The Cubs have bought low on another once-promising right-hander, as they’ve announced the acquisition Jacob Turner from the Marlins in exchange for minor league right-handers Tyler Bremer and Jose Arias. Chicago placed a claim on Turner earlier this week after Miami designated the once prized prospect for assignment and placed him on revocable waivers.
Turner, who only recently turned 23, is a former first-round pick of the Tigers, and it wasn’t long ago that he was regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects. Acquired by Miami as the centerpiece to 2012’s Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante trade with Detroit, Turner has struggled with the Marlins and was designated for assignment because he is out of minor league options. While the Marlins reportedly had lost patience with Turner after his struggles in both the rotation and the bullpen, the move is a curious one for a team that typically doesn’t spend much; cost-controllable starters with this type of upside are hard to come by, and Turner’s rotation spot will reportedly be filled by Brad Penny, making this decision a puzzling one, to say the least.
Though Turner’s ERA jumped from 3.74 last year (in 118 innings) to 5.97 in this year’s 78 1/3 innings, there’s plenty to like about the rest of his numbers in 2014. Turner’s K/9 rate, swinging strike rate and average fastball velocity have all increased (though he has not shown a significant jump in the latter measure when taking into account only his innings as a starter). Meanwhile, his BB/9 rate has dipped from 4.1 to 2.6. He’s also seen his ground-ball rate spike from a solid 45.7 percent to a strong 51.3 percent this season. Sabermetric ERA estimators such as FIP (4.01), xFIP (3.93) and SIERA (3.98) all feel that Turner has been markedly better than his earned run average would suggest in 2014.
Turner, who signed a Major League deal out of the draft (before the CBA banned such contracts), has a $1MM option for next season and can be controlled via arbitration once he has accumulated three years of Major League service. He’s controllable through at least the 2018 season for the Cubs and represents a chance for Chicago to buy low on another talented but struggling arm, as they did in 2013 with Jake Arrieta.
Turner, of course, may never bounce back to the level which Arrieta has in 2014, but the marginal cost to acquire him made this a fairly easy call for president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer once the Rockies surprisingly neglected to make a claim.
The 24-year-old has a 3.10 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in in 52 1/3 innings of relief between Class-A Kane County and Class-A Advanced Daytona this season. Arias, a 23-year-old Dominican hurler, has a 1.77 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 40 2/3 innings at Kane County this season. Neither pitcher ranked among the Cubs’ top 30 prospects (per Baseball America) heading into the season.
ESPN’s Keith Law first broke the news of the trade (on Twitter). Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune tweeted that two Class-A pitchers were headed to the Marlins, with Law tweeting that both were relievers. Bremer’s brother, Noah, first tweeted his inclusion in the deal, while ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers tweeted that Arias was the second pitcher.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Great move by the Cubs
Meanwhile in Colorado…
(snoring)
Dan O’Dowd needs to be fired. His time is up. The Rockies are going no where, fast.
Can’t say because I don’t follow Rockies much, but why didn’t they trade anyone at deadline? Jorge de la Rosa is a free agent after season right? Seems to me they could have got something for him.
Jorge’s injury history might scare some teams, but numerous teams (supposedly including my Pirates) have asked about him over the last few years. I agree with you.
As one of the few arms who stays healthy and pitches well at Coors, we kind of have to hold on to him. He can be given a qualifying offer and seems to like being here. JDLR is worth more to the Rockies that he would be to anyone else.
The Rockies DFA’d Jason Pridie on Wednesday to make roster space for the call-up of 29-year-old journeyman Brooks Brown, who hasn’t ended a MiLB season with an ERA under 4 since 2007 and just got his first MLB action this year.
All they needed was a barely-competent pitcher, and instead they were GIFTED the chance to get one who actually has some value and some legitimate upside. They would have had virtually complete leverage and would’ve given up essentially nothing in return, but passed. Unbelievable, really.
I saw Brooks Brown pitch last year in AAA Indy, and this year with the Rockies. To call him a journeyman is almost an insult to journeymen. He has no business sniffing the major leagues.
Dick Monfort has what he calls the Rockies “culture,” if a player or executive fits into that culture, he has a job for life. However if he doesn’t they will bad mouth him and send him packing for pennies on the dollar (ala Dexter Fowler last year) Tulo will probably go the same route after a major blow up with ownership. I really wish I could go back in time and never become a Rockies fan, but I am in too deep now.
Largely, yes.
All of this is true. I don’t know how you determine who has the worst organization in baseball but we HAVE to make the shortlist.
