The Royals and Blue Jays have talked about a trade that would send Billy Butler and prospects to Toronto, The Globe & Mail's Jeff Blair reports (Twitter links). No deal is imminent, however, as Blair says the talks haven't "moved beyond [the] discussion stage."
Butler was rumored to be on the shopping block earlier this winter, especially during the Royals' pursuit of Carlos Beltran. Even with Beltran now a Yankee, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported on Tuesday that the Royals could still be looking to move Butler, and would perhaps then attempt to sign Nelson Cruz. The rationale behind a Butler trade would be to free up payroll space and also free up the Royals' DH spot so a defensively-challenged player like Cruz wouldn't be locked into playing the field every day.
Butler will earn $8MM in 2014 and the Royals hold a $12.5MM option (with a $1MM buyout) on his services for 2015. The 27-year-old slugger hit .289/.374/.412 with 15 homers in 668 PA in 2013, solid numbers that nevertheless represented a step back from the .854 OPS and 21 homers that Butler averaged from 2009-12.
It seems that Toronto wouldn't be able to make a move for Butler until they could unload Adam Lind, the team's incumbent designated hitter. Lind outhit Butler (23 homers, .854 OPS) in 147 fewer PA in 2013, but Lind is three years older, posted subpar numbers from 2010-12 and struggles to hit left-handed pitching, whereas Butler has produced against both lefties and righties. The Pirates showed interest in Lind earlier this offseason but trade talks with the Jays didn't develop.
insert Charlie Brown groan here
Would love to see him with the Jays
I really dislike the idea of trading Butler. The Royals do not have the offense to withstand his loss. And I really don’t think swapping Butler for Cruz is any improvement. Nor do any of the remaining free agents seem like any legitimate upgrade. Even if the Blue Jays include Rasmus in the deal (as I’ve heard his name in rumors recently), I really don’t see the advantage offensively. If you have to trade Butler, at least get major league caliber rotation help (which Toronto does not have to offer).
Butler is a better hitter than Cruz.
Butler is a fan favorite in KC
I don’t understand, why KC would do this?
I mean they would also have to give up a Draft Choice for Cruz to sign him
It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever!
Also, I think you’re going to see Urban Santana re-sign with the Royals.
No one wants to cough up draft choices!
Butler is a better hitter than Cruz.
Butler is a fan favorite in KC
I don’t understand, why KC would do this?
I mean they would also have to give up a Draft Choice for Cruz to sign him
It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever!
Also, I think you’re going to see Urban Santana re-sign with the Royals.
No one wants to cough up draft choices!
Butler AND Prospects?
Don’t you mean Butler for prospects?
You forget, it’s the royals.
Doubt it, actually. The Royals are in win-now mode. They’d probably get an established veteran in return. Probably Lind, Rasums, and Bautista? They were on the block before if I remember correctly. It would be interesting to see what each side would get.
haha lind, rasmus and bautista for butler? your kidding right… in what world do you live in?
PLUS PROSPECTS
Jays are in win mode right now too, why would they trade some of their best hitters for one good hitter and prospects… makes no sense. Unless they sign other players after which I highly doubt since they never sign anyone
The Royals do not have the prospects to trade for Lind, Rasmus, and Bautista. Period. Stop.
Even if Butler and his entire salary are included in the deal.
PLUS PROSPECTS
haha lind, rasmus and bautista for butler? your kidding right… in what world do you live in?
Would be a bad idea for the Royals. Can’t imagine trading Butler PLUS prospects.
If the Royals are sending prospects, I highly doubt it’s to sign Cruz. It’s probably a package to bring in either Encarnacion or Bautista — probably the latter of the two.
Has to be Bautista. Butler PLUS prospects isn’t bringing back Rasmus. With Moose at third it isn’t Encarnacion either.
Exactly my thoughts. I know Encarnacion has been asked about a lot as well as Bautista, but it’s definitely Bautista. Royals want a power hitting OF. Just makes too much sense.
you know it doesn’t really make sense for blue jays, Edwin and bautista are way more valuable even for a Butler plus prospects trade
Jays need pitching, if they were to trade bautista they’d want pitching back, like major league ready pitching
I dont think the royals are into a trade like this, but the royals have ventura who will make a splash this year, he has upside of a #2/3 i really like him.
but blue jays just like royals are in a win now mode and prospects just don’t cut it , we have stromann and Drew that are ready but we need proven pitchers, i dont see royals as a good trading partner for our elite bats
How do i unsubscribe to reply emails??? never knew i was doing that.
i totally agree with you, however, ventura is ready to make a splash in the bigs and the jays seriously consider this trade, maybe we jump in then sign choo? i dont know, all these things im saying i dont think will happen, im just speculating
How do i unsubscribe to reply emails??? never knew i was doing that.
i totally agree with you, however, ventura is ready to make a splash in the bigs and the jays seriously consider this trade, maybe we jump in then sign choo? i dont know, all these things im saying i dont think will happen, im just speculating
but blue jays just like royals are in a win now mode and prospects just don’t cut it , we have stromann and Drew that are ready but we need proven pitchers, i dont see royals as a good trading partner for our elite bats
While I tend to agree with you, Bautista is a much better option than Cruz, especially when he will be less in AAV than Cruz.
True, i agree completely.
