The Braves entered the season amid a full rebuild, so it’s hardly a surprise that they’ve shown a willingness to ship away veterans during their National League-worst 16-37 start. Two months into the season, Atlanta has already moved a pair of right-handers, starter Jhoulys Chacin and reliever Jason Grilli, for younger players. The club is understandably less eager to trade its premier major league asset, fellow righty Julio Teheran, as general manager John Coppolella has stated multiple times since last weekend.
On the possibility of dealing the 25-year-old Teheran, Coppolella told FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, “The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran.”
Coppollela then informed Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball that he expects Teheran to remain with the Braves for “a long time.”
Teheran is indeed slated to stay in Atlanta for the foreseeable future, having agreed to a pact in 2014 that could keep him there through the 2020 season. That team-friendly contract is undoubtedly a significant part of Teheran’s allure to the Braves and the rest of the league. Teheran’s run prevention (3.37 ERA in 701 2/3 innings) and durability (three straight 30-start seasons) only add to his appeal. Skeptics would point to his less shiny ERA estimators (3.88 FIP, 3.94 xFIP and 3.86 SIERA), mediocre 2015 campaign, this year’s velocity drop and the fact that he has been prone to hard contact as reasons for concern, however.
From a contractual standpoint, Teheran is currently on a relatively meager $3.3MM salary and has a chance to rake in another $37.3MM, including a $12MM club option, over the final four years of his deal. Teheran, therefore, doesn’t need to be particularly dominant to live up to the contract. Thanks to his strong start this season (68 1/3 innings with a 2.77 ERA, 8.17 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), FanGraphs already values Teheran’s 2016 contributions at $8.4MM. And thanks to both Teheran’s first two months and the weak-looking class of upcoming free agent starters, now might be an opportune time for the Braves to at least consider moving him.
In order for the Braves to actually sell Teheran, Coppolella told Rosenthal he would need a major league hitter of comparable age and quality in return. The problem, if you want to call it that, is such a trade could be a pipe dream for Atlanta. For one, pitchers are more susceptible to injuries than position players, so teams might not be willing to take the risk. Secondly, contending clubs with their eyes on Teheran would be creating a hole just to patch another if they were to swap a hitter for him.
The Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers and Marlins are among playoff hopefuls who could explore the summer market for starters, and their similar-to-Teheran position players include third baseman Travis Shaw, outfielder Yasiel Puig, third bagger Nick Castellanos and center fielder Marcell Ozuna. It’s doubtful, however, that any of them will be on the move.
Shaw has done nothing but produce since debuting in the majors last season, and he appears primed to man the hot corner in Boston until at least the beginning of the distant Rafael Devers era. Puig has unexpectedly performed like merely an average player since last season, but the Dodgers still seem to need him more than they need another starter. Castellanos has been one of the majors’ top hitters this year, and the Tigers don’t have a replacement for him at the big league level – nor do they have imminent help coming from their farm system. Ozuna has not only been the Marlins’ most valuable outfielder this year (no small feat with Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich alongside him), but he’s also their best defensive option in center.
The Red Sox were willing to move 24-year-old catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart for a No. 2-type starter as of last month, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported, but Swihart alone isn’t definitively worth Teheran. The Braves were at least enamored of Cubs outfielder Jorge Soler in the past, Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wrote in October, though Chicago subsequently added John Lackey in free agency. With Lackey complementing Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel, the Cubs have arguably the most well-rounded rotation in the league from one to five (though they’re still reportedly seeking depth). Further, they probably aren’t keen on the idea of parting with outfield depth in the wake of Kyle Schwarber’s season-ending injury. There’s also the fact that Soler has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene in 2014 with a fantastic 24-game showing.
With no clear fit mentioned above, it’s fair to wonder what the prospect cutoff is for the John Hart- and Coppolella-led Braves. Would the team really scoff at sending Teheran to, say, the pitching-needy Rangers in a package for one of their excellent 22-year-old prospects, power-hitting, cannon-armed third baseman Joey Gallo or outfielder Lewis Brinson? The Pirates also have rotation issues — granted, they have in-house reinforcements on the way in Jameson Taillon, Tyler Glasnow and perhaps Chad Kuhl — and their stellar outfield trio of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco looks primed to block the big league path of 21-year-old Austin Meadows. Even if the Braves were receptive to sending away Teheran in a package for any of those players, there’s obviously no guarantee the youngsters’ current organizations would be open to it. All three entered the season among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects, after all (Gallo 10th, Brinson 16th and Meadows 22nd), to cite one reputable outlet’s list.
If it truly takes an overwhelming haul for Atlanta to deal Teheran, then it’s fair to expect he won’t follow Shelby Miller out of town. The Diamondbacks drew almost universal criticism from the moment they traded Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair for Miller during the winter, and that deal has so far blown up in Arizona’s face. The Braves are highly unlikely to net a comparable package for Teheran – nor will it be easy to land an accomplished, in-his-prime big league hitter in return – so he’s a good bet to continue in Atlanta if Coppolella’s public statements are how he actually feels. Of course, given Teheran’s age, performance and contract, the Braves’ backs aren’t against the wall in this case. Barring injury, simply keeping him wouldn’t qualify as a disastrous decision, and Coppolella appears content to do just that.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Teheran for Swi, Ball, Owens
No way Atlanta would take that. All three of them have pretty significant question marks. If the Sox could get Teheran for that meager of a haul, I’d like them to do it two days ago.
That would never in a million years happen. Throw in Benintendi and we might have a negotiation…
Way too little.of compensation. Had boston kept margot guerrera allen instead of dealing them to land kimbrel it would be a much better package. But to land Teheran
Sam Travis, Deven Marrero, Blake Swihart, Brian Johnson get the discussion started. Atlanta doesn’t have to trade him as hes under contract through 2020. 4 more seasons.
But if Teheran is too much try asking the padres about Pomeranz. Not as lengthy of a track record, but so far so good this season and could be had for about 1/2 3/4 the cost of teheran.
Travis is out for the year, marrero is a 25 year old all glove ss and you think that’s better than the initial package? The initial package is about what he is worth, feel free to add a rookie ball arm. Swihart can catch he just isn’t a catcher for a world series contender right now. Johnson and Owens are basically the same so take you choice but I think ball is the real get.
