Top Young Position Players Without Extensions
Last year, 56 position players with less than six years of Major League service time were worth at least 2.5 wins above replacement. Of those, 21 have contract extensions that bought out or gave a club option on at least one free agent year. That comes to 37.5%. As popular as extensions are for above-average young position players, 62.5% of our sample has not delayed free agency. Let’s take a closer look.
Of the 35 players who do not have an extension, eight are represented by the Boras Corporation, including Chris Davis, Bryce Harper, Desmond Jennings, Eric Hosmer, and Pedro Alvarez. Boras tends to encourage his players to go year-to-year and reach free agency as early as possible. What about the other 27 players?
- Josh Donaldson, Athletics: Certainly players can and do sign long-term deals after just one elite season, which is what Donaldson has under his belt. Last year was also Donaldson’s first full season as a regular, which at age 27 makes him a late bloomer in this group. One other factor is that he changed agencies within the last few months. Donaldson is off to a torrid start in 2014, increasing his price tag if he decides to do a deal after the season.
- Manny Machado, Orioles. 2014 was also Machado’s first full season as a regular, at age 20. He suffered a torn knee ligament in September that required major surgery (his minor league rehab assignment began tonight), so it made sense to wait on exploring a deal.
- Ian Desmond, Nationals. During the offseason, the Nationals proposed a multiyear deal to Desmond believed to be worth around $90MM, reported Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Instead, a two-year deal was reached that did not affect Desmond’s path toward free agency. One of Desmond’s agents, Doug Rogalski, told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that talks with the Nationals have been amicable. Elvis Andrus‘ eight-year, $120MM deal a year ago will be a factor in discussions.
- Colby Rasmus, Blue Jays. Rasmus posted a 4.8 win season in 2013, but had been worth only 1.6 wins in the previous two seasons. He’s had a couple of agency changes along the way, and is now months from becoming a free agent at age 28.
- Gerardo Parra, Diamondbacks. Parra generates much of his value defensively, and has a pair of Gold Gloves to prove it. Defensive-minded players have started to see the dollars more, but offense still earns the big bucks in arbitration and free agency.
- Jason Castro, Astros. The Astros have acknowledged some level of discussion involving a Castro extension, but it hasn’t happened yet. There’s no indication as to how large of a gap the two sides face.
- Brandon Belt, Giants. Belt posted a very strong 2013, but he’s scorching in 2014 with seven home runs in 92 plate appearances. In February, Belt described talks with the Giants as “preliminary.” The price has probably gone up since then.
- A.J. Pollock, Diamondbacks. Pollock owed much of his value last year to defense, and with one year of service under his belt there’s no reason to rush to lock him up.
- Jed Lowrie, Athletics. 2013 was Lowrie’s first full, healthy season, and now he’s in his contract year. The 30-year-old will be well-compensated if he posts another healthy campaign, more so if his stellar 2014 walk rate holds up to some degree.
- Chase Headley, Padres. Headley is also in his contract year. He had an MVP-caliber 2012 season, and while 2013 was good, it was a more defense-minded campaign. Headley has had extension talks with the Padres for years, but he appears headed to free agency.
- Kyle Seager, Mariners. Seager has posted two strong seasons for the Mariners, but it’s possible a gap in perceived value exists due to his pronounced home/road splits.
- Craig Gentry, Athletics. Gentry has generated a lot of value defensively and has been something short of a regular, so he remains year-to-year.
- Jason Heyward, Braves. Like Desmond, Heyward signed a two-year deal that did not delay free agency. He was elite by WAR in 2012, but a top-five MVP finish always seem possible for the 24-year-old, and he hasn’t gotten there yet.
- Jean Segura, Brewers. Segura’s breakout 2013 season led to extension talks, but agent Joe Klein told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, “With a guy this young, it’s hard to figure out what the right numbers would be.”
- Todd Frazier, Reds. Frazier has posted a pair of solid seasons, but the Reds aren’t jumping to extend him after a .234/.314/.407 offensive line in 2013.
- Welington Castillo, Cubs. As a player with one good year, the Cubs can afford to wait to see if Castillo is their catcher of the future.
- Mark Trumbo, Diamondbacks. Trumbo may be year-to-year on account of being a one-dimensional player, though consistent power typically gets paid.
