Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Astros are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Jason Castro (3.104): $2.2MM
- Trevor Crowe (3.065): $700K
Castro, the tenth overall pick in 2008, put together a breakout campaign this year with 18 home runs, a .350 on-base percentage, and an All-Star nod. The Astros could look into a team-friendly extension. Three catchers in Castro's service class have signed three-year deals in the $8-9MM range, though two of them were in 2010.
Crowe, drafted 14th overall by the Indians in '05, signed a minor league deal with the Astros last November. His contract was purchased in May, but he missed over two months with a shoulder injury. The 29-year-old outfielder did not impress with the bat, and he received regular playing time with 103 plate appearances in September. In mid-September, Crowe told Kerry Eggers of the Portland Tribune, "I want to be back next year. I think I'll be back, but we'll see it goes." While Crowe is a candidate to be non-tendered, he could re-sign on a minor league deal if that happens.
