Headlines

  • Red Sox Promote Roman Anthony
  • Mariners Designate Leody Taveras For Assignment, Outright Casey Lawrence
  • Angels Acquire LaMonte Wade Jr.
  • Braves Designate Craig Kimbrel For Assignment
  • Corbin Burnes To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
  • Braves Select Craig Kimbrel
  • Previous
  • Next
Register
Login
  • Hoops Rumors
  • Pro Football Rumors
  • Pro Hockey Rumors

MLB Trade Rumors

Remove Ads
  • Home
  • Teams
    • AL East
      • Baltimore Orioles
      • Boston Red Sox
      • New York Yankees
      • Tampa Bay Rays
      • Toronto Blue Jays
    • AL Central
      • Chicago White Sox
      • Cleveland Guardians
      • Detroit Tigers
      • Kansas City Royals
      • Minnesota Twins
    • AL West
      • Houston Astros
      • Los Angeles Angels
      • Oakland Athletics
      • Seattle Mariners
      • Texas Rangers
    • NL East
      • Atlanta Braves
      • Miami Marlins
      • New York Mets
      • Philadelphia Phillies
      • Washington Nationals
    • NL Central
      • Chicago Cubs
      • Cincinnati Reds
      • Milwaukee Brewers
      • Pittsburgh Pirates
      • St. Louis Cardinals
    • NL West
      • Arizona Diamondbacks
      • Colorado Rockies
      • Los Angeles Dodgers
      • San Diego Padres
      • San Francisco Giants
  • About
    • MLB Trade Rumors
    • Tim Dierkes
    • Writing team
    • Advertise
    • Archives
  • Contact
  • Tools
    • 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2024-25 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2025
    • Free Agent Contest Leaderboard
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Agency Database
  • NBA/NFL/NHL
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors
  • App
  • Chats
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | April 22, 2015 at 3:44pm CDT

Most teams are about 9% through their season at this point, and it’s time for our first midseason update of the 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.  These players project to reach free agency after this season.

As a reminder, these rankings represent the earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  Justin Upton.  Upton, 27, is off to a fine start for the second place Padres.  Not coincidentally, the Friars are averaging more than 5.3 runs per game in the early going, tops in the National League.  Nothing seems to be cooking on the extension front, and a free agent contract worth $250MM or more could be in play this winter.

2.  David Price.  Price jumps up a spot after allowing just one earned run in his first 22 1/3 innings.  Before that, some low-level extension discussions with the Tigers occurred in late March.  Price is willing to continue talking contract into the season and seems to have a number in mind that could result in a fairly quick deal if the Tigers reach it.  Logically, that number figures to be in the $200MM range.

3.  Johnny Cueto.  Cueto moves up a spot as well after a trio of seven-inning outings.  As he moves further from his 2013 shoulder strain, Cueto moves closer to Price in earning power.  His Reds are hanging in with a .500 record, though a midseason trade at least seems viable.  A deadline deal would make Cueto ineligible for a qualifying offer, though at ace prices the loss of a draft pick is a secondary concern for suitors.

4.  Jason Heyward.  It’s not fair to bump Heyward down two spots because of 53 lousy plate appearances, but I feel that if the season ended today, Price and Cueto would earn bigger contracts.  Batting second in the order for the Cardinals, Heyward is at .192/.208/.327 on the young season.

5.  Ian Desmond.  On the plus side, Desmond has cut his strikeout rate considerably in his first 14 games, an 18% rate that would represent a full-season career best.  On the other hand, Desmond has made eight errors in his first 125 1/3 innings in the field.  Surely that pace will lessen, but he still has a good shot at 30 on the season.  Even with today’s advanced fielding metrics, 30 errors could be hard for a team owner to ignore if Desmond’s price tag exceeds $150MM.

