There are approximately 40 regular-season games remaining for all 30 Major League Baseball teams, which makes now a good time to examine which rookies have made the greatest impacts so far this year. There are dozens of first-year players who have impressed to certain degrees, but we’ll narrow it down to five spots in each league.
It’s a laborious process to go through all the candidates in full detail, so we’ll take each league in turn, beginning with the top contenders from the American League:
1.) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers:
With the Tigers mired in mediocrity last summer, outgoing general manager Dave Dombrowski made the wise decision to sell off established veterans on expiring contracts in hopes of landing long-term building blocks. One of those deals, to send outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets, is paying massive dividends this year. As the centerpiece of their return for Cespedes, the Tigers received right-hander Michael Fulmer, whom Baseball America, ESPN’s Keith Law and MLB.com each rated as a top 50 prospect entering last season.
Fulmer, 23, debuted with the Tigers on April 29 and has since produced like one of the game’s elite starters, let alone rookies. Through his first 120 big league innings (19 starts), Fulmer has recorded an AL-leading 2.25 ERA, which he backs with an excellent ground-ball rate (50.6 percent) and a K-BB percentage (15.0) that’s above the AL average of 12.9. In his latest outing, Fulmer went on the road to throw a complete game shutout against the formidable Rangers, striking out nine and walking none. Earlier this summer, Fulmer ran up the second-longest scoreless streak by a rookie over the past 45 years. At 33 1/3 frames, Fulmer fell just shy of Fernando Valenzuela’s 35-inning record that has stood since 1981.
Driving Fulmer’s success is his well-rounded repertoire, including a four-seam fastball that averages 95 mph and a pair of tremendous offspeed pitches. According to PitchFX, all have been among the highest-quality offerings of their kind this year. ERA estimators such as FIP (3.45), xFIP (3.69) and SIERA (3.84) call for a decline in run prevention for a pitcher with a .248 BABIP, but there’s little question that Fulmer has been the preeminent rookie in his league.
Continue reading…
2.) Tyler Naquin, OF, Indians:
After going 15th overall in the 2012 draft, the 25-year-old Naquin took longer than expected to reach the Majors. Injuries, including a broken left hand in 2014, helped slow the Texas A&M standout as he trekked through the minors. But Naquin has made up for lost time this season and helped lift a first-place Indians team that has been without one of its most integral cogs, left fielder Michael Brantley, for nearly the entire campaign.
Naquin, the Indians’ everyday center fielder has hit .315/.377/.591 with 13 home runs in 259 plate appearances. Among batters with at least 250 PAs, only Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, David Ortiz and Daniel Murphy have exceeded Naquin’s wRC+ of 158. And, once again using the 250-PA threshold, just five hitters have bettered his .276 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average). Naquin was never anywhere close to that powerful in the minors, but as Fangraphs’ August Fagerstrom detailed last month, lowering his hands has likely helped lead to a breakout. There are some concerns with Naquin, including a propensity for striking out (30.9 percent) and a BABIP (.429) that won’t hold up, but that doesn’t change what he’s already accomplished.
Shifting away from the offensive side, among 49 center fielders who have logged at least 200 innings this year, Naquin’s -13 mark in Defensive Runs Saved is the second-worst, and Ultimate Zone Rating doesn’t paint a much prettier picture. The numbers suggest that Naquin could stand to improve in the field, then, but few have been more imposing at the plate this season.
3.) Max Kepler, OF, Twins:
The German-born Kepler joined the Twins organization as a 16-year-old in 2009 for $800K, which was then a record-setting signing bonus for a European player. Now 22, Kepler has repaid the Twins with a .259/.342/.502 line and an AL rookie-leading 15 homers in 299 trips to the plate this season. Plus, to once again cite Fagerstrom, Kepler has shown off keen pitch recognition skills — he’s in select company as a hitter who has fared nicely against fastballs, sliders, changeups and curveballs. On the other side, Kepler has held his own in right field. His DRS (+2) is above average — tied with a slew of other right fielders — though UZR (minus-1.1) and UZR/150 (minus-2.0) aren’t as favorable.
