NOV. 5: The Royals announced on Thursday that Gordon, unsurprisingly, will receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer. Gordon is a virtual lock to reject that one-year offer in favor of a multi-year deal on the open market, but the QO ensures that the Royals will receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round in next year’s draft, should Gordon sign elsewhere. Any team that signs Gordon will have to forfeit its top unprotected draft pick. (The first 10 picks of next year’s draft are protected.)
NOV. 4: Royals left fielder Alex Gordon has declined his $14MM player option and is now officially a free agent, the team announced today. The 31-year-old Gordon, a client of Excel Sports Management, will now be able to test the open market for the first time in his career.
For now, the Royals have a couple of days of exclusive negotiation rights with Gordon, as teams are granted those exclusive rights for five days following the World Series. It’d be surprising if a contract of this magnitude were able to be hammered out in such a small window, and it’d also be unusual for Gordon to accept an offer without at least gauging his value on the open market, so he seems likely to solicit interest from other clubs beginning Saturday. That means the Royals will at least be able to extend Gordon a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer, which would net the team a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round in next year’s draft, should Gordon ultimately sign with another club.
Gordon missed nearly two months with a strained groin this season but enjoyed a characteristically strong overall campaign both at the plate and in the field. The lifetime Royal hit .271/.377.432 with 13 home runs and was seven runs above average in left field despite the layoff, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating.
The former No. 3 overall draft pick arrived on the scene with big expectations in 2007, with many hoping Gordon to become the team’s third baseman of the future. His infield work didn’t pan out, and for awhile, his swing didn’t, either. Gordon hit just .229/.319/.365 in 470 plate appearances from 2009-10, leading many to apply the dreaded “bust” label when referencing him. However, Gordon moved to the outfield full-time in 2011 and broke out with an outstanding .303/.376/.502 batting line and 23 homers.
Since that time, Gordon has batted .281/.359/.450 despite his spacious home environs, leading park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ to peg his offense at about 20 percent better than a league-average hitter. Over that incredible stretch, Andrelton Simmons and Jason Heyward are the only players in baseball who have carried more defensive value, according to both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved.
With a strong track record at the plate, in the field and on the basepaths, Gordon will be one of the most in-demand free agents this offseason and could command a five-year deal worth roughly $20MM annually. That would shatter the Royals’ franchise record for largest contract, which currently stands at five years and $55MM. While that type of spending is far beyond Kansas City’s typical capacity, one has to wonder if the team would make an exception for Gordon, who has become the face of the Royals franchise and whom fans would undoubtedly like to see in Royals blue for the entirety of his career.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Somebody will probably give him 5/$90……the thought of paying a 36/37 year old $18m a year in KC makes me cringe. I’d love to buy his 33,34 seasons for $18m each but beyond that KC can’t risk a miss that big.
Defense generally doesn’t age well beyond 30 and that’s Gordon’s main asset going into Free Agency. While I don’t think his defense would fall off completely by the time he’s 35, I don’t think anyone will expect him to be the stud he’s been since being converted to the OF.
Someone will pay him for the possibility of him being a 5-7WAR player in 2016 and 2017. It’ll probably be a high payroll club that takes that risk. I see him getting around what you’re suggesting he might get.
The real fact is the Royals are gonna have to develop some players from the farm club eventually…..its been a very slow 3 years from a minor leaguers making an impact on the club standpoint
Good thing the Royals won it all. It’s a double whammy when a club has the farm system slow down in terms of yielding quality prospects combined with being unable or unwilling to sign its own free agents. Dayton Moore will need to be creative to keep KC competitive but at least it’s now a desirable place to play.
Exactly!, KC won in their current window of contention. That’s everything.
They should be above average to very good for the foreseeable future……just with a few holes here and there..in this post season they just had no warts, and that is really rare if not downright unbelievable
Well said. The thing that hurts the Royals the most right now is their current tv contract that is just awful. 2nd or 3rd worse in all of baseball. Pays them only 20 million a year and contract does not end until 2019. Cardinals were in the bottom 5 as well but just recently signed a new tv contract that will pay them 50 million a yr and a 30% stake as well. KC signed this long contract years ago when they were awful and now it is coming back to haunt them. Wish it could get re-structured but that is not going to happen. Fox Sports loves this steal of a deal just like the Royals love Salvy’s contract and will not re-structure any time soon. Sigh……….
What’s the word on J. Bonifacio and/or B. Starling?
At least 2017 on those guys
I have a feeling Bubba will see some playing time in 2016 if he continues progressing early in the season seeing as he is going to have to be on the 40 man.
Does anyone think Reymond Fuentes or Jose Martinez can earn ABs for the Royals next year if Gordon leaves? Furentes scored 70 runs and swiped 29 bases in 107 games for Omaha last year and Martinez may have finally grown into his 6’7″ body by OPSing 1.000+ in 98 games in Omaha. Starling and Bonifacio both need another year or two in the minors.
While he probably won’t just accepting the qualifying offer, it would get him $15.8M if he did, That makes him turning down $12.5M player option smart move.
4 year $84mill front loaded deal.
$23m, $23m, $19m, $19m
Los Angeles Angels
For that price the Angels can have him……..I could see the royals going 18, 18, 18, 15, 10, Mutual option 8 (w 2m buyout)………5/81 or 6/87
I have an extremely hard time seeing him get less than $21 for at least those first two years, or getting more than 5 years unless like you mentioned there is an option.
Some team will be $20+ sexy for him if they believe he can be that guy who can put their team on that next level.
Would love to have him with the Halos, but I see him working something out with KC. The way he grinds out at-bats and plays defense; he would be a huge loss for them. IMHO
Definitely be a huge loss, but if some team is swinging around $10-15mill more than the Royals, that’s hard for him to pass up no matter how much he loves KC.
I think they will do everything in their power……..everyone needs to remember at some point they have to pay Moose, Cain, Hosmer, Kelvin Hererra, Escobar, and Salvy. Going 5 years on Gordon cuts into several of those guys.
I’d suggest trying to sign each one of them, because ultimately, KC can’t compete for top FA’s. Most, if not all are going to leave for other teams. Offer them all, because if any say yes (to less money/years) it will be a surprise. They can afford to pay Gordon because they probably won’t get the opportunity to pay the others.
1) I think Gordon will get more than an 83 MM dollar guaranty and 2) LAA wont be front loading any deals, they have a lot of money coming off the books after 2016 and 2017, if anything they will be back loading any major contracts.
Is it just me or does anyone else think bubba starling has a chance to shine
I’d love to see KC lock him up and make him the face of the franchise that he deserves to be. The guy is a stud.
That being said, if somehow the Tigers could steal him away…
Gordon has been a good player but the last three years, his numbers have dropped a bit and he’s going into his age 32 season. If some team wants to give him an absurd amount of money for a 260-15-70 player with a GG, fine. But the Royals need to move on.
Gordon posted his career best OBP and 2nd best OPS in 2015, his HR and RBI numbers are down but those are not very predictive stats anyhow.
I know Royals fans (me included) are sad to see Gordon go, but it’s time. As good as Gordon has been he is not as important as Cain/Hos/Herrera/Salvy or even Mouse are younger and deserve the big extension more than he does. Let’s not forget Gordon was our 8 hitter for quite a while this year including the post season. I love Gordon but it makes 0 sense for KC to have a 32 year old lf be our cornerstone recordbreaking contract for the next 5-6 years.
edit: In my opinion it’s more likely that the Royals persue a guy like Parra to take over in left and let Paulo get his chance in RF.
If the Cardinals miss on Jason Heyward, I can see them making an offer on him. He would be a good fit for the Cardinals.