Maybe this trade is
Lorenzo Cain
Ventura
Butler
for
Jbats?
again, i dont think it will happen just a deal that i can see both sides making. As a fan though, id hate to see bautista leave :(((( i dont think it will happen i really dont want it to unless we are clearly destroying the trade haha.
That’s absolutely on the right track.. The Royals will have to add in the prospects since Butler only has one year of control left, and getting OF as well as SP depth is probably what they are looking for.
Butler has two years of control left i think.
I thought he was a FA after this season… I may be wrong on that.
I am quite sure he has two options?
Cots Contracts showed just one club option. I think this year is guaranteed and 2015 is the option.
Oh yea, true, makes sense.
Ahh! He has a club option. I apologize.
three way trade for price ??? send the prospects to tampa
I beg to differ, Royals have a few good SP prospects in Ventura, Zimmer and Almonte. Depending on how quickly they believe they could progress could make this a great trade for them. Include a Bubba Starling with one of those pitchers and Butler, could definitely be a win for the Jays. And for what it’s worth, the only thing that Bautista truly has on Butler is the ability to play OF. OBP, SLG, K rate are almost identical.
fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=7399&p…
you know it doesn’t really make sense for blue jays, Edwin and bautista are way more valuable even for a Butler plus prospects trade
Jays need pitching, if they were to trade bautista they’d want pitching back, like major league ready pitching
No
No
pretty silly comment. bautista for butler makes absolutely no sense. this trade only goes through if lind is moved elsewhere. this would probably be either a three team deal or for rasmus and Starters, not bautista.
If they are trying to shed payroll for Cruz they won’t be bringing in either of those two
That’s why I said it wasn’t to sign Cruz. What other player could they be after that would require Butler AND prospects?
Sounding like maybe a three way for it to make sense.
That’s why I said it wasn’t to sign Cruz. What other player could they be after that would require Butler AND prospects?
if the Royals trade for Bautista, you don’t need to sign Cruz.
Almost no chance it’s Bautista since he is significantly more valuable as a hitter and plays multiple positions and is not a liability on the bases. Butler is a good hitter but he has negative value on the bases and on defense.
I agree here. I would have to see someone like Ventura come back to even consider it good for the jays
The Jays don’t have a surplus of valuable OF’s but I think Lind + prospect or something we are not considering like Gose +.
I just dont see it from the royals perspective. I know we dont, but im just thinking that if we trade jbats in this deal (which i dont think we would) its something we would get back,
What do the Royals need most? Jays have a great bullpen, no SP, some fringe Young cheap OF SP depth, very young low A depth and Lind
I am a jays fan so i know what we have. The royals have a great bullpen (probably better than the jays) with a top closer in greg holland. i honestly dont know what they could be discussing to be honest
The Jays don’t have a surplus of valuable OF’s but I think Lind + prospect or something we are not considering like Gose +.
Which is why it is Butler PLUS prospects.
Sure. I completely agree. But that’s also where the prospects come into play. You wouldn’t take Butler/Starling/top SP prospect for Bautista? Butler may be a liability on the basepaths, but his OBP and SLG are right on par with Bautista.
but are we just getting his OBP, SLG etc and not his DH only liability and libility on the basepaths? my point is overall he is no where near bautista no matter how you look at it,
we are in a win now mode so i dont think jays nation would be satisfied with prospect pitching, we have that in our farm system, we need MLB ready pitching
That’s one of the key reasons for the prospects. Bubba Starling and a top SP prospect from them would be light years better for that team with Butler than Bautista — win now mode or not.
i’d be really happy with that trade only if we were in a rebuilding mode , but not right now, we have our core together for next 3 to 4 years and in that we need the best team, i don’t think you can sell that trade to our casual fans who buy tickets for next year and don’t care about the future much
Everyone. I’m not saying that Butler = Bautista. I don’t know how this is getting confused like this. I’m saying Butler + prospects = Bautista. Ventura pitched at the AAA level and some in the big leagues. Who’s to say the Blue Jays don’t think that’s he’s ready for the big show permanently?
Bautista’s worst year in the last 4 generated 3 WAR in 92 games. Butlers career best is 2.9. Bautista’s best is 7.7
Very impressive for only 92 games.
woah goes on to show how crazy this bautista for butler + prospects talk is
That’s because of the defensive value that Bautista brings, which we have already stated. And do you really think Bautista will EVER walk at a 20% rate again?
Sorry. His defense is actually a slight negative. Look at baseball reference. He produced 8.3 oWAR and -.7 dWAR
i knew he wasnt that good of an OF but he was pretty good last year though, his arm alone saves allot of run which i don’t thin dWAR accounts for
I am not sure but people have stopped trying to run on him. Lol
His range is atrocious…
Yes. A full-time DH is going to be much worse in the sabermetric stats of WAR and whatnot. I agree. I’m not at all disputing that fact. Nor am I saying Bulter is even with Bautista. I’d take Bautista over Butler any time, any day. Does not change the fact that getting cost controlled pitching that is ready for the majors (in Ventura), a DH/1B in Butler and other pieces is more valuable than Bautista. Just like the Tigers trading Fister and Fielder away. Were the players they got back better than those two? No, but it filled holes in a cost effective way. And the Tigers are still in a win-now frame of mind as well.