4.) Chris Devenski, RP, Astros:
Devenski is the most anonymous player on this list, but the righty’s output in his first taste of Major League action has been worthy of recognition. Devenski went in the 25th round of the 2011 draft to the White Sox, who traded him to Houston a year later in a package for right-hander Brett Myers. Never an exciting prospect, the 25-year-old has begun his Astros career with a 2.30 ERA and 18.1 K-BB percentage across 82 1/3 innings. The majority of those innings (57 2/3) have come as a reliever, and Devenski has been a lights-out option in that role with 53 strikeouts against eight walks. While mostly relying on a fastball and changeup, Devenski has recorded a sparkling 1.56 ERA out of the bullpen. Those two pitches have been extremely valuable for Devenski this year, per PitchFX, with each ranking in the top four among qualified relievers.
5.) Edwin Diaz, RP, Mariners:
Given that Diaz has only thrown 34 innings this season, his inclusion on this list might raise eyebrows. But Diaz, a 2012 third-round pick who entered 2016 as a starter, has simply been too electric to ignore since his promotion in early June. Among AL relievers that have tossed at least 30 frames in 2016, the 22-year-old righty ranks 11th in ERA (1.85), third in both K-BB percentage (37.1) and contact rate (61.4 percent), and first in swinging-strike rate (20.2 percent). Not surprisingly, then, Diaz has converted eight straight saves since taking over as the Mariners’ closer at the outset of August.
Fellow reliever Joaquin Benoit, whom the Mariners dealt to Toronto last month, helped Diaz develop his slider while with the M’s, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote in early July. “The development of his slider has really been the difference,” Mariners manager Scott Servais told Divish. “Everybody knows he throws hard, we knew that, we knew were getting that. But the development of the secondary pitch has been huge.” Against Diaz’s slider, hitters have slashed .105/.164/.123 this year. The sample size isn’t huge (154 pitches), but for the time being, Diaz and the Mariners can thank Benoit for a rather generous parting gift.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Earlier in the year, Mazara would’ve been a lock for this list, maybe even #1 but his average and other stats have been plummeting.
Mazara .282/.336/.419 with 13 HR, still should be top 5. Seems like Fulmer should run away with the award though, barring a complete collapse in his last few starts.
Agreed. Fulmer has been incredible
I agree he should still be top 5, I didn’t necessarily say he shouldn’t. I was just saying that a couple months ago he was hitting around .320 but then scuffled a bit but seems to be coming around once again, at least somewhat. Also, after hitting 9 HR’s in his first 44 games, he only has 4 in his 65 games after.
For sure Mazara should be on the list. Thought I’d see White Sox INF Tim Anderson listed too. He ranks fairly high when it comes to WAR among rookies last I checked.
Anderson’s top 10 in Rookie WAR but his .273/.295/.426 line and an almost 11-1 K/BB ratio will keep him out of contention. Both races are pretty much over though with Fulmer and Seager running away with the awards.
I don’t think many people are going to vote for Mazara because hes hitting .237 with a .635 OPS since June 11th, and isn’t even at 1 WAR
Cheslor Cuthbert
Yes – Cuthbert should be mentioned in the discussion.
There are quite a few outstanding AL rookies this year but I agree, Cuthbert should be at least given some attention. He looks very solid to me both in the field and at the plate. I think in a more normal year he might have won ROY, but I am sure that is not in the cards for him in 2016.
If we look back at this group in a few years I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cuthbert one of the two of three most established players. He sure does not look like flash in the pan.
I expect the Royals will either trade off Moose (which I would hate) or shift Cuthbert to the OF next year to keep his bat in the line-up. It is nice to have a roster with such problems.
Max Kepler will have 3k hits and a HOF career before its all said and done. Sano and Buxton garnered all the hype, but the real diamond in the Twins system is Kepler. The kid is a future star.
And Red Sox fans are constantly accused of overvaluing prospects…
This guys saying it about one player however, a lot of sox fans say it about every prospect
Well a lot of there prospects have panned out as of late maybe not there pitchers
But some sox fans expect Travis, kopech, and guys rated below them to be stars, not the top rated guys
I heard a ton about how Buxton was gonna be incredible too, but I see your point, JFisnasty.
And Jose Berrios will get past his struggles and go on to win 300 games and pitch the Twins to six World Series titles before retiring in 2036.
Right. And Camilo Pascual (#17) is my uncle.
