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MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia

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After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.

The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.

And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.

As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.

It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)

Phillies Announce Dave Dombrowski As President Of Baseball Operations

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The Phillies got their guy. Loudly on the hunt for a veteran executive – for a personality big enough to match their sense of urgency – the Philadelphia Phillies coaxed two-time World Series winner Dave Dombrowski to leave his position in Nashville and answer the call.

The news broke yesterday, but today, the organization formally announced Dombrowski as their first-ever President of Baseball Operations. He signed for four years and $20MM, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca points out, that’s the most money handed out to a free agent so far this winter.

Dombrowski comes heavily decorated. He won the World Series in 1997 with the Marlins and in 2018 with the Red Sox. He built two pennant winners with the Detroit Tigers (2006, 2012). He has 31 total years of experience running an MLB franchise, and he’s the only general manager in MLB history to lead three different franchises to the World Series. That’s quite the feather in his cap. He’s also the only two-time winner of Baseball America’s Executive of the Year award.

In the press release, managing partner John Middleton said this of Dombrowski:

This is a great day for the Philadelphia Phillies. David Dombrowski is one of the most accomplished executives this great game has ever seen, and we are thrilled to welcome him to Philadelphia. Between David and Joe Girardi, we now have two of the best people in place to set us on the path back to where we want to be, and that is the postseason and contending for world championships.

Interestingly, the press release also made special mention of Dombrowski’s track record of success in the draft, listing Rondell White, Cliff Floyd, Charles Johnson, Cameron Maybin, Mark Kotsay, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Nicholas Castellanos, Josh Beckett, Andrew Miller, and Rick Porcello among the standouts. That’s noteworthy particularly in the context of previous comments made by team president Andy MacPhail back in October when they began their search, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. :

Our R&D department has been good with one exception. I’m just being blunt. I look at Tampa. They’re able to unlock the hidden value or potential in minor-league players that have been around a while that they recognize something that we’re not picking up on yet. I think that’s one thing that this franchise needs to improve on. Our R&D needs to obviously help with that.

Specifically, the Phillies were seeking someone with a track record of success in player evaluation. For more insight into Philadelphia’s thinking, let’s take a cue from Brad Pitt in Moneyball: What’s the problem? As Gelb helpfully reminds us, at the time of former GM Matt Klentak’s reassignment, Middleton said this:

I think the problem the Phillies have had for a hundred years is they don’t evaluate talent well.

Dombrowski’s win-now mentality is getting headline treatment, with assumptions being made about the free agent dollars Dombrowki will spend and the prospects he will trade away. The Phillies themselves, however, are underlining some other aspects of Dombrowski’s resume. Player evaluation plays a role in every aspect of roster building, of course. Still, it’s intriguing that system building has been at the forefront of Philly’s messaging in the early going.

Dombrowski will answer questions from the media this afternoon.

Latest On Phillies Front Office Search

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The future of the Phillies front office has been in flux since general manager Matt Klentak stepped down in the first week of October. Since that time, president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail and interim GM Ned Rice have been leading day-to-day operations, an arrangement that reportedly could continue through the end of next season.

However, Philadelphia expects to begin interviewing potential candidates next week, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic. It seems the Phillies are planning to make a pair of hires: a president of baseball operations to lead the department, and a new general manager to serve as that individual’s top lieutenant.

That kind of arrangement has become increasingly common throughout the sport, but the Phillies are leaving open the possibility of taking a less typical approach to the hiring process. The Phils would unsurprisingly prefer to hire the team president before turning to the GM search, Stark notes. However, that’s not a mandate, as Stark suggests the organization could hire the GM first if circumstances dictate.

That’d be an odd course of action- one would think any incoming president would want to have a say in the GM hiring process- but it’s apparently not out of the question. It also remains possible, Stark says, the organization elects to halt the hiring process midway through and allow the MacPhail-Rice pairing to continue to run the club next year. (MacPhail is generally expected to retire after the 2021 season, but it’s possible a more immediate restructure leads him to step away sooner).

Assuming the Phillies do commit to finalizing the front office this winter, they could opt to pursue a number of different candidates. The organization is leaving open the possibility of pursuing high-profile executives with past experience leading baseball ops, as well as considering “rising stars” types similar to recent Angels hire Perry Minasian, Stark adds. There remains plenty of uncertainty regarding the Phils’ ultimate course of action, but it seems the process will kick into gear in the coming days.

NL Notes: Giants, Phillies, Free Agent Spending

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Everything is on the table for the Giants this winter, per the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly. It’s a different kind of offseason this year, but the constant is that teams always need to build their depth, says Giants President Farhan Zaidi. Baggarly provides this quote from Zaidi, who says, “Look, we’re in a big market. We consider ourselves a signature franchise. When you look at that group of teams, there’s always an expectation for how they might act.”

