Archives for September 2015

NL Central Notes: Counsell, Happ, Marshall, Wainwright

By Steve Adams | September 24, 2015 at 1:33pm CDT

If newly minted Brewers GM David Stearns elects to keep Craig Counsell in the manager’s role, the two appear to be a very good fit with one another on the surface, writes David Laurila of Fangraphs. Laurila spoke to Counsell recently about how his time working in the Brewers’ front office gave him an appreciation of analytics and how his years working with Doug Melvin have made him receptive to input from the front office. “Part of what working in the office did for me was provide a lot of exposure to the analytics side,” said Counsell. “That was valuable, because every day it plays a part in your decision-making. You’re challenged by what your eyes are telling you, you’re challenged by what the information is telling you, and you strike a balance. That’s managing. … [A] great thing about working in the front office was that it gave me a different perspective. You see the game differently. When you’re in the forest every day, you always don’t see it.” The entire interview is well worth a read, as Counsell offers an insightful, forward-thinking take on the evolving role of a manager and the incorporation of data and analytical information into his job.

A few more notes from the league’s toughest division…

In the final minutes leading up to the non-waiver trade deadline, J.A. Happ had heard nothing about a trade, writes MLB.com’s Jack Etkin, leading to a very surprised reaction from the lefty when he learned after the deadline had passed that he’d been dealt to the Pirates in a last-minute swap. Happ’s trade didn’t make too many headlines, but he’s been a vital component to the Pirates’ stretch drive, Etkin notes, pitching to a brilliant 2.28 ERA in nine starts with Pittsburgh. Happ appears to be yet another triumph for vaunted Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, as his ERA, along with his 10.2 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 rates, rank as the best work of his career. Happ, however, is just happy to have the opportunity to contribute to a playoff push — a sensation he hasn’t had since 2008-09 with the Phillies. “You come in and kind of realize what this team’s doing and what they’re capable of,” Happ said. “It’s been a lot of fun. It feels good to contribute.”
Sean Marshall’s career has been dramatically altered by shoulder surgeries, but the 33-year-old Reds left-hander tells C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he still hopes to play beyond the 2015 season. Marshall, who thought the surgery he underwent in May (his second shoulder operation) could be career-ending, now hopes to pitch for the Reds before the season comes to a close. He’s dropped his arm angle about four to six inches, he estimates. “I want to keep playing,” Marshall tells Rosecrans. “I’m not ready to hang ’em up yet. I still feel great.”
Adam Wainwright threw 25 pitches to teammates yesterday, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. However, the injured Cardinals ace, who hopes to return for the postseason as a reliever, said he still feels “a hair off,” even though he considers his pitches to be “game-ready.” The next step for Wainwright is a simulated game without a screen (he threw from behind a screen Wednesday) so that he can field his position. Manager Mike Matheny wouldn’t offer any definitive take on whether or not Wainwright would pitch in the playoffs, stating that the decision would come down to what’s best for the team. He did, however, note that he’s a firm believer that, come the postseason, experience is an important factor.

Podcast: Adam McCalvy Breaks Down The Brewers

By Cray Allred | September 24, 2015 at 11:30am CDT

MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy joins host Jeff Todd to break down all the recent changes in the Brewers organization, including the hiring of David Stearns as the team’s new general manager and the trade deadline deals that came before. There’s been a lot of movement in Milwaukee already, and that could set the stage for a busy winter.

Click here to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, and please leave a review! The podcast is also available via Stitcher at this link.

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast runs weekly on Thursday afternoons.

AL Notes: Lewis, Souza, Travis

By Jeff Todd | September 24, 2015 at 10:08am CDT

Let’s have a look in at a few notes from the American League:

The Rangers’ investment in righty Colby Lewis has paid dividends, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes. While the 36-year-old’s 4.36 ERA is not overly impressive, he is closing in on 200 innings pitched and has been worth about two wins above replacement (give or take). That’s exactly the kind of steady presence the club hoped for after experiencing an incredible rash of recent pitching injuries. Looking ahead to the offseason, Lewis indicated that he wants to keep pitching and will evaluate his options. “We’ll just have to see how this plays out,” he said. “If they want me back, we’ll go from there. It’s still a business. Everybody’s got to be on board with it. It’s going to be a situation ultimately for this front office and a lot of others. I feel like when I’m healthy and enjoying the game, I’m going to eat up innings and try to give you a chance to win every night.” From the team’s perspective, Daniels heaped praise on the veteran and indicated that there is interest in another contract. “We’ll address that at the end of the year,” Daniels said. “But I don’t think anyone here wants Colby pitching in another uniform.”
Steven Souza’s 2015 season hasn’t gone quite the way that he and the Rays hoped, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times explains. Souza himself labeled it “a trial,” saying that he hasn’t handled the pressure of being a major trade acquisition as well as he could have. “I was taking a load I didn’t need to take, trying to carry the team and hit a homer every single pitch,” he said. “That’s just not realistic.” As Topkin rightly notes, it’s promising to see the 26-year-old take accountability. And it isn’t as if Souza has had a complete disaster of a season: he owns a 105 wRC+ and has rated well on the basepaths, though his defensive metrics aren’t great. Certainly, there’s plenty of time for him to make good on the club’s investment, and it’s worth noting that Souza has performed well since returning from a fractured hand.
Another young player who was recently traded, Devon Travis of the Blue Jays, hit the ground running with his new organization. But his year ended prematurely due to exploratory shoulder surgery. As MLB.com’s Gregory Chisholm reports, the rookie ultimately had a cyst drained and a “general cleanup” in the procedure. It does not appear as if anything more serious was identified, which seems to rate as good news. Expectations are that Travis will be ready for a full spring, when he’ll look to build off of an outstanding start to his career.

Francoeur, Phillies Have Mutual Interest In Return

By Jeff Todd | September 24, 2015 at 8:13am CDT

Outfielder Jeff Francoeur says that both he and the Phillies have interest in a continued relationship beyond this season, as CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reports. A reunion has long seemed a distinct possibility, particularly since the Phillies reportedly pulled him back after an August waiver claim.

There’s still some uncertainty, of course. Francoeur will return to the free agent market this winter, and he could field interest from other clubs. And the organization may wait to allow its new general manager — once hired — make a final call.

“There’s mutual interest in me coming back,” said Francoeur. “They’ve got a lot going on in the front office with the general manager search, with Pete (Mackanin) taking over as manager. Like anything else, there will be an appropriate time to address it, but there’s mutual interest.”

Francoeur has provided more in terms of pop than on-base ability from an offensive standpoint, slashing .257/.287/.427 with 12 home runs over 324 plate appearances. That line is good for only a 91 wRC+. And defensive metrics are not enamored of his work in the corner outfield, where he still possesses a good arm but has below-average range.

While Francoeur’s value is somewhat limited on the field, he did draw interest at the deadline and showed enough for at least one (thus-far unreported) team to put in a waiver claim. And as Salisbury writes, the 31-year-old seems to have impressed the rebuilding organization as a veteran presence in a changing clubhouse. As the Phils look to work in a variety of young outfielders, he could continue to function as a mentor and stabilizing force.

NL West Notes: Anderson, Padres, Gray, De La Rosa, Weiss

By Steve Adams | September 23, 2015 at 10:17pm CDT

As Pedro Moura of the Orange County Register recently pointed out on Twitter, Brett Anderson has accumulated enough innings that he’s reached the incentive portion of his one-year contract with the Dodgers. The left-hander’s deal calls for a $10MM base, but Anderson received an extra $300K for reaching both 150 and 155 innings, and he received an additional $350K upon reaching 160 and 165 innings. Currently sitting at 168 2/3 innings, Anderson will receive another $350K for reaching 170 and 175 innings, and he’ll earn $400K for every five innings he amasses beyond that point, up to 200. Obviously, he won’t reach the 200 inning maximum given the limited amount of time left this season, but Anderson’s already secured an additional $1.3MM and could conceivably earn an additional $1.5MM or so before season’s end, making for a very hefty payday.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/23/2015

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2015 at 8:59pm CDT

Here are today’s minor moves …

The Giants are calling up veteran infielder Kevin Frandsen, reports Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link). As Pavlovic notes, the Giants’ position-player depth has been hit hard by injuries, so Frandsen can provide some depth for the final couple weeks of the season. He’s not on the 40-man roster and will thus require a 40-man move to accommodate his promotion.
Giants outfielder Daniel Carbonell has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Carbonell was recently designated for assignment to free up 40-man space. It’s not terribly surprising that he cleared, as he is still in the midst of the four-year, $3.5MM deal that he signed with San Francisco as an international free agent out of Cuba. The 24-year-old advanced to Double-A this year after putting up solid-enough numbers in the lower minors, but sputtered to a .146/.173/.194 slash in 214 plate appearances there.