This was a no-brainer, how in God’s name could we have dropped the ball on this one? Like getting up Christmas morning, seeing a pile of shiny gifts with your name on them and thinking: “Nah, I’ll just run away from home and be a rent boy.”
NIce to see the Cubs exploits the Marlins bonehead move in dropping Jacob Turner. Dude hasn’t been great but he’s still young (no options, also.)
What a steal !
2 class-A? Cubs overpaid.
I’d say Turner has more upside than two Low-A receivers.
Low-A relievers…
Two relatively old class-A pitchers. This looks like a great move by a great front office.
Still more than what we got for Cody Ross.
I agree Cody Ross should have gotten more in return back in 2010, but that was more of a salary dump. If the Marlins really wanted a piece or two back, they should have traded him before the deadline.
2 Class A relievers according to Law.
Winners – Cubs
Losers – Marlins & Rockies
Yeah, the Marlins lost this one. If they had just demoted him for the millionth time instead of trading him, the Marlins would be much better off.
Oh wait, he was out of options! Guess we should’ve watched him give up run after run every five days instead of trading him! No wait, send him back to the bullpen where he somehow managed to fail in almost every relief appearance! We sure lost this one!
I’d rather have Turner, Marisnick and Moran than Cosart, Bremer and Arias.
Okay have fun building a team around them…
…and you think they can build a team around Tyler Bremer? Great point.
No, they were going to get rid of turner anyway and they at least got something for him.
Yet they gave away two top-100 prospects to get Jacob Turner 2.0 from the Astros.
Yes a guy hitting just over .100 and someone struggling to get their ops over .700 in A ball for two major leaguers and a replacement for marisnick, I’m sure they are having sleepless nights.
Yeah, clearly that franchise is brilliantly managed.
Seems like I forgot the part where Marisnick is the next mike trout and Moran is the second coming of David Wright.
You also forgot the part where Jarred Cosart is the next Jacob Turner.
Andrew Heaney has been pretty bad this year too. If they hurry, maybe the Marlins can flip him for Kevin Correia.
Moran and marisnick haven’t been bad just this season more like their entire time in the organization and not for lack of opportunity. And please I fail to see your comp of Cosart to Turner, Cosart is more comparable to a pitcher like Henderson Alvarez but of course you seem to be the expert here.
This is just specious reasoning. The Marlins FO tied their own hands with their handling of Turner. They were responsible for him being out of options in the first place.
No they weren’t the tigers used up two of the options, they didn’t have much to work with.
They knew that when they traded for him. And they still blew it. That’s mismanagement.
I’m sure they expected him to struggle this badly, there is only so much an organization can do if players can’t produce when given the opportunity then how can you blame them. And we are all talking as if he will succeed with the cubs.
Absolutely, Turner is culpable in his failures to this point, but I’m gobsmacked that you can’t see how the Marlins FO backed themselves into a corner with him.
How so? They saw potential and gave him playing time , he struggled at the start of last season and used up his last option. He came back and pitched well but he struggled severely this year. The organization did everything they could I don’t see how the blame could be put on them.
It occurs to me that–as a Marlins fan–you may have a different perception of your team than I do. In my observation, the Marlins are the type of team that can afford to have a young pitcher with promise–and who has shown success as recently as last year–struggle. Then again, I don’t see them as realistically vying for a playoff spot. I agree with the overwhelming assessment in the press that they got fleeced in the Cosart trade. I look at FIP and xFIP and see little difference in Cosart and Turner. I see that awful trade and their overall impatience with Turner as mismanagement.
What do you see?
I see that they traded two prospects that have lived up to their potential for a guy with the stuff and upside similar to that of a pitcher like Henderson Alvarez. Yes I am a Marlins fan but it doesn’t mean my mind is shrouded with biased thoughts, while I agree with the general opinion that the marlins should’ve traded him sooner, during the time he has been with the organization I haven’t seen any mismanagement whatsoever in regards to him. And yes I do have a different perception as a Marlins fan because I watch every game and see the product on the field and I’m able to see the organization for what it does not like others that jump to the conclusion that everything the Marlins do is wrong.
Search for ” Marlins Make Mistake Giving up on Jacob Turner Too Soon.”
Turner may indeed never pull it back together, but there was a lot of ways the Marlins could have made this right.
And, in regards to this:
I gotta tell you, in most cases, I assume nothing about what the Marlins do, as I rarely think about them. Judging from attendance figures, I assume the same goes for their fans.
Have a good weekend and good luck in the Wild Card race!
Judging from their rising attendance figures you can see the fans support the product put on the field, but unnecessary jabs aside I meant that every transaction done by the Marlins is seen as if they were “fleeced” or ” just another salary dump” even when it’s minor moves like this.
