Rusney Castillo needs to improve against hard fastballs, writes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Last season, the Red Sox outfielder hit just .203/.230/.203 against fastballs of 93 mph or harder. The weak performance is doubly damning because the AL East is populated with plenty of hard throwing hurlers. If Castillo can’t figure out how to barrel up more heaters, he’ll find his playing time dwindling. Fortunately, Castillo and the Red Sox aren’t without hope. Speier highlights Jackie Bradley Jr. who went from one of the worst against hard fastballs in 2014 to one of the best in 2015 (.333/.439/.745). The small sample sizes involved along with other factors can complicate the surface level analysis of these numbers.
Here’s more from Boston:
- Travis Shaw’s hot play this spring is putting pressure on third baseman Pablo Sandoval, writes Ian Browne of MLB.com. Shaw “could be competing for regular at-bats,” per manager John Farrell. Sandoval is more likely to lose time than Hanley Ramirez. Farrell also commented on Sandoval, saying “the work has to translate to performance.” Shaw is expected to spend some time in left field as well, which could put pressure on Castillo instead.
- Prospect Yoan Moncada is a good test case of the Red Sox position switching protocol, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. While Moncada is unlikely to play much second base at the big league level due to the presence of Dustin Pedroia (just ask Mookie Betts), the club won’t move a prospect to a new position until they prove proficiency at their base spot. That usually occurs at Double- or Triple-A. It’s possible Moncada’s bat will be big league ready by the end of this season, but he still has a number of developmental hurdles to overcome – in part due to the presence of Pedroia. It’s worth noting, Pedroia is signed through 2021 with a limited no trade clause.
- Throwing more breaking balls may be the key to success for Joe Kelly, writes Sean McAdam of CSN New England. That was the change he made prior to a strong eight start finish to the 2015 season. With Eduardo Rodriguez set to miss the start of the season, Kelly’s success could save the club from being forced to make a trade.
Waiting for the redsox guy…
This comment is winning…
Haha
Haha he actually has a reason to post about “his Red Sox”.
He has nothing to add here. There’s no need to make this discussion all about the Red Sox. It already is. It’s the other discussions that need to be brought to how they impact the Red Sox.
Our long national nightmare is about to end….
Nothing like a annoying commenter to bring a community together….
I’m a die hard Sox fan, and even I find him obnoxious and moronic. He literally adds no value to any conversation.
You guys are way worse than him.
You guys realize trolling one guy like this is like 7the circle of Online Community Hell sin, right?
Still like the Yankees in the East.
But the Red Sox get the most pub for their players, followed by the Indians. It helps to suck up to the NE baseball media. Has for going on for almost 100 years.
I’m trying to understand this but can’t quite sift through the absurdity. The “NEbaseball media” likes Cleveland but not New York…….?
Have you read the national medias comments about the Indians the past 2 years? They were picked to win the WS in 2015. I read abut how “talented” they are, yet they had to sign guys like Napoli and Uribe to start, and still don’t have a legitimate CF.
Mark Shapiro and his PR department schmoozed the national baseball media shamelessly. His father is an agent and .taught him how it works behind the scenes. You will note how many ex-Indians are on ESPN and MLB Network as “experts”. He helps get people jobs, in turn they say wonderful things abut the Indians. Teams like the Twins – who are better then the Indians both in the front office and on the field – just go about their work. Heck, the Indians got more ink after the 2014 season the the Royals – who had gone to the WS. Watch in he future; and watch how the Blue Jays will now get more ink as Shapiro will run down that organization, yet they will get the pub of a winner.
Who picked the Indians to win the WS last year…?
Sports illustrated
Sports Illustrated apparently – si.com/mlb/2015/03/27/si-mlb-preview-playoff-brack…
si.com/mlb/2015/03/27/si-mlb-preview-playoff-brack…
Red Sox still need a legitimate #2 starter. Bucholz gets hurt to much and porcello just isn’t the guy
You’re right. The Red Sox need a believable #2 starter, #3 starter, #4 starter and #5 starter.
Red Sox aren’t that good. Bradley can’t hit, their pitching is questionable after Price and Sandoval and Ramirez are underachievers. Some talent there but not enough to win the division.