- There are 10 more players who were worth 2.0-2.5 wins in 2013 and have not signed extensions. Some, like Juan Lagares and Gregor Blanco, haven’t established themselves as regulars. Players like Leonys Martin, Brian Dozier, Josh Reddick, and Chris Johnson haven’t had extended success. Others are good but not spectacular, like second basemen Neil Walker and Daniel Murphy.
Boras is a big reason many of the game’s best young position players don’t give up free agent years. The other reasons are varied, with late bloomers, players affected by injury, inconsistent performers, and players who have short track records. While it may not fit the narrative of baseball’s growing extension trend, one overarching theme may be that most of the game’s best young position players still prefer to avoid leaving money on the table to acquire long-term security.
Data from FanGraphs was used for this post. If you’d like to explore this topic further, check out MLBTR’s Extension Tracker. Please note: Yasiel Puig was omitted due to the special circumstances with his seven-year contract.
Quick Hits: Edwards, Red Sox, Beckham, Blue Jays
A recent MRI showed that C.J. Edwards‘ shoulder has no structural damage, but the Cubs prospect could still miss over a month, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times reports. For the Cubs, this is good news — manager Rich Renteria tells the Tribune’s Mark Gonzales (via Twitter) that Edwards’ diagnosis provides “a tremendous sigh of relief.” Edwards had “tightness” while pitching in a side session earlier this week. Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook 2014 ranked Edwards the Cubs’ third-best prospect in a strong system, behind only Javier Baez and Kris Bryant. He pitched brilliantly down the stretch for Class A+ Daytona last season after arriving from the Rangers in the Matt Garza trade. Here are more notes from around baseball.
- The Red Sox‘ recent success has been driven, in part, by a turn away from expensive veteran free agents, Joshua Green of Bloomberg BusinessWeek explains in a long profile of Sox owner John Henry. The trend of players signing pre-free agency extensions has made free agents less valuable, according to GM Ben Cherington. “There are fewer and fewer players getting to free agency, or even close, in their prime-age seasons,” he says. “The average age of a free agent has continued to increase. It used to be 30. It’s now north of 32.” Henry thinks Jacoby Ellsbury‘s departure from the Red Sox to the Yankees this offseason was a key indicator of the two teams’ differences in outlook. “It is a wildly different approach,” Henry says. “We haven’t participated in this latest feeding frenzy of bidding up stars.”
- With the emergence of Marcus Semien and a number of other potential future options at second base (Leury Garcia, Carlos Sanchez, Micah Johnson), Gordon Beckham could become a trade chip for the White Sox, ESPN Chicago’s Doug Padilla writes. Until they deal Beckham (or if they don’t deal him), the White Sox could keep Semien in the lineup by giving him occasional starts at shortstop and third base. Beckham is set to make $4.175MM this year.
- The Blue Jays‘ key question marks include the back of their rotation and second base, GM Alex Anthopoulos tells ESPN’s Buster Olney in the Baseball Tonight Podcast. (Anthopoulos’ segment begins about 30 minutes in.) The Jays currently have Dustin McGowan in the fifth spot in their rotation, and Ryan Goins at second. Anthopoulos mentions that he likes Goins’ defense, but feels the team can upgrade on him offensively.
- Union chief Tony Clark has expressed concern regarding the Mets‘ payroll, but MLB commissioner Bud Selig isn’t worried, Newsday’s Steven Marcus tweets. Selig says that he has confidence in the Mets’ ownership.
West Notes: Appel, Trumbo, Sandoval
The Astros have sent 2013 top overall pick Mark Appel to extended spring training, Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle reports (Twitter links). The Astros say Appel isn’t injured, and they attribute his struggles to his adjustments to their tandem rotation system, but GM Jeff Luhnow calls Appel’s performance so far “a little unsettling.” Appel has posted a 6.23 ERA with 13 strikeouts and four walks so far with Class A+ Lancaster. Here are more notes from the West divisions.
- Diamondbacks outfielder Mark Trumbo will be out six weeks with a fracture in his foot, Jack Magruder of FOX Sports Arizona tweets. Trumbo’s absence is yet another blow for the Diamondbacks, who are off to a 7-18 start and will now be without one of their key offseason acquisitions (along with Bronson Arroyo and Addison Reed) for an extended period.
- It appears that the price for free-agent-to-be Pablo Sandoval may have increased, and the Giants perhaps should have considered signing him for something close to the five years and $90MM he was reportedly seeking before, Grant Brisbee of McCovey Chronicles writes. Given the lack of good third base options available either internally or on the 2014-15 free-agent market, signing Sandoval to an extension seems to be the Giants’ best bet, Brisbee argues.
