Before the offseason even got underway, the Dodgers managed to make an impact signing that sent shockwaves through the baseball world. With a record-setting five-year, $35MM deal, Los Angeles convinced former Rays architect Andrew Friedman to head west and discover what it’s like to work with a seemingly limitless budget. With years of success in Tampa Bay on a consistently league-dwelling payroll, it’ll be fascinating to watch what Friedman can do with a Brinks truck at his disposal.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Clayton Kershaw, SP: $193MM through 2020
- Zack Greinke, SP: $94MM through 2018
- Matt Kemp, OF: $85.5MM through 2019
- Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: $85MM through 2018
- Carl Crawford, OF: $62.25MM through 2017
- Andre Ethier, OF: $56MM through 2017
- Hyun-jin Ryu SP: $25MM through 2018
- Yasiel Puig, OF: $24MM through 2018
- Erisbel Arruebarrena, SS: $16M through 2018
- Alex Guerrero, 2B: $14MM through 2017
- Dan Haren, SP: $10MM through 2015
- Brian Wilson, RP: $9.5MM through 2015
- Brandon League, RP: $7.5MM through 2015
- Juan Uribe, 3B: $6.5MM through 2015
- J.P. Howell, RP: $4.25MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- A.J. Ellis, C (4.151): $3.8MM
- Kenley Jansen, RP (4.073): $8.2MM
- Darwin Barney, 2B (4.053): $2.5MM
- Justin Turner, IF (4.045): $2.2MM
- Drew Butera, C (4.018): $900K
- Scott Elbert, RP (3.086): $800K
- Dee Gordon, 2B (2.154): $2.5MM
Free Agents
- Hanley Ramirez, Chad Billingsley, Kevin Correia, Roberto Hernandez, Chris Perez, Jamey Wright, Paul Maholm
Other Payroll Notes
- Will receive a $3.9MM payment from the Red Sox in 2015 as a condition of their blockbuster trade.
- Billingsley will receive a $3MM buyout after the Dodgers declined his $14MM option for 2015.
When it was learned that Friedman would be joining the Dodgers, there was immediate speculation that longtime Rays skipper Joe Maddon could follow. When Maddon opted out of his contract with the Rays, the rumor mill started churning once again with many wondering if the Dodgers could fire Don Mattingly to replace him with the two-time American League manager of the year. However, the Dodgers were quick to release a statement making it clear that Donnie Baseball would be back in the dugout for 2015. Maddon, meanwhile, signed on with the Cubs.
Joining Friedman in the front office will be former A’s exec Farhan Zaidi and former Padres GM Josh Byrnes. Zaidi will serve as the club’s GM while Byrnes has been named the senior vice president of baseball operations. There are now a number of fresh faces in the Dodgers’ front office that have supplanted mainstays Ned Colletti (who remains in an advisory capacity), Logan White, and De Jon Watson, and the roster could see some similar turnover.
Hanley Ramirez and the Dodgers discussed an extension earlier in the year and the shortstop made it known that he wanted to be a “Dodger for life” and ink a long-term deal. Those talks were tabled in August as Ramirez was sidelined with an oblique injury and the two sides agreed to pick things up after the season. Now, it would appear that they’re more focused on replacing his .283/.369/.448 batting line than re-signing him to a new multiyear deal.
Ramirez rejected the Dodgers’ QO, so they’ll receive draft pick compensation if he goes elsewhere. Despite Ramirez’s injury history and his subpar defense at shortstop (-15.6 UZR/150 in 2014), he still figures to be amongst the most hotly-pursued free agents of the winter, especially given a willingness to play a position other than shortstop. Even if Ramirez’s future is at third base or in the American League where he can be a part-time DH, he will draw lots of attention. Recently, I profiled Ramirez and looked at his potential market this winter.
If Ramirez leaves, the Dodgers could look into a temporary solution at shortstop that would allow them to build a bridge to Corey Seager down the line, possibly in 2016. There are options on the open market, but not particularly glamorous ones: Stephen Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jed Lowrie stand as the best available shortstops beyond Ramirez. Looking in-house, shortstop Erisbel Arruebarrena is a defensive wizard and could be plugged in as the starter with help from Miguel Rojas, but that will require the Dodgers to make a significant offensive upgrade elsewhere.
