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Red Sox Receive De La Rosa, Sands From Dodgers

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The Red Sox announced that they have received right-hander Rubby De La Rosa and outfielder Jerry Sands to complete their blockbuster deal with the Dodgers from earlier this summer.  In a related move, the club has designated catcher Guillermo Quiroz for assignment.

De La Rosa and Sands were already known to be the players to be named later in the August 25th swap, but the two sides had to wait until the end of the major league season to make that end of the deal official.  The other two prospects in the trade, pitcher Allen Webster and infielder Ivan De Jesus, already joined Boston. 

De La Rosa, 23, was sidelined for the bulk of the 2012 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  The right-hander had a strong debut season in 2011, posting a 3.71 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in ten starts and three relief appearances.  De La Rosa and Webster were considered to be the top pitchers in the Los Angeles farm system after two-sport standout Zach Lee.

Sands, 25, posted a .244/.325/.376 slash line with four homers in 251 plate appearances for the Dodgers over the last two seasons.  He also owns a Triple-A batting line of .288/.362/.552 with 55 home runs in 940 plate appearances during that stretch.

Quiroz, 30, has seen time for the Blue Jays, Mariners (twice) , Rangers, Orioles, and Red Sox across eight big league seasons.  He spent most of the year with Seattle's Triple-A affiliate, where he hit .278/.362/.483 with 15 homers in 89 games.

AL East Notes: MacPhail, Cano, Rays, Blue Jays

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Bobby Valentine has officially been dismissed, which means the Red Sox will embark on their second managerial search in as many years. GM Ben Cherington has said he hopes to conclude the search earlier this time. Here are some notes on Boston’s division rivals…

  • Former Orioles president Andy MacPhail told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that he's happy for the team’s fans, players and executives. He acknowledged that it "would have been a lot of fun" to be present for Baltimore's playoff run, but said he doesn't regret stepping down to spend time with his family. MacPhail said he's starting to think about working in baseball again and noted that, at 59 years old, he's "way too young" to do nothing. "I think there are a variety of things that would interest me," he told Connolly.
  • MacPhail noted that Dan Duquette has done an excellent job of finding starting pitching depth this year.
  • Executives suggest an extension for Robinson Cano could cost the Yankees $200MM, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes. The second baseman says he hasn’t “thought about anything," but the Yankees can’t allow him to hit free agency in Passan’s view. New York will exercise its $15MM option for Cano after the season, delaying his free agency until the end of the 2013 season.
  • Rays executive VP Andrew Friedman said he's "not going to be flippant" about Tampa Bay's impressive pitching depth this coming offseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Friedman also said he expects to talk with Larry Reynolds, the agent for B.J. Upton, even though the sides aren't expected to agree to a new contract.
  • Mike Axisa rounded up the latest Red Sox-related rumors earlier today. Here's one more note from Boston: the Blue Jays would want “a decent player” in a deal for manager John Farrell, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald reports.

Arbitration Eligibles: Houston Astros

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The Astros kick off our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Norris, 27, authored an uneven season leading up to his first arbitration year.  He posted a stellar 1.71 home ERA versus 6.94 on the road, for an overall 4.65 platform year ERA that won't lead to big arbitration bucks.  Norris also comes up short on wins, another important stat for pitchers in arbitration.  He's won only 28 of 97 career starts, but at least gets credit for the innings.  Other first-time starters such as Doug Fister and Mike Leake will come into play for Norris' arbitration discussions.  Beyond his 2013 salary, the broader question is whether Astros GM Jeff Luhnow will attempt to extent Norris at some point.  Prior to this season, Luhnow told Milo Hamilton Norris was "a critical part of the plan moving forward."