Padres Designate Alex Castellanos For Assignment
The Padres will designate infielder Alex Castellanos for assignment and transfer right-hander Josh Johnson to the 60-day disabled list today as part of a series of moves to promote right-hander Kevin Quackenbush and infielder Jace Peterson, reports Corey Brock of MLB.com (on Twitter).
Castellanos, 27, is no stranger to DFA limbo as this is the fourth time he has been designated for assignment in the past calendar year. He’s also been DFA’ed by the Dodgers, Red Sox and Rangers, resulting in a trade (from L.A. to Boston) and a pair of waiver claims.
That Castellanos has been unable to pass through waivers at any time is no surprise, given his strong minor league track record. The second baseman/third baseman/outfielder owns a robust 284/.377/.511 batting line in 916 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, though he’s been unable to replicate that success in his brief taste of Major League action to this point. Castellanos has hit just .171/.186/.390 in the bigs, though it’s not entirely fair to judge him based on those numbers as he’s only received 43 plate appearances despite his mastery of the minor leagues.
Latest On Pablo Sandoval
Though Pablo Sandoval and the Giants have tabled extension talks during the season, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports that the two sides at least got a bit closer together in terms of contract length during negotiations. The Giants initially pitched a “conversation-starting” three-year, $40MM extension and then expressed an openness to do a four-year deal with an option for a fifth year.
Sandoval and agent Gustavo Vasquez were known to be looking for “at least” a five-year, $90MM deal and Heyman hears that they’re actually aiming for a five-year contract in the $100MM range or more. As MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker indicates, only a few third baseman have found five-year/$100MM+ contracts in recent years and none of those big deals came on the free agent market. (Alex Rodriguez was a shortstop when he signed his initial free agent deal with Texas, and obviously that contract isn’t at all comparable to Sandoval’s situation.) The Giants have been proactive in signing their own stars to extensions, though as Heyman observes, the fact that they haven’t yet done so with Sandoval and are seemingly taking a harder line in negotiations is rather telling.
While a five-year, $100MM deal could be available to Sandoval on the open market given the relative lack of impact free agent bats next winter, a number of factors could cloud Sandoval’s case. He’ll obviously need to improve from his slow start to the 2014 campaign, his market could be dampened by a qualifying offer from the Giants and teams around the league (like the Giants themselves) have concerns about Sandoval’s conditioning. Heyman quotes both an NL scout and an NL executive praising Sandoval’s hitting ability but questioning his ability to stay in shape.
Vasquez implied to Heyman that he isn’t planning to reopen talks, as the Giants “know what they have [in Sandoval], I’m sure.” The agent also said that the Giants wanted to settle the extension “in a rush,” which would seem to counter the belief that the team was waiting to determine if Sandoval’s offseason weight loss would stick before deciding on whether to offer an extension.
Minor Moves: Simon Castro, Brian Bixler
Here are today’s notable minor league transactions, with the latest moves at the top of the page…
- Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports that the Rockies have inked right-hander Simon Castro to a minor league deal (Twitter link). A former top prospect in the Padres system, Castro was traded to the White Sox along with left-hander Pedro Hernandez in exchange for Carlos Quentin back in 2011. Castro was a Top 60 prospect in 2010-11 according to both BA and Baseball Prospectus, but his stock has obviously tumbled since that time. He posted a 5.83 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 92 2/3 innings for the Sox’ Triple-A affiliate in 2013 and has a career 6.44 ERA at the Triple-A level. Castro has been excellent at Class-A and Double-A, although BA wrote following the 2012 season that his slider and changeup have lost their effectiveness. The scouting report did note, however, that he flashed a splitter that could complement his 90-95 mph fastball in the bullpen should he abandon his role as a starter.
- The Padres have signed utiltyman Brian Bixler to a minor league deal and he’ll report to Double-A, MLB.com’s Corey Brock reports (Twitter link). Bixler signed a minor league contract with the Phillies in February but was released earlier this month. The versatile Bixler hit .189/.249/.269/ in 356 PA with the Pirates, Nationals and Astros from 2008-12 and he spent 2013 with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.
Steve Adams contributed to this post.
