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Yankees Won’t Wait For Cano Before Pursuing Other Free Agents

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Reports have indicated that Robinson Cano is willing to wait until January to get the deal that he's looking for, but don't expect the Yankees to exercise similar patience. Yankees president Randy Levine told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News that the team is interested in five or six free agents and doesn't plan on waiting for resolution on the Cano front before making offers:

"We're not waiting around," Levine said. "If guys start to come off the board, we're going to sign them, which will affect the amount of money we have left for other players including [Cano]."

The Yankees have been connected to Jhonny Peralta, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Stephen Drew recently, and Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger quotes Levine as saying that the team is engaged in talks with some of its own free agents as well. Presumably, that would include the likes of Hiroki Kuroda and Curtis Granderson.

McCullough points to an MLB Network Radio appearance by agent Brodie Van Wagenen over the weekend in which Van Wagenen pointed out the "additional business value that comes with an association with a player of that magnitude" and called Cano a "transformative" player. However, according to McCullough, the Yankees don't feel that Cano has the same level of marketability that stalwarts Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera have brought to the table.

McCullough adds that the Yankees are also skeptical that much of a market exists for Cano at this time, given his asking price. Indeed, Cano's camp couldn't have been thrilled to lose a suitor when the Dodgers inked Cuban second baseman Alexander Guerrero to a four-year, $28MM contract. While some have speculated that they could still enter the fray, Yahoo's Tim Brown tweeted earlier today that the Dodgers are still not involved in the Cano market.

The Mets had a meeting with Van Wagenen and Jay-Z last night, but reports have indicated that they won't be serious players for his services. Asked by Feinsand if the Mets could sign Cano away from the Yankees, Levine replied: "Yes. For $300MM they can … We want Robbie Cano back. We think the offer we made him is very competitive and it shows that we want him to be a Yankee for a long time and be the face of the franchise. But until they come down from the $300 million, there's really nothing to talk about."

Mets Sign Brandon Allen

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Here are today's minor moves from around the league…

  • The Mets have signed first baseman Brandon Allen to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training, the team announced on Twitter. Allen slashed .267/.347/.478 with 17 homers as a 27-year-old with the Padres' Triple-A affiliate in 2013. Once regarded as one of the best prospects in the White Sox organization, Allen has produced just a .203/.290/.375 slash line and 12 homers in 389 Major League plate appearances between the D-Backs, A's and Rays. He is represented by SFX.

Cuban Shortstop Arruebarruena Defects

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Promising Cuban shortstop Erisbel Barbaro Arruebarruena has left his home country to try and sign with a major league team, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America.  Arruebarruena is known for his tremendously sharp defense at the shortstop position, drawing comparisons to Jose Iglesias in the field.

Arruebarruena, 23, has played in Serie Nacional for six seasons, so his bonus will not be subject to the international bonus pools. MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez tweets that Arruebarruena has established residency in Haiti. He will now need to be cleared to sign by the U.S. government and MLB.

Earlier this year, Baseball America ranked Arruebarruena the No. 10 World Baseball Classic prospect not signed with an MLB team.  Badler writes that the shortstop is a below-average runner but he makes up for it with a quick first step and solid instincts that give him good range.  Scouts have called Arruebarruena a magician in the field, but he'll have to step things up at the plate.

In related news, Cuban reporter Ibrahim Rojas tells MLBTR that 19-year-old pitcher Javier Gonzalez, 22-year-old pitcher Jorge Hernandez, and 25-year-old outfielder Dayron Varona have left Cuba.

Shaun Marcum Expects To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Shaun Marcum's Mets career came to a close in July of this year, when he had surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS).  Marcum's recovery is progressing well, agent Rex Gary tells MLBTR, and he'll be on his normal offseason throwing program in the coming months.  The righty, 32 in December, is expected to be ready for spring training.

TOS is a condition caused when the blood vessels or nerves between the collarbone and first rib become compressed.  In Marcum's case, numbness and coldness in his pitching hand was affecting his ability to grip the baseball, Mets assistant GM John Ricco told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.

