how defense was an important factor at Chase Field and that he wanted the team to be less reliant on home runs, leaving Piecoro to speculate that this could mean the D'Backs could move away from Kubel in left and Chris Johnson at third base.

In other team news, Piecoro hears that Trevor Bauer isn't likely to be traded.  D'Backs managing general partner Ken Kendrick sounded critical of Bauer last week, leading to some speculation that the team had soured on the highly-touted 21-year-old.  If Arizona actually did make Bauer available, the 2011 third overall pick would instantly become one of the biggest trade chips on the market this offseason.

AL Central Notes: Cespedes, Boesch, Francona, Soria

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As the Tigers prepare to face the A's in the deciding game of their ALDS series, here's the latest from the AL Central…

  • The Tigers "had a de facto deal" with Yoenis Cespedes last winter, reports Peter Gammons for MLB.com, before the Tigers instead chose to sign Prince Fielder.  Cespedes, of course, signed with the A's instead and now could play a role in the end of Detroit's season.
  • Brennan Boesch wasn't on the Tigers' playoff roster and his "days likely are numbered in Detroit," writes Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press.  Boesch hit a disappointing .240/.286/.372 last season and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, so the Tigers might not tender him a contract.  Sharp hints that Rick Porcello could also be non-tendered (Porcello is arb-eligible for the second time), though with so many pitching-needy teams in baseball, the Tigers might be better served by dealing Porcello than cutting him outright.
  • The reported out clause in Terry Francona's Indians contract that allows the manager to leave if GM Chris Antonetti or president Mark Shapiro are fired is not a big deal, opines Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  "Shapiro and Antonetti owe their futures with the Tribe to Francona" already, Pluto argues, so if the team continues to struggle, a total change in front office and field management is the logical next step.
  • The Indians are much more likely to pursue upgrades through the trade market than through free agency, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
  • “It’s better for me and my family (to stay with the Royals)," Joakim Soria tells Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star.  "My wife is pregnant. I’m just focusing on my rehab. The most important thing is for me to get healthy. After that, everything else will come together."  Dutton says that Royals team officials "privately acknowledge" that Soria's $8MM option for 2013 will be bought out within three days of the World Series ending, though both sides are interested in reaching a new contract.

Managerial Notes: Baker, Red Sox, Ausmus, Rockies

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Joe Girardi won’t be named AL Manager of the Year for his efforts in the regular season — that honor will go to Buck Showalter or Bob Melvin — but he made the most memorable substitution of the year last night when he replaced Alex Rodriguez, one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball history, with Raul Ibanez. As you know by now, Ibanez homered and then homered again as the Yankees took the lead over Showalter’s Orioles in the Division Series. Now for today’s managerial notes…

  • Reds GM Walt Jocketty told reporters (including John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that he expects manager Dusty Baker and the coaching staff to return in 2013.  Baker has completed his last year under contract with the Reds and said he's “not sure where my career is going here in Cincinnati. We’re going to talk about that in the next couple of days. But I’m not through managing. I have more to do.”
  • The Red Sox are prioritizing Major League managing, coaching or playing experience in their search for a new skipper, which is why Triple-A Pawtucket manager Arnie Beyeler is not being considered, reports Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston.  The Sox have yet to contact Blue Jays first base coach Torey Lovullo or White Sox third base coach Joe McEwing (who was considered for Boston's managerial job last year).
  • The Red Sox will interview Padres special assistant Brad Ausmus for their managerial job early next week, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (on Twitter). Ausmus, the former MLB catcher, isn’t the only NL West-based candidate who has caught the attention of Red Sox personnel. The Red Sox are also expected to interview Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach for the position.
  • The Rockies announced that they will interview Tom Runnells for their managerial opening, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. Rockies executives will interview the 57-year-old bench coach today. Runnells, the former manager of the Montreal Expos, is up against Stu Cole, the manager of the Rockies' Triple-A affiliate.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

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