It’s not often we see significant players swapped in June — read this if you don’t believe me — but the White Sox made an early strike on Saturday to acquire James Shields from the Padres. Chicago gave up controllable righty Erik Johnson and young infielder Fernando Tatis Jr., with San Diego keeping about $31MM of the $58MM owed to Shields.
From Chicago’s perspective, Shields represents a dependable — if diminished — rotation piece who can help keep the team in contention this year. He’ll also likely be around for the next two seasons to come, though Shields has the right to opt out at year end. While there’s little reason to believe that he’s still a top-of-the-line starter, Shields is incredibly durable, still reasonably effective, and quite fairly priced with the discount included in this swap. He certainly deepens a rotation that has some questions at the back end.
If the White Sox felt that Johnson was a viable option to play that sort of role, they surely wouldn’t have parted with him. The 26-year-old has failed to stick in four stints at the major league level, so he’s had his chances. On the other hand, he’s been much more effective at Triple-A — even if he hasn’t maintained a promising strikeout rate bump from a year ago — and none of those four stints included more than six appearances. With just 89 days of service coming into the year, the Cal-Berkeley product could be a long-term asset for the Padres; on the other hand, he’ll also soon be out of options. As Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs explains, Johnson has a “mediocre” arsenal but still carries a bit of upside. Tatis, meanwhile, is a quality prospect in Longenhagen’s evaluation, though there are some limits to his ceiling and he remains a long ways from the majors.
So, MLBTR readers, did it make sense for the Sox to give up that package and take on that much salary? Were the Pads wise to act quickly to save some cash and get something back for Shields? Vote here (link for mobile app users):
How Do You Evaluate The James Shields Trade?
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Win-Win: both teams did what they should have 35% (3,755)
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ChiSox did well here; what were the Pads thinking?! 30% (3,282)
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Nice haul for San Diego; Shields wasn't worth it for Chicago 20% (2,177)
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Lose-Lose: the trade came too early for both teams 15% (1,570)
Total votes: 10,784
I like how the Padres took the now and later approach. They got a young ML ready player and a young player further away. Tatis was one of my favorite july 2nd pieces last year behind Vlad jr and Starling Heredia- I like what he has to offer.
The White Sox on the otherhand got a decent starter at a discounted rate in a year where starters will cost a fortune due to the lack of quality options.
Erik Johnson is nothing more than a 5th starter/long reliever at this stage. He was given multiple opportunities to stick in the rotation and failed every time. he gave up 5 homers in just over 11 innings this season at the mlb level, and just doesn’t project to have much value.
Tatis is a 17 year old prospect who has never played a minor league game. This is a low risk move by the White Sox, who are only on the hook for a reasonable sum for the next two seasons.
Do I expect Shields to be great? No, but you could do worse than him as a #4 starter who can eat innings
You were horribly, terribly, stupidly wrong.
The link connects to the older Fernando Tatis
Darn auto linker. Should’ve seen that one coming, though.
EDIT: actually, I don’t think he’s in the b-ref database yet.
Probably because he had yet to appear in an official minor league game for any of the White Sox affiliates, including their lowest levels, the AZL (Arizona League) White Sox and the DSL (Dominican Summer League) White Sox.
Right.
I also confirmed this information on the White Sox own website at MLB.com. where Fernando Tatis, Jr. did have a link on the transaction page involving his trade for James Shields. The link confirms that he had no stats for any minor league game since he was signed by the White Sox on July 2, 2015 as a 16-year old international player from the Dominican Republic.
Where’s the link from the app?
I’ll add that.
I love this from the Chi Sox end, Shields is a quality addition to their rotation, Johnson does not look like sticking and the Padres have loads of this type of pitcher. Tatis will need to be a heck of a player to justify this trade.
Tatis is a heck of a player. And the White Sox made this the worst trade in history.
this aged well
Link bringing me to the Harvey poll
And I found it
I haven’t found it and the link still goes to the old Harvey poll from 2 weeks ago.
I did find it, but the link still needs fixing. Thanks.
I messed up when I added it. Should be good now.
My fault, fixed it.
It’s a great deal for the Sox. Not only is he a durable mid-rotation arm w/ playoff experience under team control for the next possibly 3 and a half years, his low remaining salary makes him very movable if things don’t end up going their way.
Actually most of the Padres money is given this year so he’ll still have a lot after the sox want to move him.
What are you talking about? The Padres are paying $11M each year in ’17 and ’18. Plus somewhere around $10-11M this year. So basically they are paying about a third of the money they owe the Sox. So after this season if Shields doesn’t opt out, the Sox will owe him 2yr/$22M. Counting the $2M buyout.
this aged well
Good deal for sox, honestly thought the pads would get more
I agree.
