The 2015-16 offseason may be remembered as the qualifying offer’s watershed. A record 20 qualifying offers were issued in November, and for the first time in the four years since the QO system was instituted, three players (Brett Anderson, Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters) actually accepted the one-year offer rather than test free agency.
As we approach Spring Training, I suspect at least some of the other 17 players may be wishing they had also taken that one-year, $15.8MM deal. (Howie Kendrick and Hisashi Iwakuma come to mind.) The qualifying offer also may have impacted a couple of names in the upper tier of the free agent market, though Chris Davis and Justin Upton did end up landing huge multi-year contracts in the end.
The three players still facing uncertainty, however, are Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo. It looks as if this trio will join Kendrick, Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales, Stephen Drew, Ervin Santana and others on the list of players whose markets were drastically affected by the QO, perhaps to the point of them eventually accepting a contract that would’ve seemed like a major bargain only a few months ago. At this point in the offseason, no team has been willing to meet the asking price and/or give up the first round draft pick necessary to sign any of three players.
While none of the trio have signed, there have been plenty of rumors surrounding each player. A recap…
Gallardo: The Orioles, Rockies and Astros have been the clubs most recently linked to the righty, with the Blue Jays, Royals and Rangers also reportedly interested at earlier points in the offseason. We can probably cross off Kansas City and Houston in the wake of their signings of Ian Kennedy and Doug Fister, while Toronto likely doesn’t have the payroll space.
The O’s are very hesitant to give up their first-rounder (the 14th overall pick) to sign Gallardo. Colorado’s first-rounder is protected so they would only have to give up a second-round pick, though GM Jeff Bridich has downplayed his team’s interest. The Rangers, of course, are the only team that can sign Gallardo without having to surrender a pick, though they may also be tapped out payroll-wise and they already have several rotation options on hand, albeit with question marks.
Fowler: The Cubs (his former team), White Sox and Rangers have all been rumored to be monitoring the outfielder’s market, with teams like the Indians, Angels, Giants and Cardinals also mentioned as speculative fits. In our last MLBTR poll, readers had the two Chicago teams as the clear favorites in predicting Fowler’s landing spot. In my view, the White Sox seem like the best fit for Fowler since thanks to their protected first-rounder, the only pick they’d have to surrender is the bonus compensation selection they received from Jeff Samardzija signing with the Giants. The Sox heavily value their draft picks, however, and their low-rated farm system needs reinforcements.
Re-signing Fowler makes some sense for the Cubs but it would create an awkward time-share between Fowler, Jorge Soler and Kyle Schwarber (Jason Heyward, obviously, would play every day in either right or center field). I wonder if the Rangers’ interest in Fowler could be tied to Gallardo’s situation; if Gallardo signs elsewhere and Texas gets a compensation pick, the team could then be more willing to give up its first-rounder (the 20th overall pick) to bring Fowler into the fold.
Desmond: The former National’s situation is at once both seemingly the most muddled yet possibly the most flexible of the trio. If reports of Desmond’s ability and willingness to play elsewhere than shortstop are still accurate, then his market could be opened up to teams looking for help at second, third or even the outfield. In a recent edition of the MLBTR Newsletter, Tim Dierkes speculated that Desmond could be a good candidate for a contract with an opt-out after the first year, or perhaps even a flat one-year “pillow contract” to minimize the risk for teams uninterested in giving up a draft pick for a player coming off a tough season.
Dierkes cited the A’s, Braves, White Sox and Tigers as a few of the teams who could be fits for Desmond, with the Rockies also a maybe depending on Jose Reyes’ situation. The Rays have also been mentioned as a dark horse candidate to sign Desmond on a semi-hometown deal, though given how Tampa is so reliant on developing young talent, it would be a big surprise to see them give up their first-rounder, the 13th overall pick of June’s draft.
Let’s open the debate up to you, the MLBTR audience. Who do you think will be the last qualifying offer free agent available this offseason? (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)
With Michael Brantley’s injury, the Indians currently have zero MLB proven outfielders on the roster. With a three-year OPS matching that of Heyward’s, signing Dexter Fowler should be a no-brainier… But then there’s the attached draft pick. The trade off of nothing more than ‘decent’ players for first round picks helps who? It’s looking like nobody.
Why wouldn’t these guys just wait until May to sign? The draft pick compensation goes away at that time, right?
They should not really have a problem staying in shape, and their skills won’t suddenly erode just from missing a few weeks. Teams will need to replace injured players, and they should love the idea of adding a solid veteran without losing their 1st round draft pick.
What is the harm in holding out until the compensation issue is gone?
It goes away after the picks are made, in early June,
You lose a half season of your career, including the salary that goes with it. Seems like a pretty major disincentive to me.
Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew both looked horrible in their half seasons after signing into the season. It’s not so much staying in game shape, it is developing a rapport with teammates and that only happens with experience. That’s one of the main reasons we have Spring Training.