6.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann’s early numbers are off after an April 13th Fenway Park drubbing, and his velocity is down a few ticks from April of last year.  Still, every pitcher is allowed the occasional clunker, and Zimmermann has about 29 starts left to go.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Royals manager Ned Yost intends to exercise extra caution with Gordon in at least the season’s first month due to his December wrist surgery.  11 games don’t tell us much, but it will be worth monitoring whether the wrist saps Gordon’s power at all this year.

8.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes is off to a strong start, and seems capable of piling up a huge RBI total batting fifth or sixth in the Tigers’ potent lineup.  He is ineligible for a qualifying offer and won’t turn 30 until October, and seems a candidate to move several more spots up this list.

9.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke has three quality starts in three tries this year, and not much has changed with his status.  I still expect him to opt out of his remaining three years and $71MM after the season.

10.  Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija’s White Sox debut in Kansas City was a forgettable outing, but he has now turned in consecutive gems.  He and Greinke have each fallen a spot only because of Cespedes’ earning power.

In news that was music to the ears of Samardzija, Greinke, Zimmermann, and others, the Red Sox signed Rick Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension earlier this month.  The contract covers his age 27-30 seasons.  Though part of the calculus is Porcello’s youth and the deal being shortened to four years, if he’s worth $20.625MM per season, that bodes well for next winter’s crop of free agent hurlers.

Cueto leads all 2016 free agents with 0.8 wins above replacement early on, though the Dodgers’ Howie Kendrick and the Yankees’ Chris Young have matched him.  Young’s rate stats this year will be skewed, however, if he continues getting more than 40% of his plate appearances against southpaws.

 

Share 11 Retweet 49 Send via email0

2016 Free Agent Power Rankings MLBTR Originals Newsstand

Jeff Beliveau To Undergo Surgery For Torn Labrum
Main
Dodgers Release Freddy Garcia
View Comments (76)
Post a Comment

76 Comments

  1. David 29

    10 years ago

    Braves…sign some good players. PLEASE

    Reply
    • Rally Weimaraner

      10 years ago

      More likely to trade some good player.

      Reply
      • David 29

        10 years ago

        True…but with all the 1 year players we signed, and will leave, we need players. I think we have a budget to do so because of all the players we traded this past offseason..

        Reply
        • james k.

          10 years ago

          i am not a braves fan because when they played the cardinals in the wild card game in 2012 their fans showed how classless they are by throwin crap on the field. with that said i am a baseball fan. think about it. john hart is building a power house of a team for 2017 when they move into that new stadium. shelby miller is a future cy young winner. braves have the worst fans in baseball

          Reply
          • David 29

            10 years ago

            So is the point of your comment that I’m a classless fan because I want my team to become better?
            And I agree that Braves fan should have done better expressing anger and that throwing stuff on the the field isn’t right, and I’m not by any means defending the fans actions that day, but the umpires made poor judging the play and horrible reffing in a important situation to fans like me is very angering.

            Reply
    • gorav114

      10 years ago

      U got Nick Markakis, he’s good for at least 150 singles

      Reply
      • WoofBark

        10 years ago

        He’s exactly the kind of veteran presence needed to lead this team to 88 losses.

        Reply
  2. Leftover_stew

    10 years ago

    Remember when the ESPN guys were going gaga over Heyward opening night, saying he was fixed? Good times.

    Reply
    • Rally Weimaraner

      10 years ago

      I never knew he was broken but that’s ESPN for ya.

      Reply
      • RippinNTearinAB

        10 years ago

        That is because you know nothing but hype about him.

        Reply
    • David Coonce

      10 years ago

      Yep, two weeks is a really useful sample size.

      Reply
      • Leftover_stew

        10 years ago

        More useful than 1 AB, which was more my point but thanks.

        Reply
        • David Coonce

          10 years ago

          I don’t even look at player stats until about 6 weeks into the season. Announcer’s hot takes are definitely annoying though, I’ll agee.

          Reply
    • james k.