Bold prediction, but could be true. Hard to predict the longevity of a career which is what often will determine getting to 3000 hits.
What Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge?
They’ve only been playing for like a week…
They’ve been up for like a week… That’s not enough to contend for rookie of the year…
They’ll have exhausted their rookie status by the end of the year and they’ll probably each have 20 home runs. Judge should have multiple outfield assists and Sanchez should have as many caught stealings as he does home runs, they both have plus plus arms.
They haven’t even put up big HR totals in the minors and you think they’re just going to smack 20 HRs in 7 weeks in the majors. Talk about delusional. I hope you’re trolling.
And Tyler Austin will hit 15 homers and steal 20 bases while hitting .350.
20 HRs each? Are you kidding? Why, because they play for the Yankees?
Delusional, huh? I find it amusing when people go from one wrong prediction to another and never have any doubt in their absolute certainty that they are right. Sanchez is extremely likely to hit 20 HRs. Call that delusional if you want. To me, it seems highly probable.
Easy to say it seems probable now. Where was your prediction? And where is Judge’s 20 HRs?
They’ll have to beat out future HOF Benintendi.
That’s a joke right? If it’s not, I can’t stand Sox fans who do this with everyone. It’s ridiculous.
They have each played less then 20 games…
Sanchez should be in the back back end of the discussion. But, no way he would win it only playing what will b a total of 2ish months. Same with Benintendi, no way he wins it against a larger sample size
Guys not listed who should at least get consideration but not win are Blake Snell, Joe Biagini, Nomar Mazara, Hyun-Soo Kim, Ryan Dull and Cheslor Cuthbert.
Snell wouldn’t put up enough innings, Biagini/Dull just isn’t top 5, as simple as that.
Mazara just hasn’t been good for like 2 months now
Kim has 14 RBI in 250 PA, as much as RBI is a bad stat, “pile up” stats still count in awards.
Cheslor might get a vote or two, same with Snell/Mazara
Kim’s definitely lacking a little pop in his bat, but he’d be 4th in the AL in OBP if he had enough at-bats to qualify, that’s pretty impressive. That said, Fulmer and Naquin are the clear top-two at this point.
How does Dylan Bundy get completely ignored in this conversation? That’s not to say he should be at the top of the list, but to be left out completely is a little odd.
Because he’s spent 90% of the season as a bullpen arm and had mixed results as a starter. Heck, with Mychal Givens there he’s not even the best rookie pitcher in Baltimore.
I do not think Bundy even has rookie status anymore
I thought the same thing and had to look it up. Surprisingly he’s only pitched 1 & 2/3 innings before this season. Guys just been perpetually hurt.
Biagini is a middle releiver and Dull is half of the setup duo on a bad team, neither really should get any consideration. Snell, Cuthbert and Mazara seem legit though and Kim won’t get enough games in to be thought of but how well he’s performed so far is pretty remarkable.
Think this is between Fulmer and Nyquin unless both struggle down the stretch, but Kepler would be the one I’d bet on having the best career. He seems to only be scratching the surface of his potential.
Naquin, not NYQUIN.
How often do we see run away ROY races like the NL one this year?
If Diaz hadn’t of gotten hurt it wouldn’t have been such a no-brainier. I think Seager wins it either way, but there would at least have been something to debate.
As a Tiger fan, of course I think Fulmer should be ROY. But I do think it will come down to how these young guys finish, and if any of them can help carry their team to a playoff birth. A strong finish by Fulmer, playoffs or not, and he probably is the ROY. But stumbles just a bit, Naquin finishes strong and the Indians hold off my Tigers, and I think Naquin probably brings home the hardware. Should be interesting.
Hey brother man from across the lake. I agree. Naquin has been a wrecking ball crew the last two nights.
Month and a half to go. As
A Tribe fan, pitching wins in the playoffs and our starters are nicked up. Good race!
Has Cam Bedrosian exhausted his rookie status? If not he should be in the conversation. Definitely not the winner but honorable mention
It’s Nyquin, particularly after the past two nights.
Say it with me. Nay Quinn.
NOT Nigh Quin
Mazara leads rookies in RBI..
Fulmer’s to lose, Naquin’s to steal over these last 6 weeks.
I don’t see Fulmer losing it though