Yoi wanna include owens and ball in there thats fine. I said gets the discussion started. Not the entire package. Course there would be others. Thats pretty much all boston has to offer thats attractive that theyd be willong to part with. Personally i think the cubs should go all in and go after a sonny gray teheran type arm though itll cost prospects. I dont think boston has enough to trade for teheran. 2020 for a 2-3 cheap durable arm. Itll take a lot.
Sonny Gray is hurt, and Julio Teheran would be the 6th best pitcher in the cubs rotation.
Teheran would be the 6th best starter on the cubs, why downgrade?
Boston doesn’t have enough for Julio? That’s funny stuff.
That’s what I was thinking… When did Teheran turn into Kershaw
Because I’m assuming Major League Baseball will continue to exist beyond 2016-2017.
Teheran to the white sox for ANY 3 players in the organization, but you have to take Williams and Ventura.
So you’d be okay with a Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Todd Frazier for Julio Teheran deal as long as the Braves take Williams and Ventura too. I think they would be okay with that deal.
Sox will NOT win with these two idiots running things. Losing seasons the last four years and NO positional player development in many years.
Throw Don arrogant ass Cooper in there. He has more of a voice than Ventura and Rick Hahn, even!!
Hahaha. I agree. What bunch of failures. Reinsdorf must be dead because I don’t believe he’d put up with this for so long.
The White Sox could have rebuilt completely by trading Sale and Quintana. But instead, they tried to replicate 2005 with another Franken-team in hopes of a random collection of players having career seasons.
Teheran seems like the perfect fit for the Giants and the type of player they value and with Peavy and Cain being hit or miss he’d fill a big need. It would also be a good fit for Teheran in that park and not having to be the #1 or even #2 guy. I don’t know enough about the Giants prospects to know if they would be able to offer as much as other teams, it just seems like a perfect fit for both sides.
The Giants don’t have much in the farm system regarding near ready major league hitting prospects. Arroyo might be the most ready and personally I don’t see him (and his question marks) as being an appealing fit for the braves.
If the Giants didn’t have so many injuries happen and Belt wasnt off to such a tear I wonder if they would have ever considered a Belt for Teheran deal.
Probably not considering they already have Freeman at first.
Captain obvious? Belt has played LF and I imagine has no trade clause any way.
He has played left and was a terrible fielder. Also with his injury history I doubt you want him running around out there.
Only he wasn’t and the Giants have one of the most difficult OF’s in all of baseball to play.
I strongly doubt the Gisnts ever considered any major Belt trades, pre-contract extensions.
Most of the ideas seemed to come from Giants fans who had irrational dislike for Belt.
if he played a full year in LF you can expect -30 DRS
The only year he played much left was 2011 and last year. In 2011 he was worth -8 runs defensively over 231 innings. Last year he was worth -2 runs over 96.1 innings. If he played a full season in left he would’ve been worth -19 runs (-42 in 2011). That sounds like a bad defender to me.
Where are you getting these made up stats? in 355 career innings in LF hes been -2 in DRS That is pretty good for someone who has never spent a full spring working on the position.
Standard fielding stats on baseball reference. They will be surprised to learn that their stats are made up.
Fangraphs doesn’t seem to have the stat, the only thing he was -8 in is uzr 150 for 2015 and even that has him as -3.4 overall
Why would a team like the braves who isn’t contending trade a pitcher for an older player who plays a position that is filled by the only major league bat they currently play every day? His bat isn’t good enough to move him to a position that he’s sub par at defensively.
Because position players have longer longevity duh. Belt has a higher career OPS+ than Freeman so I don’t know how you figure his bat isn’t good enough.
The Giants simply are not a match with the Braves. And pretty much every team could fit Teheran in their rotation, so its odd you’d single out SF as a landing spot when they have nothing the Braves would want in terms of young stars/prospects.
Probably because I want to see him succeed and going to the AL especially the AL east would probably ruin his career he already is prone to HR’s.
Teheran and markakis for judge and bmac- get it done
You’re going to have to pay more than that for Teheran unless Atlanta is desperate to get rid if Markakis’ contract(I doubt)
Judge just isn’t too exciting of a prospect. Probably not even top 100, now.
Judge’s stock has went down slightly as he has really struggled in AAA, although he is still interesting. As much as I’m a fan of Brian McCann, I see no logical desire for the braves to be interested in dealing for him.
It’s logical enough to work if no other GM wants to take a “Dave” on their organization. Teheran is cheap/risky-bmac is a controllable top ten mlb catcher. There aren’t any obtainable exciting blue chip catching prospects… The Yankees have the best and he is mlb ready. Bmac will decline but his leadership is worth the money. If judge wasn’t struggling he wouldn’t be in the conversation. Bmac and judge instantly improve our historically bad offense
Judge unfortunately has been in a slump since early May (after a great April) , and I don’t see why the Braves would want McCann back, unless the Yankees ate nearly all his salary
You realize including Markakis in any deal erases over half of Teheran value? Teheran offers 40-50 mil surplus if you think he is a 3 war pitcher. That’s one top 20 prospect and change. If you include Markakis you don’t even get a top 100 guy.
But the Braves aren’t run by Dave Stewart.
Sox surely have the prospects to get Teheran, but Atlanta would be wise to request a ton of them. Swihart and Shaw could maybe be packaged with a pitching prospect and a blue-chip fielder prospect to get the deal done, maybe, but that’s already steep. We really need pitching from somewhere though x_x
Shaw, Swihart AND another pitcher AND a another blue chip. is that all? maybe Bogaerts and Betts too?
I honestly don’t think Shaw and Swihart would happen.
Shaw, Benintendi, Raudes, and Ysla seems more like a Braves type request any way.
I think they would take that deal.
They aren’t trading shaw, that defeats the purpose of trading for pitching because you are still taking away an above average player,
Benintendi is a deal breaker Dombrowski isn’t willing to include him in any deal.
Ok. So here’s the thing. When you have amazing offensive numbers and horrid pitching depth, you take from the area of power and add to the area of weakness. If the Red Sox’ FO wants to win, they would take that deal.
If you take away offense to add pitching you’re just going to end up in the same place
I suspect the Braves would not trade Julio Teheran straight up for the hyped but unproven Andrew Benintendi.