The Dodgers’ best internal option offensively could be turning to Alex Guerrero at shortstop. Guerrero was signed to a four-year, $28MM deal in October of last year to play second base before something funny happened along the way: Dee Gordon emerged as a highly-productive second baseman for the Dodgers, earning his first All-Star nod in 2014. So, putting Guerrero on the opposite side of the bag from Gordon would be a no-brainer move if Ramirez leaves, right? Not exactly. Guerrero has previous experience at shortstop, but the Dodgers focused on getting him up to speed at second base last season, where he apparently wasn’t blowing observers away defensively. In theory, Gordon would be a very attractive trade candidate in an offseason where there isn’t much available on the free agent market at second base, and that would clear a path for Guerrero to play what might be his best position. Still, that would require a significant package for Gordon and a whole lot of faith from the Dodgers’ front office in Guerrero’s abilities. On the plus side, Guerrero is said to have recovered well from the incident with Miguel Olivo which cost him part of his ear.
The Dodgers’ outfield glut has been a topic of discussion for a long time now and they still have quite the logjam. Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, and Joc Pederson are all in the fold and it stands to reason that they would want to trade at least one of those players for help in another area. Ideally, the Dodgers would probably look to move Ethier and/or Crawford, allowing them to focus on a starting outfield of Kemp, Pederson, and Puig with Scott Van Slyke in support. Friedman, in fact, confirmed that a trade of at least one outfielder seems likely this offseason.
Ethier is owed an eye-popping $56MM after this season and that number could increase even further thanks to an attainable $17.5MM vesting option for 2018 that is tied to plate appearances in the preceding year. Trading Ethier, who once carried so much promise, would require the Dodgers to eat a significant portion of his salary. The 32-year-old (33 in April) slashed just .249/.322/.370 in 2014 with a very pedestrian 0.7 WAR.
Moving Crawford, 33, could be even tougher. Crawford gave the Dodgers a .300/.339/.429 slash line in 2014, an improvement over last season, but it’s a far cry from the work that Friedman got to witness up close for years in Tampa Bay. He also played in just 105 games and that won’t help ease his perception as an injury-prone player. Just like with Ethier, trading the four-time All-Star will mean picking up a good chunk of the check. That won’t necessarily be a problem for the cash-flush Dodgers, but finding a fit could still be tricky.
The Blue Jays could have vacancies to fill in left and center field if they lose both Colby Rasmus and Melky Cabrera to free agency. The Rangers, meanwhile, have a corner outfield vacancy after declining Alex Rios’ $13.5MM club option. If the Dodgers pick up a very significant share of the check, teams like the Reds or White Sox could have interest. Ethier and Crawford have their flaws, but if the Dodgers can throw in enough cash, they could have appeal to clubs who are looking at a flat free agent outfield market. From a pure talent perspective, the Dodgers would certainly like to trade those two before Kemp, but he is the most expensive of the trio and has drawn significant trade interest in the past.
While the Dodgers have a surplus in the outfield, it appears that they have a good amount of work to do in the bullpen. Kenley Jansen (2.76 ERA, 1.93 xFIP, 13.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 in 2014) was stellar, but the bridge to him was anything but. On paper, a ’pen featuring the likes of Brian Wilson, Chris Perez, and Brandon League (who admittedly did improve from a rough 2013) looked serviceable, but the Dodgers actually wound up with one of the worst bullpens in the majors in 2014. Injuries to Chris Withrow and others didn’t help matters. They’ll have J.P. Howell back in the mix, to serve as a reliable arm, but the Dodgers will make some changes this winter.
This year’s free agent reliever market features plenty of notable veteran names that will see big paydays, but that has never been Friedman’s style for building a bullpen in the past. And, after all, there’s already a great deal of money committed to the bullpen for 2015 with Wilson, League, Howell, and Jansen combining for roughly $30MM in salary. I would expect Friedman to scour the market for value options while keeping an eye out for quality relievers via trade, but then again, maybe he wants to take his new Ferrari convertible out for a spin after years of driving a sensible four-door sedan. If he wants to spend big, David Robertson and Andrew Miller would both look pretty nice in Dodger blue. Meanwhile, guys like Pat Neshek, Joba Chamberlain, and Jason Frasor would be a bit more sensible.
