Here’s the latest on the Padres’ present and future…
- In a wide-ranging interview with several members of Padres upper management, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that the club isn’t looking at 2016 as a rebuilding year. “[2015] was part of a journey, part of the plan. 2016 brings a next step with a new manager and a team we think is going to compete,” team president/CEO Mike Dee said. The general refrain is that the Padres’ quieter offseason has been about bolstering the minor league ranks while also adding some Major League pieces “who are going to be a fit and complement the roster,” GM A.J. Preller said. Part of the reason for optimism is, simply, the feeling that the Padres are bound to improve simply because pretty much everything went wrong last season.
- Preller defended the decision to not trade Craig Kimbrel, Ian Kennedy or other pieces at last July’s deadline, noting that what was offered for those players last year wasn’t as valuable as what the Padres eventually got back from the Red Sox for Kimbrel, or the first-round compensation pick received when Kennedy signed with the Royals. “There’s always a time and a place to make deals. It’s not as easy as saying, hey, we should’ve traded everyone at the trade deadline. Whether it’s adding or moving players, you’re trying to get value,” Preller said.
- The Padres are widely expected to be heavy spenders in the 2016-17 international signing period that opens on July 2, and they also own six picks within the top 85 selections of the 2016 amateur draft. This focus on lower-priced youngsters who (ideally) can develop into stars is a key part of San Diego’s strategy. “What we feel strategically is, money spent on amateur draft signings is money well spent,” chief shareholder Peter Seidler tells Lin. “It’s basically going to be almost certainly less than what Ian Kennedy gets for one year…If we get back out of this draft two players that go through our system and become All-Stars, obviously it’s money well spent.”
- ESPN’s Buster Olney took a much less optimistic view of the Padres’ situation in a recent subscription-only column, arguing that the team’s offseason moves have all the look of a club that is embarking on a rebuild. The Padres, in Olney’s view, have little choice but to start over after “last winter’s ill-fated binge” of spending. Between adding expensive salaries and trading prospects, Olney hears from some rival evaluators that the Padres cost themselves hundreds of millions worth of value last offseason. Olney suggests that the Padres should take advantage of the weak 2016-17 free agent class by offering their veterans (and really, anyone on the roster) in trades to amass young talent.
- Right-handed pitching prospect Ryan Butler has been issued a 50-game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. This is Butler’s second positive test for a drug of abuse. The 23-year-old Butler was a seventh-round draft pick for the Padres in 2014 and he cracked the Double-A level for the first time last season. Butler was ranked 13th (by MLB.com) and 14th (by Baseball America) in recent rankings of the top prospects in San Diego’s minor league system, with MLB.com’s scouting report noting that Butler could be on the fast track to the majors if he was made a full-time reliever.
Fully understand what Preller is saying about getting better value by waiting with Kimbrel and Kennedy.
The exception is the odd decision not to move Justin Upton before the deadline. That decision cost the Pads so much in terms of talent to acquire from the Braves (including eventually trading for his unproductive, overpaid brother who they still have). Painfully obvious Justin Upton wasn’t going to re-sign and just grabbing a draft pick for him is a loss in terms of on field and minor league talent.
We don’t really know what was offered for JUp at the deadline. At that time the Pads were going into a couple of series with weak opponents. There was a very outside shot of getting back in the race if there was a turn around at that point. Of course in true Pads fashion they blew that up by losing a series to Milwaukee and getting swept at home by the rebuilding Phillies….
I’m sure that outside chance of a turn around plus fan goodwill was weighed against what was offered for Upton vs the pick they got. It’s not a forgone conclusion that it was the wrong move. Depends on how the draft picks work out.
I still imagine an outside chance of reaching the playoffs, fan goodwill and a draft pick to be worth nearly what they gave to Atlanta to acquire Upton: Atlanta received minor league left-hander Max Fried, infielders Dustin Peterson and Jace Peterson, outfielder Mallex Smith and international bonus compensation.
We had no chance of making the playoffs and fan goodwill means nothing when determining what to do with Justin Upton. It’s one thing if Preller preferred the extra draft pick over whatever he was offered for Upton but I seriously doubt no one offered him anything worth more than the extra draft pick for Upton at the deadline. I mean, he’s a really good player.
Who really cares what ‘rival evaluators’ think? Preller tried to make a splash last year. I remember people like Tim Kurkijian saying that with the Kimbrel move, the Padres should be a favorite to make it to the World Series.
Sure, it didn’t pan out. We gave up a lot of prospects. We have recouped more than we gave up for Kimbrel. We got value for Benoit. We got picks for Upton and Kennedy. Some things work out…some things don’t.
