Yesterday, Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel looked ahead to the 2015-16 international signing period by looking at several of the top prospects expected to land large bonuses on or after July 2. Today, McDaniel is back with the second part of his piece, this time examining how particular clubs are going to approach this next round of international spending. For reference purposes, here are the 2015-16 international bonus pools for each team, as compiled by Baseball America. If a team exceeds its pool, they have to pay a 100% tax on any overage and are prohibited from spending more than $300K to sign any player in the 2016-17 and 17-18 international periods (provided that the current rules aren’t altered in the next collective bargaining agreement).
Some of the highlights of McDaniel’s latest work, focusing on the teams most likely to exceed their bonus pool and face that two-year penalty…
- The Dodgers are, unsurprisingly, the only team McDaniel lists in the “(almost) anything is possible” category. By not signing Yoan Moncada, the Dodgers retained their ability to spend freely in the 2015-16 market, and it seems the team will go far beyond its $2.02MM bonus pool limit. The Dodgers are rumored to already have agreements in place with Yadier Alvarez (for $16MM), Dominican center fielder Starling Heredia ($3MM) and Dominican shortstop Ronny Brito ($2MM).
- The Cubs’ previous ban on signings of more than $250K will expire on July 2, and the team is reportedly already planning to again exceed its international budget. McDaniel lists seven players who have deals in place with Chicago, the most expensive of which is a $2MM bonus for Dominican shortstop Aramis Ademan.
- The Rangers are another club coming off a ban, and “they’re at least thinking long and hard about” exceeding their pool limit again, though McDaniel hears from rival scouts that Texas’ international planning may have “got a bit of a late start” due to A.J. Preller and Don Welke leaving for the Padres. Three rumored agreements should put the Rangers roughly at their approximate $4.586MM bonus pool already, and the club is still checking in on other high-priced talent.
- The Royals have a shot at staying under their bonus limit if they trade for some extra space, though it looks like Kansas City will probably slightly exceed their pool (a little over $2.07MM).
- The Blue Jays also seem likely to slightly go over their spending pool (roughly $2.324MM) and it could be entirely for the sake of their much-rumored agreement with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. McDaniel believes Toronto’s agreement with Guerrero is worth $4.4MM and he hasn’t heard any news that the Jays have any other deals lined up with other prospects, though he figures they’ll sign one or two other notable players “to make the most of going over.” While fans now associate exceeding the bonus limit with extreme cases like the Yankees or Red Sox, McDaniel notes that most clubs who exceed their pools are like the Jays, who fit the model of a team who “found a couple players they really like in a year they didn’t have a ton of money to spend.”
- Since they had hoped to sign Moncada and thus be facing a penalty for the 2015-16 signing period, the Padres seemingly don’t have any deals lined up. McDaniel considers them a “wild card” due to Preller’s aggressiveness.
If the Phillies don’t put their money where their mouth is and spend big in the international market, I’ll be shocked. Scratch that, nothing will shock me with this organization right now. But if they only plan to sign Ortiz out of all of the most popular names, that’s a disgrace.
Good summary. Phillies should go big in the int’l draft. Jhailyn Ortiz is reportedly in line for a $4M bonus. Since the Phillies slot is only $3,041,700, Ortiz will put them over by himself. So, they may as well sign everyone they like, and a few others.
Conversely, they should go for as near ML-ready talent in the Rule 4 draft this June as possible. They might get a top 5 pick (perhaps top 3 or better) in 2016, and a pretty good one the year after. Their first pick could be a no-brainer, the next two years, so this year at #10, I don’t see the need to take a riskier pick.
It frustrates me to no end that Ruben and Company will be the ones making that #10 pick this year. Their past couple 1st picks look good, but I still hate rebuilding with a GM that helped put this team into it’s current state. Especially when a large part of where we are at now was the inability to build a good farm system or produce even 1 good major league-caliber position player in over a decade. I’ll stop myself there because I could go on and on about this haha.
In all fairness, the Phils had been picking near the end of the first round when they had picks.
That does make the miss rate more likely, but then teams like the Cardinals continue to show that you can pick late in the round most years and still find good players. The Phillies previous infatuation with high-ceiling “athletes” like Larry Greene, Anthony Hewitt, Zach Collier, etc is a big reason why they are where they are today.
Last year’s draft was a step in the right direction in terms of changing that philosophy.
Sure, you’re absolutely right. The Cards are also legendary for their drafting as part of “The Cardinals Way™”
That’s a tremendous impending haul for the Dodgers. Two surefire first-round type talents and another solid MI prospect.