The Dodgers rotation will feature Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Hyun-jin Ryu, and Dan Haren but the fifth spot is a bit unclear at this point. Prospect Zach Lee might be a candidate to fill the role, but his 5.38 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in Triple-A last season says that he’ll need some more seasoning before making his debut.
The free agent market is littered with older middle-of-the-rotation types, but Friedman’s newly-found deep pockets should lead him in a different direction. Someone like Justin Masterson, who will turn 30 in March, could make sense for the Dodgers. He’s one year removed from his best season ever (3.45 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9), the advanced metrics say that he was better than the core stats would have you believe in 2014, and he is hopeful that he’ll be back to 100% health after an offseason of rest and rehabilitation. Want to go even younger? Japanese standout Kenta Maeda will be 27 in April and while the bidding for him should be fierce, it’s not out of the realm that the Guggenheim group could green light that signing. Recently, Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com heard that the Dodgers were unlikely to go after any starter that would cost them a draft pick, which would rule out QO pitchers like Max Scherzer and James Shields. On the trade market, names like Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and maybe Cole Hamels could make some sense for L.A. if they’re willing to part with prospects like Seager, Pederson or Julio Urias.
One more area to keep an eye on for the Dodgers is at catcher, where Ellis may have fallen out of favor as the team’s starter after hitting .191/.323/.254 last season. The Dodgers have already been connected to old friend Russell Martin — the clear prize of the free agent market. The price tag there is climbing by the day, but he’d make a great pitching staff even better and give some more offense behind the plate. If he’s too expensive or not keen on returning to his old stomping grounds, the Dodgers could look to the trade market where Jason Castro and Miguel Montero are said to be available.
With a whole lot of money and an executive at the helm who knows how to stretch a dollar, the possibilities for the Dodgers are endless this winter. Whatever path they take, they’ll return an elite rotation that should keep them firmly in the mix in next year’s NL West.
What about a 3ways trade? Something like Ethier or Crawford to the Reds, 1 SP from the Reds to the Rockies and Tulo going to LAD? With cash and prospects here and here to tie up the packages.
Cueto to Colorado, Corey Seager and Ethier plus cash to Cin, and Tulo to LA? Would LA have to throw in a high minor league arm too? Maybe Onelki Garcia or Ross Strippling to Colorado. I just don’t see Colorado willing and to let Tulo stay in division. Interesting thought though.
Rockies would never swap tulo for cueto with him to hit free agency next year.
Ethier and/or Crawford are not going to net the Dodgers Tulo no matter how many teams are involved. The prospects would have to be the center piece, ridding themselves of Crawford/Ethier is just an added bonus for LAD.
Yeah pretty clear Seager would be the centerpiece here. Just not sure trading Tulo for one year of Cueto is going to work for the Rockies. Seems the Reds win this one.
Cincinatti is shedding payroll, they are not taking on any expensive commitments
Not to be a stickler but it’s 107 million to Kemp through 2019 not 85.5 million.
The last year is a club option.
Nope, flash is correct. 2019 is not a team option.
yes it is
Curious where you see that. Per Cots, there is no mention of 2019 being a team option. Also no mention of the option in the original article in the LA Times.
Matt Kemp cf
8 years/$160M (2012-19)
signed extension with LA Dodgers 11/18/11 (avoided arbitration)
$2M signing bonus (paid 4/15/12)
12:$10M, 13:$20M, 14:$21M, 15:$21M, 16-19:$21.5M annually
$2M of 2012 salary deferred until 4/15/13
at signing, largest-ever deal for National League player and tied for seventh-largest ever
No it’s not. He signed an 8 year guaranteed contract for 160 million which covers the years 2012- 2019. Their are no options at all. Go look it up on Cots or Baseball Reference. He is under full contract for 5 more years at 107 million.l
Kenta looked impressive yesterday but I think the bidding might climb higher than LA should go. I’m excited to get a look at Chihiro Kaneko tonight. From what I’ve read about his arsenal, pitch ability, and monster 2014 stats he seems like a great candidate to be our 4-5th starter. McCarthy and Liriano also intrigue but like Meada I think they might get pricey. Brandon Morrow and Billingsly could be interesting swingmen/long relief. Haren is suspect at best and LA would be smart to have a backup plan.
The Dodgers released Billingsley a couple weeks ago!