Zaidi and the Giants view themselves as being in a transition phase, and many in the industry would agree. At the same time, as Zaidi points out, they’re coming off a season in which they just missed the playoffs. If a below-market opportunity jumps out at Zaidi, the Giants could end up as buyers in free agency, even at the upper levels for the right guy, it seems. But there’s not likely to be a quick-strike headline for San Francisco. Broadly speaking, Zaidi predicts a slow-moving market this winter.

The Phillies expect to be slow-movers as well, per the Athletic’s Meghan Montemurro. Team President Andy MacPhail – who for now remains the top decision-maker in the baseball ops department – said in reference to the Phillies’ plans for free agency (per Montemurro), “…the likelihood of a significant add, I think, in the short term or even midterm is not very high.” MacPhail also generally observes that teams are more concerned with subtraction than addition at this point in the offseason. Even in a normal year, trimming payroll where possible and maximizing open spots on 40-man rosters predates most additions in free agency. This year more than most, however, teams have prepped the baseball-sphere for the prospect of limited spending.

By MacPhail’s account, Philly plans on being one of the more judicious clubs this winter. That’s not great news for those hoping to see J.T. Realmuto return to the Keystone State. Still, his statement leaves some room for a bigger move down the line. As Zaidi pointed out, it’s likely to be a slow market this winter on the whole. MacPhail could simply be prepping the fanbase not to expect a big signing, as he says, in the short-or-near-term. Long-term, the Phillies could potentially jump to the buyers column. Realmuto, however, is one of the free agents likelier to sign on the earlier side, given his standing as the top catcher on the market.

Latest On Phillies’ Front Office, J.T. Realmuto

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Phillies president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail met with media members (including Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic, Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) on Friday to discuss some of the key issues surrounding the club. For one, MacPhail had to address his own future with the franchise. The longtime executive confirmed that 2021 will be his last year in the majors, adding that it’s possible he’ll step down before the season ends.

For now, MacPhail is part of the Phillies’ search for a new front office leader. He doesn’t object to hiring a different president of baseball ops, though it may be quite some time before the Phillies bring in a new general manager to replace the reassigned Matt Klentak. In fact, it’s “likely” that interim GM Ned Rice will remain in the role in 2021, Zolecki relays.

No matter who holds the GM spot next year, Phillies fans surely want to see improvement after a ninth straight season without a playoff berth. They may be able to bolster their roster this winter via the open market, but MacPhail indicated that “he doesn’t expect any big moves in free agency until later in the process,” Lauber tweets. That could bode poorly for the Phillies’ chances of re-signing their No. 1 free agent, catcher J.T. Realmuto, who’s arguably the best position player available and someone who could sign one of the richest deals ever for someone at his position. Philadelphia does still have interest in bringing back, as you’d expect, though it seems unlikely to happen should the team avoid an aggressive offseason.

Phillies Notes: MacPhail, Front Office, Payroll

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As Andrew McCutchen celebrates his 34th birthday today, let’s check out some Phillies-related items…

  • Though owner John Middleton recently gave a strong public endorsement to team president Andy MacPhail, multiple sources tell the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber that Middleton would prefer MacPhail either retires from his post a year early, or at least steps away from baseball operations duties.  Such a move would allow for a smoother transition for a front office that is searching for a new GM after Matt Klentak stepped down from the post, as a new president of baseball operations and GM could both be hired in tandem, as opposed to hiring a general manager now and then a new president next offseason.  Staying with the combo of MacPhail as president and interim GM Ned Rice through 2021 “would seem anathema to Middleton” considering that he clearly feels changes are needed for the Phils.
  • Of the 20 Phillies players who are free agents, arbitration-eligible, or controlled by club options for 2021, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb figures only three (arb-eligibles Rhys Hoskins, Zach Eflin, and Andrew Knapp) “are locks to return” next season.  Any of the other 17 could conceivably be non-tendered or let walk depending on what kind of budgetary cuts are coming to the Philadelphia payroll, or how the Phils might need to reallocate funds to pursue other needed roster upgrades.  J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are among that group of 17 players, so others could be let go to free up the funds necessary to re-sign at least one of that duo.

Latest On Phillies GM Search

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The Yankees have a couple of  “assistant GM-types” that the Phillies might look into if they decide not to stick with interim GM Ned Rice for the 2021 season, Jon Heyman posits on his new podcast with Tony Gwynn Jr. There still remains a decent chance that the Phillies give Rice the year in the GM seat, however.

If they do decide to look outside the organization, Heyman submits someone like Jim Hendry – not an AGM, but a special assistant to GM Brian Cashman – to receive consideration from the Phillies to fill their GM vacancy. It’s been a bit since Hendry’s name surfaced for a GM opening, but the former Cubs’ executive does have ties to Team President Andy MacPhail, as well as manager Joe Girardi. MacPhail promoted Hendry to the GM role in Chicago way back in 2002. He served as the Cubs’ GM until after the 2011 season. He was hired on as a special assistant to Brian Cashman in 2012.