Look at dombrowski’s track record .. He would trade ‘any’ prospect in a heartbeat.
I am just surprised he didn’t anticipate how the starting pitching market would evolve more this winter .. If he wants to make a serious WS run (vs playoff or wild card), he has to do something about his starters and there are not many options available (for any team)
Bogaerts and Betts are each, individually, more valuable than Teheran, so I don’t think any sensible GM would go there. 😛 But that package I put forward is probably what the Braves would need to be inclined to move him.
Swihart has proven himself so far to be a very poor defensive catcher. Now the Red Sox have even transitioning him to left field. So you are saying that the braves would be interested in a poor hitting utility guy?
The braves don’t NEED to trade Teheran so I’d expect it will take an overpayment by any team looking to acquire him.
I feel like I’m the only Red Sox fan who doesn’t think Swihart is the second coming.
I don’t see him having any value, and I don’t get the hype about his “bat” as I have yet to see anything I’m impressed with.
This gets so old..
Did u and everyone else that slamis his catching ever figure out that the reason he was moved to LF anyway was because they got back the ORIGANL staring catcher, who happens to be one of the best defensive catcher’s in the game (Christian Vazquez), that also is one of the HARDEST to steal on as well?
Swihart wasn’t even supposed to be in the bigs anyway when he was called up last seaon, only both catchers got badly hurt.. Broken hand by Hannigan, TJ for Vazquez..
Swihart didn’t start catching until his junior year of HS, then was drafted as a senior.. Not like he’s been catching that long.. 1st round pick in 2011 and getting better. STILL not had a complete year at AAA as a catcher and they (right now) need a LF, so they gave him some reps there to get his bat into the MLB lineup quickly, which he’s doing fair at… ONLY reason he isn’t catching at Pawtucket..
Not many teams with 2 catchers the quality of Vazquez and Swihart, much less 1. If Atlanta had either.. They’d be catching!
You do realize last season in only 688.0 innings caught that Swihart was last in the majors with -9 defensive runs saved? AJ Pierzynski was next worst with -8 DRS in 909.2 innings and no one else was below -6 DRS. I’m sorry the defensive metrics don’t back up that he is a good defensive catcher, they show he was terrible last year.
With Cutch’s contract coming up shortly, and the chances of him being resigned at another cheap deal beyond unlikely, I dont see the Pirates entertaining any Meadows offers
I tend to agree but If it wasn’t for Polanco, Marte and Cutch we would be seeing Meadows sometime this year or next and the Pirates have a handful over other Outfielders working their way up projected to be everyday players by the time cutch will probably be leaving. (Garcia, Bell, Rameriez, Frazier, etc…)
That said I think meadows will be more valuable than Teheran even with his cheap contract. Unless the braves are are eating much of his future contract any such deal is off the table in my books… Of course Meadows could possibly be a bust…and i’m over valuing a prospect 😉
But on that noted as well Bell and Hanson could be made available as well as they’re in a similar boat.
“The Red Sox were willing to move 24-year-old catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart for a No. 2-type starter as of last month, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported”
Who wouldn’t trade a mediocre defender with an 88 OPS+ for a #2 starter?
Great write up Connor. Not just from Braves perspective, but angles from possible spots seems dead on.
As a Braves fan, I love where Atlanta sits with Teheran. They do not need to unload him, his contract is perfect for the team. But also, if they were to trade him, they will be rewarded handsomely. Really a win-win for the team. I think with where the team sits with “prospects” such as Blair right now, hanging onto Teheran may be best course, since Blair was the next high prospect to come in and has not quite found his spot yet.
I like what the FO has done so far in the rebuild. Granted the Olivera trade was not the best, but the Swanson trade balanced that out in my opinion. Will be interesting to see how the next 7-8 weeks go for the team.
That Swanson-Miller trade will go down as a franchise-changer, similar to the one they gifted the Rangers with on the Teixeira deal. Braves are going to be contenders in a hurry – which is why trading Teheran for nothing less than a shocking bundle (aka another Swanson-esque haul) will not happen.
I don’t know about a hurry but they are on their way – I would think like 2 years out or so
Agreed to both Just Another Fan and Wolf Chan. I doubt he is moved for anything less than absolutely needed. He is a great asset; cheap, controllable, and efficient. I think next year they could finish 3rd in the East IF call ups are what we hope and Freeman is near the quality he is going to be paid.
Almost started doing the potential lineup, but know how that kickstarts too much trash talk.
Would like to see Flowers get 1st on depth chart behind the dish and bring in a David Ross type back up for him to spell a day a week.
Would like to see Frenchy and Beckham back, other than that, if contract expires after this year, let them go. I think we have a great roster of guys Arbitration eligible or pre, stick with them and bring in a valuable vet, hopefully for the rotation.
I’m just curious how you see them being better than the Nats, Mets, Marlins, and even Phillies. I think they will be lucky to finish 4th ahead of Philly.
Depends, are you curious or just want to start another round of idiotic back and forth teenage crap?
I guess I should have said or and not and.
I’m curious what sort of logic leads one to believe that the worst team in baseball is going to leap from 2 teams that are more talented than them.
Just see progress in the team. Philly is regressing back towards where most thought they would go. The teams rebuild is behind, but going along the path they expected. Young pitchers are improving and should only get better with experience. After Bourn, Swisher, and Aybar are officially off the books, team could look for an established rotation piece and possibly a decent bat. And still hopeful at least one prospect will be ready come ST to make the jump.
Those things can also be said for the Phillies though. Who also have JP crawford close to MLB ready. And the marlins are doing what they’re doing with an unimpressive stanton. I fully agree that the phillies were playing over their heads and are coming back to earth I just don’t see any scenario where it is likely that the braves out perform the marlins or phillies next year simply because they have less talent than those two teams.
Fair assumptions on your part, I will agree to disagree.
I agree with you 100 percent, Albies and Swanson plus the young pitching is how we move up, doesn’t take rocket scientist
Totally agree on Flowers. I believe he deserves to be the starter. Hopefully he can get some good chemistry with the young guys and really help them out
Flowers reminds me of David Ross a great back up who would get exposed playing everyday. I just want him catching all of Julio’s starts the rest of this year.