I’m cautious about long term deals for relievers but if Andrew Miller could be had for 3 years 30 mil I hope Friedman pulls the trigger. The lefty situation could get ugly quick if Howell falters and Paco or Coulombe can’t pick up the slack. Luke Hochevar is interesting coming off injury, I wonder how many years he’ll get. He might be better off going to a NL pitchers park and trying to rebuild value before signing long term.
Next year they will have $38 million coming off the books. But naturally it doesnt mean the 2016 payroll will be under $200 million haha
Ok, how about this? Trade for Ben Zobrist, trade Dee for prospects, relief help, or as part of a bigger deal. Trade Ethier and CC for anything we can get from them. Play Guerrero at 2B, Zobrist at SS and sign Martin for Catcher. Lineup would be: Zobrist (SS), Puig (RF), AGon (1B), Kemp (LF), Pederson (CF), Uribe (3B), Martin (C) and Guerrero (2B) with Van Slyke, Turner, Arruebarrena, Rojas and Ellis for the bench. That’s 13 position players plus 12 pitchers. I know it’s easier said than done, but that doesn’t seem so unrealistic and it’s a pretty balanced roster.
What do y’all think?
If the Dodgers are going to give up a 1st rounder to sign Martin, then I hope they also look to sign Scherzer, too. Definitely have to deal Ethier and/or Crawford. I could see the Dodgers dealing Dee for prospects and starting Guerrero at 2B. I’d be fine with Arruebarrena at SS. That would make only 2B a questionable defensive position on the infield:
I could see a lineup of:
LF Crawford
2B Guerrero
CF Puig
1B AGon
RF Kemp
C Martin
3B Uribe
SS Arruebarrena
Rotation: Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, Ryu & Haren
Obviously they need to fill out the bullpen, but Friedman should be able to capably do that. Signing Scherzer insures against Greinke opting out after ’15 (which I think he will do).
That would be an amazing scenario, I just have a feeling that this new FO won’t make any big acquisitions this year. I think even Martin would be a bigger one than what they’ll actually go out and get. Scherzer would be outstanding on that rotation…
You could be right. I think it could hinge on whether they sign Martin. If they don’t sign Martin, then I think it means they are planning on not signing anyone who has a draft pick compensation tied to them, ruling out Scherzer & Shields. If they do sign Martin, then I could easily see them go after another guy with draft pick comp, like Scherzer. The elephant in the room for the Dodgers’ rotation is, IMO, Greinke leaving after next year. He will pitch really well in ’15 and should garner some really good interest in the market in the offseason after.
Puig is not a good CF’er
He’s not great, but he should improve with more time there and should be fine for 2015.
I’m personally less worried about his defense and more worried about him breaking down. Center is a little rougher on the body, and for a guy that plays 100 mph all the time, it adds up. Just look at how he slowed down at the end of last season.
Trade for a pitcher who can beat the Cardinals, IMHO.
Dodgers please dont trade Carl Crawford to the Blue Jays haha. Then we’d have to hear year round, his crying about how sports fans and media treated him… Even though we kept giving him the benefit of the doubt!!!!
Keep Kemp! Ethier has to go no matter what…for one thing he deserves to be on a team where he can play. I would not give Crawford away..but he should go as well. Kemp, Puig and Pedersen outfield sound good to me. Bad deals were made…bite the bullet now and move forward. Don’t even think about trading Seager. Sure wish Zach Lee would step up but have my doubts. If Bills could be signed for not too much might be worth a chance. Is Sweeney a sleeper option at SS?? He’s tearin it up in Arizona???? Why is Turner not considered an option at SS?
Because Turner is almost as good a defender as Hanley was. I agree with most of what you said, just not that suggestion though.
That’s what I was thinking. Sweeney will be fun to see in ST
Sweeney isn’t a decent fielder at SS, he’s shaky at 2nd and he might move to CF. You’re right about him being on a tear in the AFL, his bat keeps improving.
Here’s what I would like to see:
Sign Russell Martin – 4 years, $60 million
Sign Andrew Miller – 4 years, $36 million
Sign Pat Neshek – 2 years, $14 million
Trade Crawford and Ethier for whatever. Pederson to start in CF.
Sign Brandon McCarthy – 2 years, $24 million
Sign Stephen Drew to a 1 year deal for cheap.
Re-sign Billingsley to a one-year deal with incentives
Give Alex Guerrero first crack at SS and hope he can handle the position defensively. If neither he nor Gordon can handle that position, go with Drew and immediately look for an upgrade via the trade market or hope Seager develops rapidly this year.