The Astros acquired Lowrie as part of the Mark Melancon trade with Boston in December of last year, and the shortstop stayed true to his history of solid production in injury-shortened seasons.  To be fair, the 28-year-old's injuries have mostly been freakish in nature, and Luhnow noted in a June MLB.com chat, "while I’d never say anyone is untradeable, he’s not likely to go anywhere for a while…or longer!"  Though Lowrie has just 353 games under his belt, he has racked up big league service time, so he'll be eligible for free agency after 2014.  This offseason would be a fine time for Luhnow to hammer out a team-friendly extension.  Yunel Escobar's contract might be a good model, but with less guaranteed money.

The Astros also have a pair of first-time relievers on the docket in Lopez and Wright, and both should be affordable in lieu of big saves or holds totals.  Lopez can ramp up his salary dramatically if he holds onto the team's closing job for all of 2013.  Gonzalez is the team's lone non-tender candidate, as he's barely sniffed the Majors since '09 and the Astros waited until September to grant him a 40-man roster spot.  Assuming he is cut loose, the Astros will have an estimated $7.1MM in 2013 salaries for four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Red Sox Notes: John Farrell, Bobby Valentine

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The Red Sox dismissed manager Bobby Valentine earlier today, and GM Ben Cherington will presumably begin the search for his replacement right away. Here's the latest on the AL East cellar-dwellers…

  • Boston has targeted their former pitching coach and current Blue Jays manager John Farrell as Valentine's replacement, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. It would require compensation to lure him away from Toronto, however.
  • Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe (on Twitter) confirms that the Sox will go after Farrell, but they also won't rule out former captain Jason Varitek for their managerial post.
  • In today's Insider-only blog post, ESPN's Buster Olney wrote about Valentine's tenure in Boston and where things went wrong. It started in Spring Training with an incident involving Mike Aviles.
  • WEEI.com's Rob Bradford listed three key moments that contributed to Valentine's downfall with the Red Sox, including the Aviles incident.

Frasor Flexible On Cusp Of Free Agency

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For some players free agency means long-term contract offers and lavish visits to the cities of interested teams. Jason Frasor is not one of those players, and he knows it. The 35-year-old right-hander remains flexible as his upcoming appearance on the free agent market approaches, and he insists he’ll play ‘for anybody.’

“I’m not too picky,” he told MLBTR this weekend. “They’re all big league cities and I’ve been to each one. The thing is there are so many middle relievers. It’s flooded with guys who do the same job as I do, so you’re really fighting for spots. There are only so many spots to go around.”

Jason Frasor - Blue Jays (PW)

Frasor will hit free agency after the World Series ends and, assuming the Blue Jays don't make him a qualifying offer, he won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. He was linked to compensation as a Type A free agent the last time he hit free agency, following the 2010 season. Instead of hitting the market as a Type A player, he accepted Toronto's offer of arbitration before signing his current contract. It’s a process he won’t miss.

“Looking back, it wasn’t that fun,” Frasor said, reflecting on the now-defunct Type A and Type B designations. “It wasn’t that great. A few teams called, but I had strings attached … I’m glad that’s gone. Now if they want you they can sign you. They don’t have to give up a first round pick for a middle reliever. That doesn’t make any sense.”

Frasor’s generally strong 2012 season ended with consecutive outings in which he allowed two earned runs without completing an inning. The Blue Jays’ all-time leader in career pitching appearances finished the year with a 4.12 ERA, 10.9 K.9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 38.4% ground ball rate in 50 appearances. His average fastball velocity remained 93 mph and his swinging strike rate stayed relatively constant at 9.0%. Those numbers will be enough to generate modest contract offers at a time that many teams are seeking relief help.

The nine-year veteran will weigh contract value and location when deciding where to sign this offseason. He prefers the East Coast, feels more comfortable in the American League and would ideally prefer to join a winning team.

“But again, that’s not going to stop me from signing with a West Coast team,” he added. “We’ll see.”

