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MLBTR Originals

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A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR this past week, as 2013 became 2014:

Poll: Which Team Will Sign Stephen Drew?

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On Friday, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes looked at where free agent shortstop Stephen Drew could help the most, including teams like the Astros, Marlins, Twins, Royals and Yankees. In the comments, a reader added the Athletics as a team that might make sense, with Drew taking over at shortstop at Jed Lowrie moving to second base.

Just because a player might be able to help a given team doesn't mean that team will sign him, however. The Yankees, for example, have said they're not interested in Drew. And teams like the Twins and Pirates, who might otherwise be able to use Drew, appear set to go with internal options (Pedro Florimon and Jordy Mercer, respectively) rather than signing Drew and giving up a draft pick to get him. As a result, the market for Drew doesn't appear to be particularly strong.

Since Friday, we've heard that the Mets, who would represent a potential fit for Drew, are "divided" on how valuable he would be to them. The Mets are the team most consistently connected to Drew, but reports on the intensity of their interest vary, and they could easily simply go with Ruben Tejada and address the shortstop position later if he doesn't work out. There's also the chance that Drew could re-sign with the Red Sox, who could move Xander Bogaerts to third base and Will Middlebrooks to the bench. All sorts of dark-horse teams could sneak in as well, with the stable potentially expanding if teams decide Drew could play second base or third base for them.

Right now, it appears that the Red Sox and Mets are the only significant suitors. If the market is going to widen much beyond those two teams, Scott Boras may have to get creative. So just for fun, we'll include every team in the poll. Regardless of who needs him the most, who do you think will sign Drew?

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Week In Review: 12/29/13 – 1/4/14

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Here's a look back at this week at MLBTR.

AL Notes: Indians, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Jays

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The Indians have had a quiet offseason thus far, with December's one-year pact with John Axford and a trade that netted them reliever Josh Outman in exchange for Drew Stubbs being their biggest moves. In a reader mailbag column, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer writes that the Tribe's estimated 2013 attendance figure of 1.6 million — second-to-last in the majors — could be a factor in the club's quiet offseason. Fans might see more activity from the Cleveland front office if attendance returned to the 2.5 million to 3 million range that the Indians formerly drew, Hoynes says. Here's more from around the American League:

  • Jeff Sullivan examined the importance of rotation depth in a piece for Fangraphs. In 2013, teams got an average of 32 starts from pitchers who didn't rank among their top-five most heavily used starters. Sullivan notes that a pitcher like Ryan Dempster, who's been the subject of trade discussions as the odd man out in the Red Sox rotation, could end up being valuable for Boston when one factors in expected rates of starter attrition.
  • A trip to the postseason can exhaust a pitcher, former Cy Young Award-winner Orel Hershiser tells Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. Red Sox pitchers Jon Lester and Koji Uehara each reached career highs in innings as they continued to throw into October last season. Lauber reports that Red Sox personnel have urged some of the club's pitchers to alter their offseason routines because of the higher workloads.
  • The Boston Herald's John Tomase sizes up the Red Sox's AL East competitors now that several have brought in new talent.
  • Yesterday, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com listed the six worst contracts on the books for the Yankees. Today, he named Brett Gardner (arbitration eligible), Alfonso Soriano (one year with the Cubs paying all but $5MM of his 2014 salary), David Robertson (arbitration eligible), Ivan Nova (arbitration eligible), Hiroki Kuroda (one year, $16MM), and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM) as the team's best bargains. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects arbitration salaries of $4MM for Gardner, $5.5MM for Robertson, and $2.8MM for Nova. 
  • It's time for the Orioles to spend, and starting pitching stands out as the team's greatest area of need, CBS Sports' Dayn Perry writes. Signing Masahiro Tanaka would provide the club with a front-of-the-rotation arm as it prepares for another grueling season in the AL East. Kendrys Morales is also a good fit for the Orioles' DH slot, Perry opines.
  • The Blue Jays have been quiet so far this offseason, but Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star sees five reasons for being optimistic about 2014.

Edward Creech contributed to this post.