      10 years ago

      heyward isnt taking as many pitches in the number two spot as he did in the leadoff spot. hes more aggressive. as soon as he figures out how to shorten his swing he’ll be just fine. he will start going on a terror

      Reply
  3. Wooltron

    10 years ago

    Very interested to see who the Giants spend the money they saved on Pablo/Lester/Shields/Tomas, and anyone else who didn’t sign with them that I’m forgetting about on.

    Reply
    • Matt Stephens

      10 years ago

      Agreed. I can’t think of a team that has come in 2nd on more free agents. And next year is an even year.

      Reply
    • Draven Moss

      10 years ago

      The money they didn’t spend on those guys was spent elsewhere….

      Reply
      • Wooltron

        10 years ago

        Bringing back Peavy and Vogelsong on short contracts and adding Aoki for cheap should not prevent them from being able to spend next year. Lincecum, Hudson, and Vogelsong are all FA’s after the season, along with McGehee, Arias, and Aoki if they don’t pick up his option. Anyway you look at it they are going to have to spend some money. It’s not every year you get a FA class with this much quality starting pitching.

        Reply
  4. Charlie Burns

    10 years ago

    Hopefully the M’s management sees that they could use one of the possible outfield options out there (personally, wouldn’t mind Justin Upton since Heyward is just going to probably cost way too much). Of course, knowing anything, they will just trot Ackley back out there…sigh.

    Reply
    • Josh Kuh

      10 years ago

      Ack is improving, I don’t think they need to do much this offseason

      Reply
  5. yanksfan2010

    10 years ago

    Considering the Yankees did not sign one major free agent last year, hopefully they sign one of the top five next year

    Reply
    • Matt Stephens

      10 years ago

      Yeah, they only spent 90 million on Andrew Miller and Chase Headley last year. Bummer of an off-season.

      Reply
      • yanksfan2010

        10 years ago

        They resigned Chase and got a reliever. So actually is was not a big off season.

        Reply
        • Roger 2

          10 years ago

          They were the 5th highest spending team in baseball in the offseason.

          Reply
        • JacobyWanKenobi

          10 years ago

          “a reliever” he’s a nasty and dominating pitcher who is off to a great start at closer so far.

          Reply
      • stymeedone

        10 years ago

        Don’t forget Drew and Young.

        Reply
      • james k.

        10 years ago

        the yankees are to worried about paying the salaries of the washed ups that are weighing their payroll. hint cc

        Reply
  6. treday

    10 years ago

    Can someone fill me in as to why Cespedes is ineligible for a QO? I thought since he was traded before the season he’d be fine

    Reply
    • Mikenmn

      10 years ago

      my understanding is that it was part of his original contract–no QO could be offered. It’s not related to a midseason trade.

      Reply
      • Russell Sampson

        10 years ago

        I’m going to be interested what happens after the season with Cespedes. If I remember correctly, his contract stated that he couldn’t be offered arbitration at the end of his contract. I guess it would all depend on how the clause was worded.

        Reply
        • stl_cards16

          10 years ago

          He can’t be offered arbitration and he can’t be offered a Qualifying Offer. He will be a free agent.

          Reply
    • Steve Adams

      10 years ago

      His original four-year contract with the A’s came with the condition that he would be released at the end of it, as otherwise he’d still be eligible for arbitration and controlled for another two seasons. Since he’s released at season’s end, he can’t get the QO.

      Reply
    • David Coonce

      10 years ago

      It was some contractual demand he and his agent made when he was originally signed by Oakland. I’m surprised more players don’t try it.

      Reply
  7. stymeedone

    10 years ago

    Yep, Boston overpays for Porcello, and everyone else has to ante up, now, too.

    Reply
    • Alonzo

      10 years ago

      it’s not true. I would never compare Porcello’s contract to Price’s or Cueto’s due to the enormous age difference.
      Well, a top tier pitcher like Price is getting his “Scherzer-deal” anyway…and I wouldn’t touch that.
      Hope the Sox can keep dodging those contracts.

      Sox will get Hamels. I am absolutely convinced that the Phillies will settle for Margot (who’s stock is rising pretty fast, as expected) and one of Owens/E-Rod as centerpiece.