Bradley can’t hit? Perhaps you missed last season
No I think he saw it pretty clearly. JBJ hitting is terrible. He hit .249 last year and is a career .213 hitter. Another typical Red Sox fan thinking their players are better than what they actually are.
Right, because we base hitter’s performances exclusively on batting average. Just ignore the 120 OPS+ and .498 slugging percentage. That doesn’t fit the narrative.
He homered twice against position players pitching. And quite literally only hit fastballs. His defense is good enough though that just getting on base enough and showing some pop is still an above average regular even if he puts up the 240/310/450 line i suspect he will.
So the other 8 hrs he had in the 74 games he played don’t count? He hit fine last season. The 120 OPS+ will attest to that. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee he’ll hit the same way this season, but that doesn’t invalidate his performance last year.
He stunk against right handed pitchers and raked against left handed pitchers. So what do the Red Sox do? Sign Chris Young to platoon with him. Doesn’t make much sense to me.
His defense is good enough? You must be kidding, Jackie is the best defensive outfielder in baseball period and that is why he gets whatever playing time he gets, His bat (good or bad) doesnt matter. Notice how he hit 9th for a good chunk of the season last year, its because they dont trust his bat but want his glove in there because its a difference maker.
Don’t get me wrong JBJ is a good outfielder but he’s nowhere close to the best defensive outfielder in baseball
Um sorry but he is, clearly you dont watch him and havent watched him, id start watching him Now.
There’s that kiermaier guy in Tampa that blows JBJ out of the water defensively
Oh come on. The stats and the eye test tells everyone but you that Jackie is the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Try watching him play,he makes plays that others dont even come close to making and he has the arm to match. Good luck with Keirmaier or any other outfielder.
Jackie (2014) 125g in OF, 1 error, 13 assists, .997 fielding %
Keirmaier (2014) 108g in OF, 6 errors, 5 assists, .976 fielding %
Jackie (2015) 73g in OF, 1 error, 4 assists, .994 fielding %
Keirmaier (2015) 149gin OF, 5 errors, 15 assists, .988 fielding %
Jackie is better period.
Which stats are those? You mean like Kiermaier’s 43 DRS/1,200 innings to JBJ’s 15? Kevin Pillar was also better than JBJ at 19.
Fielding percentage? Really…?
What stat would you prefer? Its obvious to me that you have Never seen Jackie play so its pointless to continue this conversation. You keep following the dead heads that watch sportscenter and think those are the best defenders.
Your homer is showing.
Ive been watching baseball for 45 years. Stop acting like a clown. I watched Willie Mays who was considered a great outfielder despite alot of errors, Jackie is just as good if not better. He reads the ball off the bat like NO other Outfielder and gets jumps on balls that most dont catch. He doesnt commit Errors either, unlike Keirmaier or anyone else mentioned.
Kiermaier had one of the best defensive seasons EVER. 42 DRS blew every single outfielder out of the water. Kiermaier is the best defensive outfielder in baseball and it isn’t even close
So its ok that he commits so many errors and doesnt get to balls that Jackie does, thats wonderful logic. You can keep you DRS, I’ll keep Jackie.
The numbers prove kiermaier is the better defender plain and simple. Pillar and Cain are better defenders too
Youre crazy. Until you watch Jackie on a daily basis I dont a fat f*ck what you have to say.
The 2 homers just show that ops may be misleading, this was during his monster 2 week period. Other than that he wasnt very good. The line i predicted for him is a league average hitter, and with his defense thats a 4 win player. Dont get upset that he isnt a star offensively.
I’m a Jays fan so I get to see JBJ and kiermaier a fair bit. The fact that you use the eye test and fielding % to back up your point pretty much makes your argument irrelevant
Keirmaier was the one that got to the most balls hence his numbers, add in the fact that he has one of the best arms in baseball (3 throws over 100 mph). His arm saves a lot of runs (throwing guys out without a catch and keeping players from taking the extra base) defense isnt just who gets to the most balls.
