Entering the season, Ian Desmond carried the reputation of being one of the game’s top all-around shortstops. From 2012-14, he averaged 23 homers and 22 steals per season, hitting .275/.326/.462 and playing passable, if unspectacular defense along the way. Depending on your defensive metrics of choice (DRS considered him below average, while UZR said slightly above average), Desmond was consistently worth about 3.5 to 4.5 wins per season. That kind of track record and the fact that he didn’t turn 30 until this summer made a $100MM+ commitment on the free agent market seem likely. (Desmond had, in fact, already turned down an offer in excess of $100MM from the Nationals, though it was said to come with a large amount of deferred money.)
The first three and a half months of the season, though, could scarcely have been worse. Desmond struggled in the field immensely and even more so at the plate. On July 19, his season batting line bottomed out at an unthinkable and uncharacteristic .204/.248/.324. While that cutoff is admittedly very arbitrary, his production following that date more or less mirrored his excellent numbers from 2012-14; Desmond hit .272/.343/.464 with 12 homers and eight steals over his final 68 contests. Unfortunately for him, his overall season line wasn’t salvageable. He finished his walk year at .233/.290/.384.
The question now facing Desmond is what that ugly three-and-a-half-month run did to his free agent stock. Disastrous first half aside, his strong finish probably did restore some value in the eyes of interested parties, and there’s little else available on the shortstop market. Asdrubal Cabrera is coming off a nice season, but teams have long been wary of his defense and some may view him as a second baseman. Other options such as Jimmy Rollins, Alexei Ramirez and Stephen Drew had equally, if not more disappointing seasons.
While some will suggest that Desmond accept a qualifying offer (if it’s made) or sign a one-year deal to rebuild value, few players want to go the one-year route, and it’d be surprising to see the lone prominent shortstop on the market not end up with a rather sizable multi-year deal. But let’s see what MLBTR readers think.
For this exercise, we’ll focus on the number of guaranteed years, rather than the average annual value of those seasons. Which scenario do you see as most likely?
Desmond will be the best shortstop in the market. With a 2.0 WAR in a down year, which he eventually turned around, I can see a team going hard after him thinking they can grab him on a relative bargain (less than if he had been a Free Agent a year earlier). At age 30, four years and a team option / buyout sounds appropriate to me.
Question for Nationals fans. Do you guys dislike Papelbon enough to take Angel Pagan straight up in a trade if you lose Span to FA? Money is almost even and you have to figure he isn’t all that welcome in that clubhouse anymore after the Harper thing. I could be wrong but I’m just trying to think of ways to get rid of Pagan.
Pagan for papelbon? Then yes we couldn’t fill out the paperwork fast enough.
As a Giants fan, I’m not sure what I think.
I dislike Pagan, but I’m not sure adding Papelbon is a great move, either.
Me neither, but at this point in their careers I think Papelbon is the more valuable baseball player and the Giants bullpen wasn’t great this year. Pagan is a bit of a primadonna as well and was perhaps the worst everyday player in the league this year. I feel like if anyone could get Paps to stop being a clown it would be Bochy and Rags. Basically, I just don’t want to see Pagan taking ab’s from Blanco or Parker or whoever else next season.
Surprised 380 people think he would actually accept a QO