      Reply
      • DrRamblings

        10 years ago

        Porcello’s #’s are very pedestrian. BOS definitely overpaid….to have a staff of #3 starters.

        Reply
        • 123redsox

          10 years ago

          Porcello is only 26. He is a ground ball pitcher in an infield that will have a gold glove second baseman and a rapidly improving Bogaerts. Who will he at first base long term in a question but assuming Sandavol stays at third, that is a good defensive infield. Realize that market value keeps rising and 20 million for a guy that hasnt reached his prime and has number 2 potential could be a steal in 5 years when the average number three starter is making 20 a year anyway.

          Reply
          • DrRamblings

            10 years ago

            There are *a lot* of things that need to go right for that contract to go from an overpay to “a steal in 5 years”. I’m not saying it won’t happen, but that is a lot of pressure to put on the guy.

            Reply
            • 123redsox

              10 years ago

              I agree but if there is a guy who can do it in Boston I think it is Porcello

              Reply
      • David Coonce

        10 years ago

        The Sox don’t view Porcello as an overpay – it was far more important for them to get just 4 years rather than a six- or seven-year contract. The AAV may be higher, but Boston can afford it and being saddled with a long contract for a pitcher is something the organizaion seems to be trying to avoid.

        Reply
      • NoAZPhilsPhan

        10 years ago

        Sure it’s true. Any time a player signs a contract it affects the contracts of every player in that same position (i.e. SP, RP, 1B etc.). Age is a factor but it’s not that huge because experience and history are also factors. Let’s say that Pirates inexplicably signed Polanco to an extension that averaged $26m/year. I can guarantee you that Upton’s agent would be commanding $28-$30m/year because he has a more established track record and would also cite such things as veteran leadership. Porcello’s contract raised the bar. There will be a minimum of 3 $200m contracts coming up. You can bank on that.
        By the way…. The Phillies aren’t going to settle for anything less than a stellar package.

        Reply
      • 123redsox

        10 years ago

        Porcello is 26 and Cueto is 28. Where is the big age difference between those two? Cueto is on another level quality wise but the age difference would not make a big difference in the contract. Both are young. Price is 31. That is an age difference.

        Reply
      • 123redsox

        10 years ago

        Also, I can definitely see the Sox parting with Margot as their outfield is already set with Castillo, Betts, Ramirez, Bradley as well as guys that will be acquired in the future by the draft, trade, FA, etc. But I do not see the Sox parting with Owens Rodriguez for Hamels, an older starter who has a bad track record against AL teams. Owens and Rodriguez both have the potential to be Hamels if not better. I personally would rather the Sox sign Cueto or Zimmerman to a big contract.

        Reply
      • stymeedone

        10 years ago

        Price’s contract had only Scherzers to compare to before. Don’t kid yourself thinking that Porcello’s wont affect it also.

        Reply
  8. dieharddodgerfan

    10 years ago

    A $250 million dollar deal for J.Upton would be crazy.

    Assuming its a 10 yr deal, committing $25 mill a year to Upton has the potential to be a real albatross on the back end.

    Yes, he’ll still fairly young when you get him, but in the post-PED era I would be careful with extremely long contracts.

    Reply
    • Vandals Took The Handles

      10 years ago

      I’m not wild about giving a long-term $125M-plus deal to any of those players. Were I a GM, I’d sign a few reasonable players that can gut out decent production, and put the rest of the money in my scouting department and farm system. It’s becoming less and less cost justifiable to give out contracts like those expected for players that have either never been true impact players, or were but are going downhill.

      Reply
  9. ss1240

    10 years ago

    Am I missing something? Why do people think Justin Upton could get a $250m contract? Though he has a high ceiling, he’s had only flashes of super-stardom; he seems to me to be only an above average outfielder. Is it because he’d be 28 and expected to enter his prime and thus reach his ceiling?

