One of the game’s best defensive third basemen reaches free agency this winter in Chase Headley.Ā Headley’s MVP-caliber 2012 season saw his offense reach lofty heights, but two years later that’s looking like an anomaly.
Strengths/Pros
Headley’s only Gold Glove award came in that magical 2012 season, but he’s got a good chance at another one this year.Ā By measure of Ultimate Zone Rating, Headley was the best defensive third baseman in baseball in 2014.Ā If you prefer Defensive Runs Saved, Headley ranked third.Ā He was a top ten defender in 2012 and ’13 as well, so it’s not just a one-year fluke.
Headley’s defense is a major contributor to his value, leading to roughly four wins above replacement in each of the last two seasons.Ā His WAR ranks tenth among all third basemen for 2013-14, easily ahead of this offseason’s likely top-paid third baseman, Pablo Sandoval.Ā At worst, Headley is Sandoval’s equal, but defense hasn’t caught up with offense in terms of free agent spending.
Headley hit .286/.376/.498 with 31 home runs for the Padres in 2012, despite playing half his games in San Diego.Ā 19 of those home runs came in the season’s final two months.Ā He hit .269/.343/.392 prior to that season and .246/.338/.387 since, and it’s not hard to see that one of these is not like the others.Ā However,Ā the switch-hitting Headley remains capable of a solid on-base percentage, posting a .371 OBP and walk rate near 13% in his 224 plate appearances for the Yankees this year.Ā He is, on the whole, still an above average hitter.
Having been traded midseason, Headley is not eligible for a qualifying offer.Ā Fellow free agents Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez will certainly require draft pick forfeiture, and perhaps Aramis Ramirez too, but Headley is free of that limitation.
Weaknesses/Cons
Prior to being traded to the Yankees, Headley hit an abysmal .229/.296/.355 for the Padres in 307 plate appearances.Ā His Padres’ walk rate of 7.2% was well below his career norm.
Upon the trade, Tony Blengino of FanGraphs examined Headley’s batted ball profile, and it wasn’t promising.Ā Headley was in “steady offensive decline,” wrote Blengino, who explained, “his decline in batted-ball production has been solely attributable to diminished fly ball authority.”Ā Did Headley’s 224 plate appearances after the trade represent a reliable return to form?Ā That will be a crucial question for offseason suitors.
Headley’s recent injury history may be perceived as a negative, though it could also be considered an explanation for his offensive struggles in the first half of the season.Ā He received an epidural in June and avoided going on the DL for his back.Ā After the epidural, Headley hit .273/.359/.400 in 312 plate appearances.
Personal
Headley was born in Colorado and resides in Tennessee with his family.Ā The Headleys recently welcomed a new baby into the world, their second child.Ā According to the Padres’ 2014 media guide, Headley played varsity baseball and basketball all four years in high school in Colorado, and was also valedictorian.Ā He began college at University of the Pacific in California and later transferred to the University of Tennessee, where his older brother was attending.
According to a profile by MLB.com’s Corey Brock in January 2013, Headley owns a large farm in Western Kentucky and has a passion for bow hunting.Ā A religious man since his freshman year in high school, Headley told Mark E. Darnall and Bruce A. Darnall in 2012, “My goal is to have Jesus be the center of everything.”
Market
Any team without an established, reliable third baseman could consider Headley this offseason.Ā Given the uncertainty that comes with Alex Rodriguez, a return to the Yankees is possible.Ā The Red Sox, Astros, Royals, Brewers, Giants, Blue Jays, and Nationals could also seek help at third base, though some of those clubs might only want a short-term solution.
Headley’s competition on the free agent market will include Pablo Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, and Hanley Ramirez.Ā Whether Aramis Ramirez hits the open market could be a big factor for Headley, as well as whether Hanley Ramirez signs as a third baseman.Ā The trade market could feature Luis Valbuena, Trevor Plouffe, and Pedro Alvarez.
Expected Contract
Headley has never had a multiyear deal in his career, and I think he’ll value long-term security this offseason.Ā The question is whether he signs a three or four-year deal.Ā A few potential comparables to consider are Shane Victorino’s three-year, $39MM deal from two years ago and Jhonny Peralta’s four-year, $53MM deal from last offseason.Ā I think Headley will sign a four-year, $48MM deal.
Doubt he gets a Gold Glove this year since he played only 77 games in NL and 58 games in AL.
Nolan Arenado was hurt for awhile, though. He still played in 111 games and he’s probably the best defensive third baseman in the NL, but Headley having 135 games with a majority (~60%) in the NL could give it to him. They don’t have much competition. Uribe is excellent, but was also hurt. Sandoval isn’t in their class defensively, Frazier, Valbuena, A-Ram, Harrison/Alvarez, and Matt Carpenter don’t compare, and the NLE third baseman were either hurt or ineffective in Wright, CJ, McGehee, Asche. Rendon was good too, and would be my fourth choice behind Uribe, Arenado and Headley. Arenado, 111 games. Uribe, 103 games. Headley, 77 games, 135 games overall. I could certainly see Headley winning it. It’s a weak NL 3B class defensively.
