Archives for December 2012

A high-powered offense alone won't punch your ticket to the playoffs, but it certainly helps the cause.  The Yankees (95 wins, 804 runs scored), Rangers (93, 808), and Cardinals (88, 765) found their way to the postseason thanks in large part to their top-five offenses.  Meanwhile, the five lowest scoring teams of 2012 all missed the playoffs and averaged out to 69.2 wins on the year. 

We'll take a look at those bottom five teams and see what they've done to improve their offenses so far this offseason.  Team name links go to a summary of the teams' moves on MLBTR's Transaction Tracker and 2012 run totals are in parentheses.  For reference, the average MLB team scored roughly 705 runs this past season.

• Astros (583) – The Astros, along with the Mariners, finished in the offensive cellar two years in a row.  Houston's main upgrade to their offense came with the signing of Carlos Pena to a one-year, $2.9MM deal with $1.4MM in incentives.  Pena has been an offensive force in years past, but struggled mightily at the plate in 2012 with a .197/.330/.354 slash line, a career-high 182 strikeouts, and just 19 homers – his lowest total in a healthy season since 2003.
• Marlins (609) – Some expected the Marlins to make a play for Alex Rodriguez in an effort to bolster their offense, but their massive November trade with Toronto made it clear that those kinds of acquisitions weren't in the cards.  The deal shipped Jose Reyes out of town and brought back Adeiny Hechavarria, a 23-year-old shorstop who has promise but doesn't project to do much offensively.  Miami signed Placido Polanco to a one-year, $2.75MM contract, but he'll have to improve from his .281/.330/.356 batting line over the last three years to make a big impact.
• Cubs (613) – The Cubs spent the bulk of their money on pitching but they also made a few low-cost signings to re-tool their offense.  Theo Epstein & Co. signed Nate Schierholtz to a one-year, $2.25MM deal, plucking him away from other suitors such as the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles, and Mets.  Another strong year from Alfonso Soriano would help propel Chicago's offense, but the Cubs may eat a big portion of the $36MM owed to him to get his salary off of the books and get a solid prospect in return.
• Mariners (619) – Last week, Seattle shipped left-hander Jason Vargas to the Angels for first baseman Kendrys Morales.  The 29-year-old posted a .273/.320/.467 batting line with 22 home runs in 522 plate appearances for the Angels in 2012 after missing the entire 2011 campaign with a leg injury.  The M's also picked up Raul Ibanez last week on a one-year, $2.75MM deal and signed Jason Bay to a low-risk $1MM contract.
• Dodgers (637) – The Dodgers won't be lacking in firepower in 2013 thanks to their blockbuster trade with the Red Sox in August.  Adrian Gonzalez admitted that he was pressing last season as he looked to adjust to a new team and market.  Carl Crawford will be back in action after missing the bulk of 2012 and will join Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to form a tremendously strong starting outfield. 

Last week, the Associated Press published 2012 payrolls for all 30 teams based on information sent by the clubs to the commissioner's office. Here are the parameters as described by the AP:

The figures are for 40-man rosters and include salaries and pro-rated shares of signing bonuses, earned incentive bonuses, non-cash compensation, buyouts of unexercised options, and cash transactions. In some cases, parts of salaries that are deferred are discounted to reflect present-day values.

In total, MLB teams spent $3,149,424,396, up from $2,999,557,280 last year.  The average payroll was just under $105MM and teams like the Cubs, Mets, White Sox, and Twins all came in around that number.  The Yankees had the highest payroll in baseball, as they have in every year since 1998, but the 2013 Dodgers will knock them from that perch.  The AL West champion A's had the lowest payroll of anyone in 2011 with a sub-$60MM tally.  Speaking of the AL West, it should be noted that the Astros are still counted as NL Central members for 2012.  Here's a break down of the spending by league and division with last year's averages in parentheses..