Rockies Sign Rafael Betancourt
The Rockies and right-hander Rafael Betancourt have agreed to terms on a minor league deal, the team announced via Twitter. Betancourt, who is represented by Octagon, will report to extended Spring Training with the Rockies. Troy Renck of the Denver Post calls the signing a “formality,” noting that his plan is to work out in extended Spring Training with an eye toward pitching in the Majors late this summer (Twitter link).
Betancourt, who turns 39 next week, is attempting a comeback from Tommy John surgery at a late stage in his career. Last August, when Betancourt decided to undergo the procedure, he acknowledged that it could be the end of the line but stated that he’d attempt to rehab and make a comeback. Of course, due to his injury, the Rockies declined a $4.25MM option to retain his services after the season ended.
Betancourt’s entire career to this point has been split between the Indians and the Rockies. He took over as Colorado’s closer in 2011 and saved 31 games for the Rox in 2012. Always an excellent setup man in Cleveland (with the exception of a fluke 2008 season), Betancourt stepped up his game with the Rockies and posted a 3.08 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 57 saves in 236 1/3 innings with Colorado from 2009-13.
Blue Jays To Sign Ryan Rowland-Smith
The Blue Jays and left-hander Ryan Rowland-Smith have agreed to a minor league pact with a June 1 opt-out date, reports MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). Rowland-Smith elected free agency earlier in the week rather than accepting an outright assignment from the Diamondbacks.
The 31-year-old Aussie native has been significantly better as a reliever than a starter throughout his career; he’s posted a 3.77 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 100 1/3 innings coming out of the bullpen compared to a 4.87 ERA and 5.40 FIP in 269 2/3 innings as a starter.
Rowland-Smith, a client of Frye McCann Sports, made a return to the Majors with the D’Backs this season after a three-year absence and allowed four earned runs with nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings of relief. The Blue Jays’ bullpen has struggled tremendously over the past week, so it’s not a huge surprise to see them adding some depth to the mix.
White Sox Claim Hector Noesi
The White Sox have claimed right-hander Hector Noesi off waivers from the Rangers, Texas executive VP of communications John Blake tweets. Noesi was designated for assignment by the Rangers earlier this week.
This is Noesi’s third team is two weeks, as Texas just acquired him from Seattle on April 12. Noesi threw 4 1/3 scoreless innings in his first two appearances as a Ranger and was then hammered for seven runs in a single inning of work on April 20 against (ironically) the White Sox. The righty has an ungainly 14.21 ERA for the season and owns a career 5.81 ERA over 196 2/3 IP with the Mariners, Rangers and Yankees.
With Noesi claimed, it leaves only Steve Pearce (Orioles) and Matt Daley (Yankees) in DFA limbo according to the MLB Trade Rumors DFA Tracker.
Mets Notes: Dice-K, Hanrahan, Drew, D’Backs
Daisuke Matsuzaka picked up his first Major League save last night, though it probably isn’t going to be the start of a new career path for the veteran right-hander. Matsuzaka only got the call since Kyle Farnsworth had pitched in three of the Mets’ previous four games and was being rested, and as Fangraphs’ Paul Swydan points out, Dice-K doesn’t fit the traditional closer profile. Anything is possible given the Mets’ unsettled closing situation, however, so be sure to keep following @CloserNews, MLBTR’s sister Twitter feed, for the very latest on ninth-inning personnel changes.
Here’s some news from Citi Field…
- The Mets still haven’t decided whether or not to pursue free agent reliever Joel Hanrahan, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reports. The team has been weighing its options for several days now since watching Hanrahan throw at a showcase last week. Almost 20 teams watched Hanrahan throw, so the Mets may face competition if they do decide to make the righty an offer, though an evaluator tells Martino that Hanrahan is still roughly a month away from being able to contribute.
- Also from Martino, there still isn’t anything brewing between the Mets and Stephen Drew, as “there is no momentum” between the two sides.
- Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog.com agrees that a Drew signing looks like a major longshot, and the Mets are more likely to promote Wilmer Flores from Triple-A than acquire a shortstop like Drew or the Mariners’ Nick Franklin.
- If the Mets do deal for a shortstop, Cerrone believes the Diamondbacks are New York’s best option as a trade partner. The two clubs at least discussed a trade during Spring Training and scouted each other’s prospects. According to Cerrone, the D’Backs liked right-hander Rafael Montero and catchers Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki, though Plawecki alone wouldn’t have been enough to secure a deal. All three are ranked amongst the Mets’ top prospects by Baseball America, though Montero and d’Arnaud in particular would take major offers for the Mets to consider a trade.