Todd Frazier? His numbers are a bit skewed since he played some at first base.
I’d have Headley above him, but I’m admittedly not too familiar with Frazier’s defense, so I could be convinced otherwise.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&#… Doesn’t show Headley who had a great defensive year, but Frazier is probably behind Headley, but Headley played half as many games as Frazier.
Plus gold glove winners are typically having career batting years or are the best hitters at their position with exceptions. Examples would be Rafael Palmeiro getting the GG at first base despite being the DH all year, Ellsbury and Headley support the statement as well. Both are good fielders who never won the GG except for their very similar outlier career offensive years.
I feel like this mindset has been changing lately. The oft-cited Palmeiro example happened a decade and a half ago, while recently, the voting criteria has changed. It’s a lot better now than it ever has been before.
Point taken but the correlation of having career offensive years and winning the GG still is applicable. see Headley and Ellsbury. Both have had better defensive years with no gold gloves but add the offense and you get it. Gold Glove should be independent of hitting but it is not.
Are those stats right for defense? fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&#…
Shows Frazier #1 in UZR
EDIT: This particular chart is excluding Headley since he was in both leagues.
Let the prehistoric Yankees overpay for this guy.
Don’t rule out your Sox since WMB is pretty much a failure now.
unfortunately, you’re probably correct sir
And I think an offer similar to what Victorino got is pretty fair. I just can’t picture the Yankees (or any team for that matter) giving out a large contract to him. He honesty reminds me of Ubaldo Jiminez who got more than what most expected.
that’s about right I think, he’s no great player and he’s been living off that one big year like a one hit rock band that plays the same song 3 times a concert, but he’s a serviceable bottom of the order hitter and can at least catch and throw the ball to the right base…my point is, if someone is going to do something nuts like 5 – 6 years at 18 per, better it be NYY
Wishful thinking.
18 million per? Really?
The highest I could see Headley going for at absolute maximum would be 5/75. I would be stunned if he went for more. I think the 4/50 deal is fair.
My bet 2/25 with incentives and an option year. (bad back)
They would have to figure out if Xander will actually stick at ss long term, and Mookie seems like a lock to start somewhere.
“Pretty much” and “now” are being pretty kind xD
101 years old isn’t quite reaching prehistory, gotta go back to approx 3000 BCE for that one.
12MM aav seems right, he’s got a lot of value, just not as a middle of the order hitter.
I agree with the 4/48 projected contract. That’s probably what I’d give to Headley. I kind of hope he signs in a good offensive market for a contender.
The Yankees could have Headley. I’d prefer Sandoval for Boston.
Sandoval is going to get much more money.
I think Cherington is done with WMB even with his low salary
Cherington is most likely done with WMB, but I’m hoping they try to make a deal for someone with a shorter contract. Possibly Aramis Ramirez through FA or trade with Brewers depending on his option or possibly with the Rangers for Adrian Beltre though I’m not sure what the Rangers have waiting in the wings to take over third.
Red Sox need a lefty. Either Headley or Sandoval would get the job done. I’d prefer Sandoval for his offense because he’s an average defender and that is fine. We need some left handed pop.
I don’t think their need for a lefty would ever preclude acquiring two years of Adrian Beltre for 32 MM. That’s a deal you do every day if the prospect haul isn’t ridiculous.
You do that if your attempts to get a lefty fail. They shouldn’t deliberately build an uneven team. Beltre’s a fantastic hitter, and a great defender, but he’s not the player they’re looking for so he shouldn’t be the first thing they try.
The Rangers are probably still going to ask for a lot for Beltre. He’s going to be a Hall of Famer, and he’s still performing like a superstar. He’s affordable for both 2015 and 2016 (I think he’s owed ~32 MM) so he’s still got plenty of trade value, and if Texas traded him, it needs to seriously restock their farm. And they’ve got Joey Gallo for third, though the general sentiment is Gallo won’t stick there.
Texas’ best prospect, Joey Gallo, is a 3rd baseman.
But speaking of prospects, why don’t the Sox try Cecchini at third? Can’t be worse than WMB.
I think the thought is that Cech can’t stick defensively at 3B in the majors.
I told everyone in 2012 it was an anomaly. The amount of people he had convinced was nuts.
That was a fun time. Then there was all of those people calling for NY to trade for him, and the counter arguments that he was unattainable because of their farm, etc.
Granted I said the same thing about Ellsbury and we still got stuck with him.
2012 may have been an anomaly, but settling in as a 3.5-win player isn’t something to laugh at. He’s a good third baseman and will be paid decently after playing well down the stretch. The lack of any potential QO will be key for him in finding a similar deal to what Victorino and Peralta got.
I love the Headmans defense but if hes going for that type of deal I don’t see NY bringing him back
I would. Thats a pretty good price.
Side note.
You and MB having the same picture confuses me.
I’ll change mine sooner or later lol
He didn’t hit well enough this year to win the Gold Glove.
The saddest and truest comment.
Headley is the best defensive 3rd baseman available this off season but I think his market will be limited by the presence of Sandoval, Ramires and Hanley. Headley is offensively inferior to all 3.