    Reply
    • DrRamblings

      10 years ago

      My thoughts exactly. He seems like a 6+ yr albatross contract waiting to happen. Someone will be stupid to give it to him.

      Reply
      • dieharddodgerfan

        10 years ago

        I do think someone will overpay. Someone always does. Plus, I think Upton will have a very good season in SD and that will inflate his value.

        Reply
    • Draven Moss

      10 years ago

      People like his ceiling, and his relatively high floor. He is a great target for a team needing a bat, as the market next year for hitters in general is relatively weak. So combine all those things with his age, he is gonna get paid.

      Reply
      • ss1240

        10 years ago

        Do you think he’ll surpass 200 million?

        Reply
        • Draven Moss

          10 years ago

          He might, but it’ll be on an 8-year deal.

          Reply
          • dieharddodgerfan

            10 years ago

            Even 8 yrs and $200 mill would be high, IMO.

            I see his AAV a tick under $25 mill ($24) and I’d say 7 yrs.

            My guess is 7 yrs, $168 mill, about one-third less than predicted.

            Reply
    • Income Bully

      10 years ago

      I don’t see the Cardinals even offering half of that amount. I can’t imagine anyone offering that much, I think 6 years 150M would even be a stretch.

      Reply
  10. David 29

    10 years ago

    Predictions of where the top FA’s land?

    Reply
  11. Nicholas Bagg

    10 years ago

    Isn’t $250M really steep?

    Reply
    • DrRamblings

      10 years ago

      For Justin Upton…absolutely. He isn’t Trout. He isn’t McCutchen. He is an above average defender w. some pop. I’d rather get 2 guys at the next step down.

      Reply
      • Nicholas Bagg

        10 years ago

        Or 3 or 4.

        Reply
  12. gbudell

    10 years ago

    250M for Justin Upton? Do they have a spell over owners? Not worth it. Lower ticket prices and stop with dumb contracts!

    Reply
    • David Coonce

      10 years ago

      Ticket prices literally have nothing to do with player contracts

      Reply
    • Mark Green

      10 years ago

      My understanding (and I could be wrong) is that player salaries and team functions are paid for by ad revenue. Everything else goes into the owners’ pockets. Clean profit.

      Reply
  13. Buddy GO Braves

    10 years ago

    Yeah this off-season the braves Will be one year away from opening the new park and their are some really good players in free agency this year so hopefully we could sign a few of them.

    Reply
  14. Vandals Took The Handles

    10 years ago

    I watched David Price a lot when he was with the Rays. When he’s on he’s as good as any pitcher in MLB. But he can often be off, and you wonder if it’s the same guy. In the last year with the Rays the off games happened more frequently, then accelerated with the Tigers. He was simply awful tonight – but that could be blamed on problems gripping the cold slick ball. Nevertheless, a not so great hitting Yankee team took batting practice off of him.

    I’m not so sure he’s going to have many $200M offers – I can’t see Friedman doing that with a Dodger payroll he’s trying to get in line, and he knows Price well. Maybe the Yankees, but they’ll just replace one CC Sabathia overpay with another LH. There will be one desperate team out there with money, too early to figure out the candidates at this point.

    Reply
  15. Kyle Noe

    10 years ago

    Nice article. Goes to show, Tim Dierkes is like the Steve Jobs of baseball. Too successful. I wish all the articles were written this well.

    Reply
  16. 123redsox

    10 years ago

    Upton,Cueto, Hayward, Zimmerman, Desmond, Price, Gordon, Cespedes, greinke, Samardjia

    Reply
  17. JoeTheSlayer

    10 years ago

    My mets are terrible with free agents. Let’s just groom our own players.

    Reply
  18. Mark Green

    10 years ago

    The gap between the minimum salary and these contracts is galactic, and growing; but the difference between replacement level talent and most of these players isn’t half as large. If a player isn’t a world-crusher, he isn’t worth it.

    Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Please login to leave a reply.