NL Notes: Davis, Buck, Cardinals

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With Winter Storm Ion pummeling the eastern half of the United States, let's warm ourselves on the Hot Stove with the latest National League news and notes:

  • The Mets expect to begin Spring Training next month with Ike Davis still in the fold, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The Brewers and Pirates have been the clubs most linked to Davis and the Mets are willing to re-engage in trade talks with them or any other team. The Orioles have also shown interest in the 26-year-old first baseman, but they turned down the Mets' request of pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez and are notably not mentioned in Rubin's article. 
  • The Mets are open to adding more depth at catcher, but have no interest in a reunion with John Buck, tweets the New York Post's Mike Puma.
  • International free agency has been key to the Cardinals' having the game's best farm system, according to Derrick Goold of the St.Louis Post-Dispatch. The club's top position and pitching prospects (Oscar Taveras and Carlos Martinez, respectively) were both signed as international free agents, Goold notes.    

Half Dozen Teams Interested In Brett Tomko

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About a half dozen clubs have expressed interest in right-hander Brett Tomko, tweets MLBTR's Zach Links. The 40-year-old will throw for teams within the next few weeks either in California or Arizona, Links reports.

Tomko is open to a bullpen role and is willing to go to Triple-A and mentor pitching prospects, which, according to Links (via Twitter), should help him land a job. Links notes, in a separate tweet, potential suitors will evaluate Tomko at his throwing session, but won't make a decision until late in camp based on the depth of their pitching staffs. 

Tomko, who impressed during his stint in the Dominican League, spent the 2013 season with the York Revolution of the independent Atlantic League. He made 19 starts (two complete games) compiling a 4.98 ERA, 6.5 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 in 124 2/3 innings. Tomko's last MLB appearance was eight games in 2011 coming out of the Rangers' bullpen. During his 14-year Major League career, Tomko has posted a 4.65 ERA, 6.0 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 in 367 games (266 starts).   

Mets Front Office Divided On Stephen Drew

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The Mets remain engaged with agent Scott Boras about free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew, but a source familiar with the process tells Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that Drew is more of a "possibility" than a "probability" for them.  Team officials are divided about how valuable Drew would be to the Mets.

The Mets would be more willing to consider a one- or two-year deal for Drew at the right price but don't want to go to three years or beyond.  Andy Martino of the Daily News (on Twitter) gets the sense that the Mets have a strong reluctance towards offering anything more than one year.  However, Rubin writes that if Drew were to accept a shorter-term deal, the feeling is that it would be with the Red Sox.  Because of that, some Mets officials are wary that Boras is using them to drive up the price in Boston. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes recently explored possible destinations for the 14th-ranked player on MLBTR's 2014 Top 50 Free Agents list including the Astros, Yankees, Twins, Royals, and Marlins, in addition to the Mets and Red Sox.

A team insider tells Rubin that he doesn't think the Mets would need to shed payroll in order to free available space for Drew.  It also helps that their first-round pick is protected. The Mets have already forfeited their second-round draft choice for signing Curtis Granderson, so inking Drew would cost them their third-round selection and its assigned slot-value, something, according to Rubin, they are not totally averse to considering.  

The club has made it known that they're comfortable with using Ruben Tejada at shortstop, a revelation that was surprising given his recent history with the Mets.  The Mets always recognized that he has talent, but his work ethic and motivation was repeatedly called into question in 2013. 

AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Markakis

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The Blue Jays remain among the favorites to sign either Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, despite their quiet offseason thus far, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  In fact, the Jays could be quite aggressive in the New Year.  Rosenthal writes that they could acquire as many as two starters before the offseason is over and they've also discussed trades for significant starters, including the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija.  More out of the AL East..

  • Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said he is looking to add another bench player and remains on the lookout for another arm for the bullpen, writes Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Tribune.  Friedman also indicated that this year's payroll could be a record high, beating 2010's total of $72.8MM.  If that's the plan, it could be an indication that they plan to hang on to David Price.
  • Like the Blue Jays, it's been a pretty quiet offseason so far for the Orioles, but Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com fully expects the club to go out and get another starter based on the current makeup of the rotation.  For now, it looks like Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, and Bud Norris are in the rotation. The fifth spot is wide open, but left-hander Zach Britton is the likely favorite because he's out of options.
  • Nick Markakis potentially could be entering his last season with the Orioles in 2014, a year where he will be paid $15MM with a club option at $17.5MM.  While it would take an exceptional season for that to be triggered, the O's would happily settle for a return to the norm for Markakis in 2014 and worrying about 2015 later, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.