I wouldn’t say he’s that much offensively inferior to Aramis Ramirez at this point. Aramis had a 109 wRC+ this year to Headley’s 103, and they both had exactly 531 PA. Over the last two years it’s 118-109, Aramis, and over the last three it’s 127-123 Aramis, but Aramis is at that age where you expect his offensive slide to continue going downward, while Headley could reasonable expected to continue to match his 2013-2014 109 wRC+ going forward. I would bet Headley outhits Aramis over the duration of each’s respective next contract.
As a Brewers fan, I would prefer signing Headley over A-Ram. There is no in-house replacement to be found in their farm system and with a $12M AAV he is a good value. Besides the Crew need to find some better defensive players to offset their inconsistent offense.
I hope the Yankees get him. His UZR is incredible.
great analysis – I have him signing somewhere for 50/4. Lots of posters on various NYY sites are severely lowballing what they think he is going to get. They should all read this article.
I would love if the Yankees could re-sign him for just 3 years / $39MM but it’s not my money so if 4 years / $52MM is what it takes “JUST DO IT”. Defensively he’s well worth it and offensively I think he showed enough after the Yankees acquired him in mid to late July to warrant being re-signed.
Single year defensive stats are some of the least reliable in the industry. His UZR was insane this year, but is was also so far out of line with the past few years that no smart GM will be paying him as some sort of Elite 3b. He’s a solid player but again his defensive year is as big of a career outlier as his offensive year was a few years ago.
He’s a thirty-year-old third baseman with above average offense and a five-year-average of +9 UZR per year, with his three year average closer to +12 UZR per year. If you take away 8 UZR from 2014 – thereby giving him a +12 – he still clocks in at a 3.5~ win player. He’s not Longoria, Beltre, Rendon, Machado, Hanley, or Donaldson, but I’d put him up near Seager, Panda, Carpenter, Frazier, Wright, Uribe and Arenado, and ahead of everyone else. He’s better than A-Ram at this point.
Agree that he has value….Just disagreeing with the fact that he should be paid as some sort of game changing 3B when in reality he has been above average most years but he isn’t in the elite conversation.
In today’s market a $12M AAV isn’t considered elite player. This gets you 2-3 WAR value which is simply an above average player. Players like Angel Pagan ($10M AAV), Jhonny Peralta ($13.25M), Shane Victorino ($13M), Michael Bourn ($14M) and Kendrys Morales ($12M) have all signed recent contracts with similar AAV. Headley is a good value on a 4yr/$48M deal based on his age, strong defense and even average offensive output. Once you add in the fact he isn’t tied to draft pick compensation in my opinion he is the best value in the entire 3B free agent class.
5 years is too much, 3/39 would be awesome but he probably gets more than that, 4/45 wouldn’t be the worst contract in the world for his skillset.
The Yankees would have to outbid any competitors by a lot to keep him, as he would probably be concerned about playing time at third. The team has to give A-Rod a chance to play in the hopes he may be passable in the field and be worth at least part of salary going forward.
Is it just me, or are professional athletes disproportionately oftentimes staunchly and overtly religious? Not putting a value judgment on it, it just seems like hear about it a lot more from ballplayers than from everyday people.
You haven’t ventured outside of Massachusetts enough.
I suppose I do tend to limit my travel to regions where everyone’s civil liberties are respected š®
And a higher proportion of baseball players are from southern states.
Why is THAT anyhow? Greater cultural expectation for boys to play sports?
Same thing why scouts like California, Texas, Georgia, etc. They have a much longer playing season as kids. MLB doesn’t represent us population as a whole. This year 92 mlb players were born in Florida, that is more than than New York, New Jersey, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME combined. They can play baseball year round, we can for like 2 months.
Is there any site, maybe like B-Ref, that can give that info all at once?
google mlb players by birthplace, first link.
top has an all time listing, bottom has a breakdown by year. I’ve only seen the all time listing on bref, not the breakdown by year.
I would like the Tigers to get him.
Some Fangraphs Defensive Runs Saved Numbers:
Cabrera 2013 (mostly 3rd base): -14.8
Castellanos 2014: -16.3
Headley 2014: +21.6
That is astounding +37.9 runs saved by upgrading from Castellanos to Headley!
Of course Castellanos will likely get better. Even if Castellanos is a +2 or +3 WAR offensive player than Headley, that is a lot of defensively liability to make up.
They might have bigger needs though, than replacing a position they already have.
The problem with signing Headley for that type of money is that his bat is in decline, and over three or four years, the glove will follow. That doesn’t mean he won’t get that type of contract, but it’s iffy whether he will be worth it.
I would love to see Headley return to the Bronx next season. He came through with some clutch at bats for the team, and you can’t get much better than his glove at 3B. With the uncertainty surrounding A-Rod (man, I wish that guy would just go away for good), having a great defender with a decent bat like Headley on the team will only benefit the Yanks.
Baseball is in a pretty sad state when this guy could command a 4-year $50MM deal. Third basemen used to have good arms and could hit a ton.