Olereb, no we are not winning division next year, but I think we will see great progress second half of this season on. Yeah Raykraft, I think he is due. Everyone gets exposed Steelerbrave, but that is also how you grow. Bring in someone to play once a week. Flowers plays 2/3 the season, not like he has only played 10-14 games. His stats line up with Wieters, who you have been itching for after Cervilli.
The Braves should just wait until the offseason when the FA pitching market will be just as barren. More teams will be in the mix and then I could forsee them landing the major league bat they want in return. It also gives them more time to assess the rookies they’ve got and figure out what a Teheran-less rotation in 2017 will look like.
I disagree. Get desperately close teams World Series hungry at the deadline and got a haul in return. Offseason trades are usually more methodical. Excluding the Swanson deal.
That may be true in an average offseason, but this coming offseason is anything but with the mediocre offerings in free agency. You’ll always have teams that want to upgrade pitching in the offseason so those with higher value trade bait pitchers will be able to squeeze teams more than usual.
Fair enough but I would still prefer the deadline.
At the deadline is the best time to maximize value, but this next FA class is abnormally weak. There will probably be another 2-3 guys who hit/play above their avg totals and get more, but I think the trade market will be needed for teams to significantly improve.
Atlanta sends Teheran to the Angels for CJ Cron. Cron’s power would be a major upgrade for the Braves. Angels need pitching. Win-Win for all.
Hot Damn I need to be a GM or something!
Unless you want to be known as the worst GM of all-time, no you don’t.
Probably just an Angels fan who is pissed at the Braves because he has no farm system and the Altanta’s the reason why. Lol. Regression ain’t coming after a 26 year old. He has stated that his velocity is down for a reason: control. His numbers are through the roof better so stop trying belittle a great pitcher by saying his velocity is down by 1.2 MPH. And stop with these advanced stats that never actually mean anything and just enjoy watching the game. Please. P.S. Not a Braves fan.
S**t not meant for u. Clicked on the wrong one. This apps a little glitchy. Meant for maxmadsen and theo2016.
I’m not the Braves GM, I’m the Angels GM, so I look good.
They actually are quite predictive. Is he supposed to say he just can’t throw as hard anymore? He had lower walk rates in both 2013 and 2014 with a harder fastball. The fact that opponents are hitting flyballs harder off him than any other pitcher is a sign he will have a homer spike or at the very least allow more slugging which will create more runs. People can buy in to a 10 game sample all they want but any team acquiring him is going to treat him like a number 3 at best moving forward. The most attractive part about him is his contract.
Theo the GM has spoken lol you clowns need to work in the front office somewhere you guys make it sound so convincing. Watch the games once in awhile.
They will need more than Cron. Come on now.
The only chance the Angels have of landing Teheran is if they trade Mike Trout to Atlanta. The Braves would then have to kick in everything they got in the Miller Trade and maybe more.
Nah, we need a player that can actually hit the ball.
Teheran is set to be paid $12M in 2020. If he’s even a backend guy by then, that’s still a pretty good bargain in that year. It’s just not worth it from the Braves perspective to trade him for anything less than a top 20 prospect and additional young stars.
These kinds of rumors are almost always started by either the Boston or New York media, and need to be treated as just a load of hot air. There’s literally no reason for the Braves to trade a pretty-good young rotation regular for nothing. Same with the A’s and Sonny Gray. Both of them are more than likely going to be on their current teams 3 years from now.
xFIP of 4.09, average fastball velocity down 1.2 MPH, BABIP against at a career low. Regression is coming. He’s still probably a solid number 3/4 on a contending team, but I would not give up any elite top prospects for him. His best asset is dependability and a very team-friendly contract over the next 3 or 4 and a half seasons. Some team will be desperate enough to give them a good haul if they don’t wait too long..
His K rate is up and BB rate is down from last season, he’s better than what you make him out to be, but I agree, he won’t be moved unless Dave Stewart wants to keep on making the Braves better by letting them wash him in trades.
He has the lowest swinging strike percentage of his career and has allowed the highest exit velocity on flyballs of all pitchers, he is primed for regression
The pirates are a perfect fit. Trade Meadows and a lesser tier pitching prospect than Taillon or Glasnow and Atlanta will be tempted.
I understand Cutch may not be here that much longer but holding onto prospects who aren’t going to help the team during Cutch’s window is silly. They need to go for it and get out of the wild card round.
A rotation of Cole, Liriano, Teheran, Taillon and Niese would be a nice upgrade and Nicasio can just fire gas from the pen.
Agreed. This is just the type of player and contract that fits perfectly with the Pirates. Let’s not forget that Liriano is not getting any younger. Having Cole, Glasnow, Taillon and Teheran would be a pretty good 1-4. They could also flip Locke for specs as well.
Meadows and a pitching prospect not named Glasnow or Taillon isn’t gonna get Teheran. You are talking 4 years of a young cost controlled number 1-2 starter for a prospect that the Pirates can afford to trade because he is blocked and a pitching prospect that is their 3rd highest rated pitching prospect. That seems light to me.
Number 1-2 on a terrible braves team, perhaps.
The Pirates #3 pitching prospect is better than most of Atlanta’s current rotation. Meadows alone should (but won’t) be enough to get that deal done–younger, more control, premium position.
Marlins could be a nice fit. As an added bonus, Teheran is one of the best players to come out of Colombia ever and the Miami area has a large Colombian community. The addition could really put the Marlins over the top.
I was thinking marlins, like throw in bour + prospects or Ozuna since they were interested in seeing if they could get something for him in the offseason last year- I was also thinking that the cubs could make sense swapping schwarber (once he is off the DL) since he is good offensively but they still don’t really have a good place to put him.
Please go look at Ozuna’s stats for the season and tell me why they’d give him up now? He’s their best position player right now and has been all season.
Because the Braves desperate need a right handed outfielder and would probably do a one-for-one trade for a more established player that is more valuable to the Marlins right now. Loria also doesn’t seem to be a big fan of Marcell.
Plus, do you really think the fish will reach the playoffs with Tom Koehler in their rotation?
They could if he gets to face the Braves every 5 days lol 😛
Honestly though I don’t see the fish trading Ozuna with Yelich on the shelf and Stanton not producing. Should one of those two make a comeback, then yeah Ozuna could go.
Ozuna >> Teheran. They will not trade him for Teheran. Adding Teheran while subtracting Ozuna wont result in a playoff birth for the marlins either.