Cafardo On Red Sox, Denorfia, Cruz, Kemp

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there were two disasters in the city of Toronto last year: mayor Rob Ford and the Blue Jays.  Despite the high expectations, the Blue Jays fell flat and they'll have to rally back this season to re-energize their fan base.  The Blue Jays are at a disadvantage, Cafardo writes, because players aren't always open to playing north of the border and tend not to realize how great it is until they're there.  More from this week's column.. 

  • The Brewers need a first baseman and Mike Carp of the Red Sox appears to be a good fit.  Whether Boston would deal him remains to be seen, however, as they enjoyed his off-the-bench contributions last season.  Carp has shown that he can play every day but he won’t get that opportunity with the Red Sox unless there’s an injury to Mike Napoli. 
  • While the Red Sox don’t believe they can carry another outfielder, they have expressed some interest in the Padres' Chris Denorfia, a righthanded bat with a little power who can play center field.  The Red Sox might be able to swing a move like this, Cafardo writes, if they deal Carp or Daniel Nava somewhere.
  • A few general managers think that a one-year pillow contract would make sense for free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz.  It seems that he needs to reestablish his value and if he'd do a one-year pact, it could open more opportunities for him with clubs like the Mariners, Mets, Blue Jays, Orioles, and others.  The 33-year-old remains one of the best power hitters out there, but teams are wary about PED guys after they’re off the stuff.
  • Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp could still be trade bait as he starts to show what he can do in spring training.  Said one scout familiar with Kemp, “I think he’s going to be a guy who will be OK this year, but you’ll get the best of Kemp the following year as he’s recovered completely from the ankle.”
  • The Reds have been very quiet this offseason, but Homer Bailey’s name has come up quite often as possible trade bait.  In fact, they could possibly bring back Bronson Arroyo if they can deal Bailey.

Rosenthal on Angels, Qualifying Offers, Drew, Jays, Putz

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The Angels are likely to eclipse the $189MM luxury-tax threshold eventually, despite their efforts to avoid doing so this offseason, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. Sources tell the columnist that the Angels have between $13MM and $15MM of space left beneath the cap, figures that are much lower than what will be required to sign Masahiro Tanaka. However, extending Mike Trout at, say, $300MM over 10 years would make it difficult to avoid surpassing the threshold anyway, so the Angels may as well do so now, Rosenthal surmises. Here's more from his new column:

  • This offseason's big contracts for less-than-durable stars like Jacoby Ellsbury, Curtis Granderson and Brian McCann show that position players can earn more as free agents than they would with club-friendly, long-term deals. Meanwhile, clubs appear increasingly willing to move players who resist extensions. For example, sources tell Rosenthal that rival teams have asked about Astros catcher Jason Castro, who could be moved if Houston is unable to ink him long-term.
  • Qualifying offers appear to have suppressed the market for players such as Nelson Cruz and Kendrys Morales, frustrating player representatives. Potential fixes to the system include guaranteeing that free agents receive a qualifying offer only once, or ensuring that teams signing free agents who received qualifying offers lose only draft picks and not their associated bonus-pool amounts. The current system will remain in place for another two offseasons, Rosenthal notes.
  • Stephen Drew appears to be a fit for the Mets, rival executives say, despite the club's insistence that it will consider Ruben Tejada for its starting shortstop job.
  • The Blue Jays remain among the favorites to sign either Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, despite their quiet offseason thus far. The Jays could acquire as many as two starters before the offseason is over, Rosenthal reports. In addition to upgrading through free agency, the club has also discussed trades for the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija and other starters.
  • The Diamondbacks could trade J.J. Putz after acquiring Addison Reed from the White Sox. Swapping the righty for Yankees outfielder Ichiro Suzuki is one potential deal, or Putz could be packaged with other players in a deal for a starter such as Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers.

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