Log in Register

ad: 300x250_1_MLB

    Top Stories

    Red Sox Promote Roman Anthony

    Mariners Designate Leody Taveras For Assignment, Outright Casey Lawrence

    Angels Acquire LaMonte Wade Jr.

    Braves Designate Craig Kimbrel For Assignment

    Corbin Burnes To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    Braves Select Craig Kimbrel

    Jerry Reinsdorf, Justin Ishbia Reach Agreement For Ishbia To Obtain Future Majority Stake In White Sox

    White Sox To Promote Kyle Teel

    Sign Up For Trade Rumors Front Office Now And Lock In Savings!

    Pablo Lopez To Miss Multiple Months With Teres Major Strain

    MLB To Propose Automatic Ball-Strike Challenge System For 2026

    Giants Designate LaMonte Wade Jr., Sign Dominic Smith

    Reds Sign Wade Miley, Place Hunter Greene On Injured List

    Padres Interested In Jarren Duran

    Royals Promote Jac Caglianone

    Mariners Promote Cole Young, Activate Bryce Miller

    2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: May Edition

    Evan Phillips To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

    AJ Smith-Shawver Diagnosed With Torn UCL

    Reds Trade Alexis Díaz To Dodgers

    Recent

    Red Sox Promote Roman Anthony

    Mariners Designate Leody Taveras For Assignment, Outright Casey Lawrence

    Red Sox Designate Robert Stock For Assignment, Select Brian Van Belle

    Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

    Rich Hill Has June 15 Opt-Out In Royals Deal

    AJ Smith-Shawver Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

    Poll: What Will The Rangers Do At The Deadline?

    Mets Select Justin Garza

    Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

    Latest On Dodgers’ Rotation

    ad: 300x250_5_side_mlb

    MLBTR Newsletter - Hot stove highlights in your inbox, five days a week

    Latest Rumors & News

    Latest Rumors & News

    • 2024-25 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
    • Nolan Arenado Rumors
    • Dylan Cease Rumors
    • Luis Robert Rumors
    • Marcus Stroman Rumors

     

    Trade Rumors App for iOS and Android

    MLBTR Features

    MLBTR Features

    • Remove Ads, Support Our Writers
    • Front Office Originals
    • Front Office Fantasy Baseball
    • MLBTR Podcast
    • 2024-25 Offseason Outlook Series
    • 2025 Arbitration Projections
    • 2024-25 MLB Free Agent List
    • 2025-26 MLB Free Agent List
    • Contract Tracker
    • Transaction Tracker
    • Extension Tracker
    • Agency Database
    • MLBTR On Twitter
    • MLBTR On Facebook
    • Team Facebook Pages
    • How To Set Up Notifications For Breaking News
    • Hoops Rumors
    • Pro Football Rumors
    • Pro Hockey Rumors

    Rumors By Team

    • Angels Rumors
    • Astros Rumors
    • Athletics Rumors
    • Blue Jays Rumors
    • Braves Rumors
    • Brewers Rumors
    • Cardinals Rumors
    • Cubs Rumors
    • Diamondbacks Rumors
    • Dodgers Rumors
    • Giants Rumors
    • Guardians Rumors
    • Mariners Rumors
    • Marlins Rumors
    • Mets Rumors
    • Nationals Rumors
    • Orioles Rumors
    • Padres Rumors
    • Phillies Rumors
    • Pirates Rumors
    • Rangers Rumors
    • Rays Rumors
    • Red Sox Rumors
    • Reds Rumors
    • Rockies Rumors
    • Royals Rumors
    • Tigers Rumors
    • Twins Rumors
    • White Sox Rumors
    • Yankees Rumors

    ad: 160x600_MLB

    Navigation

    • Sitemap
    • Archives
    • RSS/Twitter Feeds By Team

    MLBTR INFO

    • Advertise
    • About
    • Commenting Policy
    • Privacy Policy

    Connect

    • Contact Us
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • RSS Feed

    MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

    hide arrows scroll to top

    Register

    Desktop Version | Switch To Mobile Version