Schwarber will be on the do all year and most likely the start of next. Marlins aren’t trading off mlb roster nor would braves likely deal to them.
Trading him in division would be yet another slap in the fans face. For a team that is already losing on purpose. It had better be a big overpay if hes staying in the NL east.
They aren’t losing on purpose…they just suck. There is a difference.
You must have the Braves confused with the Rockies, one team is less than 3 years removed from a division crown the other has never won a division crown ever.
No, they’re losing on purpose. You don’t give guys like Jeff Francoeur or Adonis Garcia a job if you’re trying to win. You don’t sign guys projecting to have value to short-term contracts and then trade them off three months later if you’re not trying to lose on purpose.
It is what it is, and I’m totally fine with that part. Now the system is stocked, the high value draft picks will begin to show up in a week, and they are set for one more big draft next year. Plus they’re going nuts in the international signing period a month from now.
The best part is that they’ll only have to be really bad for two years to accomplish all that, rather than a decade like the Rockies have done. And I live in Denver, so I know exactly how the Rockies strategy has gone.
Barely treading water for years and years, and they’re really not any farther along than the Braves are at this point. Farm systems are incredibly similar in terms of talent, but the Rockies haven’t had a winning season in the current decade while the Braves have a winning record and a couple playoff appearances.
-C
No contenders are trading anything off their rosters unless its a struggling player with big upside like puig or soler. The tigers make sense Daniel norris and Steven moya and some low level arm is fair value.
Cubs want depth but they aren’t moving anything off of the major league roster unless it’s for an ace. Otherwise they are content with dealing from the minors for a 2-3 and right now they don’t even need to do that. Cubs need to focus on a lefty reliever like Miller not on Teheran.
I think the Pirates are a good fit. But not just for Meadows. Hayes might be an option and Reese McGuire isn’t looking like he’s gonna be in the majors any time soon because of Cervelli’s extension. Meadows, Hayes and McGuire for Teheran.
Those three make complete sense; areas of need and all in top 100. That would be hard to turn down. Riley and Ruiz would then become chips in later trades IF Hayes worked out. Top 4 prospect at their respective positions, I would still call that a haul.
I think this could be a very good package for the braves and I could see the Pirates going for it too.
Ah no chance in hell that the Pirates would pay that price for an average #3-4 starter.
Meadows not available. Harold Ramirez or Alen Hanson yes.
Hayes also not available. Moroff or Frazier or even McGuire are potential fits though.
Then you return a higher upside arm to replace Teheran, so that would be an arm like Yuedy Garcia or Stephen Brault or a mlb arm like Locke formerly of the Braves.
Ramirez, McGuire, Garcia more possible as a deal.
Braves laugh at that, counter back with Vizcaino and Teheran for Meadows and Taillon.
Can you please explain why “Meadows is not available?”
It’s more like Teheran for Meadows + McGuire
nothing more, nothing less.
I hope coppy can pull off another Arizona type trade. Josh Bell and meadows would be nice
That’s very unlikely. Trades like that Miller trade happen about once a decade.
In terms of mlb ready controllable bats the Braves may target, Travis Shaw, JBJ, Swihart, Soler, Baez, Ozuna, Profar, Gallo all may be available.
Obviously, guys like Bryant, Russell, Betts, Seager, Bogaerts, Correa, Springer, ect are all far more valuable than Teheran.
If the Braves were thinking on close to mlb ready prospects, Benintendi, Brinson, Bregman, Judge all make some sense tbh.
Where’s steelerbrave with the Teheran to NYY trade for Sanchez and parts?
I don’t get all this Teheran love. He’s a #1/#2 on the Braves, but a #3/4 on every other team except for Minnesota. His peripherals aren’t that great. Good, but not great. He’s basically a younger Rich Hill.
The Braves are seriously overshooting the market if they expect another Shelby Miller-type haul for this guy.
The only love is from braves fans and people that need to fill a story quota. He’s been discussed consistently on fangraphs chats and all of the writers there peg him as a #3 starter and have stated that a return of even joey gallo would be too much.
That shelby miller trade was just dumb. There is no way to get around that fact. You’re absolutely correct that they are overshooting if they expect that for him.
The Bucs are in no way giving up Austin Meadows or even Josh Bell for Teheran. Huntington is a very savvy GM and if he ends up dealing a top prospect, it will be for someone like Jake Odorizzi. Otherwise, he just calls up two of the kids ready to break into the rotation and grabs a rental like Rich Hill, Doug Fister or Gio Gonzalez this year.
Overshooting with every right to. There is not one pitcher that is remotely available (without a huge haul) not named Rich Hill and Julio Teheran. Considering that Teheran is young, controllable for 4 more years, and is having a decent year (minus record), why would Coppy not ask for a lot.
Considering he already stated that he wouldn’t do it for prospects alone, it will take a MLB ready bat plus a prospect (maybe if it’s not Gallo) to get Teheran. I guarantee people will pay it also. It happens every year, and considering how thin the trade market and especially FA market is this winter, some GM who is nervous and/or anxious will bite the bullet.
Totally agree with you. The value is in his contract and age. Given what teams paid even the backend FA starters this offseason you might be looking anywhere from 50 to 100 mil difference in the money he’s owed vs a similar pitcher on the FA market. If you can put a $$$ on each prospect/player involved in a trade you can get an idea at the return the Braves might be seeking.
I do however think there is some posturing going on in regards to the major-league caliber return. Coppy would probably be more than happy with prospects as long as there is a major league ready piece in the bunch. And I don’t think Braves fans expect a Shelby Miller-type haul, those types of deals just don’t happen very often.
If you use the $/war that just happened it is no where near 100million dollars in excess value.
I’m taking into account that the Braves don’t trade him tomorrow. If he’s for real this year and continues to put up sub 3.00 ERA all the way up to the trade deadline then I’d think you could make an argument that that sort of player can land a $100+ mil contract if he were a FA.
Well, you’re completely missing what surplus value means. He’s signed for 40.6 over the next 5 years if his option is picked up. To be ” looking anywhere from 50 to 100 mil difference in the money he’s owed vs a similar pitcher on the FA market” you’d have to think a pitcher like Teheran would get a 5 year 140 million dollar contract.