Hendry’s relationship with Girardi could prove an important element, and that holds for any new candidate coming into Philadelphia. Girardi is respected in the organization and heading into just the second year of his deal. For the Phillies to hit the ground running with a new lead man in the baseball ops department, they would prefer to do so without having to reset in the dugout yet again.

Yankees Vice President of Baseball Operations Tim Naehring and Vice President of Domestic Amateur Scouting Damon Oppenheimer are two other names that Heyman suggests the Phillies might take a look at from the Yankees front office.

Latest On Phillies’ General Manager Transition

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Phillies GM Matt Klentak stepped down on Saturday after five seasons running baseball operations in Philadelphia. Despite making an impact on the hot stove with significant free agent spending on stars like Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Didi Gregorius, and Andrew McCutchen. The trade for J.T. Realmuto brought in the premier catcher in the game, one of just a couple of  backstops capable of managing a staff while wielding a middle-of-the-order bat. He also brought in presumptive third baseman of the present-and-future Alec Bohm with the third overall pick of the 2018 draft.

Klentak’s record wasn’t spotless. The David Robertson signing fell apart due to injuries. He doled out large sums to Michael Saunders and Carlos Santana, only to move on after disappointing starts. First overall draft pick in 2016 Mickey Moniak hasn’t developed into a superstar as one might expect from a 1-1 pick.

But the darkest mark on Klentak’s record was a failure to make the playoffs during his five years in charge. The Phillies have the second-longest playoff drought in the game. Despite many successful moves, the Phillies disappointed year after year, leaving principal owner John Middleton somewhat befuddled. As successful as Realmuto has been for the Phillies, for example, Sixto Sánchez’s success has to be particularly galling. One of the pieces used to acquire Realmuto from Miami, Sánchez helped the Marlins leapfrog the Phillies into the playoffs this year. Realmuto’s time in Philadelphia, meanwhile, could already be reaching an end – he’s an unrestricted free agent this winter.

With Klentak demoted, the Phillies are considering their options for how to fill out the head of the baseball operations department moving forward. They could look to hire a head of baseball operations as well as a GM. They could wait to bring in a head of baseball ops until Team President Andy MacPhail retires at the end of 2021, per The Athletic’s Matt Gelb. MacPhail’s impending retirement is very much a part of Middelton’s decision-making.

The pandemic complicates all significant hiring decisions, of course, and it could be some time until the Phillies make a final decision. There was a roughly 6-week hiring process to bring in Klentak, but his replacement could take more than a year to find, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). 37-year-old Ned Rice has been elevated to the interim GM position for now, and it’s on the table that Rice could serve in the role for the entirety of next season.

Middleton spoke highly of Rice, saying in a quote provided by Gelb, “One of the reasons that we chose Ned is because he has by far the most breadth of experience in the organization other than Matt and frankly the most depth as well. For example, he put together the presentation for Bryce Harper when we flew out to Las Vegas the first time. He was involved with all the meetings, discussing strategy and tactics of when to make offers and what the offer should be, analyzing the offers that Scott (Boras) put out and how we should respond. He has significant experience, and his input in that process is invaluable.”

On the surface the process might feel disjointed, but it’s entirely within the realm of reasonable solutions for the Phillies to take their time in deciding the management structure moving forward, especially considering the complicated nature of a mixed-bag tenure like Klentak’s. Middleton remains the unequivocal head of the organization and traditional concerns about continuity and organizational clarity are mitigated somewhat because of the presence of MacPhail and Rice. More important for the Phillies is that whoever comes in next has a clear plan in place with benchmarks that Middleton can use to measure the success of the program.

Phillies Reportedly Extended Klentak, MacPhail Prior To Season

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The Phillies never announced contractual lengths for president Andy MacPhail or general manager Matt Klentak upon hiring the pair to spearhead the organization’s baseball operations department, and Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that the team was similarly quiet about a pair of previously unannounced extensions for that duo. According to Gelb, MacPhail signed a three-year extension back in 2017 that runs through the 2021 season, while Klentak was extended through the 2022 campaign four months ago.

The extension for Klentak came on the heels of an offseason in which he aggressively reshaped the Phillies’ lineup by signing Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen while acquiring several players via trade (headlined by J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura). The Philadelphia offense has improved in 2019, though probably not quite to the extent the front office had hoped. Phillies hitters have posted a combined .245/.323/.423 batting line and scored 460 runs — up from .236/.319/.390 and 411 runs scored at this same point in 2018.