And in regards to Turner what else could they have done? Put him out every 5 days to get shelled? I’m sure the fans and Turner’s confidence would enjoy that.
guys I don’t have a side in the argument between you two, but I would just say you’re both part right. 1) sometimes you just have to admit things aren’t working out, and cut your losses and move on. See also Cubs/Zambrano/Stewart. Miami tried to get this guy to turn it around, and it just didn’t happen. But on the other hand 2) The marlins could have managed to get more for him before the waiver deadline. They painted themselves into a corner by having no other options (in both senses of the word) with turner and only being able to negotiate with one team. See what the O’s got for Jake Arrietta, and the Felix Dubront jury is still out.
Let’s all hug it out.
This point I will concede. I was inarticulate above; the Tigers were the ones that started the clock. That said, the team that makes this trade has to be prepared to be patient through the rough times.
Agreed, well managed teams wait until after Aug. 1 to handle under-performing young players.
Why would you want to trade them in July for a halfway decent prospect when you can get debris in August?
When the Cubs look back 5 years from now and have to live down the Arias trade after he performs adequately as a triple a reliever, it will be tough. Lou Brock part 2.
Okay let’s stop pretending that Turner is the biggest steal since Ruth. Sure he can succeed and become a good 3/4 starter for the cubs but he could also continue to struggle and fade away like many former top prospects before him.
This is a great point that I keep forgetting. If they were that close to giving up on Turner, why wait until after the deadline. This was just a boner, severely pulled.
Turner was once a Top 50 Prospect Pitcher……at 23, Turner still has time to turn it around…..and Cubs pitching coach Bosio has done wonders in the past with Maholm, Feldman & Hammels.
While Edwin Jackson, Randy Wells, Chris Volstad, and others say otherwise. Turner has upside but only time will tell. Marlins are competing this year and don’t have time to be patient with him to figure it out after not doing so already.
Their playoff odds are 2.3%. Replacing Turner with Brad Penny does not change that (and could well make it less likely).
High potential reward with pretty much zero risk. Anytime you can make a move like that, you do it. It’s a good thing for Chicago that the Rockies pitching is so deep.
Arietta
Wood
Turner
Hendricks
Looking good
They have the money to go out and further bolster their rotation this offseason too.
Agreed, Cubs don’t have a single bad contract except for Edwin Jackson which at least isn’t prohibitively expensive. Plenty of money and flexibility to sign a free agent pitcher.
Looking good?
Long way to go
That’s a bad rotation.
Kind of like the Orioles’ rotation of stunningly average arms.
Nats fan here. Don’t mind the Os though.
Eh, still the point is that there are less than stellar rotations on good teams.
put a legit #1 in front of Arietta — say Lester or Scherzer — and it’s pretty damn good. people who haven’t been watching the Cubs wouldn’t know, but the best pitcher we had was not Samardzija or Hammel — Arietta has been legit. Hendricks has been a revelation and looks like a quality inning-eating groundball machine up to the job of a #3, much as he was forecast to be. slot Turner in #4, and he’d be one of the best #4 starters in the majors.
Die hard Cubs fan here. This is an awful rotation if Travis Wood is our #2 pitcher. Jake Arrieta has been great, but it’s really only been a half a season. Where is Edwin Jackson? He wont be a 13mil/year reliever.
they’re going to move Jackson for very little this winter, i expect. with Turner and Doubront both out of options and requiring space on the 25-man, there won’t be room.
but that doesn’t mean this isn’t a decent rotation if it gets fronted by a #1 from free agency. Arrietta, Hendricks, Turner is a very viable 2-3-4 — the xFIP of those three in total is likely under 3.5. Wood as a #5 starter, with a bit of very likely mean reversion in %LOB, would mop the floor with any other #5 in the NL.
Looking questionable
Arietta and Hendricks are solid, Wood is awful and Turner is not a major league ready player right now.
The cubs, Braves and Cardinals are the best run teams in the NL
Braves?
Braves build very well from within and are consistently at the top of their division. They develop talent well and spend wisely in free agency.
Spend wisely in free agency? Have you seen their recent signings? I don’t disagree with building from within they’ve done a nice job but keeping Fredi around is hurting the team.
BJ.. Uggla.. Extending Chris Johnson. Terrible moves.
When’s the last time the Cubs were above 500?
When is the last time their farm system was ranked #1?
They give out rings for that?
Apparently…
Red Sox, Cardinals, Giants, Phillies, White Sox, Marlins, Angels
All world series champions since 2000, all had tons of homegrown talent on their rosters, all had great farm systems the years before they won.
