A year ago, Melky Cabrera’s value was at its nadir. After a PED suspension cut short his 2012 breakout season with the Giants, and after he left the team under bizarre circumstances, Cabrera became a free agent and landed a relatively meager two-year, $16MM deal with the Blue Jays. He then began that deal by hitting a disappointing .279/.322/.360 in his first year in Toronto, then had surgery in September to remove a benign tumor from his back.
Since then, though, a healthier Cabrera has improved his bargaining position, hitting a much better .301/.351/.458 in his walk year and emerging as one of the better hitters available in a very weak free agent class. Perhaps even more importantly, he’s another year removed from his PED troubles, and his good season, along with even better seasons from Jhonny Peralta and Nelson Cruz, might suggest that teams this offseason will be less wary of suspended players than they have been in the recent past.
Cabrera now is out for the rest of the season with a fracture in his right pinky, an injury that could have some effect on his market as a free agent. He’s had surgery and should be ready for spring training, although the injury could theoretically have a lingering effect on his power.
Still, Cabrera is likely to get a sizable deal, given the weakness of the outfield market. Rusney Castillo has already signed with the Red Sox, and there’s another Cuban outfielder, the very promising Yasmany Tomas, who’s currently waiting to be declared a free agent. There’s also Cruz, who will be coming off a very good offensive season but is already in his mid-thirties and has significant defensive limitations.
After that, there’s Cabrera, and then a significant drop-off. The best remaining outfielders are the aging, injury-prone Michael Cuddyer; the defensively challenged Michael Morse and Josh Willingham; and light-hitting types like Nori Aoki and Emilio Bonifacio. There will also be Colby Rasmus, a 28-year-old who has hit well at times and can play center field, but who was recently benched by the Jays. And the market could also include players like Nick Markakis and Alex Rios, depending on the statuses of their options.
Leaving aside Tomas, there isn’t anyone on the outfield market who’s better rounded than Cabrera, even if one counts his PED past as a strike against him. Unlike Cruz, Morse or Willingham, he isn’t a terrible fielder (although he isn’t a great one, either). Unlike Aoki or Bonifacio, he has power. Unlike Cruz and Cuddyer, he’s still relatively young, at 30. And unlike Rasmus, he isn’t a complete question mark. The outfield market is full of dubious options. Teams considering punting on the left field position in order to upgrade their offense elsewhere won’t have much to work with, either.
Even better for Cabrera, there could be plenty of teams on the prowl for a corner outfielder this offseason. The Astros, Athletics, Mariners, Mets, Orioles, Phillies, Reds, Twins and White Sox could all make some degree of sense for Cabrera, depending on how the rest of the market shakes out. Cabrera has said that he wants to return to the Blue Jays, and a return to Toronto might be a good fit as well. The Jays have Jose Bautista in right, and assuming Rasmus departs, they’ll probably soon have top prospect Dalton Pompey as their regular starter in center. But they don’t have a stellar option in left field.
Given Cabrera’s performance, a potentially vigorous market and the Jays’ own need for an outfielder, extending Cabrera a qualifying offer seems like an obvious decision. Such an offer should help the Jays limit other teams’ interest (particularly from teams like the Mets and Reds, who currently look to have two of the first unprotected picks in next year’s draft), and could lead to some sort of multiyear agreement for him to remain in Toronto.
As long as teams aren’t worried about the lingering effects of his hand injury, Cabrera’s representatives at the Legacy Agency should be able to swing at least a three-year deal. Last month, Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star polled various agents who suggested he could get anywhere from $36MM to $45MM over a three-year deal, meaning that the three-year, $39MM deal Shane Victorino received from the Red Sox before the 2013 season might be a precedent. A four-year deal might also be a possibility, with Cabrera’s camp possibly pointing to last offseason’s contracts for Curtis Granderson and Peralta.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I think he goes to Seattle for 4/52
Certainly possible with his good friend Robinson Cano playing in Seattle. Still, I believe he’s got way too many close friends on the Jays to at least not entertain an offer.
I dunno. If he wants to stay in Toronto, 4/52 would be easy for the Jays to swallow. But their owners like to clamp the purse strings at the most ridiculous times, so who knows.
Please, no. Cabrera should play on 1 or 2 year deals. I like the idea of guys caught doing PEDs can only get 1 year deals. He’s probably on an adderall exemption this year. MLB needs to publish it’s PEDs exemption list.
I dunno if I’m down with the idea of the MLB publishing private medical information, especially when the only purpose of doing so would be so fans could harass players about it.
I get it. But why should guys get to use PEDs when others can’t? If my favorite team has to compete with a rival that has guys using, um, I mean prescribed a performance enhancer then that my team is at a disadvantage. Fine, don’t tell us. Just put an asterisk next to their name in the box score. 😀
I agree that some guys are surely abusing the system, but it’s not worth stigmatizing actual physical and mental health conditions over. What you’re proposing is skirting a dangerous boundary of equating needing medication and being a cheater. There’s actually already a high level of self doubt/feelings of being a “fake” among people who are prescribed ADD medication/anti-anxiety medication/antidepressants/etc, and doing something like this would only reinforce those notions in young fans.