Philadelphia’s defense has seemingly improved as well. After turning in a stunning -146 mark in Defensive Runs Saved and a -8.0 UZR/150 in 2018, the Phillies have logged a collective +3 DRS and +5.1 UZR/150 to this point in the 2019 campaign.

Unfortunately for the Phillies, the pitching staff has gone in the opposite direction. The offseason efforts put into bullpen acquisitions have been torpedoed by a near-unparalleled level of injury among the Phillies’ relief corps. David Robertson, for instance, has been baseball’s bullpen iron man over the past decade. However, since signing a two-year deal with the Phillies due in no small part to that durability, he’s been limited to 6 2/3 innings as a result of elbow troubles. High-priced bullpen pickups from the 2017-18 offseason like Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek haven’t been able to stay healthy in 2019. Promising younger arms like Seranthony Dominguez (UCL injury), Victor Arano (arthroscopic elbow surgery) and Edubray Ramos (shoulder impingement) have also fallen victim to injury.

As one might expect of a team that has essentially lost an entire bullpen’s worth of solid MLB arms, Philadelphia relievers are tied for the game’s fifth-worst ERA (4.97). But the more alarming struggles have arguably come in a rotation that went largely unaddressed in the offseason. While the modest price the club paid to extend ace Aaron Nola still looks like a shrewd move, the 26-year-old hasn’t been as dominant in 2019 as he was in 2018. Jake Arrieta, meanwhile, is pitching through a bone spur in his elbow with understandably mixed results. Zach Eflin has been solid but not spectacular. Beyond that trio, the Phillies have received a combined ERA well north of 5.00 from the group of Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and Jerad Eickhoff.

The end result is a Phillies club that has underachieved to the point of falling 8.5 games back of the division-leading Braves. Philadelphia is still three games over .500 and holds a half-game lead over Milwaukee for the second spot in the NL Wild Card race, so the season is far from lost. But the quietly extended front office regime will also have its hands full in endeavoring to address some of the flaws that have led to the current predicament. Gelb writes that, to this point, the Phillies “have not displayed an overwhelming sense of urgency” in their efforts to do so, although they’re hardly the only team that has not jumped into action; to this point in the “trading season,” there have only been three deals of even moderate note consummated (Andrew Cashner, Homer Bailey and Martin Maldonado).

The extent to which the Phillies ramp up that level of aggression could well be dependent on the current roster’s play in the next couple of weeks, but it still seems likely that the club will function as a buyer in the next 14 days.

Andy MacPhail On Phillies’ Offseason, 2018 Plans

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Phillies president Andy MacPhail discussed his team’s winter plans in an end-of-season press conference today at Citizens Bank Park.  Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Daily News and Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia (two links) have the details….

  • The Phillies will likely continue to have a “relatively low payroll” in 2018, a year after slightly topping the $100MM in their Opening Day payroll.  With only around $6MM on the books for next season, however, that gives the club plenty of room to spend if necessary.  The team will at least be open to creative spending, as MacPhail said that ownership “did not react extraordinarily well in the beginning” to the news of another low-payroll campaign.  “Ultimately, they’re OK with it with one proviso: that if an opportunity presents itself, we do not exclude it. They understand the program,” MacPhail said.
  • One possibility is that the Phillies could use some of their payroll space to take on bad contracts from other teams.  “Most of you guys have written about how the ’18 (free-agent) class is a little on the light side, all the big guns come out in ’19. It may well be that teams that want to compete in that ’19 arena shed some salary that we won’t anticipate right now in ’18. So we have to keep our eye out for that, as well,” MacPhail said.  The club took on payroll last winter while acquiring Howie Kendrick, Pat Neshek, and Clay Buchholz in trades, and flipped Kendrick and Neshek in midseason trades for prospects.
  • While the rotation needs some serious upgrades, MacPhail hinted that the Phillies were likelier to obtain pitching via trades than in free agency.  “There are times when you’re going to have to dive into that [free agent] pool and just take a risk.  But it’s not my favorite place to be,” the president said.  “We get inundated with stories across the game about how everybody is looking for starting pitching.  ’Just get two quality starters, and we’ll be all set.’ Well, you might as well look for a unicorn at the same time.  It’s tough.  You don’t want to be paying for past performance.”  MacPhail also noted that the possibility exists that the Phils could deal from their farm system to add help for the big league roster.
  • The club hopes to have a new manager hired before the GM Meetings in early November.
  • The Phillies will continue to build and spend money on their analytics staff, which MacPhail mentioned has grown from a one-person department to a 14-person team.  Pitch-framing is one specific area that MacPhail said the Phillies are looking to improve on an organization-wide basis in 2018.  Baseball Prospectus was very unimpressed by the framing abilities of Cameron Rupp and Andrew Knapp, respectively ranking the two Philadelphia catchers 110th and 115th out of 116 MLB catchers.
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