Yeah Bautista is not that good of a defender, at any position. He is an average RF, mostly because of his arm, and would probably be a half decent LF, but never plays there. Don’t really want to see him at 3B anymore, and he can play 1B as well as any half decent athlete can…
now is the time to trade for Butler, coming off a down season.
confused that it’s Buter and prospects, but no mention of who would be going to KC. was this supposed to be Butler FOR prospects?
now is the time to trade for Butler, coming off a down season.
confused that it’s Buter and prospects, but no mention of who would be going to KC. was this supposed to be Butler FOR prospects?
Why would you get rid of Butler and his nice contract for two more years to replace him with Cruz and the stupid contract he wants? I’m a Ranger fan so I don’t get the Royals logic with this.
Why would you get rid of Butler and his nice contract for two more years to replace him with Cruz and the stupid contract he wants? I’m a Ranger fan so I don’t get the Royals logic with this.
Rasmus for Billy Butler and Prospects
If true is a terrible trade for the Royals.
I would hate to see Rasmus traded for Butler. Not that we don’t think Butler is good but Jays fans luv Rasmus.
How is that a terrible trade?
yep definitely makes sense , Rasmus is way more valuable and cheaper than a defensively challenged DH only with moderate power
[removed for not reading hard enough]
Read harder.
Indeed.
In Rogers Center he would have double his HR total
No way. Royals need a right handed, power bat in the corner. It’s Bautista.
Rasmus for Billy Butler and Prospects
Butler would likely come as a secondary deal once the jays first move other pieces, like adam lind, for pitching. He is a high OBP, high AVG guy with excellent RBI power. Very reliable and useful player that every team desires. This would be a great addition to the Jays organization going forward. This addition could even allow the jays to move Encarnacion for that top tier pitcher. great potential here
Adam Lind doesn’t get you anything useful in terms of pitching.
“excellent RBI power”
Which is a thing, apparently…
I think it would be Jose Bautista and lind maybe for butler and a top prospect,
Since the royals could put lind at DH, and could use Bautista’s bat and arm in Right field
And, the jays now have the former hitting couch of the royals, who is familiar with butler, and could use a top pitching prospect from the royals since they are looking for pitching
Only if its multiple good prospects… Bautista>Butler and then just adding lind? makes no sense to me.
I don’t know if the Royals have the type of prospects that would make a swap with BIlly Butler & Bautista as the principles palatable honestly.
Yes they completely do.
Zimmer
Almonte
Ventura
Starling
Mondesi
if the jays can get ventura or zimmer back in a deal id be quite happy. but i really dont want to trade jose bautista unless its a clear cut win for us.
Zimmer is untouchable, but you are right. Royals definitely have the prospects.
I would assume so. Again, i dont want to trade jose bautista at all.
What if it were
Lind + Rasmus for Butler + cain+ventura+another prospect? i dont know, throwing something out there. the royals get their DH back, and a great CF
I dont know, I think its a great time to trade Bautista, because he may start to age soon and his numbers are also declining,
but who knows
For Billy Butler though?
ya but they would also get prospects, which they could flip for a starter there seeking
Id rather do this deal, rasmus is FA after this year and jbats could net us a legit #2 pitcher like a guy like shields (not actually just a pitcher like him) and prolly a prospect. Maybe send him to Philly for Lee or preferably Hamels and then philly adds in something else nice. then toronto can sign choo (wishful thinking, i doubt it) or something like that.
Whatever the feasibility of all that, I doubt that Toronto would want to get in on either of those pitchers considering their remaining salaries owed.
We could probably get the phillies to bring the salary down a bit, i mean they would be getting jbats. but a Legit pitcher is something we need and dont have.
That’s the thing, the Royals don’t want a DH….otherwise they would keep Butler. Butler and Cain and Ventura for Rasmus is crazy talk.
Kyle Zimmer & Yordano Ventura are nice pieces but I don’t think they make up the difference between Bautista & Butler. Considering the fact that the Jays are almost certainly going to try to tweak what they felt should’ve been a contender, I don’t see the fit.
Zimmer is a potential ace and ventura is an MLB ready Future #2/3 and im sure he would do well this year in the bigs. im just saying that the royals do have enough to sway us to make a deal with jbats, the issue is whether theyd do it or not.
Bautista’s value is down. He’s past his peak (not to be confused with “bad” or anything), 32, and has only 2 years (plus an option) left on his deal. Trading 2 years of Bautista for a year+ of Butler and, say, 6 years of Starling or Zimmer plus a lesser prospect sounds kind of tempting.
Lind would be to cut his salary and create the spot for Butler. Makes sense, I don’t agree with it.
Only if its multiple good prospects… Bautista>Butler and then just adding lind? makes no sense to me.
Thats a joke right?
lol are you serious? this isn’t a fantasy league, Lind and Jose for butler and ‘a’ top prospect, just so you know we are not the royals
Lets get real here people. There is no way the Jays are trading Bautista for Butler, I can’t even imagine why some would come up with this. If it’s Rasmus it’s a win for the Royals. At best it’s Rasmus, even then the Royals win. I can’t see this Rumor going anywhere anyway, it was a discussion that had no chance from the start. If I’m not mistaken this was started by Blair, if so, just let it die already.