Either Chris Davis has ADD or ADHD or whatever or he doesn’t. He was prescribed Adderall last year and has either has had his meds changed or didn’t really “need” them. If his Rx has been changed then there has to be medications that don’t fall into the performance enhancing department. No one should be using Adderall in the majors if it’s a banned substance. If that means they can’t play in the majors, so be it. Playing in Major League Baseball is not a right, it’s a privilege. It’s just not right to suspend one guy but let others play for contracts while enhanced.
So a player (not necessarily talking about Chris Davis) who suffers from ADHD but who would be fine with medication shouldn’t be allowed to play because some people are cheating? How would you like it if you needed medication for something and someone said you couldn’t do your favorite thing because of it?
If the medicine is on the list of peds he can take it, but he shouldn’t be allowed to play. It’s not fair. Find another medication not on the list. ADHD is no different than an injury. If having the condition means he can’t function at a high level that’s too bad. Should we allow people to take steroids because their bodies are to old and can’t recover?
Well, you’ve become totally unreasonable, so I’m done with this thread. Have a good one!
I’m not being unreasonable. Michael Morse said he took PEDs to recover from an injury that may have ended his career. He was penalized. Mark McGuire took andro and possibly other things to extend his career. As soon as he got heat for the andro he stopped and his legs fell apart. When Bonds quit, his knees broke down. There is a reason certain drugs are on the list. People can use them all they want, but they shouldn’t be allowed to play. People outside of sports make these decisions all the time.
Why should a banned substance be allowed for any reason?
You assume all players are taking Adderall for purposes of helping them with their ADD and ADHD. It’s been proven that people in the world of bodybuilding take Adderall because of its Diuretic properties. Adderall is a Diuretic and Diuretic’s are banned in many sports because of there ability to dilute a drug test sample specifically that of masking steroid use.
ADD can be prescribed with a improper diagnosis. I’m sure the 100’s of athletes that have gotten steroids in the past through a doctor didn’t have the best excuse to purchase them either and I’m really sure MLB doesn’t have 10% of it’s athletes having ADD as it supposedly does right now.
It would be Gose not Pompey in CF next year.
I would be wary of a former PED user’s resurgence. Is it because they somehow found their swing again, or is it because they found something else, that cannot be easily detected, to take?
Or, in this case, it could be because last off-season they removed a tumour the size of a baseball from his lower back and spine.
I guess I need to learn to read, missed that in the above article. Wow. But in general I see PED users that seem to have an off year only to come back stronger, which is a bit curious.
don’t hold your breath. the reason so few QO are accepted is because they’re 1-year deals. most players, even the mediocre ones, want length more than they want AAV. with baseball contracts guaranteed, the years count for far more than the money up front. Doesn’t take a sinister plot to help a ballplayer figure out he’s better off taking his chances on the open market if he’s healthy.
Well, they’re few cases like Kevin Youkillis for one, that accepted a 1 year deal by a team because they felt they could increase their value for the next contract. Unfortunately, that rarely works and players should always go after a multi-year deal as a sort of “insurance”.
Did you see what happened to last year’s middle tier class who were offered the QO?
The real reason no one took the QO is because it’s a new system that’s only two years old and no one knew how rough the market would be on draft pick compensation players. Some players will take the QO this year.
Even more likely is teams being smart enough not to offer QO’s to borderline guys who are now more likely to accept those offers.
This ^^^^
Teams AND players will adjust. I expect less teams to offer a QO because I suspect more players will be likely to take it. Is Cruz really guaranteed to do better than 1/$15M? His great year notwithstanding, he has had a whole bunch of years when we was worth less than $15M. He’s essentially a DH now (or should be). And he’s playing on a competitive team. If I’m Cruz, I’d think long and hard about accepting a QO.
No player took a QO last year. That was reported here. Only 13 QO were made. No player took a QO the previous year. Seems like teams know what they are doing. Bottom line; no team is going to make a QO to any player they are not willing to pay at least the going rate (for 2015 approx $15M).
The number of QO will be proportional to the assessed value of each pending FA. A team, unless they despise a player with that value on the market, and want to get rid of them at any cost, would be stupid not to offer a QO and give up the compensation pick.
Have you looked at the crop of potential free agents? No GM goes, “Well my team finished 70-92 last season. I’m sure keeping the same team and making no additions will suddenly make this team better. I don’t have to worry about my job next season.”
Someone will sign these guys for the sake of signing them, look at Granderson’s signing, horrible deal for a who had a really bad year in 2013 and is unable to hit out of the shift since that’s his power game. His signing made no sense for a team not close to competing.