Yeah, which is why I said ANYWHERE FROM 50 to 100 million. I have no idea if the FA contracts will take another crazy leap this offseason or not. Going off last year’s FA selection you can easily attach about 60 mil for 5/100. Anyway it’s not the point, the point is find another young pitcher out there with that much surplus value.
So you seriously think Teheran would get 28m per year for 5 years?
What do you mean by out there? Because there are a ton of pitchers with more surplus value.
Where are you getting 28 million from? I just said 5/100. 60 million surplus based off last years FA class. It’s not unrealistic to imagine. Mike Leake got $80 mil for 5 years. KC gave Ian Kennedy 70 mil for 5 years. I’d value Julio higher than both without hesitation.
You said that he has from 50-100 in surplus value. his contract +100 mil = 140. 140/5 = 28.
Sorry I based 50 off last seasons FA class and 100 was a rough (possibly exaggerated) estimate assuming that FA contracts take another massive leap this offseason with the weak FA class and new TV deals coming into play. It also assumes Julio is back to his 2013-14 self and doesn’t pull the Jekyll/Hyde crap he did last year.
His peripherals do not bode well for continuing at this pace.
Since his first full season in the majors, he’s been the 48th best starting pitcher by fWAR. So he’d be a #2, even by Fangraphs standards. He has consistently outperformed his peripherals and thus would be ranked a good deal higher by bWAR, probably top 25 or thereabouts.
When you pair that with his age and very friendly contract, as well as a dearth of available starting pitchers, his value is pretty great. Those sorts of players just aren’t available at the deadline this season.
It’s also important to note that this isn’t offseason trading – the trade deadline fetches much higher prices as teams are looking for those last pieces necessary to make a deep playoff run.
-C
Well said man. Braves have a strong asset for sure. Even based of straight stats and not saber metrics, which I can honestly say I am not well educated on, Julio projects in top 30, which puts him as a 2. Do he safely could be a 3 on most rotations.
I don’t think the Braves are expecting that type of haul, just setting the starting price at that for negotiation sake. I think even most true Braves fans know that he is a 3/4, not to say their are not homers who think he is the ace. Unfortunately for our young staff, he is the ace. But sub 3.5 ERA, 30 starts, and 200 innings a year is a good set of just the easy stats.
The problem is we’ve all seen this type of guy before. The inning eater, ok pitcher who is a #1 only because he’s on a horrible team. Jeremy Hellickson, Jeret Wright, Matt Garza, Wei-Yin Chen, Phil Hughes…
Unless Dave Stewart has a bunch of hidden prospects somewhere, no moronic GM is giving up a ton for Teheran. Period.
When you say a ton, do you mean many prospects or one very good prospect? If you mean the former, I agree, but disagree with the latter.
Who else is there to trade for? Hill/Hellickson/Hughes? Not one of those pitchers is close to Teheran in value ($ or talent). I’m not being a homer, just realistic.
Baseball is a business, and GM’s make crazy trades because they understand this and want to win if they feel they can. Boston, and Texas are most likely trade partners for Teheran, because they have what the Braves would want in return. SF and KC lack the young pieces (willing to give up) plus farm talent.
I know I will most likely get bashed for this, but will throw it out anyway. When James Shields was traded to the Royals, Royals received two top 30 prospects, Myers and Ordiozzi and added pieces going back and forth. Shields had more years under his belt, but at same time was 30 at the time of the trade and had less team control.
All depends on what the trading team desires and feels Julio will bring to their team.
Rays received not Royals, sorry.
Rich hill is more talented than Teheran.
Rays also sent Wade Davis and James Shield is significantly better than Teheran.
He’s also 36 years old whereas Julio is 25.
Which has exactly 0 to do with whether or not he is more talented.
He’s 34, and he wasnt at the time of the trade. He also had playoff experience and was even more of a workhorse.
Edit* Oh you thought I meant Shields, my bad.
Pretty sure he meant that Rich Hill is 36.
Good call on Davis, sure Braves can find a pitcher sporting a plus 4 era seemingly bound for the bullpen type arm to throw in.
My point was referencing where Shields was at statistically combined with his age.
This is a similar argument to what people say about Cueto. Some pitchers simply outperform peripherals. Teheran has outperformed what Cueto had done through this point in his career by a lot and is more durable at that.
Just because some pitcher has done something, doesn’t mean the other one will too. Trying to draw comparisons like this is just lazy. Cueto has better stuff than Teheran
A bunch of young hitters have been worse than Papi was. Are they all gonna turn out to be him too? Or how about Joey Bats? Maybe every struggling young pitcher will turn into Rich Hill too.
Or we could just keep Teheran and have a veteran pitcher to mentor these young pitching prospects rising through the system ( Newcomb, Allard, Sims, Jenkins). Trading Julio right now wouldn’t do anything positive for the Braves now or in the future. It hurts their record this season if they trade him and will hurt the development of the young guys if we have to put a rookie as our #1 next year.
Anything but their record this year!
Braves fans are quickly becoming some of my least favorite in the league. I’m not saying all braves fans because some have smart things to say but some of these people who legitimately think that Teheran is a #1/2 pitcher are greatly mistaken. He’s a solid 3 for sure but he’s no top of the rotation arm
It’s funny how all you clowns hate on the Braves and Julio in particular. Pull up nonsense numbers to discredit the success he is having. You are not talking a Tommy Hanson (R.I.P.) or Jurrjens drop in velocity. He is having success if you would actually watch the games instead of reading nonsense analytics because his location down in the zone has improved. And as always when he gets the ball up he gets into trouble.
I don’t care how hard somebody throws if you can’t locate down and away you will not have success at the MLB level plain and simple.
Maddux or Glavine never blew anybody away but their movement and location were impeccable.
By no means do I put Teheran in the class of Kershaw, Felix, Bumgartner or guys like that but at 25 there is no reason that he can’t reach the potential that he had just 2 yrs ago. The guy had 1 bad year last year it’s unbelievable how stat geeks will write somebody off. After his 1st 3 yrs every stat geek on here would kicked Glavine to the curb but here almost 30 yrs later and he is in the hall of fame. If you ever hear him tell it it’s because of his location and it takes time to develop that.