I would have loved to let it go there but it’s Billy Butler. He can’t run, can’t play defence, has little power. Jays are better off with Lind. I wouldn’t even trade Rasmus for Butler and a decent prospect, I’d rather just lock up Rasmus. If you wan’t Gose though he’s all yours. He’s really FAST…Like Bonifacio fast.
I’d like to know what a hitting couch is. A few teams might be interested in those.
Bautista for Butler and prospects and Jays probablyy flip the prospects along with Lind to a third team for a pitcher.
Really no idea on Bautista’s value. Not a chance.
Really no idea on Bautista’s value. Not a chance.
Why trade Bautista then?
Why trade Bautista then?
Why are the Royals always trying to trade Billy Butler?
Because he is DH/coming off the bench. They have a better 1bman already which makes him expendable. Not too hard to fathom
Please AA do this somehow. I love Butlers consistency
All of his value is derived from his bat though & he backslid in 2013. Considering his lack of true natural power, I’d be fine with him at the right price but I’m not as psyched at the possibility as you.
Man we really dont need more guys with power, the combo of joey, eddy, rasmus, hopefully lawrie and lind should be enough. Havin butler in that two hole behind reyes I believe would do wonders
if the player going to the Royals is Jose Bautista, then what do the Jays do for RF?
How about his then, we will throw in Maxwell or Lough. Your choice….
Come on Dayton, turn Billy into Joey Bats!
I don’t see Bautista being a part of this deal.
Rasmus and maybe Lind for Butler and a prospect? or other pieces?
Rasmus and Lind would be way too much.
maybe one of the other OF coming from KC. if Rasmus would be going, be nice to put someone other than Gose in CF full time.
prospect or prospects are also involved.
LI think now is the time to buy low on Butler, and sell high on Lind. Lind is a platoon player who can’t hit LHP.
Why would the Jays trade Rasmus for prospects ? Rasmus is only 27 years old and already closing in on 4 years MLB service.
Rasmus and Lind for Butler would be so much overkill that the Royals FO would be taken out back for some life lessons if they did not immediately accept this trade.
Are you actually Billy Butler? Do you have any idea how badly you’re over-valuing a DH with middling power? Good lord.
Rasmus was ranked the #6th CF in the MLB last year in 118 games… so ya + Lind is not happening not to mention it creates a giant hole for the Jays… AA has clearly said he only trades his position players if it actually makes them better… this makes them about 4.5 wins worse
I don’t see Bautista being a part of this deal.
Man, it would be awesome if AA could pull this one off. Then we could ship Lind out of town
Man, it would be awesome if AA could pull this one off. Then we could ship Lind out of town
I would do Bautista to the royals for Butler, Bubba starling and zimmer in a heartbeat. That’s 2 top prospects and butler for a declining bautista with a bad attitude. All yours KC good luck with that one!! AA do this if that’s the offer, worry about dealing lind later!
Stop…Bautista’s attitude is way overblown. And I could not care less about attitude if he is still going to put up big numbers.
Why stop there?
i think this is the beginning of the possible 3 way trade the Jays were looking at….though i think Toronto would ship Butler+ off to the Brewers for Yovani Gallardo…no idea what the Royals would receive out of that though.
Doesnt make sense to me, butler cant play 1b very well why wouldnt the jays just offer lind + for gallardo?
maybe weeks instead of Gallardo…i dunno ..just spitballin
fair enough, if the jays got weeks i would cry lol he is so bad now
Ricky Weeks
Trading Rasmus for Butler fills one hole and creates another. I don’t think Gose is ready for a full-time role in CF yet. AA has said the only way he would trade Rasmus is if it makes the club better right now. Butler is nice but I don’t think it’s that much of an upgrade to give up Colby.
Billy Butler is a career DH who’s a good hitter. His 133, 120, 138, 116 wRC+ since 2010 are very good, as is his 8.2 fWAR.
Jose Bautista’s been injured each of the last 2 seasons, limiting him to 92 and 118 GP. Since 2010 though, Joey Bats has been good for 165, 181, 138, and 134 wRC+ and accumulated 21.3 fWAR. His D isn’t great but it’s not bad. I think the eye test is better than the defensive metrics let on.
There’s no way on this planet that the Jays trade JB and his own great contract for Billy Butler and his great contract unless the Royals sweeten the deal considerably. They might need to back up a dump truck full of sweetener to the Jays’ front door before the conversation went any further.
Too many random numbers and too many pointless stats armchair GMs invented to make themselves sound smart.
Yeah guys, Ruben is right.
I appreciate the passion and love Royal fans have in Butler, regardless if stats show he is not on the same planet as Bautista
I would be curious to see what the Jays send the Royals for Butler.
Butler would be a solid fit with the Jays. He would be able to take reps at DH, would allow the Jays to play E5 more at 1B, and Butler would be one of the most ideal candidates in the MLB to platoon with Adam Lind.
butler is not a platoon player
He can be if you make him one. Otherwise there is no trade as the Jays already have a logjam at 1b/DH with E5 and Lind.
so trade probably a good player to get butler then limit his value and not use him to his full potential by making him a dh? makes 0 sense to me. If we get butler, either encarnacion is going somewhere for a very good SP, or lind is going to be packaged to get a good SP.
I clearly said in my post that Billy Butler would be the DH?