We’ll see I guess if there’s that sort of money available.
I don’t know if the Dodgers want to lose that many draft picks. Although the Hanley supplemental will help and maybe they make up for it with some top international talent.
I think Martin is the only one who would cost a pick. Edit, nevermind
Also, you’ve completely written off Arruebarrena in your scenario. From the limited sample from last year I like him. I still think trading Gordon is something they’ll look at — I’m still not sold on his bat at all.
I’m not sure Arruebarrena is going to hit enough to be much more than a defensive replacement / fill-in. I could see dealing Gordon I guess, but the return should be pretty good. As for the draft picks, isn’t Martin the only one above that would cost a pick?
I apologize, I was under the impression that Miller would cost one. The logic is sound to replace the lost pick for Martin with the supplemental. Not that far apart pick-wise. I guess I’m just of the opinion that a great defensive SS is worth the bat trade-off, especially with a potentially best-in-the-NL staff.
No worries. Yeah I’d be much more willing to sacrifice offense at SS if there was that sort of upgrade at catcher.
Why would the Dodgers start Pederson in CF? He has done nothing to prove himself so far. 4 singles in 28 ab’s?
Really? You’re going to evaluate him on 28 ABs? He needs to have a chance to prove himself, no? Or do you feel he needs to prove more than he has in AAA, which is somewhat impossible to accomplish.
Proving yourself in the PCL and in the majors are very different things. No doubt he will get some playing time this year but I would not want to see the Dodgers gamble the season on him being ready.
So they should put him back in AAA where he hit .303/.435/.582? 28 at-bats isn’t enough for me to conclude that he’s not ready. He’s likely the team’s best CF defender and at some point you have to give guys a chance. Worst case you have an OF consisting of Van Slyke, Puig, and Kemp. Pretty easy to find a 4th OF in free agency, and you have internal options as well such as Sweeney at some point, Schebler, etc.
Would the Dodgers trade Zach Lee for Gallardo?
More than likely they would, yes, even though Gallardo is a free agent after 2015.
I disagree. Lee will be 23 all of next season and a lot of teams would write off a 22 year old’s season in Albuquerque (a place with worse park factors than Coors). He’s always been a high floor guy and Gallardo’s production is that floor. One year of Gallardo for the multiple years of cost control Lee has is the exact type of move Friedman doesn’t do. Maybe Colleti would have if Kasten hadn’t kept such a tight leash. Gallardo will make 13 million this year, I’m sure Friedman and Zaidi would rather allocate that elsewhere.
Assuming he becomes a FA this winter, What about Jose Fernandez? Does he play SS? How long would he need in the minors?
Sign Martin and a couple relievers [maybe 2 of Miller, Jannsen, Gregerson]. Trade for A.Ramirez and Hellickson [I can see Dodgers being the rumored NL team trying to trade for him] and trade Ethier for a spec or bullpen piece. Then give one of our younger guys from the system a shot at the last ‘pen spot.
lineup : Gordon, Puig, Gonzalez, Kemp, Martin, Uribe, Ramirez, Crawford
rotation : Kershaw, Grienke, Ryu, Hellickson, Haren
bullpen : Jansen, Jannsen/Miller, Wilson, Gregerson, League, Howell, return for Ethier/young reliever
bench : VanSlyke, Turner, Arrurbuena, Barney, Ellis
Then look at trading Crawford midseason and promoting Joc or just wait until Crawford inevitability gets hurt
I agree with most of this, but I think the boat is being missed again on the Crawford story. His play in 2014 was limited by the odd-man-out platoon used by Mattingley. Crawford started the season poorly and mostly sat on the bench. He rebounded in May but then injured his ankle. This was an in-game injury, not the reappearance of a chronic health issue. When he came back in July he wasn’t automatically back in the lineup because in the meantime the Dodgers had moved Kemp to LF. When the OF was realigned again and Crawford played regularly he was very good at the plate, and his base path speed was returning. It doesn’t make sense to say that he has to play like he did at Tampa Bay to be useful. Finally, his contract does not make him hard to trade. If the Dodgers do try to move him they would have to pay it down quite a bit, but his performance in the second half was easily good enough to make him interesting to any team in need of a LF. At $10m a season he’d move quickly.