Youre eyes dont fail you but many stats can, thats why teams use a combination to judge talent. I happened to mention fielding % but that wasnt the only thing. Not sure why you entered this conversation if thats all you had to add, especially since you failed to mention who you thought was better.
I already listed Jackie’s assists, he has a great arm And as I keep saying, if you dont watch him on a daily basis you dont see what I see. But you keep believing want you want.
It isn’t even close though. Kiermaier is by far better than Bradley. He’s way better than pillar or Cain too.
So like the others on here you dont care about all the Errors, how wonderful. You people are unbelievable. Keep watching Sportscenter, the dumbest show on tv.
I’d imagine Errors factor into DRS. And still kiermaier is the best defensive CF in baseball by far. But go ahead and keep using fielding percentage to determine who the best defenders are
I NEVER said I only use fielding %, so stuff it. Ive been watching baseball for 45 years, seen it all and im semi-retired so I watch alot of baseball but you go ahead and believe what you want, your immaturity is showing through.
Take off your homer glasses please. Don’t get me wrong, JBJ is a very good defensive CF, but there is no way he is the best. Realistically he’s the 3rd best defensive CF in the AL east
Keep calling people names, that will get you far in this world. You can shut up at any time now.
I called you a homer. im not sure why you are getting mad at that. Stats show that Bradley isn’t the bet defensive CF. plain and simple man
You keep talking about “watching him on a daily basis”, but are you going to sit here and tell me you’ve watched Kiermaier on a daily basis too? Otherwise, how can you even pretend your argument is valid?
I didn’t miss last season. I saw him hit .249 and K in 33% of his ABs. Guy can’t hit. Deal.
2016 AL East Final Standings
1. Red Sox 102-60
2. Blue Jays 86-76
3. Rays 82-80
4. O’s 78-84
5. Yanks 69-93
No Wild Card from the division.
I really, REALLY hope you’re joking.
How exactly are the Sox gonna jump 24 games in the standings? Because they added 1 starter and 2 relievers? JBJ still can’t hit, Sandoval is still out of shape and Castillo can’t hit his weight.
The rotation after Price is completely awful.
I can’t see the Red Sox winning 102 games at all, but you’re making vast understatements. That one “starter” is David Price, and those two “relievers” are Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith. Those aren’t your typical additions. They’re also getting Hanley out of LF which will boost their overall defense. Not to mention that Sandoval has never been in shape and that didn’t make him God-awful until last year. Not saying a rebound is guaranteed, but it’s also not impossible. And if Castillo flops or Sandoval flops or whoever, Brock Holt and Travis Shaw are waiting on the bench.
“1 starter and 2 relievers” – who are worth about 15 WAR between them. This is the dumbest post ever. So guys who randomly underperformed have NO chance of regaining form ever again? Hanley & Pablo aren’t going to be as bad as they were this year, Boston improved heavily and went worst to first not so long ago.
Bradley had an .832 OPS last year and currently has a 1.027 OPS this spring, so it appears you don’t know what hitting is, because he is very good at it.
Rusney is 195 pounds, he hit higher than .195 last year.
Lastly, Buccholz, Rodriguez & Porcello aren’t “completely awful” I’d say “solid big league regulars” – what crack are you smoking on this post?
Nailed it.
David Price, Smith and KImbrel are solid pieces, but they aren’t going to account for 24 wins in the standings.
Half a season of Bradley isn’t gonna erase 2 previous seasons of awfulness in the big leagues. He averaged close to a K per game last year, and had an uncharacteristic walk rate which is due to decline.
Sandoval has declined each of the last 4 years. He didn’t have a “random down year.” He continued his trend.
For Castillo, its a figure of speech. He still hasn’t hit since being signed.
Buchholz either pitches half a season, or he pitches terribly. Its been one or the other every year since 2011.
E-Rod looks good, I’ll give ya that.
Porcello’s been a 5th starter every year of his career except 2014.
None of the Red Sox starters are solid besides Price. Rodriguez could be good for them once he comes back from injury but you need more than 1-2 starters and 1-2 relievers to compete and the Red Sox don’t have that.
Please remind me who was in the 2013 rotation when they won the World Series? Who was in the Royals’ rotation last year when they won the World Series?