Now I am not ssying that the Braves will run off next year and win the World Series but there is absolutely no reason we can’t make a couple moves and be competitive. One of which would not be moving Teheran unless the name Moncada or Sanchez or Sano is coming back. I don’t see that so IMO there is nothing to talk about. The moves I see would be this. We are not going to move Markakis unless his power comes back which I don’t see happening. I would go into next offseason with Dansby playin SS. I would resign Beckham and platoon him and Jace at 2B until Ozzie shows he is ready. Freeman stays at 1st and I would trade for Plouffe to play 3rd until Rio is ready.
I would keep Mallex in LF, Inciarte in CF and Nick in RF. Then I would open the wallet to sign Wieters.
I believe with the rotation being so young it would be important to pick up a veteran SP. I would go for Gio Gonzalez if his option wasn’t picked up. That sets us up with
1. Teheran
2. Gio
3. Wisler
4. Folty
5. Blair
Bullpen
1. Vizcaino RH
2. Paco LH
3. Hunter LH
4. Withrow RH
5. ManBan LH
6. Simmons RH
7. Perez RH
LINE UP
1. Markakis RF
2. Beckham/Jace 2B
3. Freeman 1B
4. Wieters C
5. Inciarte CF
6. Plouffe 3B
7. Dansby SS
8. Pitcher
9. Mallex LF
Bench
1. Flowers C
2. Jace/ Beckham UI
3. Garcia UI
4. Frenchy OF
5. Kelly Johnson
Lmfao at Teheran ahead of gio, anyways both of gio’s options will be picked up so no point. It’s a terrible rotation, a terrible lineup and an ok bullpen. That is not a competitive team which is fine it’s how they should be going about it. Weiters makes 0 sense. What if albies busts? More holes to fill, they have to get more upper level prospects. They need a kris bryant type to pair with freeman. I like albies and Swanson but they aren’t huge bats. Their value is where they play on d. If they could get any big bat prospect they should do it. Shit a package centered around ian happ from the cubs for vizcaino makes sense. Like happ, mckinney and pierce johnson. That’s 3 for sure big leaguers.
If you are talking about a big bat from the Cubs, look no farther than Wilson Contreras. I don’t believe in some of the other Cubs prospects because of this or that, but there is almost nothing you can possibly come up with to knock Contreras.
He is by far and away the C I would target in a trade with Cubs.
I just don’t understand why the Braves would deal such a young top of rotation stud like Tehran if the fact is he is wayyyyyy over rated and look no further than the hard facts! ERA in NL? Hard hit balls? Loss of velocity?
It’s like trying to sell damaged goods for top prospects.
I’m tired of reading every Brave fan every day trying to get the world for this over rated pitcher?
If Texas even considered dealing Gallo for Tehran that GM would be launched!
Enough braves fans! Keep the stiff.
Pretty much. Gallo’s ceiling is too high for a number 3 starter. After Gallo I think anyone else in the minors is fine, I’m on the fence about Brinson. They are looking for bats so no tate either. Yohander mendez, travis demiritte and Andy Ibanez should peak their interest.
Have you ever watched him pitch ????? I am so tired of hearing how his velocity is down but not hearing how his command is up. And what hard hit balls ?? To the SS or 3B that can’t make a play to a ball hit right at them or to the statue in RF that can’t track s ball to either side of him anymore. And I am sorry but A.J. Is the worst defensive catcher I ever seen and again if you ever watched the games you could see the difference in Julio when he catches him opposed to Flowers.
Like I said I don’t put Julio in the top tier no. 1 SP but I feel he is a very good no. 2 but how many teams out there have that bona fide ace ?
It just kills me that Arrieta had so many bad to mediocre years before he figured it out but yet Julo had 1 bad year and he is terrible ???? What a joke stat geeks and their forums. Gotta love the entertainment.
Steeler, settle down buddy. It will be ok.
Yes I watched him give up 3 homers today, as I predicted with my “stat geek” stuff.
Oh yes. Kershaw sucks in several playoff games means he is not a ACE. Right? Lol
Max Scherzer has been giving up homers all year long. I think he is among the leaders in homers given up. That doesn’t mean he isn’t good
How are stats a joke? I don’t think I value anyone’s opinion who doesn’t believe in MATH… Go Braves though…
It’s not that I don’t believe in Stats it’s just these sabermetric stats have so many variables that are not taken into consideration.
I never said Julio is the staff ace of the future and I never said he was going to the hall of fame. But watching him pitch I see that his number 1 problem is his lack of focus. When he gets lazy and leaves the ball up he gets into trouble. His number 2 problem is A.J. They never seem to be on the same page.
My argument stays the same if Arrieta can figure it out why can’t Teheran ?
If you are not going to get a top package of prospects I don’t wanna trade him. Coppy has to be overwhelmed. Until then his contract + 30+starts + 200 IP + potential says keep him and see if he can figure it out.
Which is more likely, a lack of focus or his control isnt as amazing as you keep insisting it is. I’ll take the latter.
I never said his control is amazing I said it was improved from last year. If he had amazing control he would be a true number 1. Not only do y’all pull
his command isn’t up
Three runs in five! This guy is a mid rotation starter and truth be told in the AL East he is getting clobbered and what that does to a young players psyche can sometimes be a career downfall. Yes he has good to decent stuff, yes he is young, yes his contract is good but shit how many pitchers are young with good stuff and a reasonable contract? Thst doesn’t mean you give up a ton to the Braces who obviously if they are in rebuild mode would not be trying to trade a young piece who steeper nation proclaims is a very good number two! Maybe on Braces he’s a number two but in the Al more like mid to backend of rotation starter.
A weak free agent class and a lack of hitting prospects in the system should change Copollela’s mind. This team is going to move into a taxpayer funded stadium in a year and have a last place team. They did a great job with the Swanson trade, but have struck out with too many other moves. They need an injection of hitters like right now.
Pablo Sandoval for Julio Teheran
Only if Braves kick in $27M, haha.
I am so thankful that we have so many amateur GM’s out there that no exactly what it would take to make this team great and that team great. I will sleep better knowing you guys are out there.A deal that this amateur GM thinks could happen is the Braves part with Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino,and cash sent to the Rangers in a package deal for Joey Gallo and Ronald Guzman. Call me crazy…I don’t care.