The Yankees, the Diamondbacks, and to some extent the 2004 Red Sox were the only team that arguably bought their rings with free agents.
It was a mix of good farm systems and filling out holes in free agency and trading some of the farm, so the cubs have a good farm it’s what they do with it and the money they have for free agency that matters or you’ll have to carry that argument for the next couple of years.
When did the White Sox have a great farm system?
Are you too young to remember the early 1990s?
Of course, those players weren’t on the 2006 team, so I have no idea what Barry was talking about.
I’ll admit it was a stretch.
Homegrown talent on the WS roster: Buehrle, Garland, Crede, Rowand
Podsednik was acquired by trading homegrown talent in Carlos Lee
It’s also the farm system that produced Magglio Ordonez a few years prior.
Just showing they did produce some quality major league talent.
Also they by no means bought their title. Konerko, Garcia, Urbie, Blum, Contreras, Everett were all acquired by trades
Iguchi, Dye, Hermanson, Pierzynski were the only free agents
Jenks was selected off waivers
Garland was not homegrown White Sox talent, traded from the Cubs very early on. He developed mostly with the Sox, but was not drafted.
We’ll see how that translates to wins in 2-3 years. Can’t really claim “best run organization” with such recent major league futility.
2002
As a marlins fan always saw lots of potential but watching his starts this year has been tough, hopefully he can succeed in Chicago and live up to his potential like Arrieta has.
I hope that he succeeds for Chicago in more parks than just Coors Field.
every pitcher has bad days at Coors.
Edited, lol my bad
😉
I’m sure a lot of Rockies fans are still wondering why your original sentence isn’t the case.
I wonder if the Marlins will ever say why they gave up on Turner so soon?
I mean that was a big deal trade and now they really have nothing to show for it.
People forget that anibal was a rental and no way were the marlins going to give him the money Detroit gave up at the time it was a nice haul for what they gave up, it just didn’t really work out.
He was out of minor league options and was abysmal as a MLB starter this season and even worse as a reliever. They would’ve preferred if he went to the minors and worked out his issues, but because he had no options, they had no choice but to waive him. Also, instead of getting nothing for him, they got TWO nothings! Go Marlins!
As an Orioles fan, you obviously don’t know how dreadful it was to see him take the mound every five days. He had some potential but he always seemed to suffer from that one inning, so you’d think moving him to the bullpen would be a good idea. Just one problem though – almost EVERY relief inning he pitched WAS that one inning. Ideally someone with his potential should have been demoted, but that’s hard to do when he’s out of options. Quite frankly the front office’s hands were tied.
Well, I guess I wouldn’t being an Orioles fan =P
However from reading all the comments, why did Turner run out of options so soon? Chris Tillman bounced around for a couple of years between the minors and majors. While he might be out of options now, I would almost swear he has been in the majors longer then Turner.
So, I am at a loss with Turner here
Tigers called him up when he was 20 and I think used up 2 of his options, the marlins used up the last one starting the 2013 season because of struggles in spring training.
You can only burn one option per year, regardless of how many times he goes up and down.
Yes I know but they called him up at 20 and again the year he was traded so he only had one option year left which was used up in 2013
Here’s where the Marlins do take the blame:
After our dreadful start to the 2012 season, we became sellers at the trade deadline and our esteemed former GM Larry Beinfest, after seeing how magnificently the Miguel Cabrera trade worked out, decided that it was an A++++ transaction and did business with the Tigers again, this time shipping Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante off for a package headlined by Jacob Turner, and to justify that rushed him to the major league roster to help offset the loss of Sanchez.
I get Turner still has potential, however I don’t get the universal acclaim here. He has been terrible in his major league opportunities so far.
Still young and has the stuff, with the cubs he has the playing time and coaching he might need.
Because of pitchers like Arietta who just need some time and/or a change of scenery. We’ll see if this works out for the Cubs. It’s worth a gamble
This is also he first time Arrieta has shown anything. I watched him with the Os. Gave up nine earned last start. I doubt Arrieta is more than league average next year.
I wouldn’t read much into a single bad start in Coors Field. He was good for the Cubs last year too. And more to the point, he was a highly-regarded prospect. It’s not like nobody ever thought he could be a good pitcher. Same deal with Turner.
And at the end of the day, if they both flop, what did the Cubs lose? A couple of low-A relievers who aren’t well regarded and a rental pitcher. That’s why the acclaim. We picked up guys who people thought could be front-line pitchers for table scraps.
One bad start? You’re right, he’s gonna be awful forever.
3-5 years of mediocrity prior to his half year of success. Could be an outlier.