Where else would he play? He has no position, and the Jays have many better defensive 1B – e5 and Dan Johnson topping the defensive depth chart there.
The only thing that would limit Butler’s value is Butler himself. If he is hitting, he plays. If not he sits.
San Fran just signed Morse to a 1 yr 5M contract. Having butler at 8 mil and sitting on the bench if he is not performing is not the worst situation in the world….
WHy would we sit butler though?
I never said we would….
there is no need to make Butler a platoon player. he is a really good player, who can repeat what he did in 2012.
No one here has stopped to think that a platoon player can still get 400+ PA in a season? If he is hitting RHP well there is nothing to stop him from getting 600PA. There are plenty of PA to go around.
Yeah, let’s acquire Billy Butler and pay him $8MM so that he can play only against lefties.
I mean, way to be entirely contentious. Apparently people have the wrong idea about what a platoon is. In 2013, you don’t have to strictly limit your platoons to one position and RHP/LHP but you can limit your imagination if you choose to…
Lind at 1B (or DH) against RHP, and in those games Butler would be at DH (or 1B) ? but then were is Encarnacion, 3B?
Depends on who is performing.
There are plenty of PA’s to go around between 1b/DH for all of Lind/Butler/E5. We aren’t exactly talking about the cream of the crop with Lind and Butler, and banking on Lind to put up another 1 WAR season, or for any of these guys to actually hit a 600 PA threshold is really pushing it.
(Edit: you jokingly suggest that we should try e5 at 3b, and quite frankly, it is not the worst idea in the world if/when Lawrie hits the DL. soooo…. having butler and lind for E5 to play the 5 for a lawrie DL stint is not as farfetched as you make it sound…
at least…. not as farfetched as the Jays trading for Butler when they already have Lind….)
What am I missing then? I understand a platoon to be RHB vs. LHP and LHB vs. RHP, for the most part.
It’s not like you can just jumble all three bats in to the lineup and have other people play designated fielder. $8MM + acquisition costs is too much to pay for someone that isn’t going to be in the lineup everyday. I get sitting Lind against LHP, but there are only two positions for the three of the 1B/DH types in the RHP half of this scenario, and were it to happen, Butler is the odd man out.
Butler vs. RHP- 347 wOBA in 2013, .344 career
Lind vs RHP- .396 wOBA in 2013, .364 career
A platoon doesn’t have to be strict, is what you are missing. A platoon can fluctuate on a day to day basis based on much more recent trends than 6yr split trends, is what you are also missing.
Obviously, Lind is better vs RHP and Butler vs LHP. But what if we are facing a righty that Lind has always struggled against, whereas Butler has had success? What if Lind is terrible next year, as he very well might be? What if Lind is going through one of his patented 2 month cold streaks where he ceases to hit RHP as well as LHP?
Did Rajai only face LHP for the Jays last year, as a platoon player? Look at the contract he just signed with Detroit. Will he only be facing LHP next year?
Mike Morse just signed with San Fran to play 3-6 innings per game at 5M per year. Is it really unreasonable to pay a much better hitter, billy butler, 8M next year to take 400-600PA’s?
If you don’t think you can get 1.5 WAR out of 400-600 PAs of Billy Butler, what on earth are you doing trading for him in the first place? Butler and Lind would cost the jays a total of 15M next year, less than the price of Mike Napoli. If you think you are wasting value having both players on the team, you have forgotten the fact that the Jays have had 0 bench bats other than Mark DeRosa over the last three years, and that the bench currently consists of Moises Sierra. Speaking of which, if you are so concerned about value, why trade for Billy Butler at all when we have an out-of-options Mosies Sierra already capable of filling in the gaps?
Definitely starting skimming after
But what if we are facing a righty that Lind has always struggled against, whereas Butler has had success? What if Lind is terrible next year, as he very well might be? What if Lind is going through one of his patented 2 month cold streaks where he ceases to hit RHP as well as LHP?
Yeah, let’s trade for an $8MM bench bat/contingency plan, just in case Adam Lind is confirmed terrible.
This isn’t difficult. Butler plays everyday if he’s acquired. The Blue Jays, of all teams, aren’t acquiring a most-of-the-time guy and paying him $8MM.
Speaking of which, if you are so concerned about value, why trade for Billy Butler at all when we have an out-of-options Mosies Sierra already capable of filling in the gaps?
I’m not. I’ve not said that I was for or against a Butler trade, just that it doesn’t make sense with Lind and EE still in the fold, or inventing some weird sort of platoon based on small samples and cold streaks.
Let us break this down since you came to MLBTR to argue viciously today:
1) The Jays trading anything other than mid-level and low level prospects for Butler is probably a bad idea. Unless the package deal is so crazy I can’t think of all the moving parts.
2) I am not a proponent of trading for Butler, unless it is for said very cheap package.
3) If the Jays were able to acquire Butler for a very cheap package, I think it would be a good idea to pay him 8M for next year, regardless of the production he provides.
Can we agree on these three points, or are you going to carry this further?
[Edit: so that I don’t think less of you, can you at least acknowledge that 8 M is not very much to pay a baseball player of Butler’s quality?]
No, nothing? Just came to troll and dash. it really bothers me when people speak from some ivory tower, and then are unable to come to terms on any mutual points of agreement.