Limited to 124 innings in 2012 due to an elbow injury, Marcum signed a one-year deal with the Mets for $4MM guaranteed in January of this year.  He tossed 78 1/3 innings for the Mets in 2013, posting a 5.29 ERA.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jim Johnson

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Over the next few months, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Despite a slow start due to an awful May, Jim Johnson put together another big year as the Orioles' closer. He led the league in saves for the second consecutive season, again hitting the 50-save mark. Entering his fourth year of arbitration, Johnson looks poised to get a big raise on his $6.5MM salary, and my arbitration salary model projects him at $10.8MM for a solid $4.3MM raise. Johnson-JimLast year, Johnson set the record for a closer with his service time during his third year through the arbitration process, earning a $3.875MM raise on top of his $2.625MM salary.

It is difficult to find comparable pitchers for Johnson, because It is very rare for closers to go year-to-year for as long as he has. In fact, in the last seven years (for which I have collected arbitration data), there have only been 20 relievers to reach arbitration eligibility with at least 5 years and 120 days of service time. Johnson has 5 years and 165 days of service time entering this offseason.

The largest raise that any reliever has gotten in this service class for the last seven years was in 2012 when Brandon League got a $2.75MM raise. He only had 37 platform-year saves, far fewer than Johnson’s 50. League also had a 2.79 ERA, which is roughly in line with Johnson’s 2.94 this past season. Since their other numbers are similar, it would seem that League is the absolute floor for what Johnson’s raise could be.

In general, raises through arbitration do not seem to vary much with performance before the platform year for players who are re-entering arbitration. First-time eligibles do get paid for career performances too, but second-time, third-time, and fourth-time eligibles generally get paid based on platform seasons. However, this is not entirely the rule for closers. Pre-platform saves seems to be correlated with arbitration outcomes even after accounting for other factors. I suspect that this may have more to do with reputational effects rather than directly considering the save numbers of past seasons, but either way, this gives Johnson a substantial advantage over League, who only had eight pre-platform saves going into his 2012 arbitration discussion. Johnson had 72 already, thanks to his 51-save 2012. This suggests that Johnson is likely to crush the previous record.

Few other pitchers in Johnson’s service class are even all that close. The next biggest raise went to Santiago Casilla in 2013, who only had 25 saves in his platform season and 12 saves beforehand, and no one else even topped a $2MM raise or 20 saves. League would appear to be the only reliever in his fourth year of eligibility who could even be in the discussion.

Dipping into a slightly larger group and looking at anyone who was entering arbitration eligibility for their third or fourth time, there still aren’t many comparable pitchers. Ironically, the most similar player in the last service class was Johnson himself, who broke the third-time eligible reliever record with his $3.875MM raise last year. His 51 saves and 2.49 ERA in 2012 are actually pretty comparable to his 50 saves and 2.94 ERA in 2013. I doubt that Johnson in a previous service class would make logical sense as a comparable for Johnson this time around, but it does show that raises in the $4MM region are pretty reasonable to expect.

Heath Bell got a $3.5MM raise in his third year of arbitration eligibility (with 5 years and 99 days of service time) back in 2011, when he was coming off 47 saves and a 1.93 ERA. Johnson could argue that is comparable but inferior, and with three years of inflation, something north of $4MM is reasonable.

Jose Valverde could come up as well—with 5 years of service time and 44 platform-year saves, he got a $3.3MM raise back in 2009. Francisco Rodriguez had 40 saves when he entered arbitration with 5 years of 15 days of service time the year before that, and he got a $2.95MM raise.

Johnson’s case is unique because of the lack of comparables, but it seems like a very reasonable argument for “significantly north of $3MM” could be made. While I am not sure he will necessarily hit the $4.3MM mark, I suspect he will get close and the Orioles should definitely budget for somewhere around $10-11MM of salary for their closer in 2014.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cano’s Agents Called Meeting With Mets

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10:04am: The Mets told Cano's camp prior to the meeting that the chances of a deal were very slim, but they didn't want to say "no" off the bat, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. ESPN's Adam Rubin tweets that the Mets took the meeting primarily as a means of getting to know a new agent, Jay-Z.

7:43am: The agents for free agent second baseman Robinson Cano called a meeting with the Mets to discuss the player's free agency Monday night at a Manhattan hotel, according to Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post.  Jay Z, Brodie Van Wagenen, and Juan and Desiree Perez were on hand to represent Cano, while Jeff Wilpon, Sandy Alderson and John Ricco attended for the Mets.

The two sides did not talk numbers, writes Andy Martino of the New York Daily News.  According to Martino, the meeting contained a "Boras-like" presentation, in that it relied on multiple printed reports, visual elements and other tools.