Plus you also have to factor in the loss of income. Would you rather sign a 1 year/12MM contract now, or a pro-rated version of that in June where you would get 5-6MM for the rest of the year and be thrown right into the fire?
Additionally, mid and late first round draft picks are so vastly overrated. They only have about a 50% chance of ever making the big leagues and a much smaller chance of being an impact player for even a few years.
As a Rockies fan, I would love to sign Gallardo to a 4/48MM contract and give up the #38 pick. I wouldn’t be as happy to give up the pick for Fowler or Desmond, but they would still likely provide more overall value to the team than a random #38 pick and on a 1 year deal, you could just QO them again next year and probably recoup the pick.
A good point; if you could take present-day Yovani Gallardo, knowing what he is, with the #38 pick in the draft, I think any team would do that. This is why the D-Backs refusal to part with a 2nd round pick for Howie Kendrick is puzzling. Kendrick is WAY more valuable than that pick.
The experiences of Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales might convince them to sign sooner rather than holding out for a mid-season offer. After all, neither one of those two was able to step in and play at a high level, and the current crop of QO-bound free agents might expect teams to be wary of similar mid-season deals.
Maybe marginal players will realize they’re not worth as much as they think and they will accept the more than fair QO.
Great poll question!
The main reason I chose Ian Desmond, hardly a convincing one at that, was because he was the least likely to be re-signed by his former team. Good a reason as any, I suppose. (lol)
Certainly makes sense, but don’t count out a sign-and-trade; in other words, the Nats sign Desmond, then immediately trade him (with his consent) to a team looking to hang on to their first-round pick. Not saying it’s going to happen, but certainly a possibility.
I don’t believe any trade like that has ever happened. It’s technically legal but the league frowns severely on it.
Excellent idea………But the CBA does not allow a “sign-and-trade” deal to be made. A player isn’t eligible to be traded until June 15th (or right around there) when signed as a FA. Traded players can be flipped the same day….as we have seen. Whoever signs them, is stuck with them until mid June at a minimum.
No, not true. Everyone can be traded with their permission. Any other kind of arrangement is probably unconstitutional.
Maybe marginal players will quit over playing their hand and accept the QO. None of these guys had a yr last year worth the almost 16 million dollars of the QO. They made the choice to say no and new what could happen. It’s not the first yr of this.
So it’s the teams fault marginal players chose not to except almost 16 million dollars and over play their hand? Non of theDesmond, Gallardo,Fowler trio is worth that much. It’s not nonsense, if they’d have called the teams bluff they’d have 15.8 million dollars and certainty for this season.
Except it’s not nonsense, without it there wouldn’t be any parity in the game and teams like the Pirates and Royals would never make it to the postseason.
Then it should be a crap shoot like a 3rd rounder sacrifice for free agent next one say gets a 4th round pick
dexter fowler will be the last player with a QQ to sign since not too many teams need an outfielder
I think the Sox farm system is tough to compare to most since for most of Kenny Williams tenure they seemed to focus on high floor college players, these guys rarely spend much time in the minors and it seems to be a knock against a system that regularly produces major league talent.
If you would have said high floor pitchers, I might agree. But besides Sale and now Rodon (unproven), who are these major league players they have been regularly getting to the majors?
I think the QO system would work better if a minimum was also placed on the years of the offer to get draft pick compensation. It could work in two ways, either the QO would be a deal of three years at $16 million AAV(actually the average of top salaries as it is now), or the offer could remain the same but players signing one year deals would be exempt from a QO. It would limit the field of players who have the stigma of a QO to those who are truly elite talents, as those are the most likely to bypass a larger deal/unlikely to accept a one year deal. Not perfect but either scenario would be an improvement.
You could also eliminate the penalty portion of the QO, and keep the bonus draft pick portion. A radical idea I’ve seen floated is for teams losing a qualified free agent and who pick in the top 10, to get an extra pick not after the first round, but BEFORE the first round. Would also help with “tanking.” The criteria for being a qualified free agent would have to be very stringent, so it doesn’t happen very often.
The total player contract “market” for the 2015-16 off season included the 137 free agent MLB players as well as the Top 60 amatuer players and even international players. They all competed for MLB team contract dollars. If FAs and the agents are still looking at the FA market as discreet and separate they are making a big mistake Free agency is channel for player acquisition among many and the teams have finite resources to spend.
I don’t think the QO actually “hurt” players like Fowler and Kendricks. They are players with strengthens but also significant weaknesses, They were offered nearly $16M to play baseball for a year. They were not going to get that AAV in a multi-year contract. They and their agents misread the market. There is more of an emphasis on “younger and longer” and “older and shorter”. Some players like Colby Rasmus and Matt.Weider made the correct call. They correctly evaluated their demand. What the QOs did is “complicate” the decision that some players had to make. When complexity is injected into any decision the risk usually goes up and so does the consequences of making the wrong decision Greed cannot be a player/agents’sole strategy.