Funny how I never said I was for or against a Butler trade, yet you decided to be extremely rude to me several times. Somehow you read “I would be curious to see what the Jays offer in trade” as a “the Jays better quickly trade for Butler or else”.
Seriously, man. Get some manners. Just because you are hiding behind a computer doesn’t mean you can be rude all the time. You have even corrected me on a misreading in this thread to an unrelated comment, and I corrected myself. Yet you think you somehow have some better opinion about baseball trades than I do? Come on…
What? You suggested a platoon of Butler and Lind? What am I supposed to do, agree with you?
While my other comment awaits posting, you must realize how off this comment would be in isolation.
Butler and Lind would literally be one of the better DH platoons in baseball. Combined with 1B needing reps and an inevitable 3B Lawrie injury, there are plenty of PA’s to go around on a hypothetical team consisting of e5/Lind/Butler for each of these players to get 400+ PA’s (with their own injuries/performances taken into account), and for each of them to put up a respectable WAR count relative to their contracts….
(Edit: Mike Napoli will make 16M next year. A Butler/Lind Platoon would make 15M next year, and the Jays have bench spaces in need of healthy competition.)
If money were no object then sure, it would be lovely to have a Butler/Lind platoon. But it isn’t wise to pay $8 million a year for a platoon player when you need starting pitching…
Money is obviously an object for the Jays, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to have all three of Lind/e5/Butler on the same team at a total cost of 25 M for next year. In fact, this would be a very good use of monies, if one did not have other pressing needs.
Lind, Butler and E5 would not all exist. Probably Lind gets moved
What is the point of this trade at all then?
The Jays have enough right handed pop with e5 and Bautista, why give away half of your lefty pop (in Lind) and replace him with Butler?
I am going to assume Lind brings something else the Jays want. Butler is the better overall hitter as his replacement
Right, but in a hypothetical Jays/Royals trade involving Lind and Butler, I don’t really see too many other moving parts to balance the value of both players that actually makes both teams significantly better.
I’m suggesting Lind goes to another team not the Royals.
Does Lind move before or after the trade for Butler?
Since I received down votes for suggesting it would be a half decent idea to have all of Butler/E5/Lind on the same team if the acquisition cost for Butler was not insane, should we trade Lind after we are “forced” to do so via a Butler acquisition? Or should we trade Lind before acquiring Butler, when the acquisition is not yet entirely certain?
How many of you are serious? Jose Bautista isn’t getting traded.
Probably not to the Royals for Butler, but why not?
Because he’s good and the Jays are trying to win?
Well , we need to address SP and 2B, i can see the jays trading bautista or encarnacion ONLY if its for a very good 2B/SS to be honest
Exactly.
Seems that I am not the only one that can see a hypothetical Jays trade involving Bautista.
Obviously I would prefer to see a Jays/Bautista trade involve a middle infielder and/or top flight SP, and I don’t even think that precludes a trade with the Royals involving someone like Shields.
They wouldnt move shields. I dont want to move bautista, but if we do i would not be hpapy unless we toatlly fleece the other team, OR its for a top 2B or SP
Yeah Bautista is a fantastic player but why can’t the Jays win even if he is traded?
I don’t know how to construct this in to a legible, non-run-on sentence, but I’ll give it a shot.
I don’t think the onus is on me to have this make sense. You’re going to have to show me another example of a team trading their best player for a downgrade + prospects, creating a logjam at a non-premium position, meanwhile creating a hole at a position where they’re already thin at a point in time where they were in win-now mode. You’re probably going to struggle with this.
Well put! 100% agree
Well played, sir.
would hardly call bautista the jays best player. EE is better then him, reyes I would put as more valuable and even rasmus. JB is not the player he was 4 years ago hell hes not the player he was 2 years ago. Injuries and lack of patience are catching up to him. His defence is becoming and more and more clear that without that arm he is a horrible fielder with very little range and if his knees go anymore he is done and will be worth nothing
When did I say Bautista would be traded for a downgrade + prospects? You are very good at putting words in people’s mouths, quite evident throughout this thread.
Obviously there are no examples of what you are asking me to find, but the onus is still on you:
You are so vehemently sure that Jose Bautista will not be traded, why is this so? He produces well, has a very friendly contract, and teams covet him. If the Jays can get better via a Bautista trade, why would the Jays not pursue said option?
Batista has been injured and he’s already 33. get something really good now while you can before he declines more.
Butler is only 27 and beginning his prime. he had a down 2013, but I don’t even think we’ve seen his best season yet.
Are you people serious when you say they should trade JB for prospects ? By doing so you are literally giving up on this season. If anything, trade deadline and the jays are below 500. Even then it would have to be a blockbuster trade
I don’t think it’s Bautista for prospects. getting Butler is the get.
At the price of Jose Bautista with the same amount of team control remaining? It’d be almost certainly a decisive step backward in the here & now assuming health.
Billy Butler is hardly a “get”. He’s a sub-par DH or a good RH bat off the bench.
I should probably make it clear that while Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are not untouchable, there is no chance that they are involved in any deal that involves Billy Butler. Also, for those asking about why the Blue Jays would possibly want to move Colby Rasmus, the answer is rather simple. This is his last year under contract and since he had a good season in 2013 and is young, he is going to require a big commitment in terms of years and money. I seriously doubt the Jays want to sign him to an extension given his inconsistent play. Sure, he has a lot of talent. But if I’m the Jays, I want to sell-high on Rasmus and save the money he will make through arbitration to pursue a much needed starting pitcher on the free agent market.