Last week at the GM Meetings, Alderson told reporters the Mets are unlikely to be in the mix for an additional $100MM+ player, to avoid concentrating a large portion of the payroll in a small number of players.  The Mets don't seem to have the payroll flexibility to add Cano, especially with their need for multiple outfielders, possibly a shortstop, and some relief help.

Regardless of the Mets' ability (or inability) to sign Cano, it makes sense for his camp to explore all options and meet with as many teams as possible. Cano is facing a limited market, so it's imperative that Van Wagenen and Jay-Z drum up some competitors for the Yankees, who are currently looking more in the $190-210MM price range.

Free Agent Profile: Robinson Cano

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Robinson Cano made headlines early in the regular season by leaving super-agent Scott Boras to become the first client to be represented by rapper and entrepreneur Jay-Z's startup sports agency — Roc Nation Sports. Jay-Z is partnering with CAA in the Roc Nation Sports effort, and CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen will be handling much of the negotiation process this offseason, though Jay-Z himself is now officially an MLBPA-certified player representative as well. While his agency news may have gotten the headlines in April, now that we're into the offseason, it'll be his historic contract that garners attention.

Strengths/Pros

Cano is one of the game's best all-around players, plain and simple. He led all free agent position players in wins above replacement (6.9 fWAR, 7.6 rWAR) due to his combination of offense and strong defensive contributions at a premium, up-the-middle position.  Cano-Robinson

Cano batted .314/.383/.516 this season, earning his fourth consecutive All-Star bid and fourth consecutive Silver Slugger award. His fifth-place finish in the AL MVP voting marked his fifth consecutive season receiving votes for the award and fourth straight season of finishing sixth or better.

Cano's 142 wRC+ dating back to 2010 is the fourth-highest in Major League Baseball, and his 25.4 fWAR in that time trails only Miguel Cabrera. In terms of more traditional numbers, he's averaged 107 RBIs and 98 runs scored per season over that same time. He hits for power, averaging 28 homers per season since 2009, and has hit below .300 just twice in his Major League career (including a .297 effort in his rookie season).

Cano's defense slipped a bit in 2013, but his glove is generally regarded as a positive. UZR/150 pegged him for +1.3 runs above average this season, while The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric pegged him at +6. Those are solid numbers, but consider that he was at +10.7 (UZR/150) and +15 (DRS) in 2012. DRS, in particular, raves about Cano, crediting him for +38 runs dating back to 2010.

One of the biggest concerns over the course of a mega-contract like the one Cano figures to sign is health, but that hasn't been an issue for the Bronx Bombers' keystone man. Cano hasn't been on the disabled list since missing six weeks with a hamstring strain all the way back in 2006, and since that time he's averaged a whopping 160 games per season.

Cano is better against right-handed pitchers than lefties, but his .290/.340/.450 career line against southpaws shows that he's more than capable of handling his own against same-handed pitching. Those who think he's a product of Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch need only look at his .862 career OPS on the road alongside his .858 mark at home to realize that Cano can hit anywhere.

Weaknesses/Cons

Cano will play next season at age 31, making him just one year younger than Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton were when each signed their massive contracts that have all quickly become albatrosses. Cano figures to sign for much closer to the 10 years that Rodriguez and Pujols received than the five years that Hamilton received. His contract will be a colossal risk, and there's little hope that he'll still be playing anywhere close to his current level by the time it completes.

If there's one element of Cano's game that's lacking, it's probably his speed. He's never stolen more than eight bases in a season, has an ugly 57.6 percent success rate in his career and has added significant value on the basepaths just twice in his nine-year career. It's an underrated part of the game that many fans don't look at, but Fangraphs pegged Cano's baserunning at -2 runs this season. That only figures to get worse as he ages.

In 2013, Cano posted his lowest isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) since 2009. His mark of .202 is still excellent for any hitter, let alone a second baseman, but if it's a portent for the decline of his power as he exits his prime years, his value would take a hit going forward. The very fact that a .202 ISO is listed in the "Weaknesses/Cons" section of this post speaks to the elite level of Cano's game.

In one of the least-surprising decisions in recent history, the Yankees made a qualifying offer to Cano, and he promptly rejected it. He'd come at the cost of a draft pick for a new team.

