Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda has requested that his Japanese club, the Hiroshima Carp, make him available to major league organizations through the posting process, as Yasuko Yanagita of Hochi Shimbun first reported on Twitter.
Maeda spun 206 1/3 innings of 2.09 ERA pitching last year. While he’s not a huge strikeout pitcher — he’s never topped 8.1 K/9 over a single season — Maeda is no slouch in that department. And he features impeccable control, with an excellent 1.9 BB/9 walk rate for his career.
It remains to be seen whether the NPB organization will make the highly-regarded right-hander available, as Kyodo News reports (paywall link, h/t to MLB.com’s Joey Nowak). Hiroshima’s general manager Kiyoaki Suzuki said that Maeda’s “request might be granted,” indicating that he’d likely “decide on a course of action around the end of next week.”
If the Carp follow the wishes of their staff ace, the rules provide that the posting team must set a release fee of no more than $20MM. Any team willing to meet that price is permitted to negotiate with the player in an attempt to work out a contract within a thirty day window from the date of posting. The release fee is only due if a deal is struck.
The 27-year-old Maeda figures to take up a prominent place in the winter’s starting pitching market if he is made available. With Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka serving as recent examples of the ability of top Japanese starters to transition to the big leagues, there should be no shortage of interest.
It would be surprising if Hiroshima sets the release fee at anything short of the $20MM maximum. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Maeda 14th on his list of the top fifty free agents, predicting that the Japanese star would command a total commitment (including the fee) of five years and $80MM — putting him right alongside quality MLB starters such as Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, and Wei-Yin Chen in expected earning power.
Phillies you have the money make it happen.
Signing the guy from age 27 on wouldn’t be a bad idea. 5/80M isn’t really a ton for the Phillies right now, considering they’ll only have 5 players making more than 5M next season.
I would love to see the Phillies sign him but I don’t see happening. At 27 he’s hot mileage on his arm, he projects to be shade lower than Tanaka and I can’t see the Phillies investing in a player like Maeda when we don’t plan to contend until 2018-19. Still would like to see it though, bring some excitement in for the fans.
Smartest statement today!
Matsuzaka 1st 2 seasons: 9.4 rWAR
Darvish 1st 2 seasons: 9.7 rWAR
Tanaka 1st 2 seasons: 6.3 rWAR
I don’t remember where I read this, but I think Maeda will hit free agency in the NPB after next season, so it would make sense for the Carp to get something out of him while they can by posting him.
i believe (and a quick google seems to confirm) that his free agency isn’t until after 2017. if this was their last chance to post him i think we would have heard more about that, and it would be seen as more of a sure thing to happen instead of a maybe
Minnesota could use a rotation replacement for the departing Mike Pelfrey. Essentially Jose Berrios may be the guy but he is exceedingly young and may need a little more seasoning still. Minnesota needs an ace, they have plenty of solid #2/3 guys but no shut it down ace! This needs to be a priority for this organization if they want to make some noise in the near future.
This could draw a lot of surprise teams. Colorado and Arizona should be all over him. I don’t know how DD values him, but if he sees an ace that is another major suitor. Anywhere from 10-20 teams should show interest and have the capital to get it done
If he really costs $80m for five years, I think you’ll see less activity than you might think. Remember, there is no blind bidding anymore. You put in $20m and all you get is the right to negotiate along with all the other teams that made that offer. And then he (no doubt) goes to a big market competitive team. And at that price I dunno about you but I think I’d rather have Chen or Kazmir or even Shark.
You get the $20MM back if you don’t sign him, though. So there’s not much risk in at least seeing where the negotiations go.
Yes, but what he’s getting at is that’s a 20 million that could be spent elsewhere instead of posting.
You wouldn’t be able to get much for $20 million with the market at the moment. Most mid tier pitchers are going to require $10-15 AAV. The top tier relief pitchers are going to cost around that in AAV (although closer to the $10 million mark and less). Position player wise, you can probably pick up 2-3 guys depending on role and their numbers with $20 million. The top players (outside of relievers) are going to cost around $20 million per year anyway and anyone not in that second to third tier of players are not worth signing this early when they might be had for cheaper later in the offseason or a couple of minor league deals might be able to put up similar production. If $20 million is too big to try posting a fee, especially when you get it back if it doesn’t work, then getting a mid tier player is the least of your worries since you’re probably a cap-strapped team looking to fill out the roster.
Point is you’ll have to bit up into the $16-18m AAV stratosphere to get him (once you include the bid), and many teams will prefer a proven MLB starter.
i still don’t understand why the japanese teams agreed to cap their own posting fees like that
With Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka serving as recent examples of the ability of top Japanese starters to transition to the big leagues for one season and then blow out their elbows, there should be no shortage of interest.
-Fixed
Darvish lasted 3 seasons.
Rangers sign him image a rotation with
Hamels darvish maeda holland and Perez
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Mariners go in an sign him as a longer term replacement for Iwakuma. He’d be about the same price annually.
Felix, Iwakuma, Maeda would give the m’s a much needed third top of the line starter, but that’s possibly too much wishful thinking
I am a mariner fan and Maeda would probably be very good when healthy, but he will probably have to miss time because the Japanese pitchers tend to get injured more often, so I think it would be a very bad decision to sign a injury prone player rather than someone who can hold up longer.
Mets sign him then trade one of their starters to get a bat
I’d be hesitant going after Maeda if I were a GM. His average K/9 in Japan is lower than Darvish’s and Tanaka’s and I would expect it to decrease even more when he transitions to MLB. I certainly wouldn’t pay top dollar for him with the expectation that he’ll become a mid-rotation starter rather than a staff ace.
Phillies need to get this done
Rogers second richest owner in baseball win this bid!!!
depending on cost, his low strikeout low w/bb style is very giants.
Selfishly rooting for him to stay in Japan……at least 1 more year.
Wow, 154 pounds. Would be one of the slightest built starting pitchers ever in the big leagues.
the angels need to make a move and get this done for Maeda
Giants
Padres FO spending a lot of time and brain power in Japan, are they ready to spend some money?