I for one was pumped with all the moves. Of all the people that Preller gave up, only two was a bit disappointed…Trea Turner and Jake Bauers. I think Bauers will be a solid everyday ML player.
er, were a disappointment
You’re forgetting that we took on Melvin Upton in the first Kimbrel trade and we still have him now. That’s why the prospect haul we got in the second Kimbrel trade was greater than what we gave up in the first.
Yes and Melvin played well
We still have players like Melvin Upton and an aging Matt kemp who is just going to keep getting more expensive. And yes I agree with what you said about trea turner and Jake Bauers, I think Preller gave up too much in that trade.
It’s going to be an interesting season, but I think there might be a little too much optimism on the managements part though. There are three other teams in the division that all look a lot better than the Padres right now, and they will be the ones fighting it out for the playoffs.
Kemp’s salary 2016-19 remains the same, including the subsidy paid by the Dodgers.
Ah, I see. Thanks, I totally forgot about the Dodgers subsidy.
We gave up Grandal and Weiland for Kemp. Weiland has already been sent packing
Yeah, and I pretty sure they traded Zach Eflin too, but he’s on the Phillies now. For that trade, it’s not really who they gave up, I just don’t like to think about how it’s going to look in a couple more years if Kemps age really starts to get to him, especially with his defense.
I’m not upset about losing any of those guys in that trade. However, just getting Kemp off their roster helps the Dodgers by clearing salary and clearing an outfield spot for Joc Pederson. They were desperate to get rid of him. It’s a miracle they were able to get ANYTHING for Kemp without eating more than half of his contract, let alone a catcher who made the All-Star game for them last season.
What Preller doesn’t mention in his reason for lack of trade deadline activity is:
– Maybe $10M -$15M in contracts could have been saved by dealing Upton, Kennedy,Benoit, etc in July
– These trades would have contributed to a “tanking”, resulting in likely higher draft position.
Preller is fortunate that Kennedy pulled his act together those last two months. Otherwise, a qualifying offer may not have been in the cards.
Also, Mike Dee’s comments about contending this year are beyond ridiculous. As a Pads fan, I wish he would go away.
I agree with your comments about Dee. There would have to be a lot that would have to go right in order for the team to even get a chance at sniffing a Wild Card spot. That includes things like: better overall defense, pitchers bouncing back (Shields, Cashner, etc.), possible breakouts from players like Myers, etc.
You’re right fibert the smart thing to do is trade Kimbrel, Upton, Benoit and Kennnedy at the deadline for a lesser return just because it saves money and gives the team an opportunity to tank. Preller should have you as his assistant GM. Brilliant philosophy who cares about player value when you can save a few bucks. Lol. I thought my fellow Padres fans were tired of losing and doing to same ol thing but it appears there are some who fully embrace it.
You don’t get it. If he doesn’t trade Upton, Benoit and Kennedy at the deadline he is going to get ZERO return. So no, trading them to the highest bidder at the deadline is not trading them for a “lesser return.” You are right about Kimbrel tho because he has 3 more years of control.
Exactly, well put.
Preller has been grilled because last year didn’t pan out like most people were anticipating after all the moves made but he hasn’t done a terrible job. He Essentially killed two birds with one stone, traded away prospects he didn’t draft and maybe wasn’t as high on as the Byrnes/Hoyer regime with the thought of turning us into a quick contender last year. So when that didn’t work out he flipped Kimbrel, Benoit, Alonso, Despaigne and got back comp picks for Upton and Kennedy. So at the end of the day all he did was clean out the previous regimes minor leaguers for those of his own who he feels better about.
Preller’s first two trades were his best I believe. Headley and Street.
Headley for Solarte.. Looking at their numbers, they are almost identical since the trade. Difference is Headley is doing it under a 55 million dollar deal and Solarte is making under a million.
Street brought back, RJ Alvarez who was used to get Derek Norris and Hector Rondon who today looks like will either be the second baseman or shortstop in the future depending on what happens with Guerra.
Everything else Preller has done has been okay honestly, people want to argue the Upton Jr. Aspect of the Kimbrel trade but you don’t get Kimbrel without taking that contract on and what Kimbrel was flipped to Boston for you got to be okay with the final result. It’s too early to tell about the Myers deal, once he is healthy that will be assessed. Finally, Kemp was necessary. You had to add a face to this franchise, he might not be the player he once was in LA but he is still a professional, who will give you 20-100 which is needed in a lineup that has no power.
We had the worst offense in the history of the game in 2014, Preller had to do something to improve that.
Maybe it’s just me but the moves last offseason were made to ensure Padres got to host ASG. Pads had to increase the hype machine for that to happen. Now that Petco is hosting why keep star players? If they were serious about competing they would have made some moves to bring back key players they already had and not focus on draft (where they have horrible track record), brought in some talent and improve the roster. This offseason has set team back 2-5 years.
Also once team is out of it expect the rest if the talent to be traded before ASG, and Pads pity selection probably won’t play anyway.