Personal

Cano's father, Jose, was signed by the Yankees in 1980 and briefly pitched in the Majors with the Astros in 1989. Cano's parents named him Robinson after the legendary Jackie Robinson, and he wears No. 24 (Jackie's No. 42 flipped) to this day as a means of honoring that namesake. The Yankees' media guide has nearly a full page dedicated to Cano's philanthropic efforts both in New York and his native Dominican Republic. Cano and his parents established the RC24 Foundation in 2011 — a charity intended to provide hope to sick and underprivileged children in New York and the Dominican Republic. He has also donated nine ambulances and four school buses to his hometown of San Pedro de Macoris. The ambulances were donated in memory of a close friend who died after he was unable to receive immediate medical attention following a motorcycle accident.

Cano was famously benched for a lack of hustle in 2008, but those problems are a thing of the past, hitting coach Kevin Long told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News earlier this year. Long praised Cano's work ethic and offseason training regimen to Feinsand, who also spoke with Cano's World Baseball Classic GM, Moises Alou: "Robby, what a guy. He’s a five, six-tool player. I mean, I knew he was good, but he made my job so easy, with his performance and leadership."

Market

Cano's market could be more limited than any other free agent this season due to his contract demands. In early October, it was reported that Cano and Roc Nation were targeting $305-310MM in guaranteed money, in order to top the maximum value that A-Rod could reach were he to hit all of his incentives. Let me start by stating that I see zero chance of Cano signing the largest contract in history. Those comments were almost certainly a pure negotiation ploy; coming out and saying, "We want $200MM" would have started the discussion far too low.

So what teams could possibly afford Cano? A return to the Yankees still seems the most probable outcome, but in order to extract maximum dollars, Roc Nation/CAA will have to drum up some competition. The Dodgers were a natural landing spot, but they said prior to season's end that they weren't going to pursue Cano, and their four-year, $28MM contract with Cuban second baseman Alexander Guerrero seems indicative that they plan on sticking to that mentality.

Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has spent liberally in the past, proclaiming that he wants to see his team win a World Series in his lifetime. The Tigers have Omar Infante hitting free agency and have issued $200MM guarantees to Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander already. However, with Miguel Cabrera needing an extension in a few seasons, would they risk another annual salary north of $20MM?

The Nationals could be on the periphery, as could the Angels, though their days of dabbling in mega-contracts are likely over for the time being with Pujols and Hamilton on the books. Could the Mets shock the baseball world by using their newfound cash to force a jersey change but keep Cano in New York? They took one meeting with him already, but most media outlets have downplayed them as a serious suitor even in light of that news.

The Rangers are always aggressive spenders, but they already have a logjam of middle infielders with Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler and Jurickson Profar. Still, a trade of Andrus or Profar plus a move to first base or left field for Kinsler to open second base is at least conceivable. Could Jack Zduriencik be so desperate to bring some offense to Seattle that he breaks the $200MM threshold for Cano? The Cubs have the deep pockets and no clear solution at second base, but they've stated that they're not planning on pursuing big fish this winter. The Blue Jays have a need at second base and are clearly in win-now mode. Another big offseason splash would likely rejuvenate their fanbase after a disappointing 2013, but signing Cano would be counterintuitive to GM Alex Anthopoulos' free agent philosophy.

In addition to other free agents, teams in need of help at second base could look to acquire Brandon Phillips as an alternative. Phillips appears to have fallen out of favor in Cincinnati, and while the four years and $50MM remaining on his contract are sizable, that seems like a pittance in comparison to Cano's eventual contract.

Expected Contract

There's little doubt that Cano will sign the richest contract of the offseason, and it seems likely that his representation will set out seeking 10 years. If Cano's price tag were to drop to seven years, I imagine that numerous suitors would emerge. More realistically, the middle ground between teams' comfort levels and Van Wagenen/Jay-Z's demands will probably be met in the form of eight or nine years.

Cano finds himself in a similar situation to that of Prince Fielder heading into the 2012 season — everyone expects a historic contract, but there appears to be a lack of logical suitors. Ultimately, the market came to Fielder and Scott Boras, and Fielder was able to land a nine-year, $214MM contract.