It could be. Completely changing his approach on the mound leads me to believe hat he has a chance at continuing this success.
Very true.
We will definitely have to play the wait game to see if he can keep it up. Jose Bautista is a good example. Mediocre for a few years, changed some mechanics in his swing and has been pretty darn good for 2 (or 3, dont remember) years now.
Well, yes, but the guy has obvious high-level stuff–and if he doesn’t work out, all you’ve lost is two class-A roster fillers. That’s the ultimate no-lose scenario.
he’s just 23. the list of really great pitchers who didn’t put it together until 24 or 25 is very long. his stuff is great, big groundball rate, fine control — this is a huge heist. the Cubs literally gave up a 24-year-old A-ball reliever and a Rule 5 candidate — the baseball equivalent of nothing — for a 23-year-old former first rounder who has compiled a 3.93 xFIP this year. that is just larceny.
Agree with everything except the “fine control”
walks haven’t been his problem, though, generally speaking. he’s exhibited excellent command for most of his career — career minors figure is 2.5 per nine, which is in line with his major league data but for parts of 2013.
his career walk rates are around 2.5 per nine, which is about what his MLB data reflects excepting parts of 2013. command isn’t his problem. some bad luck on %LOB and BABIP is.
So when does the shoe drop on Edwin Jackson? Wish they would eat them one and move on but my guess is Wada goes down to AAA until September to make room for Turner.
He has potential. There was no reason for hit to be up when he was 20 though. Tigers rushed him and then the Marlins did the same. Kid should have had a solid 4 years in the minors instead of being bounced around like a ping pong ball. Now he has to stay in the majors. I guess we’ll see how he does with the Cubs.
Aw yis
All Hail Jeb Epstein.
The return: Tyler Bremer and Jose Arias. Two low-A reliever, 24 and 23 years old. Nice, job Cubs FO.
Love the move for the Cubs. Chris Bosio has had a lot of success with a similar style of pitcher for the Cubs already.
So he will be on Cubs active roster or In AAA?
He’ll be on the active roster, since he has no options remaining.
I think he has to be on the active roster when claimed.
Another conclusion of the fact that Dave Dombrowski is an absolute genius. I’d hate to see him leave the Tiger’s GM position but if he were to leave for the Commissioner’s job then I think the game of baseball would be better; for it.
Not a finalist for the position so you have nothing to worry about.
The Marlins must have liked those prospects from the Cubs. Obviously the Marlins contacted the Rockies and asked what they would give up for Turner. Evidently they didn’t offer anything. Very odd, Colorado.
Marlins have no power to determine who claims their players.
In a way, they did. It’s easy to see the order of claiming teams. It’s as simple as placing a phone call to Colorado and Chicago to see if they were interested in claiming Turner.
no, they didn’t.
They may have had trade talks before and after the deadline, but there can be no formal agreements made unless you want the commissioners office to come down on you like the wrath of an angry deity for nakedly subverting the system.
The only reason the Marlins ‘liked’ those prospects from the Cubs because it was them or nothing. And the Only reason Colorado likely passed, and the Cubs put in a claim, was because the Rockies assumed they could get him for free in the irrevocable waiver round.
If Rockies wanted him for free, could’ve just claimed, offered nothing, then claimed again. They just whiffed (even if Turner doesn’t amount to anything).
All the Rockies had to do was put in a claim. If a trade wasn’t worked out, Turner would have ended up on outright waivers anyway. And then they’d have been able to claim him.
Only reason the Cubs gave up anything in return is that they might have worried that the Rockies would see the light and claim Turner in the meantime.
The most mind-numbing part for COL is that they actually cleared a 40-man spot for a pitching call-up on the same day they passed on Turner.
Thanks, Jeff. Absolutely mind-numbing.
Cubs DFA Ryan Kalish to make room for Turner
Knew the Marlins werent going to get anything. They had zero Leverage over a deal. You knew they wanted to at least get something for Turner so ya
One of the most puzzling moves I’ve ever seen. The Marlins certainly have lots of pitching depth, but Turner is far too young to label him as a complete bust. If they were going to move him why not do it last week?
Sign Scherzer and Lester for a top 1-2 punch and only giving up a second round pick
That’s an over $300 million investment……Ricketts won’t do that.
I can see them signing one of them and maybe another starter like Jason Hammel but not both.
Does anyone know if the Cubs plan on adding him to the rotation or will he be going to the bullpen?
Hate to say it, but the Cubs (under Theo Epstein) are steadily building a real powerhouse! Like Ernie Banks used to say … “Wait ’til next year!”