Frasor realizes middle relievers often wait until the new year before finding jobs, and he would like to avoid that fate if possible. His preference would be to sign relatively soon instead of drawing out the free agent process. Beyond that his next move is anybody’s guess.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Red Sox Fire Bobby Valentine

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Manager Bobby Valentine will not return to the Red Sox next season, the team announced (on Twitter). GM Ben Cherington will lead the search for his replacement.

“This year’s won-loss record reflects a season of agony,” said Red Sox President/CEO Larry Lucchino in a release. “It begs for changes, some of which have already transpired. More will come. We are determined to fix that which is broken and return the Red Sox to the level of success we have experienced over the past decade."

Valentine led the Sox to a 69-93 record and a last place finish in his only season at the helm. His dismissal is not much of a surprise, especially in light of some of Cherington's recent comments. Valentine was under contract for next season at $2.5MM, which the team is still obligated to pay him.

Curtis Granderson Previews MLBPA Offseason

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Curtis Granderson capped off the 2012 season with a two-home run effort at Yankee Stadium yesterday, as New York beat Boston 14-2 and clinched the American League East title. His season isn’t over yet — the Yankees will play in the Division Series starting this weekend — but for most of his peers in the MLB Players Association it’s time to look ahead ahead to the offseason. Granderson, a prominent member of MLBPA's Executive Board, expects this winter to unfold more quietly than last it did a year ago, when the players and owners negotiated a new collective bargaining agreement.

Curtis Granderson - Yankees (PW)

“All the main things that needed to be discussed happened last year,” Granderson told MLBTR this past weekend. “There won’t be any big, major holdups — just a few things to try to iron out that could start this year that may not finish up for the next couple of years. It’ll just be a lot of discussion.”

The talks will have a different tone this offseason. Though baseball’s players and owners negotiated their current CBA without any of the public bickering that has accompanied recent labor discussions in the NFL, NBA and NHL, tense moments are bound to occur while determining the financial structure of a $7 billion industry. Now that major issues such as the luxury tax, the amateur draft and revenue sharing have been resolved through 2016, the MLBPA can focus on other details.

“Obviously there are always issues each year that arise and different things from new helmet regulations, pace of game, different things with performance enhancing drug issues that we’ve had this year, scheduling with another team going to the American League, Interleague Play starting in the first week of the season,” Granderson said. “So just little things like that, but nothing major.”

Granderson, one of two association representatives for the MLBPA (Jeremy Guthrie of the Royals is the other), will keep in contact with his fellow players via phone calls and text messages over the course of the coming offseason. When a major issue emerges, the MLBPA attempts to reach as many players as possible.

“We have ways of getting in touch with everybody,” Granderson said. “Pretty quickly now, especially with everybody having a cell phone no matter where they happen to be in the world.”

When he’s not communicating with other MLB players, Granderson stays informed on labor unrest in other sports. Former MLBPA Executive Director Don Fehr represents NHL players in the current lockout, and Granderson, who worked a bit with Fehr in the past, has monitored talks with an outsider’s perspective.

“I’m still a fan,” he said. “I like watching those games and whenever they get the chance to go back out there, hopefully everybody’s taken care of.”

For now baseball players don't have major labor concerns of their own, which means fewer distractions for Granderson as the Yankees prepare for another postseason run.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Figgins Wants Out Of Seattle

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Three quarters of the way through a disappointing four-year contract, Chone Figgins wants out of Seattle. The 34-year-old utility player told John Hickey of SportsPressNW.com that he’d prefer not to play for the Mariners any longer (Twitter link).

"I can't take two more years of this," Figgins said.

Figgins' four-year, $36MM contract includes an $8MM salary in 2013 and a $9MM vesting option for 2014. He appeared in 66 games this year, posting a .181/.262/.271 batting line in 194 plate appearances. Figgins played third base and all three outfield positions, but appeared in Just four games from September on.