Not crazy but insane. Yes
Because I think this is an argument I think I can win easily…
Chesteraarthur, you seem to know a lot about baseball and also seem to hate the Braves b/c of some fans on this website, I would totally understand, lol. But one thing that caught my eye was that you said Rich Hill has more value and is more talented than Teheran. And also, what teams fan are you?
You said above that how can we expect the Braves to go to the top after 2-3 more years.. We can’t but why do we have hopes? Because Mets pitching will decline at least a little bit after 3 seasons (especially when they are at ages like 26-30 (bc pitchers decline near age 30, its evident). And Nationals? THeir OF will be Harper and __, Infield is also a question past Trea Turner, and pitching will be lead by Scherzer, Strasburg and Giolito-so that’s not a problem, but the rest of the team can be. If you have suggestions on players I’m missing out, I’d love to see them. And Marlins? I like the Marlins, and I like their core, so I won’t sya stuff about them b/c they might still be able to all play well in 2-3 years. And I like the future of the Phillies too. So IMO, it’ll be a 2-3 team race in the NL East, but I really don’t think we’re going to be last like you think. And also, I know we lack some positions in the minors like 3B or OF, and that’s why we want to trade for those positions. I don’t think we’ll get a crazy trade for Teheran like the MIller trade, if anybody does, they’re crazy. But its not out of the realm of possibility that a team trades and elite OF prospect and another lower prospect for Tehran. He’s arguably the best arm/control available (in the long run and the contract/durability helps) and if not the best arm, a top 3 arm for sure.
ATL has a tough road bc the Mets pitching isn’t going anywhere, WAS has a solid rotation, and even PHL moved up their re-build timeline. It was called the weakest division the last couple of years, but now it is one of the strongest.
Agreed, Atlanta does have a rough road. But you can never predict injuries and such that can derail rotations and such. 18 months ago would we have guessed Tim Linecum would have struggled to find a spot, Harvey would have his problems, Miller would have struggled with a rebuilt team? Not that I wish it on anyone, any rival, but TJs happen, hard regressions happen, and prospects are not what expected.
Regardless of how long it takes for Braves to be competitive, I will be excited to see the NL East become more than a joke.
Yes, pitchers are volatile. They take longer to develop and have a higher chance of injury and attrition rate in general…and the braves have pretty much staked this rebuild on them. Don’t you see the problem here?
There are 3 teams in the division that look to have more talent for at least the next few years and I think it could easily be argued that Philly has more talent in the pipeline than does ATL.
Rich Hill is better than Tehran. Not more value (contract/age). I’m a cubs fan. And I said the braves wont contend NEXT year.
oh.. I agree with that, we won’t contend next year, not sure how many Braves fans think we will (I’m not on this site that often).
But Hill is better than Teheran? Back that how without using 12 starts of Hill as the only thing to back your claim. He’s a 36 year old lefty who has supposedly been in the majors for 12 years and pitched less innings than Teheran in 4 years. He’s never pitched more than 200 innings, he pitched 195 back in 2007 and after and before that year, he’s never gone over the 100 innings threshold. He has an ERA nearly 1 run more than Teheran and has literally been in the minors or injured for the past 5 years. I will continue my reasoning on why Teheran is better after I hear your reasoning(s).
He isn’t going to give you any reasonings because it’s not true. He talks about Teherans one bad year (2015), but fails to mention Hills 9 bad years and then says he is better. For some reason he doesn’t like the Braves and takes any chance he sees to insult them and their players. In 12 years, Hill doesn’t even have as many innings as Teheran in 6 years, but he is better. Dude has a consistent track record of being mediocre besides the last 2 years. I think he is saying that just because he is a Cubs fan and Rich Hill was once a Cub. That’s the only reasonable explanation I can think of. He is being a comedian
I mean, if I wasn’t a Braves fan, I wouldn’t like the Braves based on the homerism of half the fans I’ve seen on forums..
but I agree that his claims are pretty bad with nothing to back.
Ha, that’s funny. Rich Hill has only 1 season over 30 starts at age 27! His best year! Barely a sub 4 era that season and gave up 27 homers. Yeah he is way better than Teheran’s career era 3.38, 31gs/yr..
Haha is this a joke? Chester you could be a comedian
Teheran and a prospect to Red Sox for Henry Owens, Noé Ramirez and cash.
Ya know, the more you say it, the more it still will never happen.
Teheran for Brinson & Mitch Moreland + cash
Atlanta needs catching and obviously offense. I like Swilhart, but defense is shaky. Can’t think of any other major league ready catching prospects.
Gary Sanchez
A day doesn’t go by without a Shelby Miller mention. Are you guys in love with him or what?
One of the most craziest trades in forever.
How about Justin upton for Teheran and a of.
I think Teheran to Boston for LF Swihart, LHP Owens and RHP Noe Ramirez
That’s easy: Teheran to Cubs for Baez, Jimenez, Caratini and Cease.
Contreras would be my hope.
“[The Braves] would need a major league hitter of comparable age and quality in return.”
Jackie Bradley Jr. + PTBNL for Julio Teheran
For the Red Sox:
– Mookie Betts slides back in CF
– Brock Holt plays RF
– Julio Teheran upgrades the rotation
Recall that the Red Sox recently optioned Joe Kelly.
For the Braves
– they get an MLB as requested (ie. not prospects)
– the Braves OF is total junk right now,
– the Braves don’t have any real solid OF prospects
– the Braves could actually use a guy JBJ
Salary wise, I don’t think it’s a problem for either team.
Since the Braves management is asking for a lateral trade (ie. no prospects), it makes it hard to find a good match. And in addition, they also want a player of comparable age and quality to Teheran.
I think this is one of the few instances where it possibly makes sense for both sides.
no…Bradely’s been good for like 2 months, and please don’t go saying that Bradely was good last year or in 2014 like some RS fans argue..
I agreed to Teheran and “the neck” for judge and bmac… What’s the hold up johns???
I will second that motion. Haha Bmac should have been given another 4 year pact, but that is the hindsight of seeing CB flop on ATL.
Something was up with CB he didn’t even get a real chance. Probably a PR nightmare in his closet. Judge and BMac go right into the middle 5/6 slots. A single might equal an rbi with the likes of smith Albies and inciarte burning up the diamond ahead of them.
Man I hope it was something, because letting Brian walk with the intentions of that kid taking over blew up in the teams face. Just goes to show that not all prospects turn out.