East Notes: Bogaerts, Parra, Howard, Samuel

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2015 at 8:02pm CDT

22-year-old Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has emerged as a quality big leaguer this year, and that often means that it’s time to wonder whether and when extension talks will begin. While agent Scott Boras isn’t known for deals that keep his players off the open market, he tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he is always willing to listen, even for a player with Bogaerts’ pedigree. Boras, who recently met with Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski regarding several current Sox clients, explained: “Look, I always tell every team and every player, we’re an open door. Anything they want to look at and offer, and then the player just has to make his judgments, so we evaluate that.” He praised the organization for its work in helping Bogaerts make an impressive leap this year, though his (justifiably) high opinion of the young infielder also suggests that the price tag would be high. Bogaerts has slashed .325/.356/.429, with seven home runs and ten steals, over 602 plate appearances on the season and will be eligible for arbitration for the first time after 2016.

Here are some more links from around the game’s eastern divisions:

The Nationals have pursued Orioles outfielder Gerardo Parra previously, including at this year’s trade deadline, and could make a run at him in free agency, James Wagner of the Washington Post writes. Washington ultimately lost the veteran to Baltimore, in part because the Nats wanted the Brewers to help cover his salary. But the team has a potential need for a left-handed-hitting outfielder who could spend time in center field, Wagner notes, and that could make Parra an offseason target. (For what it’s worth, I agree that Parra could be a good fit in D.C., though as I wrote recently, he might well command a significant contract this winter.) From his perspective, Parra says he is pleased to be with the O’s at present but noted that he maintains a high level of respect for Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo and manager Matt Williams, both of whom he knows from his days with the Diamondbacks.
Phillies president Andy MacPhail says that he expects slugger Ryan Howard to be with the team next spring, as Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Despite trading other former core pieces, the club has yet to find a willing taker for enough of the aging slugger’s remaining $35MM in obligations to make a deal. “I don’t know what’s going to happen over the course of the winter, what opportunities may be available for us and for him,” said MacPhail. He continued to add: “But right now, he’s somebody that I think we have a vested interest in getting back healthy and getting him to Clearwater and getting that bat in our lineup that we don’t have without him.”
The Phillies interviewed first base coach Juan Samuel as a managerial candidate before deciding to name Pete Mackanin the permanent skipper, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. While Samuel says he’s more than open to returning to Philadelphia in a coaching capacity, Samuel indicated that he’d like to explore the possibility of finding a job running a club. “I’ve been cautious not trying to put my name out there because I just don’t want to [interview] for the sake of doing it,” he said. “If I feel like I have a shot and I think I could be the right guy then, of course, I would do it. I also think that I’m capable of doing it, I’m prepared and I’m ready to do it. I got a taste of it in Baltimore and I enjoyed it. It’s something that is my ultimate goal. Before I hang it up, I would like to get a shot, whether it’s here or somewhere else.”

Quick Hits: GMs, Data, Prospects

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2015 at 6:29pm CDT

ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick takes an interesting look at the changing general managerial landscape around the league. The Brewers just hired thirty-year-old David Stearns to take the helm, of course, and Crasnick notes that several other young, analytically-minded executives are in the hunt for other GM positions. As he explains, however, there is more nuance both to the more youthful newcomers and the more established GM candidates on the market. While there is a cyclical element to front office hiring, says Crasnick, it’s also true that the job has changed significantly, with baseball operations departments growing in size and diversity of functions. Then, there’s the fact that team ownership is increasingly savvy and data-driven as the amount of money involved has skyrocketed. (Crasnick quotes one executive who notes that many owners are very hands-on: “They’ll see something on the MLB Trade Rumors site and call you and say, ’Why didn’t we know about this?'”) You’ll want to give the piece a full read.

Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:

While the use of data in baseball is a given at this point, that doesn’t mean it isn’t continuing to evolve. Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal sat down recently with two key figures in analytics, A’s GM Billy Beane and noted sabermetrician Bill James, for a compelling chat. Both agreed that, while teams often work on fascinating projects behind closed doors, the analytical work done in the public realm still offers the greatest capacity for knowledge advancement because it is subject to broad scrutiny and capable of being built up from a gathering of many minds. Of course, as Beane notes, an increasing number of the people who might once have written in public fora are now employed by teams.
If you feel it’s been too long since the last exciting new Cuban player popped up on the radar, then check out this piece from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. He highlights a 16-year-old known as Lazarito — full name: Lazaro Robersy Armenteros Arango — who has impressive skills and a rising profile. Lazarito is currently in Haiti, where he’s preparing to showcase his talents and continuing the process of achieving free agency. While he still has a lot to prove, Lazarito already stands out in one regard: he’s much younger than most Cuban prospects that are attempting to move into MLB organizations.
Baseball America is running through the top prospects in each of the minor leagues. It’s an ongoing process, but now would be a good time to take a peek if you’re interested in seeing how recent draft picks and rising international youngsters are progressing, as BA is most of the way through its Rookie ball ratings. Among the players placing highly are Brewers prospects Trent Clark and Gilbert Lara, Brendan Rodgers of the Rockies, and Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker.

Indians Designate Tyler Holt For Assignment

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2015 at 4:28pm CDT

The Indians have designated outfielder Tyler Holt for assignment, according to a club announcement. His 40-man spot was needed for catcher Adam Moore, whose contract was purchased from Triple-A.

Holt, 26, has struggled in fairly minimal major league time over the past two years. In 703 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, though, he has put up an interesting .304/.398/.382 slash line. As that would suggest, Holt doesn’t have much pop — he has just six career MiLB home runs. But he does offer some speed, and has swiped 45 bags in the highest level of the minors.

As for the 31-year-old Moore, who signed as a minor league free agent, this will represent his sixth consecutive season with at least some time on a MLB active roster. He has less than 300 plate appearances over that span, however, without much production. In his 355 trips to the plate this year at Columbus, Moore owns a .282/.328/.397 slash with six home runs.

Poll: Valuing A Bryce Harper Extension

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2015 at 3:51pm CDT

In this week’s MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams opined that it might take a 13-year, $375MM offer — or more — for the Nationals to make a serious run at extending outfielder Bryce Harper. That number factors in an estimated $36MM over two seasons of arbitration eligibility (2017-18) and then eleven more years at a $31MM AAV. A contract of that magnitude would be enough to best Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM deal (which also included a significant opt-out provision).

That’s an immense amount of cash, but Harper is about to cap a 10 WAR season at just 22 years of age. The Scott Boras client will hit the open market before he turns 26 years of age, and would have more or less unprecedented earning capacity if he maintains anything approaching his current level of production.

To put things in some perspective, in addition to the Stanton deal, consider the Tigers’ extension of Miguel Cabrera. At the time, Cabrera was set to enter his age-31 season after a huge 2013 campaign that capped a sustained run of excellence at the plate. He was already controlled for two years and $44MM, but the club added another eight seasons and $248MM on top of that (along with two vesting options at $30MM a pop). The AAV of the extension is $31MM, the same amount that Steve theorized for Harper.

While there’s no indication that Harper and the Nats are talking, or have plans to do so, it’s interesting to consider what it might take to get something done. It’s conceivable, of course, that the parties could consider a different type of deal — Mike Trout’s six-year, $144.5MM extension provides another model altogether — but a maximum value scenario seems more plausible.

Adding eleven free agent seasons at a $20MM average annual value would push Harper past $250MM. At $24MM annually, the total guarantee would be an even $300MM. Or, if you think that Steve is light, and Harper could take down $35MM a year over his free-agent-eligible campaigns, we’d be staring at a $421MM tab.

Assuming the scenario that Steve proposed — two arb years plus eleven more — what kind of cash do you think would be fair and adequate compensation to get a 13-year deal done? Remember, you can discuss in the comments or join the debate over on Instagram.

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