I expect Fielder's contract to be the floor for the Cano camp. Cano figures to shatter the records for longest contract, largest guarantee and largest average annual value for a second baseman. How much will he sign for though? Dating back to 2007, the mean AAV for hitter contracts of at least eight years is $24.44MM. That grouping includes a select quartet of then-elite bats: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Fielder and Mark Teixeira.

That mean AAV would come out to an even $220MM over the course of a nine-year contract or $244.4MM over the course of 10 years. It makes sense to try to top that AAV, and I believe they'll do just that, though not over the course of a 10-year deal. However, a nine-year, $234MM contract would give Cano's camp a nice round number ($26MM annually) and blow Fielder's contract out of the water. It would also top the mean AAV for baseball's most recent mega-deals and establish the second-highest AAV of any such deal as well. As such, that's my prediction for Cano's eventual contract, even if the market has yet to seriously take shape.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Fielder For Kinsler Blockbuster Is Being Discussed

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The Rangers and Tigers are discussing a blockbuster deal that would send Prince Fielder to Texas for Ian Kinsler, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has learned.  One person involved in the talks called it a “possibility.”

The dollar amount of Fielder’s contract isn’t the only potential hurdle in getting such a deal done.  Fielder holds a limited no-trade clause, but it isn’t known if it includes the Rangers.

The Rangers were in the mix for Fielder when he was on the open market a couple years ago before the Tigers signed him to a nine-year, $214MM deal.  Fielder took a step back in 2013, posting a .279/.362/.457 slash line as opposed to the .287/.393/.538 batting line he posted in his previous eight campaigns.  For all of the concern over his conditioning, Fielder sure has been durable – the slugger has missed just one regular season game in the last five seasons. 

Aside from giving Texas a five-time All-Star with a big bat, the deal would have the added benefit of opening up second base for Jurickson Profar.  Kinsler’s name has been on MLBTR quite a bit in recent months thanks to the Rangers’ middle infield logjam and lack of quality second base options available on the open market outside of kingpin Robinson Cano.  The veteran has spent his entire career with Texas, hitting .273/.349/.454 across eight big league seasons.  While not on the level of Fielder’s deal, the 31-year-old has a pretty decent-sized contract himself as he is owed $57MM through 2017.

Quick Hits: Nathan, Bourjos, Yankees, Tejada, Rays

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Joe Nathan agreed with Jim Bowden's suggestions of the Tigers, Angels and Yankees as good fits for his services, the veteran closer told Bowden and Casey Stern on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM.  Nathan said that finding a winning team was more important to him than location, he's prepared to be patient and see how his market develops, and he revealed that his old teammate Torii Hunter was trying to recruit him to come to Detroit.  Tip of the cap to MLB.com's Jason Beck for providing an audio link to Nathan's interview and a partial transcript.

Here's some more news as we wrap up a busy day around baseball…

  • The Phillies have a long-standing interest in Peter Bourjos and would love to have him, but they don't have the young pitching the Angels would want back in a trade, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports.  The Phils would have to get a third team involved to work out a deal, or forget Bourjos entirely and focus on other outfield candidates; Rosenthal suggests Grady Sizemore as a bench possibility.
  • Also from Rosenthal, rival scouts figure the Yankees will make a big push to sign international talent since they're already over the bonus pool limit for international signings and will be penalized anyway.  It's worth noting that Joe Pawlikowski of the River Ave Blues blog believes Rosenthal may have miscalculated some figures and is actually saying the Yankees will overspend during the next international signing period, which opens on July 2, 2014.
  • MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez lists 10 teams who could possibly be trade partners for the Angels in their search for young, controllable pitching.
  • Ruben Tejada's possible grievance against the Mets is just the latest sign of strained relations between the shortstop and the team, and Andy Martino of the New York Daily News figures the two sides are close to parting ways.
  • The Rays plan to rotate Wil Myers, Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce and David DeJesus at DH this season, a move that will help keep the players fresh and also allow the club to save money on signing a designated hitter, Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune writes.
  • Five teams have shown interest in Yuniesky Betancourt as a second or third baseman, agent Alex Esteban tells Sportsnet.ca's Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link).
  • The White Sox aren't used to picking as high as third overall in the amateur draft, MLB.com's Scott Merkin writes, but the club is hoping to use the high pick and larger draft bonus pool to fuel GM Rick Hahn's plan to restock the farm system.

Red Sox Notes: Navarro, Youkilis, Payroll

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Here are a few items about the World Series champs…

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