This didn’t age well.
Smart for the Padres. Shields gave up a home run to Bartolo Colon that’s just pathetic. He’s a 4th starter at best. Saving the 27m was a good idea
A lose- lose deal that wouldn’t have been necessary if the Padres ownership hadn’t written Preller a blank check.
I believe the White Sox panicked and made a move just for the sake of making a move. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make. I can’t see the reasoning the Chicago front office used thinking Shields would be a useful pitcher in their band box of a ballpark? I see a 13 man staff in the near future for the Sox.
How did they panic?? They know they have a need for a backend SP next season and Shields fits that profile. So not only did they really give anything up player wise, they only have to pay him 2yr/$22M after this season. That’s cheap for any kind of SP that can give you innings like Shields will keeping you in a majority of games.
You were right!
Shields will eat innings for the Sox and that’s the best you can hope for from a guy at the back end of the rotation. Sounds like Johnson grades out as a AAAA pitcher, which having seen plenty of those in the Pirates system during the 2000s, the Sox made the right move. With the discount, Shields isn’t horribly overpaid for his production level compared to what it would cost to get a 4th starter in free agency.
From the Padres perspective, at least they got rid of some money and got something in return. They can probably flip Tatis down the line.
Random question but why do so many teams wait until July usually to do trades? It would be nice to have that extra month of a player if they traded in June
Teams generally have a better idea of where their club is in relation to their division and WC and also have a better feel for their weaknesses
Most teams can’t commit to being sellers in early June even if their team sucks because it would have a negative impact on their fan base and ticket sales to throw in the towel so early.
I thought If SD ate that much salary, that their return would be bigger/better. Chicago gets 4 years of Shields right at 30m?? Only gave up a bullpen arm and 1 possible star? Id say CHW did just fine.
Shields can opt out if he and his agent think that is a better strategy.
Sox do not get 4 years of Shields they get the rest of the year only if he uses the opt out in the contract though that is doubtful otherwise they get him for 2017 and 2018
Honestly I’m not sure how to read this. Padres didn’t want Shields and considered him a “disappointment”. They got rid of him but have to eat 31m in salary to do so. However in return for eating that salary they got two players.
BUT on the other side of the coin… They shed some salary and got two players in the process.
Honestly… I’m really not sure if this is a good or bad deal but I guess all that matters is that the teams are happy.
I think this trade was fine, I just don’t think it ends up making the sox much better.
I agree with you. I just don’t see Chicago being willing to trade Anderson or Fullmer, so the best they could do was a place holder. Shields in that ballpark is potential disaster. He will probably do ok, but that won’t be enough to make a difference.
Padres didn’t make out great but they do save 27 million dollars. Johnson doesn’t look like much – a #5 starter maybe. Tatis is at least five years away, I’m guessing.
Shields isn’t great but he’s a league-average starter who has pitched well in the AL Central in the recent past. He racks up innings and that will help the Sox, who don’t have a deep bullpen. His career BA/OB/SLG against at the Cell is 265/327/424, so that’s not terrible.
The biggest red flags with Shields are his down-tick in velocity the last two seasons and the big jump in his walk rate. Hes gone from about 2 BB/9 to 3.6 in San Diego. His K rates have remained the same (actually, 2015 was his highest K rate ever, but he was also facing pitchers for the first time). It would seem that he’s nibbling with diminished stuff, so when he has to come in he’s getting hurt over the plate. Lower velocity could be either an injury, a mechanical issue or just normal aging; he has a lot of innings on his arm. Still, I don’t see any reason why he can’t be an average innings-soaker for the Sox for the rest of the season.
Love this trade for SD if Shields opts out at the end of the year. If he stays healthy (and he’s been one of the most durable SPs in the game) then he could be the top pitcher on the free agent market, virtually guaranteeing an overpay. 3 years $60m seems easily in reach despite his age (being traded during the season he won’t have to worry about being tied to a draft pick like in 2014). There’s also a chance that Shields’ opt out is exercised for non-financial reasons (desire to be on a contending team, desire to pitch on the west coast, etc.)
If Shields opts-in and the Padres are on the hook for exponentially more money then the deal looks much better for CWS. Its an interesting angle for both sides to gamble on.
He’s not opting out. And he’s not “easily getting 3/60”.
He’s worth about 11m, what the sox are paying him.
After seeing what lesser pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Jeff Samardzija got in free agency last offseason and knowing that this offseason’s free agent pitching market is much weaker than last years, the door is definitely open for discussion about it. But in the end, I think Shields will probably not opt out.
Why would you trade your best pitcher
LOL this is so funny to look at 5 years later.
I’m looking at it a few months after you and crying!