The QO system doesn’t work as intended (at least it doesn’t help that much with parity, although it does keep a lid on some salaries, which was probably also one of the goals). But the idea of “steal from the rich to give to the poor” as you call it, is very important. I would do it differently, by vastly increasing the penalty for going over the luxury cap, including a team losing draft picks and international pool money. But something needs to be in there, or fans of small-market teams would really begin to lose interest and you wouldn’t have a whole lot left to enjoy, even if you’re a fan of one of “the rich.”
The Sox “low rated” farm system had enough prospects to get Samardzija and Frazier, and not touch their best prospects. While I wouldn’t have made either trade, they have been churning out prospects.
I wouldn’t give up a pick for Fowler…he’s basically an averageish player and not worth that.
I don’t really diagree with any of that. My thing is the White Sox (and I am a White Sox fan) need to either do a total rebuild like the Cubs, or continue to trade away their farm system and get players to win now while Sale and Abreu are in their prime. Right now they are stuck in this “purgatory” of being average without a true gameplan in mind.
Why does it have to be one extreme or the other? Why can’t you build a good farm system without gutting the major league roster to do so? It is possible to build up your minor league system while still trying to compete at the big league level, despite what many would have you believe.
Heh (sigh)… With all the attention being paid to the QO I’d like to point out it isn’t the problem some have made it out to be.
First, there are plenty of non-QO FA that are struggling to get jobs like Juan Uribe, Austin Jackson, David Freese, Marlon Byrd, Jimmy Rollins, and Tyler Clippard. All those players are decent, and as good as players that have signed like Asdrubal Cabrera. In fact, take a look at all the current FA still available, and you can argue there is a playoff team to be built solely from players still available!
Second, there is a suggestion that the QO wrecked these players FA, yet non-QO players also saw major pay cuts in this market. In addition to the non-QO guys mentioned above, Cespedes was hurt bad by the talent flush market, as was Cueto, as was Kazmir. Yeah, Cueto, for example, had injury concerns, but his physical was sterling unlike Kenta Maeda. There was absolutely no excuse for Cespedes to have had the trouble he had.
Third, of the 20 players this year to get QO, only 4 have had major issues with it, and of the 54 players overall to receive the QO in its history only 7 have had major issues (Kendrys Morales, Stephen Drew, Ervin Santana, Kendrick, Fowler, Gallardo, and Desmond). While Nelson Cruz is mentioned in the article, he got a very nice deal from the Mariners after a QO from Baltimore, so you can’t count him. Ervin Santana also wasn’t too hurt as he was able to get a deal with the Braves, after they had a loss in the rotation, that was worth the QO, and he used it to establish the value that helped him land his current deal with the Twins. That really leaves 6 players who’ve been really hurt, but there is also a chance Fowler, Gallardo, and/or Desmond still receives a decent deal.
Fourth, the whole point of the QO should be that some players except the offer. The fact that that just now happened this year, in the programs fourth year, says that either the value of the QO is too low, or some players have rejected the deal and likely cost themselves as a result.
I don’t see anything wrong with the QO – it divides teams into building by the draft OR building by FA. That’s a system that creates parity as we’ve seen with BOTH the Royals and Mets, the two WS teams, building through their farm systems and not doing much via FA. There are plenty of representatives of the opposite strategy as well notably the 2013 Red Sox. Obviously, if you’re a player and you misjudge your market and turn down the QO you can get burned, but other factors can hurt your market regardless, just ask Cespedes!
I agree with your first point, but in regards to Cespedes, there are/were concerns about him.
I see Gallardo as the least likely to give up a draft pick for. His fastball is unimpressive and in decline. Most teams have a minor league pitcher with at least a similar arsenal. Other than being likely to provide more innings, Gallardo offers little upside to the minor league pitcher.
Going with Desmond. I predict Gallardo will sign within a week.
I think Dexter Fowler has the least options. I don’t see the White Sox signing him for reasons large, small and even petty. The Sox have a protected pick but they don’t want to be the “driver” of their cross town rivals getting a comp pick for Fowler. Suppose that pick turns out to be good MLB player? I said it was petty. I think it’s back to the Cibs for Dexter at a huge bargain (begging them to sign him) and a reduced role.
How do you know what the White Sox think?
Bring back the reserve clause.
They need to change the system a bit but not throw it out completely. I think losing the top 10 protection for picks in exchange for every team getting one “free” QO signing. Meaning you wouldn’t lose your first round pick until you sign a 2nd QO player. Teams can still receive a sandwich round pick for losing a QO guy whether or not another team loses a pick. Perhaps they could also throw in a clause about re-signing your own FA would count as your free signing as well to prevent teams from using the option too much.
It’s always good to hear the opinion of Rhodes scholars such as yourself. We appreciate your valuable time.
I think desmond has the most cons of the three. so i picked him. He had a down year coming into this offseason and i believe that hurts him the most. I also think the nationals would rather have the draft pick instead of desmond so i dont see him going back unless there is a steep discount.
Desmond should simply have accepted the offer. He sure as heck doesn’t deserve the $16 million he would have gotten, guaranteed.