American League: $111.7MM per team ($104.7MM)

• AL East: $128.9MM per team ($119.6MM)
• AL Central: $96.3MM per team ($90.5MM)
• AL West: $109.6MM per team ($103.9MM)

National League: $99.1MM per team ($95.8MM)

• NL East: $111.5MM per team ($105.9MM)
• NL Central: $89.4MM per team ($90.8MM)
• NL West: $98.3MM ($88.5MM)

There are more than 40 unsigned free agent relievers at this stage of the offseason, but not all of those relievers are strikeout guys.  To zero in on the strikeout artists left on the market, let's take a look at the leaders in K/9 and K% in 2012.

You're probably familiar with K/9, which is strikeouts per nine innings.  The league average was 7.56 K/9 last season, and Craig Kimbrel led all qualified relievers with 16.66 K/9.  The second metric, K%, measures the percentage of batters faced that the pitcher struck out.  The league average was 19.8% in 2012, and Kimbrel also topped that mountain at 44.0%.

The K/9 and K% leaderboards are predictably similar, but not identical.  More efficient pitchers will have a higher K%, even though they may have a lower K/9 than their baserunner-prone counterparts.  Here are lists of unsigned free agent relievers with above average K/9 and K% rates.

Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9)

1. Jason Frasor – 10.92
2. Mike Gonzalez – 9.84
3. Manny Parra – 9.36
4. Hisanori Takahashi – 9.30
5. Brandon Lyon – 9.30
6. Vicente Padilla – 9.18
7. Rafael Soriano – 9.18
8. Francisco Rodriguez – 9.00
9. Juan Cruz – 8.33
10. Matt Lindstrom – 7.66
11. Kevin Gregg – 7.63

Just missing the cut was Rays left-hander J.P. Howell, who posted a 7.51 K/9 rate in 2012 to go along with a 3.04 ERA and 3.9 BB/9.  Howell has drawn interest from the Nationals, Phillies, Cubs, Mariners, and Rangers this winter.

Strikeouts Per Batter Faced (K%)

1. Frasor – 27.8%
2. Gonzalez – 25.8%
3. Soriano – 24.7%
4. Takahashi – 24.5%
5. Lyon – 24.4%
6. Rodriguez – 23.6%
7. Padilla – 23.4%
8. Parra – 22.3%
9. Howell – 20.7%
10. Cruz – 20.4%
11. Lindstrom – 20.0%

That's a bit of redemption for Howell, as he posted an above-average K% while Gregg (18.5%) missed the mark.  That essentially means that Howell was more efficient and struck out a higher percentage of the batters he faced.  Chad Durbin was just left on the outside-looking-in with a 19.1% posting.

Special thanks to Mike Axisa, who compiled a similar post last year.

MLB teams combined for 4,934 total homers in 2012, their most since 2009 (5,042). Power remains a hard-to-find commodity, and all you need to do is look at the big multiyear contracts signed by Josh Hamilton (43 HR), B.J. Upton (28 HR), and Nick Swisher (24 HR) for evidence. Power is at a premium.

Homers and slugging percentage are just two measures of power though. Isolated power, or ISO, is slugging percentage minus batting average, so it tells us extra bases per at-bat. Hamilton led all qualified hitters with a .292 ISO in 2012 while Edwin Encarnacion and Miguel Cabrera (both .277 ISO) were tied for second. Jamey Carroll and Ben Revere tied for dead last in MLB with a .049 ISO this past season. The MLB average was a .151 ISO in 2012, and here are the nine unsigned free agents who posted a better than league average ISO this summer (min. 200 PA).

1. Scott Hairston – .241 ISO
2. Adam LaRoche – .238
3. Luke Scott & Travis Hafner – both .210
4. Kelly Shoppach – .192
5. Yuniesky Betancourt – .172
6. Brandon Inge – .165
7. Miguel Olivo – .159
8. Scott Rolen – .153

Hairston and LaRoche are both in line for multiyear contracts this winter while Rolen is still undecided about retirement. Scott and Hafner would provide some left-handed thump to a team unwilling to spend huge dollars on a DH-type, and both Shoppach and Olivo would make sense for clubs seeking a backup catcher who can hit the ball out of the park on occasion. Betancourt and Inge may have to settle for minor league contracts.