Introducing The 2013 Arbitration Projections

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Twenty teams have officially finished their seasons and are already considering available free agents, which means they also have to consider whom they can afford. This involves predicting the salaries they will have to pay to arbitration-eligible players. Rather than having their salaries determined by the highest bid, their salaries are set to be determined by an arbitration panel. Of course, very few players actually ever make it in front of that panel, since teams and agents spend considerable resources trying to resolve their salaries in advance.

Last year, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes asked me if I thought I could put together a model that predicted arbitration salaries. I had studied free agent salaries, but I decided that I could probably do almost as well with arbitration salaries. It went better than expected: the model was within 10% of the actual salary for 55% of players who signed one-year deals, and was within $1MM for all but 4 of the 156 arbitration-eligible players.

Unlike free agents, whose salaries are determined by the highest bid among 30 teams with 30 different ways of predicting and valuing future performance, arbitration eligible players receive salaries based on the similarity between their past performance and the performances of other comparable players. A well-designed model can do a good job of sifting out which statistics are most important and predict salaries accordingly.

Last year’s model was strong, but there were still a number of players who were poorly projected. One category with which I struggled was breakout stars entering arbitration for the first time. Jordan Zimmermann received a salary of $2.3 million, above my projection of $1.8 million. Even though he only had 23 career starts in an injury-checkered past before going into 2011, his solid 3.18 ERA in 161 1/3 innings in 2011 seemed to matter more than his previous injuries. Another thing I learned in my projections for 2012 was that previous salary did not matter much for first-time eligible players. My biggest overestimates included projecting David Price at $7.8MM instead of his actual $4.35 million salary and Rick Porcello for $4.2MM instead of his actual $3.1MM, since I thought hefty Major League deals given to draft picks would give these players a leg up going into arbitration. This is not true, as I have since learned. I also missed big on some players who had strong rebound performances after being non-tendered the season before. The biggest miss was projecting Melky Cabrera’s 2012 salary; I only predicted a $4.4MM salary, instead of his $6MM earnings. It turns out that bouncing back after being non-tendered gives players like Cabrera a little extra room for raises, and such players are now projected for higher salaries in 2013.

I did a lot of work on improving pitcher projections for this year’s model. I originally included all pitchers into the same model, which gave them credit for wins, saves, and holds as they received them in each role. This was supposed to better incorporate swingmen and other pitchers with evolving roles, but now I have separate models for starters and relievers, which allows for more accuracy for everyone. In last year’s model, I ignored the importance of strikeouts for starters and had to introduce other measures to juice the salaries of elite starters. This year’s model incorporates elite starters much more smoothly. The starter/reliever distinction also gave me an opportunity to notice an important feature about arbitration — declining marginal returns to individual statistics. It turns out that the gap in earnings is much larger between pitchers with 170 innings and 200 innings than between pitchers with 200 innings and 230 innings, and that a guy with 30 saves out-earns a guy with 20 saves far more than a guy with 40 saves out-earns a guy with 30 saves.

In the coming weeks, we will present the projections for all 30 Major League teams’ arbitration-eligible players. Last year’s projections had a good foundation, but we believe this year’s will be even better. These can help teams and fans alike as they try to anticipate trades, extensions and non-tenders and determine how much money is available for free agents.

Marlins Seeking Replacement For Guillen

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It appears that the Marlins’ disappointing season will cost Ozzie Guillen his job. The Marlins are aggressively seeking a replacement for Guillen, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (on Twitter). It’s not clear if Miami executives will fire Guillen before finding a replacement.

The Marlins acquired Guillen from the White Sox toward the end of the 2011 season, but the team fell short of expectations, finishing last in the NL East with a 69-93 record. Guillen has three years remaining on the four-year, $10MM contract he signed with the Marlins a year ago. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported last month that the Marlins would likely hire a low-priced alternative if they dismiss Guillen. Owner Jeffrey Loria will make the final call.

The Marlins talked extensively about Bo Porter before the Astros named the longtime coach their manager. Mike Lowell's name has come up in connection with the Marlins, but he won't be considered, according to the Miami Herald.

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