JBJ true isn’t a dynamic hitter, and will never live up to the expectations that people had for him, however him hitting .250 while playing gold glove defense in center field is more than serviceable.
BUt one thing I can say is I hope that Farrell is speaking the truth that players like Sandoval, Ramirez, and Castillo will be on a short leash. He stuck with the veterans for far too long last year. Keeping Sandoval on his toes may be what he needs, but if he does continue to decline the Sox can plug Shaw / Travis / Holt into that position and provide. I’m intrigued really by what Shaw can provide this year I think he’s gonna have a sneaky good year.
The starting rotation isn’t great, and I believe Price is the bona fide Ace and will provide that for them. E Rod will continue to develop and be that number 2 starter that they need. Bucholz could be a number 2 type as well, but who knows what he will provide and how many starts he will make, he’s a huge question mark. Kelly, Porcello, Wright, and the others vying for the 4th and 5th spot are just that 4th and 5th starters at best.
I’m not concerned about the bull pen, They have a pretty solid 7-8-9 combo in Smith – Koji – Kimbrel, The pen isn’t full of scrubs.
And they played the last 3 months of the season at .550 ball, so there are signs that things could improve. Are they going to get to 100+ wins? I doubt that, But anything can happen, the AL East is up for grabs this year and really any of the teams can win and take the division.
You’re dreaming if you think Price and 2 relievers will be worth 15 WAR. Price would have to have a 9 WAR year for that to even be a realistic possibility, because two relievers aren’t likely to give you more than 6 WAR even with great years.
Dombroski is putting those 3 on a short leash not just on the field but also on the team. He has shown in the past he has no qualms about releasing or trading away(for a small loss if need be) under-preforming high priced players. John Henry has already said this, although its Farrell’s decision how much field time they get before they get the boot.
It’s not a strict one to one correlation. The Red Sox added Price, Kimbrel, Young, Smith. Those players are not equal to 24 wins ergo they cannot win 102 games in 2016. Are we assuming the players who played last season will have exactly the same stats they had then? Would it be wrong to expect there will be some variance there? Don’t get me wrong, I don’t expect the Red Sox will win 102 games. I don’t expect any team will win that many. You’d have to have an incredibly lucky year where pretty much everyone stayed healthy to win that many. But adding players is equal to adding a certain amount of wins isn’t a game we should play either. Adding Uehara, Napoli and Victorino didn’t give them 28 more wins between 2012 and 2013. Those 28 wins were an entire team effort. There were many players that year that had extraordinary seasons. It’s not something that can be predicted. They have a better team than they did at the beginning of last season. Just how much better depends on how the players perform. Not on misusing the WAR statistic.
FanGraphs Depth Charts project David Price, Craig Kimbrel and Carson Smith combining for 7..4 WAR:
fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&t…
If you add up Price, Smith, and Kimbrel’s best seasons it’s still only 11.8 fWAR. Before going off about how someone has made “the dumbest post ever”, perhaps you should have some idea what you’re talking about.
2013 playoff rotation was Lester, Buchholz, Lackey and Peavy. That was actually a pretty decent rotation. The Royals were a different story but with the bullpen they had they could afford to send out a bunch of #3/4 starters. They did have Cueto but he pitched more like a #3 than norm Cueto when he joined them. I don’t understand the comparison of the 2013 rotation to this years. 2013 was a decent rotation. Dempster and Doubront were the backend. They also had a terrific bullpen that year. Miller, Taz, Bailey, Koji, and Breslow all had a decent or better year. The rotation this year is questionable after Price. I think his presence alone will help the rotation immensely though. Something similar to Maddux when he was with the Cubs in the early 90’s. Pitchers like Bielecki, Mullholland and Morgan all seemed to pitch much better having a stabilizing anchor like Maddux. Price is one of a handful of pitchers who you expect to pick up a definite win when they are on the mound. That alone will give the rotation a bit of swagger. Something the Sox haven’t had since they traded Lester. Hopefully, he can teach Kelly how to get some movement on his fastball. The Sox should study what the Yankees did with Eovaldi and mimic it with Kelly. Imo Porcello was trying too hard to earn his contract last year and got into a rut early. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to something closer to his 2014 self. Like I said lots of questions and ifs but something tells me that the Sox rotation this year is going to gel under Price’s leadership and challenge Tampa for the best in the AL East. If that happens and with their bullpen upgrades they are going to be tough to beat in the playoffs. Especially since, we all know DD loves to trade prospects for win now talent and the Sox farm is deep enough where he can pick up any player made available. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see another TOR pitcher (one of the Mets perhaps) on the Sox at the deadline if this rotation falters. I apologize for yet another one of my beer induced rants. I should install a breathalyzer on my laptop.