I could see it being Rasmus and Santos for Butler, Cain and Ventura/Zimmer/Almonte.
If Rasmus is healthy, plays a full year and produces like he did this past year, he’s a top 3 CF in the MLB.
That is ridiculous. I like your idea of Rasmus and Santos for Butler and Cain…. but considering that Rasmus is a free agent after this season, there is ZERO chance that the Jays can get any of Venture/Zimmer/Almonte.
Butler isn’t very good as he is a one dimensional player, and Cain is significantly worse than Rasmus.
Santos is an elite bullpen arm when healthy.
I just think there’s still a mismatch in terms of value until you add a high level prospect. Like an Org. Top 10.
is David Ortiz not very good because he is one dimensional?
Bautista is 33 years old. Butler is 27 years old. in the near future (maybe even 2014) Butler is going to pass Bautista in production. Butler wont hit HR like Bautista, but he can give better overall numbers.
I disagree. Bautista provides leadership and his arm in the outfield makes him more valuable than Billy Butler. I am telling you that nobody with any baseball sense would trade Jose Bautista for Billy Butler, it just would never happen. It also doesn’t make any sense because if you were to do that.. you would have three 1B/DH in Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, and Billy Butler.
wouldn’t be a problem if Lind was traded. the Jays should be selling high on Lind, who sucks against LHP.
Ok. So, say the Jays trade Bautista…. and according to you, trade Lind as well. How does that help them at all? That makes the Jays worse.
removing Lind is addition by subtraction.
Bautista is going to be declining soon and has already been getting injured. Butler had a down year overall, but picked things up in the 2nd half.
I wouldn’t do Bautista and Lind for Butler, but there would be other pieces. like who plays RF for the Jays? I don’t know who else the Royals have. Lorenzo Cain?
I think you fail to see how much better Bautista is over Butler… let me give you a hint… its NOT EVEN close! Not to mention Bautista is on an amazing contract. Where your wrong about Lind is that he hit for more Power then Bulter last year and yes he should not hit against LHP but he is really good against RHP which is the majority of league. Lind has issues but there are a lot of teams who would want his bat against LHP & he is on a very friendly contract. One of the issues is that the Jays did not platoon Lind over the past few years and he really should not be facing LHP.
I’ve been on the AA bandwagon since he arrived to the Jays GM post and I would be the first to say that AA should be fired immediately if he traded Bautista for a package of Butler + friends, unless those were some pretty good friends that I don’t exactly see on the Royals roster/farm system other than someone like James Shields.
Steamer projects Bautista to be worth twice the WAR as they do for Butler, and Oliver stops just shy of triple. Given Butler’s defense, body-type and down-year last season, not to mention the typical aging curve of position players (they peak at age-27, on average), it wouldn’t surprise me if Butler never passes Bautista in production.
peak at 27? last I saw players are just entering their prime at age 27.
what effect does it have on WAR that Butler is a DH and therefor doesn’t really play on defense?
Pretty sure I can’t link BTB here. Search BTB “hitter aging curves”. Peak age is actually 26, as far as batting runs (as opposed to fielding runs) is concerned.
As for DHing (big guys tend to DH/1B more than anything), Fangraphs finds that they peak even earlier. fangraphs.com/blogs/how-will-prince-fielder-age/
edit- WAR has a defensive metric, and playing DH gives the biggest defensive penalty of any position, since a DH is probably DHing since he’s the worst option of all 9 hitters.
what is BTB?
I’ve heard of bigger/heavier players not being able to last as long, but there are exceptions.
BTB = beyond the boxscore.
There are definitely exceptions, but if you took anyone listed at 240+, the ratio of exceptions to rules is probably staggering.
Regardless of Butlers age there is not a great chance Butler ever passes Bautista in production. While Butler has continued to keep fairly consistent in his hitting he overs nothing else in value which hurts his WAR. Butler is a 1-dimentionsal player. Basically if Butler has a down year or sees a regression on hitting because he brings nothing else to the table he will be worth very little in value. Despite his high OBP he is a liability on the bases which also hurts him. Bautista just brings the complete package which is why he is star
AA has actually said they attempted to sign Colby to an extension during last season and would like to wait into this year to see if the “new” colby is for real. If it is for real he we be looking for a Choo type contract next offseason. Last year he was ranked #6th CF in the MLB. With the limited OF options the Jays have they would like to keep Colby
I think its more likely:
Buehrle + Lind for Butler + Prospects (Ventura?)
If the Blue Jays were rebuilding, then sure, this trade might work. But, Mark Buerhle is immovable because of his contract and the Jays need starting pitching badly. Also, Ventura is worth a lot more than that.
Mark B is not immovable because of his contract. In fact, I would say just the opposite: he is very movable because of his contract. Look at the contracts just handed to Lincecum, Hughes, and Nolasco.
Mark Buerhle is almost 35 and can barely throw above 85mph. You are wrong. He is set to make $18 million this year and $19 million next season. You need to get your facts right before you make silly statements.
Who cares how hard Mark B throws or how old he is? He is a crafty lefty, arguably one of the more crafty lefty’s in the modern era.