Lester and Lackey,not exactly slouches, so whats your point?
It’s obvious, isn’t it? Kimbrel’s going to have a 12 WAR, 0.01 ERA, and about 70 saves. Price will also have a 12 WAR, a 1.00 ERA, and a 33-0 record.
I’m a Sox fan too, and I also see the Sox taking the division, but there’s no way they are going to win 102 games and there’s very little chance that the Jays miss both Wild Card spots. Also, the Yankees aren’t going to be that bad, they never are.
I’m more like:
1. Red Sox 90-72
2. Blue Jays 87-75
3. Rays 83-79
4. Yankees 81-81
5. Orioles 75-87
I would you’re prettt close to dead on. The only change I would make would be to switch rhe Yankees with the Rays.
Stupid cell phone. It’s supposed to say I think you’re pretty close to dead on.
I find this post profoundly upsetting. Only 102 wins? Maybe, if the Red Sox bring up half their single A team and rest all their regulars on September 1. Even that might not hold them back. I expect some of their opponents will simply faint once the National Anthem is played.
Not wise to pick on the Sox Single A team. It was the most prospect heavy in all the minor leagues last year with talent..
Had *5* current BA top 50 prospects in fact, though one is now with the Pad’s (Javy Guerra).
Now, that team could possibly have beaten a AAA league team through the last 30 days with talent…
Jest on Yanks fan…
So what you’re saying is the Red Sox will have the most wins in all of baseball? LOL. Try maybe around the 75-80 win range for them.
Well, that being said, I’d wager that the Sox single A team would likely destroy the Rays as well….especially considering that prospects are highly unlikely to bust.
That’s just silly. this is like picking a college football team against an NFL team.
If Porcello, Kelly, Buccholz & Rodriguez all have ERA’s under 4.00 I’d say Boston will definitely come close to 100 wins. Great lineup and bullpen, lots of interesting talent in the minors too, so the depth is there.
None of this is true. You just sound like another Red Sox fan who thinks you have the best players in baseball.
That’s a very big If
Haha porcello has only had an era under 4 twice in 7 years and once was 3.96. Joe Kelly has never thrown 135 innings in a season and last year his era was almost 5. Which bucholtz is coming this year the hurt one or the Awful one? Or both. Rodriguez has potential to be pretty good but is already hurt. So yeah pretty big if. I could say the same about Ubaldo Tillman Gonzalez and gallardo doing the same and the Orioles winning 100 games. Buy I’m not into making ridiculous Comments. It still isn’t as dumb as you saying other people are worse than bigpapi4ever and his comments. In fact combing that with your big IF comment, I think it makes you more foolish than him.
There is no way Porsucko pitches under a 4 era.
Lol, and such an easy division too. I’m thinking more like 120-125 wins
Is this an actual prediction or did you mean to start this with “I hope these are the final standings.”
Yankees 69-93, that’s even more UNrealistic as the Red Sux winning over 100
Toronto 89-73
New York 87-75
Baltimore 84-78
Tampa Bay 79-83
Boston 77-85
Red Sox have questionable 2-5 starters, little speed, little power and huge question marks in Hanley and Panda (not to mention Castillo). I may be generous giving them 77 wins.
Youre smoking something pretty strong if you think the Sox are gonna win 102 games, hahaha, have you met the Manager? Have we acquired a #2 Starter while also getting rid of Porcello? Has Buchholz taken some miracle drug to keep him healthy and affective all year? C’mon, be realistic
Someone’s been drinkin’
LOL at 102 wins.