Jamie Moyer had no problems getting guys out until he was throwing 77 MPH…. as hard as many little league world series kids….
As long as mark B keeps getting guys out, his velocity and age need not apply
I want you to answer me this. Would you pay $37 million over the next two years for a soon to be 35 year old who is a No. 3 starter at best. How is he “very movable”?
If the price for:
Tim Lincecum is 2 yr/35M
Ricky Nolasco is 4yr/49M w a 5th yr vesting option
Phil Hughes is 3yr/24m
Mark B is 2yr/37m
My simple answer to your question is an astiounding yes.
Yes, Mark Buerhle is very movable. One of the most established veterans in the union, and still gets lots of other union members out, to boot….
Then you are crazy. I don’t think anyone would agree with you. Phil Hughes is a terrible example because he is only making $8 million a year (Buerhle is making $10 million more) and all those you listed are so much younger than Mark Buerhle and in the case of Lincecum, he did win a CY Young and is still young, so you can’t compare the two
Why does their age matter at all? All that matters is production relative to pay, and Mark B is a lock for 2 WAR. Tim Lincecum is not a lock for 2 WAR and makes the same amount of money as Mark B.
agreed, Buerhle would def. be attracting to teams if he was available. I don’t think it makes sense to deal him as he was one of our better pitchers and will more then likely be again but if you got good value and $ relief why not.
Ok, let me put it this way. Would you give Bronson Arroyo a 2-year, $37 million contract?
no but Arroyo has been on a downward spiral. He is declining and I don’t think beurhle is at that point yet. sure he isn’t amazing but I would put him ahead or Bronson. Plus if the jays were talking Buerhle as a free agent I doubt they pay the 35 mil either however he is signed already and yes def worth more then he should be getting but you know exactly what to expect from him
Why does age matter at all? Are you kidding…..
Age may matter but you quoting mph as a viable stat when comparing buerhle does not matter at all. He has never been a hard thrower and owns perfect games and no hitters so you are telling me he is worthless? He is a valuable pitcher with or without the big contract which isn’t all that big compared to some others out there
I don’t really think it is fair to call me crazy, but if those are the words you want to use feel free.
I don’t know how you can simply exclude the Phil Hughes contract from your analysis of “is Mark B and his contract a tradeable entity or not” since Phil Hughes and Mark B are both being paid in the real world by organizations very affiliated with each other to do literally the exact same chore: get guys out.
for a money conscious team he is very untradable unless jays eat salary. he’s an overpaid aging 4th tier starter
Obviously in any hypothetical trade involving mark b the Jays eat salary or take on salary. But to say the contract is immovable is simply incorrect.
Buerhle isn’t immovable. Wait til you see what Garza or Santana gets. Buerhle’s 2/$38 is nothing for the value and consistency he gives you. As for Ventura I just threw a name out I saw in the comments.
no chance, unless jays swallow salary
There has to be more than what we are looking at. Butler, has an identical OPS to Cruz, is 5 years younger, will come in cheaper and has no PED history. KC wants him gone why?
No position to play other than DH.
If Bautista is available, the M’s should be all over that. Rasmus too.
Totally agree. I know Toronto was looking for controllable pitching which we have.
It would take Paxton and/or walker PLUS Ackley or franklin to get jb. Not that its not a better offer then the royals prospects however I don’t think seattle would deal either walker or paxton
Walker is untouchable. Paxton would be the most likely one to move for Bautista. For Rasmus? They could trade someone like Maurer and a few other pieces for him.
Rasmus for maurer and ackely or franklin and we got a deal…lol Maurer looks like a very decent #3 and we need a 2nd baseman as I don’t think goins is going to cut it long run so Ackley or franklin fill that void if they perform to capabilities
Honestly I could see that happening. I think Franklin has more to offer compared to Ackley. I would want the M’s to hold onto him but we still need outfielders.
Idk…..Ackley has all the tools if he puts it together the guy could be great. Franklin is the same type of player minus the hype that Ackley had. I would take either but hope for franklin as he is a bit younger with the same upside.
Jays are contending, they’ll want guys who have proven something. As good as walker probably will be, he’s probably not as valuable to a contending team as a guy like Iwakuma
Hisashi Iwakuma for Colby Rasmus. Thoughts?
M’s laugh at that one.
I think AA would do that in a heart beat, problem is I think m’s hang up as soon as that’s the offer….I would be ok with it although I do really like rasmus and think he is coming into his own and could have a huge couple of years coming
I am not a Rasmus fan. He has all the talent in the world, but has never been consistent. And you may be right, perhaps he is coming into his own… but he is a free agent after this season and he is going to command a massive contract in free agency. A contract which i seriously doubt the Jays would want to do
iwauma seems like a good possibility, I’d imaging more player are involved though.
in terms of pitching, seattle and jays are not well matched. Most teams not named the st.louis cardinals, need high quality starters right now, and if seattle is making a playoff push, it makes no sense to deplete their rotation–remember pitching wins titles
Interesting idea, still think it takes more though.
By that I mean I don’t see a straight up trade. Ackley or Franklin must be involved, even if that means the Jays sending more than just Rasmus.
How about Rasmus, Nolin and Gose for Iwakuma and Franklin.
no chance, iwakuma is part of playoff push for M’s