Do you know how statistically difficult it is to get over 100? Only 3 teams since 2005 have done it.
Its actually 5 (3 NL 2 AL) since 2005, but that’s a misnomer, as there were 16 100-win teams from 1995 2005. It’s not statistically difficult, it’s too random to label.
In todays day and age, its statistically difficult due to the competitive balance.
Outside the Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Reds, Rockies and Padres, there isn’t a team in baseball that would really shock anyone if they made the playoffs.
You are correct, there have been 5 if you include 2005. Don’t know why I could only remember 3.
Forget about how many teams won 100 or more games during the Steriod Era, stick with teams from 2004 til today (7).
“He needs to improve against good pitching” – lol, that media never stops…
You never hear how they have to improve against bad pitching.
I give it 3 months before the questions and issues pile up and Farrell is dismissed. He’s got one foot out the door already. Everything he says doesn’t make sense and then he changes his mind and says something else. I sensed some players don’t care for him. Sandoval and Hanley will remain issues, they don’t have confidence in Castillo I’m assuming since they signed Chris Young. The bullpen additions were nice but, if the Jays launch balls over the monster like they did all year last year, well, a good bullpen isn’t much good without a lead. Price was a nice addition, but, if he struggles at all the signed him to a monster overpay deal and if he gets off to a bad start it could steamroll. Ortiz is 40.
Anyways I’m a jays fan so obviously I hope the Red Sox suck again this year. But I’m not mean enough to wish another 86 year drought on the Bosox fans lol
Chris young was essentially signed to platoon with bradley (betts in center vs lefties, castillo in rf). Shaw is insurance if either hanley or panda struggle (one of them is a heavy favorite to bounce back). Holt is super utility and injury insurance. He will most likely get starts at 4 spots. Moncada could possibly replace castillo if he stinks and moncada keeps hitting. Struggling for price is still an above average pitcher. Every year someone lists ortiz age as a reason to expect failure. Its his last year, i think if anything you will see him more balls to the wall than ever.
They will NOT rush Moncada. We wont see him in a Boston uniform for a couple of more years at the earliest.
Yankees won over 100 games in 2009 and won the World Series, yet no other team who won over 100 games won the world series after they did it, look the al east is going to be up for grabs for anyone like the last 2 years. The Orioles and blue jays are very similar to each other, big offense but no starting pitching..I mean this division is seriously up for grabs for anyone.
Agreed …Tiger_diesel92
I’m hoping that the SPing gets better. I have very high hopes for Erod. I also I really believe that Porcello will better if he can just be a solid #3 that would be great. A mid to high 3ish Era should be manageable with better deffense in the OF. Hanley has looked great defensively. Our OF deffense is fantastic. Kelly is a wild card. The kid could be fantastic or he could suck. But then there is Owens and Jonson. Owens I think really should be traded while his stock is high. Johnson for some reason I have very high hopes. He could be incredible.
Offense is gonna hit. Hanley and Pedey should be back to themselves. XB should get better. Betts is a beast. Swihart should get better. Hopefully Young builds off last year. Castillo is a 4th OF and I would be suprised to see Shaw get 250/300 at bats from LF. Which would be great cause I see him blasting 30/40 HRs and 50/60 doubles if we can ever get him 500/550 ab. Pablo is my only concern on offense and deffense.
Our bullpen is lights out.
And we if we are in it at the trade deadline they can always go get rotation help then.
102 wins probably not. 90/95 reasonable. 85/90 I’d say at least
102 wins? Lololol. More like 102 × 2 = Bradley’s avg.
Bradley’s average last year was .249 and his OPS was .832. So I tend to see your diss as unrealistic as the Sox getting 1o2 wins.
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Im sorry but that last paragraph is just false. Joe Kelly was already penciled in to make the Sox rotation and ERod being hurt doesnt change anything. Also, the Sox wouldnt need to acquire a pitcher with ERod’s injury because its a short term injury and they have a ton of depth. Steven Wright is expected to temporarily pitch in ERod’s absence, then likely go to the pen after ERod returns.